Research

Job Market Paper

Stuck in the Fields: How Rising Temperatures Deepen Gender Inequality in Rural India 

Abstract: The adverse effects of climate change on agriculture can be particularly detrimental to many landless female laborers who depend on it for their livelihoods. This study examines the long-run effects of temperature rises on the gendered sectoral reallocation of labor in rural areas of India. Using a district-level panel dataset spanning 30 years (1987–2018), I show that increasing long-term temperatures are associated with men shifting to non-agricultural sectors, while women remain trapped in agriculture and work at lower wages. These effects are most pronounced in districts with a high share of landless female laborers (belonging to the backward Scheduled Caste community) at baseline, where a 1 degree C increase in long-term average temperatures is associated with a 34% rise in the female-to-male employment ratio in agriculture. Supporting empirical evidence suggests declines in agricultural wages and strong substitution effects among men within households, but not among women. Rising temperatures are also linked to declining female rural-urban migration, which further restricts women’s exit from agriculture. Additional evidence from qualitative fieldwork highlights that restrictive gender and social norms related to job suitability and mobility impose high costs of transition on women and limit their sectoral reallocation. Overall, the findings highlight how climate change is interacting with existing regressive social institutions and amplifying gender inequalities in developing countries.


Working Papers

Scorching Heat and Shrinking Horizons: The Impact of Rising Temperatures on Marriages and Migration in Rural India  

(with Bruno Martorano and Melissa Siegel)

Reject & Resubmit at The World Bank Economic Review

Abstract: The impacts of climate change can be particularly adverse for women in developing countries, and more so due to the presence of regressive gendered customs and norms in these countries. In this study, we provide novel evidence on how the custom of dowry shapes the long-term impacts of climate change on women in rural India. We examine how increasing temperatures due to climate change are influencing marriage-related female rural-rural and rural-urban migration in India. We find that a 1 degree C temperature increase is associated with a 27% decline in rural-urban and a 13.6% decline in rural-rural female migration. The declining effects are concentrated in districts in northern states where dowry customs are historically prevalent. Supporting evidence suggests that decreasing agricultural yields from rising temperatures is an underlying mechanism, reducing resources to finance dowry. Furthermore, we find that the declines in female migration are driven by the northern districts with poor access to credit at the baseline, as it constrains agricultural adaptation and limits borrowing during marriage years.


Publications

Mukherjee, M. and Fransen, S. (2024). Exploring migration decision-making and agricultural adaptation in the context of climate change: A systematic review. World Development. Available here.


Works in Progress


Reports


Linking Tourism, Local Environment and Waste Generation in Indian Himalayan States : Case-study of Uttarakhand (with Amrita Goldar and Diya Dasgupta)


Final Report, 2020, National Mission on Himalayan Studies (NMHS), Ministry of Environment, Forest & Climate Change (MoEF&CC), Government of India.