Writing

with S. Chang, R. Gupta, and S. Miller. (2019). "Does Financial Development Affect Income Inequality in the U.S. States?." Journal of Policy Modeling (Lead Article) 41 (6): 1043-1056. Article Link.

We examine the role of financial development on U.S. state-level income inequality in the 50 states from 1976 to 2011, using fixed-effects estimation. We find robust results whereby financial development linearly increases income inequality for the 50 states. When we divide 50 states into two separate groups of above-average and below-average inequality states than the cross-state average inequality, the effect of financial development on income inequality appears non-linear. When financial development improves, the effect increases at an increasing rate for above-average income-inequality states, whereas an inverted U-shaped relationship exists for below-average income-inequality states. 

(2019). "Young Democracies and Government Size: Evidence from South America." Journal of Economic Policy Reform 22 (4): 351-368. Article Link.

I use a sample of all South American young democracies during the 1970–2007 period and the results, based on dynamic panel time-series, suggest that those young democracies are associated with larger government debt. Furthermore, I test the hypothesis that the outgoing dictatorships of the day bequeathed the young democracies with large government debt. This hypothesis is not confirmed by the analysis. Lastly, there is no evidence that, as those democracies mature over time, government debt tends to decrease.

with C. Chisadza. (2019). "Economic Development and Democracy: The Modernisation Hypothesis in sub-Saharan Africa." The Social Science Journal 56 (2): 243-254. Article Link.

Our initial results using income per capita show a negative relationship between income per capita and democracy for sub-Saharan Africa between 1960 and 2010. However, when we use a composite measure for economic development by employing the principle component analysis on the indicators suggested by Lipset, we obtain positive and significant results for democracy.

with C. Chisadza. (2018). "Globalisation and Conflict: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa." International Development Policy | Revue internationale de politique de développement 10(1). Article Link.

Our results support Pinker’s (2011) theory that opening up borders and increasing global trade has increased the opportunity costs of conflict. We find that globalization, particularly social globalization, plays a significant role in reducing conflict in sub-Saharan Africa.

(2018). "Primary Education and Fertility Rates: Evidence from Southern Africa." Economics of Transition and Institutional Change 26(2): 283–302. Article Link.

I study whether primary school completion rates have played any role in total fertility rates in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) during the 1980–2009 period. The results, based on dynamic panel time-series, suggest that primary education is associated with lower fertility in the SADC.

(2015). "Determinants of Government and External Debt: Evidence from the Young Democracies of South America." Emerging Markets Finance and Trade 51(3): 463-472. Article Link.

I investigate the main determinants of government and external debt in the young democracies of South America between 1970 and 2007. The results, based on dynamic panel time-series, suggest that economic growth has significantly reduced the debt ratios in the region. Other candidates suggested by the literature—inflation, inequality, and constraints on the executive —do not present the expected or clear-cut estimates on government and external debt. 

with R. v. Eyden, and M. Seleteng. (2015). "Inflation and Economic Growth in the SADC: Some Panel Time-Series Evidence." South African Journal of Economics 83(3): 411-424. Article Link.

We investigate the role of inflation rates in determining economic growth in 15 sub-Saharan African countries, which are all members of the Southern African Development Community, between 1980 and 2009. The results, based on panel time-series, suggest that inflation has had a detrimental effect to growth in the community. 

(2014). Economic Growth and Inequality: Evidence from the Young Democracies of South America. International Symposia in Economic Theory and Econometrics. G. P. Kouretas and A. P. Papadopoulos, Emerald Group Publishing Limited. 23: 37-58. Article Link.

I investigate whether income growth has played any role on inequality in all nine young South American democracies during 1970-2007. The results, based on dynamic panel time-series, suggest that income growth has played a progressive role in reducing inequality. Moreover, the results suggest that this negative relationship is stronger in the 1990s and early 2000s, a period in which the continent achieved macroeconomic stabilisation, political consolidation and much improved economic performance. On the contrary, during the 1980s (the so-called "lost decade"), the negative income growth experienced by the continent at the time has hit the poor the hardest, which has consequently lead to an increase in inequality.

with R. Gupta, and L. Stander (2014). "Tax Evasion, Financial Development and Inflation: Theory and Empirical Evidence." Journal of Banking and Finance 41(April): 194-208. Article Link.

We provide a theoretical model that indicates that both a lower level of financial development and a higher level of inflation leads to a bigger shadow economy. These findings are empirically tested within a panel econometric framework, using data for 150 countries over the period 1980–2009. The results support the developed theoretical model.

with R. Gupta, and B. Simo-Kengne. (2013). "The Impact of House Prices on Consumption in South Africa: Evidence from Provincial-Level Panel VARs." Housing Studies 28(8): 1133-1154. Article Link.

We provide an empirical analysis of the role of house prices in determining the dynamic behavior of consumption in South Africa using a panel vector autoregression approach to provincial level panel data covering the period of 1996–2010. We find that the response of consumption to house prices shock is positive, but short-lived. In addition, we find that a positive shock to house price growth has a positive and significant effect on consumption, while the negative impact of a house price decrease causes an insignificant reduction in consumption. 

with R. v. Eyden, and M. Seleteng. (2013). "Nonlinearities in Inflation-Growth Nexus in the SADC Region: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Approach." Economic Modelling 30(January): 149-156. Article Link.

We use panel data for the period 1980–2008 to examine the inflation–growth nexus in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region and to endogenously determine the threshold level of inflation. We use the Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) method developed by González et al. (2005) to examine the non-linearities in the inflation–growth nexus. The findings reveal a threshold level of 18.9%, above which inflation is detrimental to economic growth.

(2012). "Democracy, Populism and Hyperinflation: Some Evidence from Latin America." Economics of Governance 13(4): 311-332. Article Link. 

I test for the populist view of inflation in South America during the period between 1970 and 2007. The results—based on panel time-series—confirm the prediction which suggests that recently elected governments coming into power after periods of political dictatorship, and which are faced with demand for redistribution, end up engaging in populist (or redistributive) policies, which tend to lead to high inflation and overall poor macroeconomic performance. 

(2012). "Inflacion y Crecimiento Economico: Evidencia con datos de panel para America del Sur." Revista Estudios Economicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Peru 23(Junio): 25-38. Article Link.

Se investiga el rol del comportamiento macroeconómico, principalmente en términos de tasas de inflación, como determinante del crecimiento económico en cuatro países de América del Sur que sufrieron episodios de hiperinflación en los años 1980 y principios de 1990: Argentina, Bolivia, Brasil y Perú. Los resultados empíricos, basados en la metodología de panel de series de tiempo para el periodo 1970 a 2007, confirman la evidencia que sugiere que inflaciones altas tienen un efecto perjudicial en el crecimiento económico.

(2012). "Financial Development and Economic Growth in Latin America: Is Schumpeter Right?" Journal of Policy Modeling 34(3): 341-355. Article Link.

I investigate the role of financial development in generating economic growth in four Latin American countries between 1980 and 2007. The results, based on panel time-series data, confirm the Schumpeterian prediction which suggests that finance authorizes the entrepreneur to invest in productive activities, and therefore to promote economic growth.

(2012). "Inflation and Economic Growth in Latin America: Some Panel Time-Series Evidence." Economic Modelling 29(2): 333-340. Article Link.

I investigate the role of macroeconomic performance, mainly in terms of rates of inflation, in determining economic growth in four Latin American countries which suffered hyperinflationary bursts in the 1980s and early 1990s. The data set covers the period between 1970 and 2007, and the results, based on panel time-series, confirm the anecdotal evidence which suggests that inflation has had a detrimental effect to growth in the region.

(2011). "Is Copacabana still the `Little Princess of the Sea'?" CES-Ifo Forum 12(1): 11-16. Article Link.

I show how some macroeconomic variables and indicators have been performing in Brazil since the 1980s. I argue that Brazil has come a long way since the convoluted 1980s and early 1990s, with a number of disruptive events happening before macroeconomic stabilization was achieved in 1994. Moreover, I argue forcibly that macroeconomic stabilization (and all the institutional framework that accompanies it), has been the pre-condition for increased economic openness and foreign direct investment, financial development, economic growth and much lower inequality.

(2011). "Debates on the Measurement of Global Poverty. Edited by Sudhir Anand, Paul Segal, and Joseph E. Stiglitz." The Developing Economies 49(2): 228-230. Article Link.

This book originates from a workshop at Columbia on methodological and empirical issues related to poverty analysis. The subject is of importance, particularly given the Millennium Development Goals. All in all, this book is a mixed bag: on one hand it contains some interesting papers on measurement issues and on poverty in different regions, and on the other it presents papers which are repetitive and, in many cases, vague.

(2011). "Inflation and Financial Development: Evidence from Brazil." Economic Modelling 28(1-2): 91-99. Article Link.

I examine the impact of inflation on financial development in Brazil, and the data available permit us to cover the period between 1985 and 2004. The results—based initially on time series and then on panel time series and panel data—suggest that inflation presented deleterious effects on financial development.

with B. James and P. Vaaler (2024). Chinese Investment, with or without an MoU?

We use panel data on Chinese investment in BRI countries and test whether the presence of a particular paragraph in some MoUs, with geopolitical connotations, plays a role in strengthening investment decisions in some countries, or not.

(2023). Macroeconomic Policy and Economic Growth in sub-Saharan Africa

I study the role of monetary and fiscal policies in sub-Saharan African countries, on total factor productivity (TFP). For that I use macroeconomic and institutional data, and the method is based on panel and panel time-series data. The objective is to further our understanding of the role of macroeconomic policies on growth, taking into account the legal origins and quality of institutions inherited, the political-regime characteristics and the structural changes taking place in Africa.

(2022). A Comparative Study of the Latin American and South African Macro-fiscal Policy Framework.

I study the macro-fiscal policy framework of South Africa and compare it with the one in Latin America. The data are essentially Latin American and South African macroeconomic data on variables such as price level, real GDP, exchange rates, and data on government debt and its components. I then construct the budget identity for the consolidated government in order to understand its effects on demand for real money.

(2022). Monetary Policy and Economic Growth in South Africa: A Unified Approach.

I study the role of monetary policy, including the slower and faster tightening of monetary policy in a developing country adopting inflation targeting, on total factor productivity (TFP). The data are South African macroeconomic data and the method is based on time series. 

(2014). Education and Fertility: Panel Time-Series Evidence from Southern Africa. Article Link. 

I investigate whether secondary school enrolment has played any role on total fertility rates in all fifteen countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) between 1980 and 2009. The evidence, based on panel time-series, robustly suggest that education has reduced fertility rates in the community. 

(2014). Democracy and Education: Evidence from the Southern African Development Community. Article Link.

I investigate whether democracy in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has had any effect on education during the 1980-2009 period. The results, based on panel time series, suggest that democracy, and the better governance that tends to be associated with it, has played an important role in terms of widening access to education in the community.

(2024). Macroeconomic Theory and Monetary Policy in SA. Business Day. Article Link.

It is gratifying to see macroeconomic theory trickling down to policy, but given human nature there is always the need to improve institutional frameworks and practices so that monetary policy does its job of keeping nominal interest rates and inflation low. 

(2021). South Africa has Rebased its Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The How and the Why. The Conversation Africa. Article Link.

Rebasing matters because of the structural transformation in an economy, inflation and technological progress. During the process of economic development, or of structural transformation, economies go through a process of urbanization, where more and more people live, study, work and produce goods and services in cities.