Research

RESEARCH OVERVIEW

I study how firms and communities adapt to economic disruptions and crises in environments shaped by weak institutions, financial frictions, and infrastructural constraints. My research investigates the mechanisms through which shocks reshape resource allocation, behaviour, and productivity in developing economies.

Across two interrelated streams, I examine: (i) how shock-induced reallocations generate persistent inefficiencies and misallocation at the firm level, and (ii) how behavioural frictions and network dynamics shape collective action during public health and environmental crises. These projects are unified by a focus on how institutional constraints condition responses that result in inefficiencies.

Methodologically, I combine experimental and quasi-experimental designs with tools from empirical industrial organisation and applied theory to unpack adjustments, identify misaligned incentives, and test behavioural models in dense urban contexts. This empirical foundation informs structural modeling and policy design, with the aim of generating scalable reforms that improve industrial productivity, strengthen public goods provision, and enhance state capacity—particularly in South Asia.

Research Fields: Development, Macro-Development, Industrial Organisation. 

Publications and Working Papers:

Misallocation and the Distributional Incidence of Natural and Technological Shocks:

1.   Mapping Efficiency Gradients in Electricity Distribution Systems.

First Draft: March, 2025

2.   The Architecture of Disaster-Induced Misallocation.

First Draft: February, 2025

3.  Asymmetric Industrial Reorganisation and Adaptive Misallocation Post Disasters. 

      Economics of Disasters and Climate Change (2025): 1-47. 

First Draft: May, 2024

      Journal Link | Twitter Thread | Ungated Version | VoxDev Blog

Abstract: This paper presents evidence on how firms adapted following the 2005 Pakistan earthquake, with a particular focus on the vulnerabilities that drove differential impact and the expectation of minimal government aid shaping firm behavior. Using a difference-in-difference methodology on a nationally representative panel of 390 firms, this paper explores three key dimensions: the immediate disruption, short-term adaptation, and long-term resilience. The seismic shock damaged stock and reduced sales asymmetrically. Fragile intermediaries, firms with moderate capital-labor ratios, experienced pronounced declines in sales, while labor-intensive firms, besides highly capital intensive firms demonstrated greater resilience. Firms prioritised skilled labor retention, reducing non-production roles, increasing operational hours, and diversifying across markets. There was no evidence of innovation. Building on these findings, this paper develops a theoretical model showcasing how adaptive misallocation, where firms over-invest in short-term adaptive measures such as increased reliance on backup infrastructure, driven by expectations of minimal government aid, diverts resources away from productivity, erodes public-private trust, and ultimately undermines resilience.

Behaviour Change During Shocks and Crises

1. Salience, Access, and the Diffusion of Public Good Norms: Evidence from Urban Networks. 

First Draft: October, 2021

 AEA RCT Registry | Twitter Thread

           Timeline: June 2021 - September 2021 

           Setting: Lahore, Pakistan. 

Project Brief

I develop a general threshold model of adoption in dense, information-rich urban networks, where individual compliance depends on private incentives and socially mediated influences. I test the framework in a large-scale randomised controlled trial demonstrating that lowering adoption costs and reinforcing salience at central network nodes shifts equilibrium compliance. The analysis identifies generalisable mechanisms through which adoption thresholds evolve in high-density networked environments.

2. Building Adaptive Frontlines for Health Technology Adoption: Experimental Evidence from an Urban Metropolis 

First Draft: January, 2022

      AEA RCT Registry  | Twitter Thread

         Timeline: June 2021 - November 2021 

          Setting: Lahore, Pakistan. 

Project Brief

This paper extends my threshold model of adoption to vaccine uptake in high-density urban networks, where financial costs are minimal but behavioural frictions (misinformation, mistrust, logistical barriers) dominate. In a randomised trial, I tested whether iterative community engagement could recalibrate adoption thresholds. Mobilisation significantly increased uptake, but intensification produced no further gains, highlighting how behavioral frictions interact with network structure and why adaptive — rather than maximal — mobilisation is key.

SELECTED WORK IN PROGRESS

1.     Withdrawing Authority: The State and Environmental Governance in Transition.