Publications
Publications
Working papers
Working papers
- Ahlfeldt, G. M., Carozzi, F. and Makovsky,L., (2023). A micro-geographic house price index for England and Wales. CEP occasional paper
We generate a mix-adjusted house price index for England and Wales from 2010 to 2020 at the level of lower-layer super output areas. To this end, we blend parametric and non-parametric estimation techniques and leverage on a matched Land Registry-Energy Performance Certificate data set. The key advantage of our index is that it combines full spatial coverage with high spatial detail.
Work-in-progress
Work-in-progress
I show that without persistent spatial planning and building permitting that does not reflect pent-up demand for housing, large cities in the Czech Republic would be even larger as well as overall economic output would be higher.
I propose a novel housing supply function explicitly depending on maximum allowed density of development, amount of zoned developable land and stringency of local permitting process. Additionally, the function incorporates the concept of "kinked supply function" resulting from dura- bility of housing capital. I then embed this function within a quantitative spatial model framework based on Ahlfeldt et al. (2015).
Analysing data from the Czech Republic during its transition to a market economy between 1991 and 2011 I find substantial variation in long-term housing supply price elasticities with inter quartile range spanning from 0.39 to 0.77. However, low supply price elasticities in many places are not caused by constraining planning, but rather low price levels of real estate.
Counterfactual analyses show combination of relaxation of stringent poli- cies by upzoning by 50%, or increasing developable densities by 50% and keeping permitting stringency at first pentile of national level would in- crease indirect utility by up to 4% along with re-allocation of up to 2.6% workforce generally from rural areas to cities (JEL J22, P25, R13, R23, R31, R52). SLIDES