Research

Job Market Paper

Stuck in the Fields: How Rising Temperatures Deepen Gender Inequality in Rural India 

Draft coming soon

Abstract: This study highlights how rising temperatures due to climate change amplify gender inequality in developing countries. Using a rich district-level panel dataset from the Census (1991–2011) and household surveys (1987–2018), we examine how exogenous increases in long-term temperature levels in Indian districts impact gendered labor market outcomes in rural areas. The findings indicate that, in districts with a high share of poor, landless farmers belonging to backward caste groups, as agriculture becomes less productive and more volatile with increasing temperatures, men are transitioning from agriculture to non-agricultural sectors, primarily to the construction sector. In contrast, women stay put and are unable to shift sectors. Specifically, in these districts, a 1 degree C increase in long-term temperatures is associated with a 23.5% increase in the female-to-male employment ratio in the agricultural sector between 1991 and 2011. To interpret these results, we develop a theoretical framework and show how gender norms impose significant costs of transition on women and limit their sectoral mobility. The theoretical predictions are validated using both household surveys and qualitative fieldwork in rural India. The field interviews reveal that gender norms hinder women’s mobility through high commuting costs, such as the inability to travel alone and norms against riding bicycles or motorbikes. Poor public transport further exacerbates these challenges. Additionally, gender norms discourage women from entering certain non-agricultural occupations, such as construction. The interviews also uncover significant gender differences in perceptions. While women express a strong willingness to change sectors, men tend to underestimate their capabilities. We explore additional mechanisms that can reinforce this pattern, including declines in rural-urban marriage migration among women, which increases the likelihood of their engagement in agriculture. Finally, as women take on higher-valued agricultural tasks previously performed by men, their weak bargaining power results in lower wages and widens the gender wage gap.


Working Papers

Scorching Heat and Shrinking Horizons: The Impact of Rising Temperatures on Marriages and Migration in Rural India  

(with Bruno Martorano and Melissa Siegel)

Reject & Resubmit at The World Bank Economic Review

Abstract: The impacts of climate change can be particularly adverse for women in developing countries, and more so due to the presence of regressive gendered customs and norms in these countries. In this study, we provide novel evidence on how the custom of dowry shapes the long-term impacts of climate change on women in rural India. We examine how increasing temperatures due to climate change are influencing marriage-related female rural-rural and rural-urban migration in India. We find that a 1 degree C temperature increase is associated with a 27% decline in rural-urban and a 13.6% decline in rural-rural female migration. The declining effects are concentrated in districts in northern states where dowry customs are historically prevalent. Supporting evidence suggests that decreasing agricultural yields from rising temperatures is an underlying mechanism, reducing resources to finance dowry. Furthermore, we find that the declines in female migration are driven by the northern districts with poor access to credit at the baseline, as it constrains agricultural adaptation and limits borrowing during marriage years.


Publications

Mukherjee, M. and Fransen, S. (2024). Exploring migration decision-making and agricultural adaptation in the context of climate change: A systematic review. World Development. Available here.


Works in Progress


Reports


Linking Tourism, Local Environment and Waste Generation in Indian Himalayan States : Case-study of Uttarakhand (with Amrita Goldar and Diya Dasgupta)


Final Report, 2020, National Mission on Himalayan Studies (NMHS), Ministry of Environment, Forest & Climate Change (MoEF&CC), Government of India.