Working papers
1. Rural Roads and Their Impact on Urban Centres: Evidence from Indian Cities and Towns
( Submitted as a working paper)
Abstract: This study examines how rural roads built under the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY) influenced nearby urban centres across 3,200 subdistricts in India between 1999 and 2013. Using a difference-in-differences approach, this study examines how improved intra-regional connectivity impacts population, employment, and nighttime lights in the closest towns and cities. The findings show that expanded rural road infrastructure led to a 6% increase in urban non-farm employment and a modest 0.07% rise in population. This suggests that better connectivity encourages commuting from rural to urban areas, without triggering large-scale rural-urban migration. Night-time lights increased in newly connected rural regions but declined in neighbouring urban centres, highlighting a possible redistribution of activity. However, the analysis also cautions that night lights may be a weak proxy for urban economic activity and population in the Indian context. These findings highlight the importance of integrating rural connectivity projects with urban employment strategies in developing economies, offering valuable insights for transport policy design in India.
2. Transportation Cost Reductions and the Distribution of Economic Activity: Evidence from Indian Cities and Villages (Under Review)
Abstract: This study examines how reductions in transportation costs driven by improvements in transportation infrastructure have influenced the distribution of economic activity across villages, towns, and cities in India from 1998 to 2013. To address the potential endogeneity of infrastructure upgrades, I use a combination of propensity score matching and a difference-in-differences approach on the matched sample. The analysis focuses on the role of proximity to upgraded highways, assuming that regions closer to these highways benefit from greater reductions in transportation costs relative to regions closer to other non-upgraded highways. Results show that regions near upgraded highways have employment rates that are 10% higher than those near non-upgraded highways. Importantly, the initial market size influences these outcomes: larger areas near upgraded highways tend to attract higher economic activity, suggesting that these reductions reinforce agglomeration economies, making larger regions even more attractive. Further, a heterogeneity analysis reveals some patterns of industrial sorting. Manufacturing industries are more likely to cluster along upgraded highways, while land-intensive industries are located less in these regions compared to regions near other national highways.
3. Industry Agglomeration in a Developing Economy: Evidence from India, Amrit Amirapu, Malavika Thirumalai Ananthakrishnan, Alex Klein ( Working Paper)
Abstract: This paper examines the strength of agglomeration economies in shaping industrial co-agglomeration in India during the post-liberalisation period. Using granular data from the 2005 Economic Census, we examine the relative importance of two Marshallian channels of agglomeration economies (i.e., input-output linkages and labour market pooling) in determining patterns of industrial concentration, after accounting for natural advantage-driven coagglomeration in India. Employing instrumental variables (based on U.S. industrial data) to address concerns about endogeneity and measurement error, we estimate very large effects for agglomeration economies relative to natural advantages. Our effect sizes are particularly large for both channels relative to what the previous literature has found for advanced economies. Moreover, we find evidence of very distinct dynamics at different geographic scales and for different industrial sectors. We find input-output linkages are more influential at the district level, while labour market pooling is more important at the town/village level. We also find that input-output linkages are far more important for manufacturing industries. Labour market pooling plays a more important role for service sector industries and at finer geographic scales. In contrast, natural advantages appear less influential, though this may reflect measurement challenges. Our study provides a detailed empirical assessment of coagglomeration patterns in a developing country, thus offering insights into the economic forces that shape spatial inequalities.
Ongoing projects
1. Understanding the Region size and the spatial distribution of Economic Activity
2. Insurgency, Violence, and Spatial Reorganisation of Economic Activities with Kaustubh Adhya
3. On Values and Censorship: An Empirical Assessment of Movies in India with Kaustubh Adhya
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