What we do:  

Building on a successful pilot project that used networks of prairie wetlands as model systems for studying the influence of climatic drivers on landscape habitat connectivity (click here for details), we expanded our focus by incorporating land cover/land use change projections in predicting habitat suitability and landscape connectivity for wetland-dependent species.  

In our previous work, we found that hydrologic modeling of wetland dynamics at the landscape scale is indispensable in approaching the question of wetland landscape connectivity. Although satellite remote sensing is useful for establishing upper and lower bounds on landscape wetness and resultant wetland network topology, there is simply not enough satellite imagery to capture the full range of seasonal and interannual variability exhibited by Great Plains wetland landscapes in response to climatic forcing. With this in mind, we refined Liu and Schwartz's Prairie Complex Hydrologic Model (PCHM) to simulate the number of water bodies within a given area on a monthly time step, which we then can use to examine relationships among precipitation, hydrological parameters, and wetland availability (i.e., density), which are then related to wetland-associated bird abundances. Overlaid on this is projected land cover/land use in various future land conversion scenarios, which will influence hydrological flows and animal dispersal between wetlands.  This will allow us to link connectivity to climate, land cover/land use, hydrology, and biology. This will be necessary knowledge for effective wildlife management in future landscapes and climates.

Postdoctoral workshop –

10-11 February 2015, Lubbock, TX

Invited presentations –

Bouchard, M., and C.A. Johnston. 2015. Land cover and land use change along Breeding Bird Survey routes in the Prairie Pothole Region. Land Use Mapping and Modeling Symposium, Brookings, SD, 13 July 2015. https://mymedia.sdstate.edu/learning/views/activity/email/emailedassets.html?orderid=2653_6cf2f690_0cf7_483d_893d_f965f90b30aa  

Heintzman, L.J., and N.E. McIntyre. 2017. Urban ecology in flyover country: quantifying the outsized role of rural urban growth on connectivity among wetlands in the Great Plains. Annual meeting of the U.S. Chapter of the International Association for Landscape Ecology, Baltimore, MD, 9-13 April 2017. 

Johnston, C. A.  2015. Land use trends in the eastern Dakotas. Land Use Mapping and Modeling Symposium, Brookings, SD, 13 July 2015.

https://mymedia.sdstate.edu/learning/views/activity/email/emailedassets.html?orderid=2652_cc0359c1_935a_4810_901d_c94643d3287f

McIntyre, N.E., S.D. Collins, L.J. Heintzman, R.R. Owens, N.N. Parikh, L.J. Ruiz, S.M. Starr, and N. van Gestel. 2015. Changes in connectivity among southern Great Plains wetlands over the past 30 years as a function of land-use change. Ninth World Congress of the International Association for Landscape Ecology, Portland, OR, 5-10 July 2015.

Wimberly, M. C., and D. Narem. 2015. Spatial analysis of grassland fragmentation in the western corn belt.  Land Use Mapping and Modeling Symposium, Brookings, SD, 13 July 2015. 

Contributed presentations –

Bouchard, M.A., and C.A. Johnston. 2015. Poster: How well does the USDA's Cropland Data Layer capture undisturbed lands? Ninth World Congress of the International Association for Landscape Ecology, Portland, OR, 5-10 July 2015.

Claassen, C.L., L.J. Heintzman, S.M. Starr, and N.E. McIntyre. 2016. Poster: Surface-water dynamics of salt playa in Texas over a 27-year span. Undergraduate Research Conference, Lubbock, TX, 29-30 March 2016.

Claassen, C.L., L.J. Heintzman, S.M. Starr, and N.E. McIntyre. 2016. Poster: Surface-water dynamics of salt playa in Texas over a 27-year span. Texas Tech University 7th Annual Biological Sciences Symposium, Lubbock, TX, 1 April 2016.

Gorzo, J., C. Wright. 2018. Mallard distribution and wetland network modularity in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR). Annual Meeting of the U.S. Chapter of the International Association for Landscape Ecology, Chicago, IL, 8-12 April 2018.

Gossett, K., and N.E. McIntyre. 2015. Poster: The effects of land use on sedimentation of playas in northwest Texas. Undergraduate Research Conference, Lubbock, TX, 31 March-1 April 2015.

Heintzman, L.J., and N.E. McIntyre. 2014.  Urbanization of playa wetlands in the Southern High Plains: Present and future patterns under four growth and climate scenarios. Texas Tech Annual Biological Sciences Symposium, Lubbock, TX, 28-29 March 2014.

Heintzman, L.J., and N.E. McIntyre. 2015. Poster: Urbanization of playa wetlands in the Southern High Plains: Present and future patterns under four growth and climate scenarios. Texas Tech Annual Biological Sciences Symposium, Lubbock, TX, 10-11 April 2015.  

Heintzman, L.J., and N.E. McIntyre. 2015. Poster: Urbanization of playa wetlands in the Southern High Plains: Present and future patterns under four growth and climate scenarios. World Congress of the International Association for Landscape Ecology, Portland, OR, 5-10 July 2015.

Heintzman, L.J., and N.E. McIntyre. 2018. Amphibian amblings amid arid-land agriculture: Wetland connectivity and species dispersal in the Great Plains using least-cost path and landscape resistance modelling. Annual Meeting of the U.S. Chapter of the International Association for Landscape Ecology, Chicago, IL 8-12 April 2018.

Heintzman, L.J., S.M. Starr, C.L. Claassen, L.S. Barbato, K.R. Mulligan, and N.E. McIntyre. 2016. Poster: Patterns of surface water dynamics in salt playas of Texas over a 27-year span. Annual Meeting of the U.S. Chapter of the International Association for Landscape Ecology, Asheville, NC, 4 April 2016. 

Heintzman, L.J., N. van Gestel, and N. McIntyre. 2019. Assessment of historical changes in hydrology as a function of surrounding surface well features in the Texas playa wetland region using Landsat imagery. Annual Meeting of the U.S. Chapter of the International Association for Landscape Ecology, Ft. Collins, CO, 7-10 April 2019. 

Johnston, C.A. 2015. Wetlands shrink while croplands expand near ethanol plants in the James River Valley. Society of Wetland Scientists Annual Meeting, Providence, RI, 1-4 June 2015. 

Johnston, C.A., and N.E. McIntyre. 2018. Croplands are nibbling away at Prairie Pothole wetlands. Annual Meeting of the U.S. Chapter of the International Association for Landscape Ecology, Chicago, IL, 8-12 April 2018.

Liu, G., F.W. Schwartz, C.K. Wright, and N.E. McIntyre. 2017. A multi-disciplinary approach to understanding the climate-driven variability of wetland landscape connectivity. Society of Wetland Scientists Annual Meeting, San Juan, Puerto Rico, 5-8 June 2017.

McIntyre, N.E., G. Liu, J. Gorzo, C.K. Wright, G.R. Guntenspergen, and F. Schwartz. 2019. Poster: Simulating the effects of climate variability on wetlands and wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region. Annual Meeting of the U.S. Chapter of the International Association for Landscape Ecology, Ft. Collins, CO, 7-10 April 2019.

Owens, R., and N.E. McIntyre. 2014. Changes in Texas playas over the past three decades. American Mathematical Society Spring Sectional Meeting, Lubbock, TX, 12 April 2014.

Owens, R., and N.E. McIntyre. 2014. Poster: Changes in Texas playas over the past three decades. Undergraduate Research Conference, Lubbock, TX, 14-17 April 2014.

Ryu, J.-H., and K. Hayhoe. 2015. Large-scale processes relevant to extreme hot and dry summer conditions in the South Central U.S.: Comparing observations with CMIP5 simulations. Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, CA. 

Ryu, J.-H., and K. Hayhoe.  2016. Assessing CMIP5 model ability to reproduce large-scale drivers of growing season drought across the South-Central U.S. Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, San Francisco, CA. 

Ryu, J.-H., and K. Hayhoe. 2017. Observed and CMIP5 modeled influence of large-scale circulation on summer precipitation and drought in the South-Central United States. Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, Seattle, WA.

Starr, S.M., L.J. Heintzman, L.S. Barbato, K.R. Mulligan, and N.E. McIntyre. 2016. Poster: Using remotely sensed imagery to document how land use drives turbidity of playa waters in Texas. Texas Tech Annual Biological Sciences Symposium, Lubbock, TX, 1 April 2016. Award: 1st place, graduate poster category.

Starr, S.M., L.J. Heintzman, L.S. Barbato, K.R. Mulligan, and N.E. McIntyre. 2016. Using remotely sensed imagery to document how land use drives turbidity of playa waters in Texas. Annual Meeting of the U.S. Chapter of the International Association for Landscape Ecology, Asheville, NC, 6 April 2016.

Starr, S.M., and N.E. McIntyre. 2018. Classifying historic land-use changes and effects on playa wetland inundation on the Southern High Plains using remote sensing techniques. Annual Meeting of the U.S. Chapter of the International Association for Landscape Ecology, Chicago, IL, 8-12 April 2018.

Publications –

Heintzman, L.J., and N.E. McIntyre. 2019. Quantifying the effects of projected urban growth on connectivity among wetlands in the Great Plains. Landscape and Urban Planning 186:1-12.

Heintzman, L.J., S.M. Starr, K.R. Mulligan, L.S. Barbato, and N.E. McIntyre. 2017. Surface-water dynamics of the salt lakes of western Texas reflect Ogallala Aquifer depletion. Wetlands 37(6):1055-1065. doi:10.1007/s13157-017-0940-2.

Johnston, C.A., and N.E McIntyre. 2019. Effects of cropland encroachment on prairie pothole wetlands: Numbers, density, size, shape, and structural connectivity. Landscape Ecology, doi:10.1007/s10980-019-00806-x. 

Liu, G., F.W. Schwartz, K.-H. Tseng, and C.K. Shum. 2015. Discharge and water-depth estimates for ungauged rivers: Combining hydrologic, hydraulic, and inverse modeling with stage and water-area measurements from satellites. Water Resources Research 51, doi:10.1002/2015WR016971.

Liu, G., F.W. Schwartz, C.K. Wright, and N.E. McIntyre. 2016. Characterizing the climate-driven collapses and expansions of wetland habitats with a fully integrated surface-subsurface hydrologic model. Wetlands 36(Suppl 2):287, doi:10.1007/s13157-016-0817-9.

McIntyre, N.E., G. Liu, J. Gorzo, C.K. Wright, G.R. Guntenspergen, and F. Schwartz. 2019. Simulating the effects of climate variability on waterbodies and wetland-dependent birds in the Prairie Pothole Region. Ecosphere 10(4):e02711, doi:10.1002/ecs2.2711.

McIntyre, N.E., S.D. Collins, L.J. Heintzman, S.M. Starr, and N. van Gestel. 2018. The challenge of assaying landscape connectivity in a changing world: A 27-year case study in the southern Great Plains (USA) playa network. Ecological Indicators 91:607-616.

Ryu, J.-H., and K. Hayhoe. 2017. Observed and CMIP5 modeled influence of large-scale circulation on summer precipitation and drought in the South-Central United States. Climate Dynamic 49(11-12):4293, doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3534-z.

Starr, S.M., L.J. Heintzman, K.R. Mulligan, L.S. Barbato, and N.E. McIntyre. 2016. Using remotely sensed imagery to document how land use drives turbidity of playa waters in Texas. Remote Sensing 8:192, doi:10.3390/rs8030192.

Swain, S., and K. Hayhoe. 2015. CMIP5 projected changes in spring and summer drought and wet conditions over North America. Climate Dynamics 44:2737-2750, doi:10.1007/s00382-014-2255-9.

Wimberly, M.C., D.M. Narem, P.J. Bauman, B.T. Carlson, and M.A. Ahlering. 2018. Grassland connectivity in fragmented agricultural landscapes of the north-central United States. Biological Conservation 217:121-130, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2017.10.031. 

Websites –

https://sites.google.com/view/macrosystems-biology1/home

https://sites.google.com/view/macrosystems-biology2/home

Disclaimer:  Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. 

Last updated:  16 June 2025