Substitution and Complementarity of Daycare, Playgroup, and Kindergarten on Maternal Employment in Indonesia. R&R in Bulletin of Indonesian Economics Studies (BIES)
This paper examines the interrelationship among different types of Early Childhood Service (ECS), namely daycare, playgroup, and kindergarten, in supporting mother’s employment in Indonesia. To identify causal effects, this paper employs a continuous difference-in-difference approach. This study finds that the impact of daycare, playgroup, and kindergarten are positive on maternal employment, in particular daycare supports labour force participation and kindergarten facilitates transitions to more stable forms of employment. When quality of ECS varies, complementarity dominates, as parents combine multiple service types together to compensate service gaps. When focusing solely on high quality ECS, substitution effects emerge suggesting that these institutions offer overlapping functions affecting maternal employment.
Presented in:
2025 Australasian Development Economics Workshop at the University of New South Wales. Program link here
Women’s labor supply and decision making power in the household: Evidence from the Domestic Violence Law in Indonesia
Presented in:
2024 Australasian Development Economics Workshop at the Melbourne Institute, Melbourne University. Program link here
2024 Asian Economic Development Conference at the South Korea National University. Program link here
2024 Gender Norms and Law webinar by the International Economic Association and the World Bank. Program link here
Never asked, never chosen: Misperceived preferences and inequality in relocation decision
Event study of children dropping out from school to work
Disruption to schooling: Evidence from the Mt. Merapi volcano eruption on Java island, Indonesia, with Elghafiky Bhimardika, published in Economics of Education Review, 2025 (open access)
Volcanic eruptions occur frequently in Indonesia, especially on the densely populated island of Java; therefore, policies aimed at strengthening resilience in children’s education are important. We examined the causal impact of the 2010 Mt. Merapi eruption on children’s educational outcomes. Using the difference-in-difference (DiD) method, we found that the volcanic eruption reduced the likelihood of children being enrolled in school, and the negative impact worsened over time. The eruption increased the likelihood of children dropping out of school to work and reduced cognitive ability. The disruption operated through increased incidences of chronic illness, a higher number of children being forced into marriage, and an increased number of school closures in affected areas. Children from poor households were more likely to drop out of school. Enrollment rate, child labor, and early marriage did not differ between boys and girls, but boys experienced a larger cognitive score decline than girls.
Working paper version: https://doi.org/10.56506/JVVO2998 in 2024, published by the Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI)
Webinar recording of the working paper: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q3jmS0IqnC0
Research funding: ADBI
Neural Network diagram of the empirical model
Using The Artificial Neural Network to Assess Bank Credit Risk: A Case Study of Indonesia, with Maximillian Hall, Dadang Muljawan, and Suprayogi. published in Applied Financial Economics, 2008
[Thesis from undergraduate study]
Ever since the Asian Financial Crisis, concerns have arisen over whether policy-makers have sufficient tools to maintain financial stability. The ability to predict financial disturbances enables the authorities to take precautionary action to minimize their impact. In this context, the authorities may use any financial indicators which may accurately predict shifts in the quality of bank exposures. This article uses key macro-economic variables (i.e. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, the inflation rate, stock prices, exchange rates, and money in circulation) to predict the default rate of the Indonesian Islamic banks’ exposures. The default rates are forecasted using the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) methodology, which incorporates the Bayesian Regularization technique. From the sensitivity analysis, it is shown that stock prices could be used as a leading indicator of future problems.
Growth of foreign tourist arrivals in Bali
A Note on Tourism in Bali. in Tourism and sustainable regional development in Indonesia, with IGK Bendesa and Budy Resosudarmo. published book "Tourism and Sustainable Development" in 2017. UNPAD Press
In sum, this chapter can be concluded as follows. First, the global demand for tourism services seems likely to remain strong, with even more tourists expected to come to Bali, as its rank as a tourist destination place is expected to improve. Second, going by the number of hotel rooms in Bali, it seems that investment in Bali’s tourism sector remains strong. Up to now tourism has been an important economic sector in Bali and, with the right development strategies and maintenance of security and safety issues, it is expected that the sector will become even more important. Third, aside from the benefits, the development of tourist sector has created several problems as well. Extensive tourism development has created agricultural land shrinkage, thus having a negative impact on the welfare of rural people and threatening the sustainability of local culture. In some areas, tourism has also created traffic congestion, accumulation of garbage and destruction of the ecosystem.