With Vítor Possebom.

Abstract. We analyze heterogenous, nonlinear treatment effects in shift-share designs with exogenous shares. We employ a triangular model and correct for treatment endogeneity using a control function. Our tools identify four target parameters. Two of them capture the observable heterogeneity of treatment effects, while one summarizes this heterogeneity in a single measure. The last parameter analyzes counterfactual, policy-relevant treatment assignment mechanisms. We propose flexible parametric estimators for these parameters and apply them to reevaluate the impact of Chinese imports on U.S. manufacturing employment. Our results highlight substantial treatment effect heterogeneity, which is not captured by commonly used shift-share tools.

Versions: V1 (July, 2025) 

Presented at: São Paulo School of Economics - FGV.

With Leon Eliezer and Nícolas Goulart.

Abstract. This paper studies how unethical behavior in scientific research impacts trust in science. We run an information delivery experiment with high school students in Brazil, where we present them with a summary of a suspected fraud scandal in behavioral sciences. We divide treated subjects into a "fraud" arm, where they only learn about the fraud accusations, an "accountability" arm, where they learn about the investigation and punishment processes involved, and a control group that does not learn about the fraud scandal. This allows us to tell apart the effects of learning about cheating from the effects of learning about the accountability process. We find that treated students are less likely to update their personal beliefs according to scientific evidence and are less interested in science-related books. We find suggestive evidence that they are less willing to share scientific evidence. Results are driven by decreased trust in behavioral sciences, spilling over to authors who were not suspected of fraud.