Blayac Thierry, Stéphan Maïté (2021) - Are retrospective rail punctuality indicators useful? Evidence from users perceptions.
Transportation Research part A, Vol. 146, March 2021, pages 193-213.
This paper analyzes the perceptions of individuals on retrospective rail punctuality indicators to determine the most useful indicator according to socio-demographic characteristics, regular trip behavior variables, and railways transportation habits variables. In choice situations, individuals must choose between four punctuality indicators and an out option. Common punctuality indicators have been selected among those proposed by the authority for quality of service in transport, as well as a new punctuality indicator from the financial literature: Delay-at-Risk. Thus, via an online survey and econometric modeling, we show that respondents appreciate the usefulness of punctuality indicators for planning their long-distance rail trips. The uselfulness is reinforced by the fact that respondents employ several modes for regular trips and frequent train users. Moreover, they have already experienced missed appointments or connections. The risk attitude and prudence of respondents also play an important role but not totally in the expected direction. Lastly, Delay-at-Risk, although unknown and more complex in its formulation, exhibits some characteristics that are appreciated by users.
Keywords: Reliability; User perceptions; Rail transportation; Retrospective punctuality indicators; Information.
Blayac Thierry, Reymond Mathias, Stéphan Maïté (2020) - Can digital technologies induce behavioral changes in transportation habits? Evidence based on User Experiencce with the SmartMoov Application.
Revue d'économie industrielle, numéro spécial Economie numérique, Vol, 172, 4ème trimestre 2020, pages 179-215.
This study aims to assess behavioral changes in transportation habits induced by real-time and multimodal information provided by a mobile application, SmartMoov. The users of SmartMoov application (beta-testers) are registered on a voluntary basis. After three months of testing the mobile application in a living lab in Montpellier Méditerranée Métropole, we analyze beta-testers' feelings and changes in transportation behavior. Although the beta-testers represented a unique population segment, econometric modelling shows that they are sensitive to the information provided by the application and use it to modify their mobility behavior. They are more likely to change their route and departure time than transportation mode. While the average travel time and the safety margin affect overall mobility changes (i.e., mode, route, and departure time), there are additional factors that influence changes in the route and departure time. Specifically, a gender effect is documented in the context of departure time choice.
Keywords: Mobile application; Behavioral changes; Transportation habits; Living lab; Advanced traveler information system.
Beaud Mickaël, Blayac Thierry, Stéphan Maïté (2016) - The impact of travel time variability and travelers'risk attitudes on the values of time and reliability
Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Vol. 93, November 2016, pages 207-224.
In this paper, we derive implementable measures of travelers' willingness to pay to save travel time (VOT) and to improve the reliability (VOR) of a given trip. We set out a simple microeconomic model of transport mode choice in which each trip is fully characterized by its price and the statistical distribution of its random travel time, assuming that travelers have expected utility preferences over the latter. We then explore how the VOT and VOR affected by the statistical distribution of travel time and by travelers' preferences towards travel time variability.
Keywords: Value of travel time savings; Value of travel time reliability; Risk attitudes; Reliability proneness; Prudence; Cost benefit analysis of transport infrastructure projects.
Beaud Mickaël, Blayac Thierry, Stéphan Maïté (2012) - Value of Travel Time Reliability: Two Alternative Measures
Procedia-Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 54, 4 October 2012, pages 349-356.
This paper deals with the estimation of the willingness to pay for travel time reliability (VOR). We report on a stated preferences survey and we provide an econometric treatment of the data using a conditional logit model. Estimations are made according to two alternative approaches: The first uses a mean-variance approach and the second uses specific coefficients for the preferences function. Although the two approaches are significantly different, both yield quite similar estimations for the VOR.
Keywords: Value of Reliability; Stated preferences; Discrete choice model.
Blayac Thierry, Stéphan Maïté - Travel information and Mobility Behavior Changes - Lessons from a Survey in a French Metropolis
Recently, local public authorities have attempted to induce behavioral changes in urban mobility by decreasing the opportunity cost of information searching. For instance, they have promoted the development of smartphone applications that give multimodal and realtime travel information to users. Our study aims at assessing the impact of information provision on mobility behavior changes. We use sequential logit modelling to characterize the decision process of individuals, and identify the determinants of travel information use and mobility behavior changes that are linked to personal characteristics and travel attitudes. However, the main result is that only 27.5% of the individuals sampled use the information provided to adapt their mobility behavior, while a majority did it to make their private cars more efficient. Hence, our study highlights mixed effects of information provision on promoting sustainable urban mobility.
Keywords: Travel information; Mobility Behavior Changes; Transport Habits; Sustainable Urban Development.
Mbairadjim Moussa Alfred, Stéphan Maïté - Extreme risk measure for train delay time.
Following the financial literature on risk management, this paper introduces a new measure for train delay time in the probabilistic framawork, the Delay-at-Risk (DaR). The DaR predicts the maximum delay time that users could have during travel. The DaR is defined as quantile of train delay time assumed to be positive continuous random variables. Their closed-form expressions and empirical calibration are discussed successively in a non-parametric approach and under the assumptions of log-normal, log-Student and Weibull distributions. A test for the performance evaluation of the proposed method is presented. Finally, an empirical study based on French train delay time illustrates the effectiveness of our modeling approach and shows the interest for its practical application. This study highlights that the Weibull distribution is more adapted to our dataset producing a more accurate ahead-time forecast of train delay.
Keywords: Train delay; Extreme risk measure; Quantile function; Reliability.
Blayac Thierry, Stéphan Maïté - Value of reliability and cost-benefit analysis: Don't forget the Diffusion Effect!
This paper compares two transport infrastructure investment projects. One reduces the travel time, while the other improves travel time relaibility. using CBA, we show the conditions under which a reliability improvement project is more preferable than a travel time savings project for the users'point of view. We highlight a larger diffusion effect of the reliability improvement project. The total impact on consumer surplus depends on the values of VTTS and VOR as well as the number of users concerned. The theoretical analysis ans numerical example allow establishing some rules to inform publics decision-making on several transport investment projects.
Keywords: Value of travel time reliability; Value of travel time savngs; Cost-benefit analysis; Diffusion effect.