"The International Dimension of Trend Inflation", with G. Ascari, Journal of International Economics, Vol. 148, March 2024.
Previous version titled: "The Inflation Rate Disconnect Puzzle: On The International Component of Trend Inflation and The Flattening of The Phillips Curve", December 2021.
"Macroeconomic Effects of The Gender Revolution", with D. Bergholt and F. Furlanetto. Working paper 2024/24, Norges Bank. VoxEU column here. Revise and resubmit (first round).
Abstract: U.S. labor market data exhibit a major, secular decline in the employment and wage gaps between males and females. In this paper, we identify the underlying, structural forces and quantify the spillover from this gender convergence to the broader macroeconomy. A novel time series model maps empirical trends in data into (aggregate and gender-specific) structural trends. Identification is achieved with restrictions derived from a neoclassical model with gender-specific labor. Empirically, we find that secular changes in female-specific labor productivity account for approximately one-third of economic growth in the postwar U.S. economy, in addition to most of the observed gender convergence.
"Decomposing US economic fluctuations: a trend-cycle approach", ECB Working Paper Series No 3138. Revise and resubmit (first round).
Abstract: This paper proposes a unified framework to study the permanent and transitory origins of USeconomic fluctuations. The model provides a reasonable account of the evolution of the economy in the post-war period and of the recent inflation episode. Overall, it constitutes a comprehensive framework to offer policy guidance and a flexible empirical counterpart to more heavily-parametrized structural models.
"Low frequency movements and SVAR analyses", with F. Canova. Draft available soon.
Abstract: This paper studies the consequences of using a deterministic steady state in Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models, when the data may display structural breaks, transitional dynamics or low-frequency fluctuations. We document substantial upward biases in the estimated coefficients, with distortions further amplified by the identification scheme. Allowing the steady state to be stochastic, however, reduces these distortions. To address this issue, we propose a spike-and-slab prior to differentiate between two alternative long-run specifications. Finally, we apply our empirical framework to revisit two well-known debates in macro: (i) the dynamics of hours in response to technology shocks; (ii) the habit formation hypothesis and the hump-shaped response of consumption to business cycle shocks.
"F.A.Q.: How to estimate R*? The role of survey-based expectations", with M. Ca' Zorzi, M. Ferrari Minesso, S. Manu.