Research

RESEARCH OVERVIEW

My research investigates how the interplay of economic and social institutions shapes industrial strategies and public service delivery during shocks and disruptions. Focusing on micro-level interventions, I examine the relationship between systemic constraints, institutional inefficiencies, and their economic consequences. Methodologically, I combine experimental and quasi-experimental approaches with tools from empirical industrial organisation to identify institutional constraints and incentive misalignments. By integrating these empirical insights with economic theory, I develop and rigorously test solutions that address these institutional challenges and inform evidence-based policy design. 

Research Fields: Development, IO, Metrics. 

PUBLICATIONS

1.   Asymmetric Industrial Reorganisation and Adaptive Misallocation Post Disasters. 

Economics of Disasters and Climate Change (2025): 1-47. ( Journal Link ) ( Twitter Thread ) ( Bluesky Thread) (Pre-Print 2024)

Abstract: This paper presents evidence on how firms adapted following the 2005 Pakistan earthquake, with a particular focus on the vulnerabilities that drove differential impact and the expectation of minimal government aid shaping firm behavior. Using a difference-in-difference methodology on a nationally representative panel of 390 firms, this paper explores three key dimensions: the immediate disruption, short-term adaptation, and long-term resilience. The seismic shock damaged stock and reduced sales asymmetrically. Fragile intermediaries, firms with moderate capital-labor ratios, experienced pronounced declines in sales, while labor-intensive firms, besides highly capital intensive firms demonstrated greater resilience. Firms prioritised skilled labor retention, reducing non-production roles, increasing operational hours, and diversifying across markets. There was no evidence of innovation. Building on these findings, this paper develops a theoretical model showcasing how adaptive misallocation, where firms over-invest in short-term adaptive measures such as increased reliance on backup infrastructure, driven by expectations of minimal government aid, diverts resources away from productivity, erodes public-private trust, and ultimately undermines resilience.

WORKING PAPERS

1.   Building Adaptive and Effective Frontlines: Community Engagement in Resource-Constrained Emergencies.

        Timeline: June 2021 - November 2021 

          Setting: Lahore, Pakistan. 

2.    Enabling Swift Behaviour Change within Non-Spatial, Information-Dense Structures. 

           Timeline: June 2021 - September 2021 

           Setting: Lahore, Pakistan. 

WORK IN PROGRESS

1.     Public Goods Provision, Immunisation and Climate Change in the Indus Basin. 

( The complete list is available upon request. )