Research
My research predominantly employs causal econometric methods to explore pivotal questions in health and development economics. This includes my ongoing investigation into the effects of the largest cash transfer program in the developing world.
Below, you’ll find my publications, working papers.
Publications _____________________________________
2023 Opioids Ease My Pain: Early-life Malnutrition and Elderly Outcomes
Social Science & Medicine, 327, 115940.
Nominated for Award for scientific contributions on topics of equality and diversity
Selected for the Rare Voice in Economics conference 2022
Selected for Swiss National Bank Foundation Alumni conference 2021 in the Gerzensee (link media)
2021 Short‐term fetal nutritional stress and long‐term health: Child height
With SM Karimi, BB Little. American Journal of Human Biology 33 (6)
Selected as Editor’s choice article of Journal in 2021
Working and Under Review Papers_____________________________________
With H Ghoddusi.
Selected for the ERF 2024 Annual Conference
(The ERF conference is highly competitive, featuring two rounds of review, financial support for authors, and top speakers in development economics, such as Daron Acemoglu, James Robinson, and Jeffrey Sachs,… link).
Selected for European Public Choice 2024 in Vienna(link)
Selected for European commission knowledge for Policy 2023(link)
Selected for IIAS conference 2023 Doha. Presented on February 8 2023(link)
Abstract:
We study the distributional effect of one of the largest global subsidy reforms, which replaced more than 40 billion of USD annual energy subsidies with universal cash transfers in Iran. Using a novel identification strategy, we find a significant redistribution effect that has not been documented in previous studies. The reform led to an increase in expenditures for the bottom 70\% and a decrease for the top 20\%. Lower deciles experience greater expenditure growth, as large as 30\% growth in the bottom 10\%. The Gini index also decreased by 14 percent. Most importantly, our findings show that transfers are the primary factor in reducing inequality, with the reform's impacts reversing as the fixed lump-sum cash transfers diminish over time due to inflation in the country. We estimate that one USD daily cash transfer to each individual, instead of energy subsidy, leads to an 8 percent decrease in the Gini Index. These results inform policy debates on energy policy and universal basic income (UBI).
2024 Outside of Safety Net: Evidence from Largest Subsidy Reform in Developing World
Working in progress
Selected for university of Tehran policy making think thank (link media)
Abstract:
Although it is often suggested that low-income households be compensated for the adverse effects of energy subsidy reforms through cash transfers, there is still a lack of empirical evidence supporting their role. This paper utilizes diverse datasets from the largest of these reforms, the significant 2010 reform in Iran, to examine the role of cash transfers in protecting households. Using the Difference-in-Differences method on a panel of households, we initially document a 17% income gap for households not receiving cash assistance, resulting in an additional 12% falling below the daily poverty line of $5.50. Our analysis reveals that children in households without transfers, who have birthdays close to the time of the reform, exhibit reduced growth relative to the standard growth chart. We test and identify three key factors linking income shocks to declining child growth: nutritional deficits, changes in healthy behaviors that involve costs, like a shift to out-of-hospital childbirth, in contrast to cost-free services such as child vaccination, and increased household labor supply suggesting less parental or household member time for childcare. These findings underscore the importance of inclusive safety nets in energy subsidy reforms.
Publications in Persian Journals________________________________________
2020 The Lasting Effect of Iran Occupation in WWII on the Height of People in Tehran
Y Dadgar, M Noferesti, M Vesal, MA Mokhtari *. JPBUD 2020, 25(3): 117-143
2020 An assessment of the level, trend, and distribution of multidimensional poverty in Iran
Y Dadgar, M Noferesti, MA Mokhtari*. The Journal of Planning and Budgeting 2020, 25 (2):25-43
Winner of best article welfare article of year in Iran