• Monsoon rainfall over South Asia is expected to increase in the future, even as monsoon circulation weakens. By contrast, past warm intervals were marked by both increased rainfall and enhanced circulation.

• We identify coherent monsoon physics across the mid-Pliocene, Last Interglacial, mid-Holocene, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5. They are thermodynamically driven by global warming and dynamically driven by meridional warming contrasts, albeit with varying magnitudes.

• Further prediction of South Asian summer monsoon by physics-based regression models using past information agrees well with climate model projections, underscoring the promising potential of past analogs in improving future  monsoon projections.

Reference:

He, L., Zhou, T., Zhun, G. Past warm intervals inform the future South Asian summer monsoon. Nature. 641, 653–659 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-025-08956-6

• Today, the spring persistent rainfall is a unique synoptic and climate phenomenon in East Asia, bringing about 600mm rainfall from March to May to southeastern China each year (~35% of annual rainfall). But its Cenozoic history and underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood.

• Here we show that the spring persistent rainfall in East Asia has emerged since the Miocene, whereas it previously flourished in North America during the Eocene, as revealed by climate models integrated with climate proxies, which was mainly driven by paleogeography.

• The uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and the westward drift of the Rocky Mountains have triggered a mid-latitude Rossby wave train since the Miocene, altering the position and intensity of the subtropical highs and thus rainfall patterns.

Reference:

He, L. et al. Cenozoic evolution of spring persistent rainfall in East Asia and North America driven by paleogeography. Commun. Earth Environ. 6, 1–8 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-025-02136-0

• The Mediterranean is expected to become drier in the future, likely modulated by the meridional SST gradient in the North Atlantic through its influence on the storm track.

• The Last Interglacial (~127 ka), with stronger summer and weaker winter insolation, featured a wetter Mediterranean climate particularly from February to April, accompanied by circulation changes resembling a negative phase of North Atlantic Oscillation.

• Standalone atmospheric model experiments with prescribed SSTs suggest that Indian Ocean cooling, rather than the North Atlantic meridional SST gradient, dominates the wetter Mediterranean by suppressing convection and initiating Rossby wave–mediated atmospheric teleconnections.

Reference:

He, L., Biasutti, M. & Kushnir, Y. Interglacial Mediterranean Wetting Dominated by Suppressed Indian Ocean Convection. (2026).  J. Climate,  39, 1033–1049, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-25-0157.1.