Research

Job Market Paper _______________________________________________________________

Efficient Redistribution:Universal Basic Income and Human Capital Investment (link)
We study the medium- and long-term effects of a nationwide, UBI-like program launched in Iran in 2010. Using a difference-in-differences event study, we show that transfers substantially relaxed household credit constraints and reallocated children’s time from work to school. Consumption shifts toward education and essentials, with no effects on temptation goods or adult labor supply. A 10 percent increase in resources moves 1–2 per 100 into school and, five years later, significantly raises literacy among exposed cohorts and the broader population. We provide the first causal evidence that a universal basic transfer reduces child labor and increases literacy at scale.

Working and Under Review Papers ______________________________________________

Fueling Inequality: A Novel Estimate from Large-Scale Reforms (link)

Published: Journal of Enviromental Economics and Management (JEEM)

with Hamed Ghoddusi
Recent estimates suggest that eliminating fossil fuel subsidies could prevent 1.6 million premature deaths annually by reducing air pollution, while also addressing the unequal distribution of resources. How unequal are the benefits of these subsidies? Using a longitudinal dataset of Iranian household expenditures (1984--2019) across three major subsidy reforms, and linking it to additional datasets to account for confounding factors and mechanisms, this study estimates the inequality-reducing impact of replacing subsidies with cash transfers. We find that reallocating USD 1 per capita per day from fuel subsidies to cash transfers reduces the Gini coefficient of expenditure by 8\%. These findings underscore the redistributive potential of such reforms and their role in fostering more equitable and sustainable policy design.

- - Accepted and Presented at the ERF 2024 Annual Conference (The ERF conference is highly competitive, featuring two rounds of review, financial support for authors, and keynote speakers in development economics, such as Daron Acemoglu, James Robinson, and Jeffrey Sachs,… link).
  - Accepted for European Public Choice 2024 in Vienna
  - Accepted and presented in European Commission knowledge for Policy 2023(link)
  - Accepted and presented in IIAS conference 2023 Doha (link)

The Vital Role of Cash Transfers: Lessons from the Largest Energy Subsidy Reform in the Developing World (link)
I show that the exclusion of low-income households from cash transfers during Iran’s energy subsidy reform negatively impacted the nutrition and height of their infants, compared to those who received cash. The greater the exposure to this exclusion in the first year of life, the larger the gap in infant height.
- - Accepted in the Seventh International Conference international conference on Iran’s Economy, at Hamad Bin Khalifa University (HBKU) in Doha, Qatar, in November 2024.
  - Selected for university of Tehran policy making think thank 2022 (link media)