Publications & Working Paper

• Disruption to schooling: Evidence from the Mt. Merapi volcano eruption on Java island, Indonesia, with Elghafiky Bhimardika, published in Economics of Education Review, 2025 (open access)

Volcanic eruptions occur frequently in Indonesia, especially on the densely populated island of Java; therefore, policies aimed at strengthening resilience in children’s education are important. We examined the causal impact of the 2010 Mt. Merapi eruption on children’s educational outcomes. Using the difference-in-difference (DiD) method, we found that the volcanic eruption reduced the likelihood of children being enrolled in school, and the negative impact worsened over time. The eruption increased the likelihood of children dropping out of school to work and reduced cognitive ability. The disruption operated through increased incidences of chronic illness, a higher number of children being forced into marriage, and an increased number of school closures in affected areas. Children from poor households were more likely to drop out of school. Enrollment rate, child labor, and early marriage did not differ between boys and girls, but boys experienced a larger cognitive score decline than girls. 

• Working paper version: https://doi.org/10.56506/JVVO2998 in 2024, published by the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) 

• Webinar recording of the working paper: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3jmS0IqnC0 

• Research funding: ADBI

• Using The Artificial Neural Network to Assess Bank Credit Risk: A Case Study of Indonesia, with Maximillian Hall, Dadang Muljawan, and Suprayogi. published in Applied Financial Economics, 2008 

[Thesis from undergraduate study]

Ever since the Asian Financial Crisis, concerns have arisen over whether policy-makers have sufficient tools to maintain financial stability. The ability to predict financial disturbances enables the authorities to take precautionary action to minimize their impact. In this context, the authorities may use any financial indicators which may accurately predict shifts in the quality of bank exposures. This article uses key macro-economic variables (i.e. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, the inflation rate, stock prices, exchange rates, and money in circulation) to predict the default rate of the Indonesian Islamic banks’ exposures. The default rates are forecasted using the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methodology, which incorporates the Bayesian Regularization technique. From the sensitivity analysis, it is shown that stock prices could be used as a leading indicator of future problems. 

• A Note on Tourism in Bali. in Tourism and sustainable regional development in Indonesia, with IGK Bendesa and Budy Resosudarmo. published book "Tourism and Sustainable Development" in 2017. UNPAD Press

In sum, this chapter can be concluded as follows. First, the global demand for tourism services seems likely to remain strong, with even more tourists expected to come to Bali, as its rank as a tourist destination place is expected to improve. Second, going by the number of hotel rooms in Bali, it seems that investment in Bali’s tourism sector remains strong. Up to now tourism has been an important economic sector in Bali and, with the right development strategies and maintenance of security and safety issues, it is expected that the sector will become even more important. Third, aside from the benefits, the development of tourist sector has created several problems as well. Extensive tourism development has created agricultural land shrinkage, thus having a negative impact on the welfare of rural people and threatening the sustainability of local culture. In some areas, tourism has also created traffic congestion, accumulation of garbage and destruction of the ecosystem.