Defense

Sector: Defense Technology / Small Unmanned Aerial Systems

Date: April 2026

Verdict: Speculative Buy at $6.46 | 12M probability-weighted target $7.28 | Cash floor $3.70/share

Abstract: The company's March 2026 press release highlighted a "perfect score" in one mission, but independent defense reporting confirmed Draganfly was not among the 11 vendors that won Phase 1 delivery orders. The stock fell 55% from its November peak while four sell-side analysts kept $12-20 targets unchanged. With $135M in cash against a $236M market cap, the market is paying only $101M for the actual business, and per-share cash of $3.70 limits downside before the next program phase opens in June 2026.

Sector: Defense / Unmanned Systems

Date: March 2026

Verdict: Watch at $86; entry-review band $55–$68

Abstract: Flagged avoid at $86 with FY2026E EV/EBITDA of 91x against a peer-anchored fair range of 65–80x. Strong fundamentals - 18.5% revenue growth, record $1.573B backlog, $13.7B opportunity pipeline - already discounted at current multiples, with the 2.2% operating margin trailing pure-play peer AVAV at ~8% as the gating variable for any re-rating. Maintained no-chase discipline  through the $1.2B secondary offering and US–Iran geopolitical overlay.