Share Markets are believing to be in consolidation from this level


Introduction: Market experts suggest that the current bottom of 17,000 on the Nifty50 index appears to be strong, and there is a possibility of consolidation from this level. If the index continues to bounce from this level, it could indicate an upside and activate bullish counts on point-and-figure charts up to 17,800–18,000. However, they are also cautioning that there are still some downside counts open to 16,500, so it would be wise to be aware of this possibility if the price falls below 17,000. Furthermore, they suggest that there are opportunities in the healthcare, pharmaceutical, defence, and banking sectors. They also said to note that some stocks in these sectors are performing well, outperforming the major indices, and displaying a strong trend.

Experts View about the current situation in Nifty 50 stocks: Market experts suggest that the Nifty index has reached a strong bottom at 17,000 based on various indicators. They note that the current uptrend is the fourth corrective move and has seen the same amount of upside so far, but has bounced from the previous demand area, indicating a strong bottom has been formed. Furthermore, they mentioned that the number of stocks above the 200-day moving average in the Nifty50 has increased in the last 15 days, and more than half of the stocks are in a bullish swing according to P&F charts. They suggest that if there is a follow-through action to the current bounce, it might then indicate an upside and, adding to it, activate bullish counts on P&F charts for the levels up to 17,800–18,000. However, they also note that there are some downside counts open to 16,500, and until these bearish counts are negated and bullish counts are formed, the trend is still bearish. They advise traders to be aware of this possibility while deciding on strategies. Lastly, they also mention that Nifty is still underperforming against other major asset classes such as bonds, currencies, and gold, and for a meaningful upside, this picture must change.

Experts View on the Comparison of the Price Movement of the Bank Nifty to the Nifty50: Market experts compare the price movement of the Bank Nifty to the Nifty 50 and note that both have corrected by 10 to 12 percent. However, they also mention that in the short term, the Bank Nifty is outperforming the market. They also further note that all stocks in the Bank Nifty are in the bullish column in the P&F chart, indicating bullish swings, whereas only about half of the stocks in the Nifty are in bullish swings. This suggests that more stocks have turned bullish in Bank Nifty. Additionally, they also mentioned that they track breadth indicators closely, as the number of stocks participating in a trend is usually a leading indicator. However, they also caution that there are stiff resistances on the higher side, which means that there is a possibility of short-term consolidation in the Bank Nifty.

Experts view on the importance of and some useful information about the Noiseless Chart part (Points and Figures): According to a few market experts, they say that they learned early in their careers that seeking consensus in the market is not the path to success. They began exploring lesser-known methods and stumbled upon noiseless charts, such as P&F, Renko, line-break, and Kagi charts, which take only price into account and eliminate noise from the data. These charts can reveal hidden price patterns and provide important information regarding trend and pattern. Price analysis, indicators, and strategies in technical analysis are applicable to these charting methods, making studies more effective and resulting in a significant increase in trade productivity. They also believe that those who have not learned about or understood these techniques are missing out on something valuable when it comes to trading.

Experts View on the Nifty IT Sector: Market experts are expressing caution and uncertainty regarding the current state of the market. While some stocks may be trading at support levels, there is no concrete evidence that the market has bottomed out yet. The IT index has shown a higher bottom, but it is not yet bullish, indicating that other sectors may be performing better. They also suggest that the confirmation of a bullish double bottom pattern in the IT sector's relative strength chart would be a useful tool to confirm a support pattern, but it has not yet occurred.

Experts view on Adani Group stocks: Market experts believe that Adani Group stocks are known for their high volatility and that traders who have a well-defined strategy in place for entering and exiting trades and managing risks may find opportunities to benefit from trading these stocks. However, they also suggest that these stocks are not suitable for newcomers or traders who base their decisions on news or intuition, as they may make emotional trades in these situations. Therefore, traders who have experience and discipline in their approach may consider trading Adani Group stocks, while those who lack experience or a sound trading strategy should avoid them.

Experts view on sectors for investment: Some market experts are actively seeking trading opportunities in three sectors: healthcare and pharmaceuticals, defence, and banking. They have identified some stocks in these sectors that are looking promising and noted that these sectors are currently outperforming the broader market indices and exhibiting a strong trend. They also believe that focusing on leading stocks within these sectors is a sound strategy, as it can offer a favourable risk-reward ratio, provided that the overall trend of the market (as represented by the Nifty index) is not bearish. However, they also warn that many traders make the mistake of not considering the broader market trend while selecting trades, which can lead to poor performance.

Conclusion: Markets experts say that currently they are expecting the possibility of consolidation in the market, and the current bottom of 17,000 on the Nifty50 index appears to be strong. In short, they suggest that it is a good time to enter the market and suggest investing in sectors like healthcare and pharmaceuticals, defence, and banking as they are actively seeking trading opportunities in these three sectors, but without having a demat account you cannot invest in these sectors. So, here is an opportunity to open your demat and trading accounts with Libord Brokerage Pvt Ltd and start investing in these sectors during this correction period in this market. On the stocks of IT and Adani Group, they believe that although the IT sector has made bottom, there are no signs of going up from here, and on Adani Stocks, they have suggested that new traders and investors should stay away for the present situation. So, overall, other than IT and Adani Group, investors should start investing in sectors like healthcare and pharmaceuticals, defence, and banking and generate a good return in their portfolio. 

Valuation for Indian Markets looks attractive as compared that to the World


Introduction: Today, India's banking system is less vulnerable to bank runs because the deposits are spread out among many different banks, making it less likely that a single bank failure will cause a widespread panic among depositors. Additionally, there are more obstacles, or "friction," in conducting large transactions, which can help deter rapid withdrawals of funds from banks. In contrast, in a banking system where a large proportion of deposits are concentrated in a few banks, the failure of even one of those banks can lead to a domino effect as depositor’s rush to withdraw their funds from other banks, causing a crisis of confidence in the entire system. Similarly, in a system where large transactions can be easily and quickly conducted, it may be easier for panicked depositors to withdraw their funds rapidly and exacerbate a bank run. Market experts say that the UK's high inflation could lead to the next banking crisis in the country. They said that many UK pension funds use liability-driven investment plans to pay pensioners, which could be affected by any further banking crisis. They also share their positive outlook on the Indian banking system, citing the presence of large, conservative banks that hold the bulk of deposits. They believe that valuations are reasonable in India, and there is more potential for upside risk than downside risk. Overall, they suggest that they see India as a more favourable investment destination compared to the UK due to the current economic and financial conditions.

 Importance on Assets -liability mismatch case: The general theme is about the asset-liability mismatch in banking, which can lead to bank failure if not managed properly. The market experts provide the best examples of how this mismatch can occur and how it can cause a bank run, leading to the inability of depositors to withdraw their money. They also highlight the importance of trust in banking and how any trigger that causes depositors to doubt their ability to get their money back can lead to a bank failure. They also acknowledge that banking is an opaque business, and greater regulation has stabilized the system, but sudden events can still happen. Overall, they suggest that managing the asset-liability mismatch in banking is crucial to prevent bank failures and that building trust is essential to maintaining stability in the banking system.

 All eyes on Fed rate news: Market experts suggest that the Federal Reserve is prioritizing price stability over full employment due to the tight labour market in the US. To achieve its inflation, target of 2 percent, the Federal Reserve is compelled to increase interest rates as mandated by law. They also said that the failure of some banks would not significantly affect employment numbers, but the Federal Reserve needed to ensure confidence in the financial system by providing support. As a result, interest rates are expected to rise in the US as the markets evaluate which banks are better at utilizing capital.

 Experts views on the fallout situation in other parts of the banking sector after the SVB case: The market experts suggest that European banks, particularly Credit Suisse, are under pressure and have experienced changes in top management. The perception that Credit Suisse is aggressive can also make it appear riskier. However, the statement implies that the Indian banking system is more resilient to bank runs due to its distributed deposit base and the presence of more friction in larger transactions. They also said that the actions of management can bring institutions built over decades to a grinding halt, and the moral hazard of being backed by central banks can create distorted incentives. They also expressed concern about the high inflation rate in the UK and the use of liability-driven investment plans by many UK pension funds to pay pensioners. They also suggested that if this trend were to spread, it could lead to the next bank crisis in the UK.

Experts’ expectations on the upcoming monsoon and its impact on the Indian market: Market experts suggest that the near-term outlook for the Indian banking system depends on the monsoon predictions by IMD. If poor crop yields are expected, it will result in higher food prices and core inflation. The demand for credit in India is strong, but depositors are not satisfied with the interest income of banks. This can lead to a mismatch between assets and liabilities, causing banks to borrow at higher costs in the overnight market. However, they expressed their confidence in the Indian banking system, citing that a few large and conservative banks hold most deposits. Additionally, they also suggested that during an election year, there is little need to worry about systemic banking risk.

Experts view on investment strategies as per the current scenario: Market experts suggest that companies that are insulated from macroeconomic issues, such as IT services and automotive part exporters, are likely to do well in a slowing western economy. Additionally, people may turn to traditional assets like gold and real estate as they lose trust in cryptocurrencies. Smaller companies that serve specific needs and have concentrated cashflows from a few geographies are seen as having an advantage in this environment. They also recommend investing in small-cap companies that have a dominant position in niche markets, which are referred to as micro monopolies, and in an asset allocation of gold and gold-related equity. They also focus on investing in such micro-companies, and the small case Golden Opportunities invests in an asset allocation of gold and gold-related equity, both of which are expected to do well.

Experts View on the Upcoming IPO Market: Market experts suggest that despite market fluctuations, good companies can always raise money, and the Indian markets have shown resilience by not falling too far from their all-time highs. The increasing fictionalization of savings (i.e., people investing in financial instruments instead of physical assets) is seen as a positive sign for companies aspiring to launch an IPO (initial public offering) and raise funds from the public markets. Overall, they said that the current market conditions in India are favourable for companies seeking to go public and raise capital.

Experts view on Indian market valuation: The market experts suggest that investing in a concentrated basket of equity in the long-term portfolio may be a good way to increase the portfolio's risk allocation given the current environment. It also suggests that there may be more upside risk than downside risk for India. They also point out that historically, years with inflation levels of around 6 percent have been good for Indian markets. This may imply that the Indian market has performed well during periods of moderate inflation, which is a positive sign for investors. However, it is important to note that past performance does not guarantee future results, and investing in the market always carries a certain level of risk. Therefore, it is crucial to carefully evaluate individual investment opportunities before making any investment decisions.

Conclusion: After the recent collapse in US banks and the Credit Suisse case, many investors were really worried about the financial system happening around the world, but experts have suggested that the Indian economy is far better than the world's economy as it has been properly managed, and moreover, they also highlighted that a 6% rate hike will not have such a huge impact on the Indian economy as it can be considered a sign of stability. But they have also mentioned that this situation entirely depends on the upcoming monsoon for this year, as it will have an impact on the inflation rate in India. Talking about sectors, they suggested that this is a very good time to invest in banking sectors, and followed by this, they mentioned that it is a golden opportunity to invest in an asset allocation of gold and gold-related equity, so start your investment journey with Libord brokerage private limited as our team of experts will help you select the right shares of gold because, in the market, there are many kinds of investment options available to invest in gold, but choosing the correct investment is necessary. So, open your demat account with us and own your portfolio today.

The market looks highly volatile until the next US election in 2024

Introduction:  At present, we can witness that due to elections next year, which are in India and the US, we are expecting that in the second half of CY23 there can be a twist and turn in the direction of the market, and the main factor would be the monsoon this year. But now, the present situation is indicating a different scenario, as there are high chances of a global financial crisis, which is likely to happen any time before the US election, which is in October 2024. At present, the US Fed is thinking of peaking its rate of interest around 5.75–6.0 percent and that by the end of October this year (CY23). For the time being, experts are keeping the geopolitical risk at a constant level. According to the expert, there is a high likelihood that the Federal Reserve will increase interest rates by 50 basis points in their upcoming meeting on March 22, 2023. They also believed that this will make it challenging for global stock markets to consistently rise, and the market will likely remain rangebound until at least July 2023. Looking ahead, experts warn of the possibility of a Global Financial Crisis 2.0 before the US Election in October 2024, as the current US Fed rates are like pre-2009 levels when the world last experienced a financial crisis. Therefore, they suggest that the probability of a recession is higher in the second half of CY2023.

Federal Reserve on their rate hike statement:  The experts are noting the higher-than-expected US inflation rate of 6.4% and the Federal Reserve's target inflation rate of 2%. They also predict that the US Fed interest rate will reach a peak of 5.75-6% by the end of October 2023, assuming no major changes in geopolitical risks.

Will market be volatile if rate hike remains constant:   The experts are predicting that interest rates will likely remain high for a longer period. The experts also believe, based on Mr. Powell’s statement, that there is a high likelihood of a 50-basis point increase in the Federal Reserve's interest rates at their upcoming meeting on March 22, 2023. They also suggest that a consistent rise in global stock markets will be difficult in this scenario and that the market will likely remain rangebound until at least July 2023.

Possibility of a recession in the US if rate hike is around these levels:   The experts say that they had previously spoken about the possibility of stagflation in the US economy in July 2020, and they now believe that this has become a reality. They also expressed their opinion that there is a high likelihood of a Global Financial Crisis 2.0 occurring before the US election in October 2024. The speaker attributes this prediction to the fact that the current US Fed rates are like the pre-2009 levels when the world experienced a financial crisis, and thus, the probability of a recession in the second half of CY2023 looks higher.

Will inflation in India stay elevated for second half of CY23: The experts say that India's January inflation was higher than expected, and there is speculation that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may likely to continue to raise interest rates. The speaker also observes that historically, Indian Government Bonds have had a premium of 2–3% yield over US Federal Reserve Rates. Based on the current scenario, the speaker predicts that the 10-year G-sec yield in India may peak at 8.2–8.4% by October 2023 and that inflation for February 2023 in India will be around 5.9–6.2%.

Experts view on Adani Stocks:  The experts say that Adani Group has made progress in getting its shares unpledged from various banks, which is a positive development for the company as it has been a major overhang. However, they also emphasize the importance of keeping a close watch on the company's quarterly results going forward, implying that there may still be fundamental risks associated with investing in these stocks. The speaker also suggests that only investors with a very high-risk appetite should consider investing in these stocks at their current levels.

Key impede for the Indian equity market:   The experts suggest that the Indian markets may face several headwinds, such as a changing geopolitical power shift, a SEBI report on Adani Group, and the US Fed's focus on higher interest rates. These factors could increase the risk for the Nifty50 and lead to a retest of the June 2022 lows in CY2023. However, despite these challenges, experts present a scenario that maintains a bullish view on Indian banks in the medium to long term. They also suggest a preference for large-cap stocks over mid-cap ones until July 2023. Overall, we can suggest a cautious approach towards Indian markets in the short term while maintaining optimism for the medium to long term.

Experts view on Banking Stock:  Experts suggest the banking sector has been showing signs of growth since July 2022, and from there it has witnessed significant growth, with private banks up by almost 20 percent and PSU banks up by 40-80 percent. Despite this growth, experts maintain their bullish stance on both the PSU and private banks, even at current levels. This suggests that the experts are optimistic about the prospects of the banking sector and believes that it still has room for growth. Overall, experts have a positive outlook towards the banking sector, as they have confidence in its ability to continue its growth trajectory.

Conclusion: The prediction for the market for going up is seems to get faded due to peak on the rate of interest by 5.75 to 6% and that to by the end of this October 2023 but still we can keep banking sectors in the focus as the growth indication seems be only in this sector so start your investment journey into banking stocks with Libord Group as we are having a term of research expert to guide and also to suggest you with best investment strategies as we at Libord value your hard earned money.

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