[Abstract] In 2014, a military junta seized power in Thailand, leading to an authoritarian regime. The political shift prompted the United States and the European Union to impose non-trade sanctions on Thailand. This paper studies the impact of these sanctions on Thailand's agricultural exports, using a comprehensive panel dataset of nearly 27.7 million exporter–importer–product–year observations at the HS 4-digit level from 2001 to 2019. Based on a gravity model framework, the analysis finds that the US sanctions result in a 20% decline in the aggregate exports of Thailand's agricultural products, while the EU sanctions have no impact. The declines are most pronounced in fish and processed vegetables, whereas rice, Thailand's primary agricultural export with a significant global market share, remains unaffected. This study sheds light on the economic implications of non-trade sanctions on international trade, offering valuable insights into the intersection of trade and geopolitics.

[Abstract] The exposure to extreme heat at workplaces may result in great risks to the involved labour. This issue becomes more prominent due to the global dispersion of labour-intensive work via trade. Here we combine a high-resolution climate model with an input–output model to investigate the exposure to extreme heat at work due to global trade. We find an 89% surge in trade-related labour exposure to extreme heat, escalating from 221.5 to 419.0 billion person-hours between 1995 and 2020. The lower-middle-income and low-income economies constituted 53.7% and 18.3% of global exposure, while only 5.7% and 1.0% in global labour compensation. In countries highly susceptible to extreme heat conditions, workers could spend up to about 50% of their working hours in heated conditions. Our findings uncover the disproportionate trade effects in redistributing global benefits and costs, which leads to the inequality in heat exposure between rich and poor economies. In striving for equitable and safe work conditions and social justice, workers vulnerable to heat extremes should be protected through the development of climate adaptation infrastructure in developing economies, especially those engaged in international trade.

[Abstract] In developing countries, certain specialty crops, highly consumed for their culture, often face increased vulnerability to price fluctuations along supply chains due to natural disasters and climate crises. Onions in India are a prime example. Leveraging monthly-level price data along the onion supply chain from March 2010 to April 2022, this study proposes a model that explores the price dynamics among onion arrivals, retail and wholesale prices, alongside rainfall anomalies across four major cities in India. Using the vector autoregressive model with exogenous variables (VAR-X) and impulse response analysis, our core finding reveals that rainfall anomalies have a significant yet contrasting effect on prices along the onion supply chain. This study also examines the price transmission dynamics between retail and wholesale prices, in conjunction with onion arrivals. Our findings contribute to shaping targeted pricing policies for policy- makers at various stages within the supply chain in agrarian economies.

[Abstract] Using a large-scale, individual-level administrative data set for 2008–2021, we document the inequality in farm program payments across all recipients in the U.S. By examining the relationship between within-county inequality and demographic characteristics of farmers in a county, we find that there is a positive association between the share of Black operators and within-county inequality. We also provide suggestive evidence that a substantial portion of racial and gender disparities in farm payments are associated with crop production characteristics. We then utilize name information in farm payment data to infer the race and gender of individual payees. The analysis using approximately 4.9 million payee-by-year observations and predicted race and gender information of those payees shows that payments are lower for producers who are Black, Hispanic, and female. Our study provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the equality of farm subsidy distribution covering most U.S. farm payment programs at a granular level over time. We also provide an empirical approach of utilizing name information from the administrative data that opens up more possibilities for racial and gender inequity research in agricultural economics.

[Abstract] This paper explores the evolution and resilience of global value chains (GVCs) in the agri-food sector, which intensified since the 1994 Uruguay Round Agreement. Using unique data from the FactSet database, along with Fortune 500 lists, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of approximately 17,500 agribusiness companies worldwide, examining over 150,000 supplier and customer connections from 2014 to 2022. Our findings reveal that large corporations, acting as central nodes, have increased their network centrality in GVCs, particularly through geographic diversification and a concentrated supply strategy. The study also indicates a correlation between the complexity and depth of firm-to-firm linkages and increased resilience, suggesting that firms with greater connectivity are less likely to exit the industry. This analysis not only contributes new insights into the structure and dynamics of agribusiness networks but also highlights the role of firm linkages in navigating recent disruptive global events such as the US-China Trade War, COVID-19 pandemic, extreme weather episodes, and geopolitical tensions.

[Abstract] With the spread of global agricultural value chains, international geopolitical risks often unintentionally trigger food insecurity in bystander countries. This study explores the impact of Russia's invasion of Ukraine on wheat supplies in South Africa and their trade diversification. Using port-level trade data, we show that South Africa, the main distribution route for South African wheat supplies, rapidly diversified its imports to mitigate geopolitical risk in the aftermath of the war. This sudden import diversification prevented the war-induced decline in average wheat imports, yet it led to an increase in the volatility of annual imports. More importantly, the import diversification contributed to more secure wheat supplies for southern African landlocked countries that were heavily reliant on border imports from South Africa. Our study highlights that sourcing diversification in a country with well-developed port infrastructure could be instrumental in stave off food insecurity in neighboring countries in times of geopolitical crises.  

[Abstract] Least-developed agrarian countries often face a paradoxical situation, where seemingly well-intentioned foreign aid has adverse effects on the broader economy. This study delves into the unintended consequences of official development assistance (ODA) on agricultural trade in recipient countries. Using the constructed data from 47 countries in the period of 2001--2018, we find that the ODA inflows from rich countries to recipient countries unexpectedly led to a decrease in agricultural exports. We uncover the mechanism that a larger inflow of ODA results in appreciation of the real exchange rate in recipient agrarian economies, particularly those with floating exchange rate regimes. Our results highlight that foreign aid can hamper the trade balance of the least-developed countries in the agricultural sector through the exchange rate channel. 

[Abstract] Low-and middle-income countries (LMICs) are experiencing disproportional increases in overweight or obesity rates. Parallel to this trend, many LMICs are witnessing significant growth in their participation in global food value chains (GFVCs). This paper aims to shed light on the public health implications of increasing participation in GFVCs. Leveraging macro- and micro-level data spanning 25 years, we study the relationship between countries’ participation in GFVCs and women’s overweight or obesity rates. We explore heterogeneous implications by disaggregating countries' participation into backward and forward linkages in GFVCs, as well as across rural and urban areas. We find that temporal increases in countries' participation in GFVCs are significantly associated with increasing overweight or obesity rates, primarily when countries participate in backward linkages and for urban populations. Participation in GFVCs involving forward linkages appears to have negligible implications, and the relationship between participation in GFVCs and obesity disappears for rural women. Furthermore, we find that an increase in countries’ participation in GFVCs is associated with an increase in consumption of energy-dense foods such as sugar, commonly linked with obesity. Our findings have important implications for informing public policies aimed at addressing the increasing obesity rates and associated economic and health burdens in LMICs.

[Abstract] Agri-food global value chains (GVCs) have redefined food production and trade, increasing efficiency and specialization while introducing new challenges. This paper explores policy-relevant challenges, focusing on the complexities of highly integrated global food supply chains. We highlight four critical areas for researchers and policymakers to consider: (i) enhancing supply chain resilience to mitigate disruptions from global shocks, (ii) promoting sustainability by integrating environmental responsibility into trade practices, (iii) addressing equity and distributional issues to ensure that the benefits of GVC participation are shared equitably, and (iv) balancing trade liberalization with domestic policy objectives to align global integration with national development goals. We also examine how technological advancements, such as digital infrastructure and innovative agricultural practices, can drive productivity and sustainability in agri-food GVCs. By identifying these essential areas for robust policy frameworks, we provide actionable insights for enhancing the resilience and sustainability of the global food system, which can inform policies that enhance the benefits of agri-food GVC integration while mitigating their risks. 

[Abstract] This study delves into the trade dynamics of Southeast Asian countries in response to the trade dispute between the United States (US) and the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Our analysis uncovers diverse patterns of trade diversion effects among eight Southeast Asian countries, revealing significant disparities in their reactions to this trade dispute. Specifically, we observe Viet Nam’s substantial export growth to both the US and the PRC, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and strategic relocations. Thailand, on the other hand, experiences positive effects on its exports to the US, potentially due to trade diversion, alongside diminishing exports to the PRC. Moreover, we find sector-specific trends, such as an upsurge in machinery exports from Viet Nam, Thailand, and Indonesia. In contrast, Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Singapore largely sustained their respective export levels to the US. Our findings highlight the importance of tailored trade policies that consider each Southeast Asian country’s unique industrial structure and degree of global value chain integration.

[Abstract] This paper explores the interplay between risk aversion, crop diversification, and food security. In poor agrarian countries, farmers’ risk aversion is inherently linked to their food security, yet empirical evidence regarding this relationship remains scarce. Using field experiment data from rural Ethiopia, I find that crop diversity is a mediating mechanism through which farmers’ risk aversion negatively affects food security. This finding highlights the importance of factoring in farmers’ risk preferences when formulating policies aimed at promoting crop diversification among impoverished smallholder farmers as a strategy to mitigate food insecurity.  

[Abstract] The COVID-19 pandemic had a profound impact on food security through supply chain disruptions caused by border closures. Our study concentrates on South Asia and examines the interplay between COVID-19, agri-food trade, and inflation using distinct monthly panel data spanning 2018 to 2021. Our findings demonstrate that the pandemic notably escalated food inflation in the region. Nevertheless, the robust interaction of agri-food trade with COVID-19 helped alleviate this effect. This underscores the significance of trade policies in controlling food inflation during the pandemic in South Asia.

[Abstract] This paper provides evidence on the effects of US and Chinese trade policies on the 2020 US presidential election. In response to a series of US tariffs imposed on Chinese goods, China imposed retaliatory tariffs, especially on US agricultural products, which largely affected Republican-leaning counties. The US government then subsidized US farmers by providing direct payments through the Market Facilitation Program (MFP) to mitigate the Chinese retaliatory tariffs. Using the universe of actual county-level MFP disbursement data, we document that MFP payments relative to the Chinese retaliatory tariff exposure were higher in solidly Republican counties, implying that the Trump administration allocated rents in exchange for political patronage. We also find that MFP payments outweighed the estimated impact of Chinese retaliatory tariffs and led to an increase in the Republican vote share in the 2020 presidential election. Finally, we uncover evidence that China's retaliatory trade policy and the corresponding US agricultural policy exacerbated political polarization in the US, especially the rural–urban divide.

[Abstract] This paper provides evidence on the job creation effects in response to the expansion of agricultural global value chains (AGVCs) in agrarian economies. By using a constructed panel data set of 140 countries for the period 1991urn:x-wiley:27692485:media:jaa234:jaa234-math-00012015, we find that a greater AGVC participation is associated with an increase in agricultural employment growth. We uncover evidence that the positive job creation impact is mainly driven by the processed food sector downstream of GVCs rather than the raw commodity sector upstream of GVCs. We find substantial heterogeneity of impacts that are more pronounced in lower-middle and high-income countries than in low-income countries.

[Abstract] We present an overview of the literature on agri-food value chains in low- and middle-income countries. Starting from farmers’ decision of whether to move away from subsistence agriculture to participate in agri-food value chains, we study the process whereby agricultural commodities make their way from the farm gate to the final consumer, documenting the procurement relationships that arise and the organization of markets at every step of the way. In each step, we take stock of the empirical evidence, critically assess the research so far, and offer a number of directions for future research. We further discuss the challenges and opportunities for global agri-food value chains.

[Abstract] Immigration enforcement often brings unintended consequences in domestic labor markets. Using the universe of administrative immigration data from 2005 to 2019, we uncover evidence that the E-Verify, an employment verification mandate, exacerbates the ongoing farm labor shortage in the US. Relying on the newly developed staggered difference-in-differences method, we find that the E-Verify policy restricts the employment of undocumented farmworkers. Our results indicate that domestic workers are not being replaced with declined undocumented workers wherein the inflow of the H-2A visa migrants still remains. Our finding advances a more nuanced picture of the US labor shortage driven by the E-Verify policy. This paper contributes to the rising policy debate on reforming nationwide E-Verify enactment and the H-2A visa program in the US.

[Abstract] Contract farming, wherein a processor contracts out the production of an agricultural commodity to a grower, is the first step toward more vertically coordinated—and thus more modern—agricultural value chains. As such, in principle contract farming is a necessary condition for the structural transformation of developing economies to occur. Yet contract farming is far from monolithic, and the institution takes on a variety of forms. In this article, we describe how the institution of contract farming varies in cross-sectional data covering 1,200 households across six regions of Madagascar, half of which are growers in contract farming agreements covering a dozen different crops. In this setting, participation in contract farming has been associated with increases in income, improvements in food security, and reductions in income variability. Given those presumed effects in this setting of participation in contract farming, we then look at the correlates in our data of participation in contract farming. as well as one’s willingness to pay to participate in contract farming as a grower in an attempt to better target policies aimed at encouraging participation in contract farming.

[Abstract] This paper investigates the impact of trade protectionism between the two largest economies on the structural transformation of a bystander developing country. Leveraging the US-China trade war episode, we uncover Vietnam’s structural transformation amid a harbinger of the end of globalization. Using Vietnam’s firm census and labor force survey data, we find that regions that were more exposed to the trade war shifted from informal agriculture to formal manufacturing. The trade war also led to increased firm formality and skill upgrading, accompanied by demand for skilled labor, particularly among females. Additionally, the trade war accelerated Vietnam’s urbanization through labor reallocation. Our research highlights that despite the challenges of trade protectionism, low-income countries can still achieve structural transformation.

We show how access to electricity drives structural transformation in India. Using village-level data from population and economic censuses, we document increases in manufacturing employment and decreases in agricultural employment following the opening of a coal-fired power plant near a village. We also show that these increases are driven by increases in employment in larger firms. Evidence suggests there are increases in both the availability and consistency of electricity. Importantly, we show that areas exposed to pollution from coal plants see decreases in access to electricity and decreases in population and literacy rates relative to less exposed areas, despite an increase in employment concentration in larger firms. These results suggest that access to electricity can be a driver of the structural transformation process, but that the resulting pollution can be an important mediator. 

[Abstract] A robust public health system during a pandemic is a common good. We argue that the ongoing coronavirus pandemic is a tragedy of the commons. During the early phases of the pandemic, Asia outperformed the US and Europe in managing it. The traditions and practices of rice farming in Asian countries are key to understanding the regional differences. Farming rice, unlike wheat, requires finding cooperative solutions to common goods problems such as irrigation. The history of rice cultivation in Asia implies that those societies have long had institutions that deal well with the commons through credible commitment, mutual monitoring, and sanctions. The descendants of Asian rice farmers commit themselves to a set of rules and are vigilant in monitoring their neighbors in common goods situations because they fear social rejection if they do not. Exploiting Asian immigration history in the US and the pandemic as a natural experiment, and using a patient-level CDC dataset, we show that Asian rice farming descendants are less likely to contract and/or die from the coronavirus even in the US. Then, using a Facebook survey, Google mobility data, and the US Census household pulse survey, we find that they were better able to resolve commons problems associated with the pandemic by getting vaccinated, wearing masks, and practicing social distancing.

[Abstract] This study explores the interplay between risk attitudes and trading network resilience of trading networks in small-scale rural farming communities in Vietnam. Leveraging survey data from farming households across three villages characterized by limited network resilience, we uncover evidence of a positive association between risk aversion and the number of engaged traders, while loss aversion exhibits a negative relationship. Conversely, in villages with fewer traders, we observe a positive correlation between procrastination and the number of trading links. These findings highlight the complex dynamics between behavioral factors and trading network resilience, underscoring the importance of considering village-specific dynamics when devising strategies to enhance network resilience in rural farming communities.