I earned my Ph.D. in Economics at Southern Illinois University in 2015 and the CBE designation in 2024. I've taught economics and statistics for several years. I also research international, monetary, and financial economics. Check out my instructional videos for Python and Stata below!
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Create and Update Plots w/ an API
Create and Update Plots w/ an API
I show you how to create and update plots in Python using an API and GitHub. You can create the plot in this video with an API from Bureau of Labor Statistics. Then, embed the plot into your website with a GitHub repository, personal access token, and GitHub Pages. You can follow the guide in my GitHub repository below. Thanks!
GitHub repository (ytplot): https://github.com/lenzeric/ytplot
Colab: https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1TZlf0NAGtVTMTjb0qd9tC7UAhWZThfBr
My personal website's dashboard: https://sites.google.com/view/lenz/dashboard
Forecast GDP Growth in Python w/ ChatGPT
Forecast GDP Growth in Python w/ ChatGPT
I revisit my video "Forecast GDP growth in Stata" and try to capture the rebound in growth for 2021. This time I show you how to forecast in Python with help from ChatGPT.
Will GDP growth decline substantially in 30 years?
Will GDP growth decline substantially in 30 years?
Just a quick video introducing ChatGPT and it's use with Python. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecasts substantial declines in GDP growth in the following decades, but we may not expect this given the past behavior of the GDP growth time-series.
European Central Bank sentiment index - working versions
European Central Bank sentiment index - working versions
Here are two working versions of a sentiment index for the European Central Bank (ECB) in collaboration with Ithiel Egambaram. We collect text from ECB policy statements and press conferences, match economic concepts to a sentiment dictionary, and plot daily sentiment over time.
Check out the Colabs below and feel free to leave comments!
https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1apr0JnSGLnGgW5n8ix3vWcM1nmoajxOd?usp=sharing
https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1a7Zfd3o5mZn547_QWqoytsOPzk-djvlS?usp=sharing
Congressional Bill Parser: Find dollar amounts associated with keywords
Congressional Bill Parser: Find dollar amounts associated with keywords
I was curious about money appropriated in congressional bills, so I made a bill parser in Python. The program finds dollar amounts associated with your keyword, exports to .csv, and plots over time. It also finds semantically similar words in the congressional bills. I looked at the last couple of omnibus bills and the dollars associated with "subsidy" are typically greater than "tax", especially in 2024.
Check out my Colab and try it for yourself! https://lnkd.in/gPJGWRHR
Instructional video for Python replication of Identifying Montetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach
Instructional video for Python replication of Identifying Montetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach
I made an instructional video for the Python replication of Aruoba and Drechsel's work. I set up the replication in a Google Colab, so you can run the code for yourself and plot economic concepts of interest. Please let me know if you have any questions!
Working Python replication of Identifying Montetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach
Working Python replication of Identifying Montetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach
My working Python replication of "Identifying Monetary Policy Shocks: A Natural Language Approach" by S. Borağan Aruoba and Thomas Drechsel. https://econweb.umd.edu/~drechsel/papers/Aruoba_Drechsel.pdf
I process 772 PDFs of Fed documents from 1982-2016, generate sentiment scores for economic concepts according to the Loughran-McDonald dictionary, and plot the scores. Still a work in progress, but here's a sample with 'credit' and 'oil prices'. Github link
State of the Union Addresses and Economic Growth
State of the Union Addresses and Economic Growth
The State of the Union Address is coming up, so for fun I calculated the sentiment of 30 yrs of speeches and plotted with economic growth. Obama's addresses seemed to closely reflect economic conditions in 2010 and 2011 following the crisis. By comparison, Biden's addresses during the pandemic seemed understated. What will the sentiment of Trump's speech look like?
Github: https://github.com/lenzeric/sentiment/blob/main/SOU.py
Sentiment Analysis...version 2!
Sentiment Analysis...version 2!
I updated the program code to extend sentiment analysis to 2, 5, or 10 years, expand # of sentiment analyzers to 4, begin to generalize analysis for companies other than AAPL, and add query for Excel export.
AAPL Sentiment Analysis
AAPL Sentiment Analysis
In this video I scrape text from four AAPL quarterly reports and perform sentiment analysis using NLTK's SentimentIntensityAnalyzer. Then, I compare the sentiment scores to historical AAPL price data found on Yahoo with yfinance in a plot.
Make a Fredcloud in Python
Make a Fredcloud in Python
In this video I scrape several FOMC press releases and make two Wordclouds imposed onto a FRED graph. I use Gimp to process the images and 'for' loops to compile the natural language text.
Make a Wordcloud in Python!
Make a Wordcloud in Python!
I show how to make a Wordcloud in Python using web-scraping and natural language processing techniques. We look at a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) press release which highlights the Fed's focus and goals for monetary policy. I also show that the Fed cares a little more about communicating risks post-pandemic.
Teaching and research update - Fall 2021
Teaching and research update - Fall 2021
Welcome to my blog! This summer I taught an introductory statistics course and recorded/edited the lectures. I'm using the lectures now in a "flipped" classroom. Also, I'm presenting a virtual poster at the 2022 AEA/ASSA Meeting.
Estimate confidence and forecast intervals in Stata
Estimate confidence and forecast intervals in Stata
Is 6% GDP growth likely for the United States in 2021? I estimate confidence and forecast intervals in Stata to show that 6% growth or more would be an outlier. I discuss recent growth forecasts, characteristics of the normal distribution, the theory and interpretation of a confidence interval, and finally I estimate confidence and forecast intervals in Stata.
Forecast GDP growth in Stata
Forecast GDP growth in Stata
Learn how to forecast in Stata with two examples of GDP growth. First, I forecast U.S. real GDP growth into 2025 to determine how quickly the U.S. economy may recover from the pandemic. Then, I forecast world real GDP growth into 2025 and directly after the global financial crisis. Finally, I compare my forecast with IMF forecasts after the global crisis.
Create maps in Stata with spmap
Create maps in Stata with spmap
How can you create nice maps in Stata? Kevin Crow and William Gould at StataCorp write a nice walkthrough about using the spmap command. I follow their basic outline using income per person and county coordinate data. Then I show how to customize the color palette, change the legend, and display z-scores.
Create an Attendance Grade using Zoom Reports
Create an Attendance Grade using Zoom Reports
How can you incentivize your students to attend online lectures in Zoom? Zoom records meetings and participant information. The participant information includes names, email addresses, dates and times, and the participant's duration in the meeting. I use the participant's duration in each meeting to create an attendance grade in Stata.
"Economic Reasoning Using Statistics"
"Economic Reasoning Using Statistics"
Are some counties in Illinois handling coronavirus (COVID-19) better than others? Can we find evidence of global warming in the patterns of melting lake ice in Russia? These are some of the topics that will be covered this fall in ECO 138: Economic Reasoning Using Statistics.
Teaching Innovations Grant - July 2020
Teaching Innovations Grant - July 2020
The University Teaching Committee at Illinois State University is funding work for my project-based, introductory statistics course for next fall! The project-based approach to my course involves cooperation with local businesses and academic departments to investigate authentic problems using simple statistical methods. My project-based course will focus on five (5) specific elements that are not typically offered in an introductory statistics course: active learning and exploration, intentional use of student writing, collaboration with peers and student-faculty interaction, challenging instruction and high expectation, and critical thinking and student reflection.
"The Dynamics of Environmental Policy Making in China"
"The Dynamics of Environmental Policy Making in China"
I worked with Linda Bollivar in the Office of International Studies and Programs to invite a visiting Fulbright scholar to lecture on environmental policy in China. I was a Fulbright teaching assistant in Austria before formally studying Economics. I'm still interested in international economics and affairs, so I jumped on this opportunity provided by the Fulbright Outreach Lecturing Fund.
Dr. Xueying Yu is visiting Cornell University from Beihang University in China. Check out her talk on Thursday, February 20th at 2pm in Stevenson 347B.
Simple linear regression model
Simple linear regression model
An easy-to-follow example of a simple linear regression model with one explanatory variable and five observations in open source spreadsheet software. See how the estimation of Y changes with new inputs of X. Also, see how the parameters of the regression equation change with different values of X and Y.
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