St-Pierre, Latif, Kjellsson, Park, Borchert: Emergence time of CO2-forced European summer climate trends

Börgel, Baroni, Barghorn, Borchert, et al.: Teleconnections to the Baltic Sea Region: Controls, Predictability and Consequences

Castillo Bautista, Gaetani, Borchert, Poschlod, Brunner, Sillmann, Martina: Large-scale drivers of compounding hot and dry events in three breadbasket regions

Zheng, Sillmann, Borchert: Decadal Predictions of the Link Between European Hot-Dry Compound Summers and North Atlantic SST

St-Pierre,  Latif, Kjellsson, Park, Borchert: Evident decrease in future European soil moisture in the Kiel Climate Model grand ensemble

Orlov, Blanz, Borchert, Waidelich, Drupp, Schaumann, Avakumovic, Sillmann: Quantifying the Cost of Climate Change Impacts: Limitations and Frontiers of Economic Models

[29]  Fan, H., L.F. Borchert, S. Brune, A. Drews, J. Baehr (2025).  Lagged and Instantaneous Impacts of the NAO on Subdecadal Variability of the Norwegian Sea Temperature. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0302.1 

[28] Dietz, V., J. Baehr, J. Sillmann, L. Suarez-Gutierrez &  L.F. Borchert (2025).  The future of hot and dry events in the breadbasket regions of maize. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adda63

[27] Krieger, D., R. Weisse, J. Baehr &  L.F. Borchert (2025).  Machine learning-driven skillful decadal predictions of German Bight storm surges. Geophysical Research Letters,  52, e2024GL111558. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111558

[26] Carvalho-Oliveira, J., G. di Capua, L. Borchert, R. Donner, J. Baehr (2024): Causal relationships and predictability of the summer East Atlantic teleconnection, Weather Clim. Dynam., 5, 1561–1578, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1561-2024 

[25] Sillmann, J., T. Raupach, K. Findell et al. (2024): Climate extremes and risks: Links between climate science and decision making. Front. Clim. 6. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2024.1499765 

[24] Borchert, L., V. Dietz, J. Becker, K. Jantke (2024): How will extreme heat in the world’s crop-growing regions change in the future? in Engels, Marotzke, Ratter et al.: Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2024. transcript, Bielefeld. https://doi.org/10.14361/9783839470817  

[23] Olonscheck, D., L. Borchert, A. Deroubaix (2024) Single-model initial-condition large ensembles quantify internal climate variability and its changes. in Engels, Marotzke, Ratter et al.: Hamburg Climate Futures Outlook 2024. transcript, Bielefeld.  https://doi.org/10.14361/9783839470817  

[22] Ferster, B.S.*, Borchert, L.*, J. Mignot, M.B. Menary, C. Cassou, A. Fedorov (2023) Pantropical Indo-Atlantic temperature gradient modulates multi-decadal AMOC variability in models and observations. npj Clim Atmos Sci 6, 165 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00489-x 

[21] Fan, H., Borchert L, Brune S, Koul V, Baehr J (2023) North Atlantic Subpolar Gyre Provides Downstream Ocean Predictability. npj Clim Atmos Sci 6, 145 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00469-1 

[20] Börgel, F, Gröger, M., Meier, M., Dutheil, C., Radtke, T., Borchert L. (2023) The impact of Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on Baltic Sea temperatures limited to winter. npj Clim Atmos Sci 6, 64 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00373-8 

[19] Palmer, T., McSweeney, C., Booth, B., Priestley, M., Davini, P., Brunner, L., Borchert, L., Menary, M. (2023) Performance based sub-selection of CMIP6 models for impact assessments in Europe. Earth System Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-14-457-2023 

[18] Befort, D., Brunner, L., Borchert, L.F., O'Reilly, C., Mignot, J., Ballinger, A., Hegerl, G., Murphy, J., Weisheimer, A. (2022) Combination of decadal predictions and climate projections in time: Challenges and potential solutions. Geophys. Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL098568

[17] Carvalho Oliveira, J., Borchert, L.F., Zorita, E., Baehr, J. (2022) Self-organising maps identify windows of opportunity for seasonal European summer temperature predictions. Front. Clim. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fclim.2022.844634 

[16] Borchert, L.F., Koul, V., Menary, M.B., Befort, D.J., Swingedouw, D., Sgubin, G. and Mignot, J. (2021) Skillful decadal prediction of unforced Southern European summer temperature variations. Env. Res. Lett. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ac20f5

[15] Carvalho-Oliveira, J., Borchert, L. F., Duchez, A., Dobrynin, M., and Baehr, J. (2021) Subtle influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on seasonal sea surface temperature hindcast skill in the North Atlantic, Weather Clim. Dynam., 2, 739–757, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-2-739-2021

[14] Sgubin, G., Swingedouw, D., Borchert, L.F. et al. (2021) Systematic investigation of skill opportunities in decadal prediction of air temperature over Europe. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05863-0

[13] Swingedouw, D., Bily, A., Esquerdo, C., Borchert, L.F., Sgubin, G., Mignot, J. and Menary, M. (2021), On the risk of abrupt changes in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre in CMIP6 models. Ann. N.Y. Acad. Sci.. https://doi.org/10.1111/nyas.14659

[12] Hegerl, G., Ballinger A., Booth B., Borchert L. F., Brunner, L., et al. (2021) Towards consistent observational constraints in climate predictions and projections. Frontiers in Climate. 3:678109. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2021.678109

[11] Borchert, L. F., Menary, M. B., Swingedouw, D., Sgubin, G., Hermanson, L., & Mignot, J. (2021). Improved decadal predictions of North Atlantic subpolar gyre SST in CMIP6. Geophysical Research Letters, 48, e2020GL091307. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091307

[10] Smith, D.M., Scaife, A.A., Eade, R. et al. (2020) North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply. Nature 583, 796–800. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0

[9] Oelsmann, J., Borchert, L., Hand, R., Baehr, J., & Jungclaus, J. H. (2020). Linking ocean forcing and atmospheric interactions to Atlantic multidecadal variability in MPI‐ESM1.2. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL087259. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL087259

[8] Koul, V., Tesdal, JE., Bersch, M. et al. (2020) Unraveling the choice of the north Atlantic subpolar gyre index. Sci Rep 10, 1005. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-57790-5

[7] Müller, W. A., Borchert, L., & Ghosh, R. (2020). Observed subdecadal variations of European summer temperatures. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2019GL086043. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086043

[6] Borchert, L. F., Pohlmann, H., Baehr, J., Neddermann, N.‐C., Suarez‐Gutierrez, L., & Müller, W. A. (2019). Decadal predictions of the probability of occurrence for warm summer temperature extremes. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 14042– 14051. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085385

[5] Borchert, L. F., Düsterhus, A., Brune, S., Müller, W. A., & Baehr, J. (2019). Forecast‐oriented assessment of decadal hindcast skill for North Atlantic SST. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 11444– 11454. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084758

[4] Borchert, L.F. (2018) Decadal predictions in the North Atlantic region: the role of ocean heat transport. PhD thesis. Reports on Earth System Science 208/2018. Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany. https://pure.mpg.de/rest/items/item_2639896_5/component/file_2639897/content

[3] Borchert, L. F., Müller, W. A., & Baehr, J. (2018). Atlantic Ocean Heat Transport Influences Interannual-to-Decadal Surface Temperature Predictability in the North Atlantic Region, Journal of Climate, 31(17), 6763-6782. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0734.1

[2] Link, P., Borchert, L.F., Süsser, D. et al. Coast to coast: current multidisciplinary research trends in German coastal and marine geography. J Coast Conserv 22, 1–4 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11852-017-0578-5

[1] Link, P., Borchert, L.F. Ecosystem Services in Coastal and Marine Areas – Scientific State of the Art and Research Needs. Coastline Reports 24 (2015). http://eucc-d-inline.databases.eucc-d.de/files/documents/00001195_CR24_AMK_2013.pdf