Welcome to my personal research website. I am a PhD Candidate in Economics at the University of Bamberg (Germany), specifically at the Professorship of Macroeconomics & International Finance. MA in International Economics at the HWR Berlin (Germany). My primary fields of research and professional interest are international macroeconomics and applied econometrics. Many years of work experience in the private sector. German and Venezuelan national.

WORK IN PROGRESS 

• Connecting the Global Financial Cycle and National Financial Conditions

• Oil News and the Global Financial Cycle (with Till Strohsal/HWR Berlin) 

• Fiscal Policy and the Exchange Rate Through the Lens of Behavioral Expectations and Non-Guassianity (with C. R. Proaño/U of Bamberg). [In preparation]

Abstract: This study puts forward a two-country open economy macroeconomic model characterized by boundedly rational agents with behavioral expectations to explore the effects of government spending on the real exchange rate. In particular, the exchange rate is modelled as an endogenous process which is driven not only by interest rate differentials but also by the dynamics of expectations in the currency market. Numerically, the dynamic adjustments of the model suggest that a positive government spending shock produces a real exchange rate appreciation, while a negative one generates the opposite outcome. Empirically, a SVAR model identified through non-gaussianity and estimated on data for the United Kingdom is able to replicate a real appreciation after a government spending shock.

• Geopolitical Risk, Commodity Prices and Economic Activity: Is Their Dynamic Interaction Nonlinear? (with C. R. Proaño/U of Bamberg). [Under peer-review]

Abstract: The interaction between fluctuations in commodity prices and macroeconomic activity is often interconnected with geopolitical events. This paper aims to contribute to the literature by exploring the effects of a geopolitical risk shock on aggregate commodity prices and economic activity. Our SVAR-based findings show that a geopolitical risk shock produces a decline in economic activity of 9 advanced economies and 8 commodity-dependent ones, and accordingly, also a decline in real commodity prices. However, nonlinear local projections show that the state of geopolitical fragmentation, interpreted as the overall level of global economic and political integration, matters for the sign of the responses to geopolitical risk shocks. Namely, a geopolitical risk shock produces a negative response in commodity prices and economic activity in periods of high geopolitical fragmentation, and the opposite effect (with some delay) in times of low geopolitical fragmentation.

PEER-REVIEWED PUBLICATIONS

Main Publications

• Proaño, C. R.; Quero Virla, L.; Strohsal, T.  (2025). How strong is the link between the global financial cycle and national macro-financial dynamics? A wavelet analysis. Journal of International Money & Finance, 159, 103419. [Replication Material]
  
  

Abstract: This paper explores the interaction between the global financial cycle (GFCy) and country-specific macro-financial dynamics. We investigate two alternative measures of the GFCy, the CBOE VIX index and Rey (2013)’s global factor, and equity prices, house prices, and aggregate credit volume as national variables. By means of a continuous wavelet analysis and a structural VAR framework, we explore such interaction in the frequency- and time-domain for 12 countries. Our evidence reveals that a strong and uniform relationship between the global financial cycle and national macro-financial series exists only during periods of global financial stress. Beyond those periods, we find significant variation in the relationship – both across time and countries. The choice of the global financial cycle proxy plays a very limited role. 

• Proaño, C. R.; Quero Virla, L. (2024). Macro-Financial Dynamics: Theories, Empirical Methods, and Time Scales. In: Booss-Bavnbek et al. (eds.), Multiplicity of Time Scales in Complex Systems II. Challenges for Sciences and Communication, Springer. 

Other Publications

• Quero Virla, L. (2023). An Empirical Characterization of Volatility in the German Stock Market. SN Business & Economics, 3(127). 

• Quero Virla, L. (2016). Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Fluctuations in Colombia. Ecos De Economía: A Latin American Journal of Applied Economics, 20(43). 

PRESENTATIONS AT CONFERENCES & SEMINARS

• Behavioral Macroeconomics Workshop:  2025 & 2023 at Univesity of Bamberg, 2024 at University of Heidelberg.

• International Conference on Computational and Financial Econometrics (CFE): 2024 at the King’s College London, 2023 at the HTW Berlin.

• German Network for New Economic Dynamics (GENED): 2022 at the University of Gießen.

• Forum for Macroeconomics and Macroeconomic Policies (FMM Conference): 2025.

• International Economics Research Seminar at HWR Berlin: 2026, 2023, 2021.