THE LAY OF THE LAND FOR DIGITAL LEARNING
THE LAY OF THE LAND FOR DIGITAL LEARNING
THE PRACTICAL IMPLICATIONS OF AI, QUANTUM COMPUTING, AT-SCALE DEGREES, AND MORE
Ray Schroeder
UPCEA Sr. Fellow
Embedded Files
https://sites.google.com/view/layoftheland/home
First: A word about presentation format. For the past dozen years, we have been "power-point-less" at the UIS Center for Online Learning, Research and Service. Rather than using a static, aging format, we prefer to create Web pages for our presentations to assure that they are easily accessible, updatable, and always available. Please follow along on your own device (or visit at a later date) to delve more deeply into the links and videos that interest you.
Organization of Presentation Site
- We will survey the key emerging societal and technological trends to set context
- We will examine the impact of 5G, "at-scale" modes, artificial Intelligence and ultimately quantum computing
- We will examine approaches to adaptive, individualized and personalized learning
- We will outline strategies and share resources to assure you are up to date
- We will discuss the decision-making process on implementing emerging technologies, pedagogies and practices.
- Desired outcomes are to subscribe to relevant free curations, create custom feeds, and develop methods to decide and implement new technologies, pedagogies and practices to remain competitive and lead in teaching and learning practice.
Setting Context
Setting Context
Make no mistake, we have crossed the threshold into the fourth industrial revolution that will most markedly advance this decade through maturing artificial intelligence, ultimately driven by quantum computing. The changes will come at an ever-increasing rate as the technologies and societal demands accelerate. Digital computers advanced over the past half century at approximately the rate described by Moore’s Law, with processing power doubling every two years. Now we are entering the era of Neven’s Law, which predicts the speed of progress of quantum computing at a doubly exponential rate. This means change at a dizzyingly rapid rate that will leave many of us unable to comprehend the why and barely able to digest the daily advances that will describe reality. New platforms, products and processes will proliferate in this new decade.
Advent of 5G
Advent of 5G
5G is the next generation of mobile broadband that will eventually replace, or at least augment, your 4G LTE connection. With 5G, you’ll see exponentially faster download and upload speeds. Latency, or the time it takes devices to communicate with the wireless networks, will also drastically decrease. https://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/what-is-5g/
How does this impact online and distance learning
- The ultra high speed of 5G is faster than many campus networks - up to 20 Gb/s compared to less than 1 Gb/s in optimum 4G connections
- The low latency of 2 milliseconds compared to 50 milliseconds in 4G enables interactivity like never before - such as VR and remote laboratories and even surgeries
- Connectivity at a distance will enable virtually everything that is done on campus and even more (see Ray's Inside Higher Ed column on 5G) https://www.insidehighered.com/digital-learning/blogs/online-trending-now/dawn-5g-empowering-vr-ar-and-much-more
- What this all means for 5G is that there is a golden opportunity here for higher education institutions to be a vanguard for the development of 5G-driven technologies. Network operators and businesses have realized there is little room for 5G fast-followers. The 5G revolution can only be sparked by striking out early and fostering innovation – and colleges and universities are the perfect place to do that. https://www.lightreading.com/partner-perspectives-(sponsored-content)/the-benefits-5g-will-bring-to-higher-education/a/d-id/754118
- 5G is not a breakthrough design technology, it is a breakthrough support technology. Here are ten examples of what 5G can do for learners. https://teachonline.ca/tools-trends/get-ready-for-5g-reshaping-teaching-and-learning-in-the-digital-age
- As 5G expands in coverage, we will be able to use the robust bandwidth along with the low latency to enable VR streams. With 5G’s sub-5 or sub-2 ms latency, the user experience will be amazing. In other words, it will be smooth and natural. As VR is all about immersion -- feeling like you are in the immersive virtual environment -- this is incredibly important. The benefits will be felt by many industries using VR -- from healthcare to entertainment. https://www.forbes.com/sites/solrogers/2019/01/30/the-arrival-of-5g-will-unlock-the-full-potential-of-vr-and-ar/#159fe8bf7bcc
- When it comes to the 5G, there are already plenty of applications in manufacturing, media, city management, and healthcare. Education is just scratching the surface of what’s possible in the classroom. Here is what teachers and educators can expect: https://www.gettingsmart.com/2019/04/5-ways-5g-will-make-classrooms-smarter/
- How soon? In two years we will see a majority of our learners with access - not everyone - but the competition will be felt from universities that are offering the high performance apps and engagements.
Have you considered leading the initiative to fully leverage 5G online by 2022 in your learning business?
How could this change the competitive environment for your training initiatives?
Who is leading the 5G initiative in your association or institution?
At-Scale and MOOC Learning
At-Scale and MOOC Learning
MOOCs have evolved over the past dozen years from constructivist non-credit approaches to x-MOOCs reaching hundreds of thousands of learners. They now include more than 50 Masters degrees and several baccalaureate degree completion programs. More than 100 million students enrolled in MOOCs last year in the more than 13,500 courses. Degree programs are expanding through Coursera and edX in the US and among a dozen other providers internationally.
"At-Scale" Learning continues to grow
Georgia Tech University offers an online at-scale online masters of computer science. The degree costs less than $10,000 and now enrolls some 10,000 students! It is by far the largest such masters program in the world. The on campus equivalent costs nearly $50,000.
The impact of these programs on universities that are not engaged in the MOOC and "at-scale" offerings is huge:
Midsize and small regional universities are seeing the some of the largest declines in enrollments. In assessing the cause of this disproportionate decline, I believe not enough consideration is being given to the impact of the growing trend of low-cost degrees offered at scale by prestigious universities. Starting in 2015 with the Georgia Tech online master's of science in computer science, the field now has nearly 50 entries as of January of this year. https://www.insidehighered.com/digital-learning/blogs/online-trending-now/impact-scale-and-mega-u-degrees
Deal with online giant threatens Pennsylvania colleges, Moody’s warns
JILL BARSHAY, The Hechinger Report
If you want to understand how online degrees are shaking up traditional colleges and universities, look at Pennsylvania. In January 2020, the state’s 14 community colleges signed an unusual agreement with a private nonprofit university far outside Pennsylvania’s borders to encourage students to complete their bachelor’s degrees online.
https://hechingerreport.org/online-giant-threatens-pennsylvania-colleges/
MOOCS are not just for colleges and universities.
Harvard Business Review reports that employees are already using MOOCs to upskill, even without the support of their employers:
That means a lot of people who want to become better at their jobs are fending for themselves. Organizations could change that—and offset the drop in formal training—by encouraging and supporting enrollment in MOOCs (massive open online courses), which are readily available and relatively inexpensive on platforms such as Coursera and EdX. Since they came on the learning scene, in 2008, MOOCs have gradually shifted toward offering content that is relevant to the world of work. Course topics range from machine learning and Java programming to communication and leadership. Given that employees are already using MOOCs to acquire professional skills and improve their career prospects on their own, companies have an untapped opportunity to harness this kind of learning in the service of organizational goals. https://hbr.org/2018/01/can-moocs-solve-your-training-problem
Have you developed one or more MOOCs?
In analyzing demand for your programs and offerings, do you see the impact of "at-scale" competition?
How do you build value for your programs in this environment?
Artificial Intelligence in Education
Artificial Intelligence in Education
AI is already in many aspects of education. It is used in a vast array of apps as well as traditional programs.
AI isn't going to replace math class or help students get into their seats before the bell, but it could have some significant impact on certain aspects of the education system. But that is far from a certainty, and to boil down a closer look at AI's future in education we turn to some industry insiders. Heres' what they have to say:
What’s The Future Of AI In Education? 17 Experts Share Their Insights https://www.disruptordaily.com/future-of-ai-education/
Artificial Intelligence in Higher Education: Applications, Promise and Perils, and Ethical Questions - EDUCAUSE Review
What are the benefits and challenges of using artificial intelligence to promote student success, improve retention, streamline enrollment, and better manage resources in higher education? AI is affecting all aspects of higher education: administration, teaching, assessment, student performance and more.
A sampling of areas where artificial intelligence is emerging that will affect higher ed
AI musicians have emerged - Aiva https://youtu.be/HAfLCTRuh7U and https://youtu.be/gA03iyI3yEA, with voiced singing https://youtu.be/4MKAf6YX_7M , and more - they have a following! Impact is coming for music education.
https://www.digitaltrends.com/cool-tech/auxuman-ai-album/
Saraj Raval explains how it is done:
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AI that summarizes research for faculty and students.
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AI essay graders have been around for some years; they keep getting better and better.
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AI passes 12th grade science test; not just regurgitating facts, this test requires cognitive reasoning:
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/9/13/20863269/ai-aristo-science-test-allen-institute
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EssayBot will write your student essays - perhaps not an "A" - but credible.
https://www.vox.com/the-goods/2019/4/15/18311367/essaybot-ai-homework-passing
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Toward AI that learns to write - well.
http://news.mit.edu/2019/toward-artificial-intelligence-that-learns-to-write-code-0614
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You are reading AI-written reports every day (many are written from AI-gathered research as well) - in Bloomberg (1/3 of all reports), Washington Post, Forbes, Guardian, Associated Press and many more.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/05/business/media/artificial-intelligence-journalism-robots.html
https://techhq.com/2019/09/writing-and-research-tools-the-future-of-the-newsroom/
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Poetry and other creative writing by AI.
https://www.vox.com/2019/5/15/18623134/openai-language-ai-gpt2-poetry-try-it
Trying out the Open AI Writing software.
How is AI integrated into your teaching and learning?
Is there a coordinated effort merging technology innovation, support, and pedagogy?
Are you prepared for personalized learning AI - driven competition?
Adaptive Learning
Adaptive Learning
Computer assisted Adaptive Learning has been around in one form or another for decades. In the early PLATO computer system of the 1970s, networked computer assisted instruction enabled basic branching of learning modules based on which right and wrong answers students chose.
At the essence of adaptive learning is personalized learning that adapts to the knowledge of the learner. I wrote about this in Inside Higher Ed a few months ago:
Adaptive Learning to Personalized Learning
The net effect is that the instructor no longer must scale back expectations of students and teach only to the lowest common denominator of knowledge in the class. AI can adapt the learning program individually and assure that advanced learners are appropriately challenged, while those who come less prepared receive the background training they require to succeed.
Have you incorporated any of the adaptive-learning tools in your training classes?
Are you preparing for the next step of personalized learning?
Are you preparing your colleagues for this process?
No discussion of AI is complete without considering the impact of quantum computing
No discussion of AI is complete without considering the impact of quantum computing
Quantum Computing Is Poised to Change Everything
Ray Schroeder, Inside Higher Ed
It is truly rare that an advancement comes along that changes every aspect of society; quantum computing is poised to do just that in the 2020s. Do you recall Moore’s law? That’s the axiom developed by Gordon Moore some two dozen years ago that the processing power of computers would double every 18 months to two years. Now, quantum computing has ushered in Hartmut Neven’s law. His law predicting growth in quantum computing power is one that is doubly exponential. That is two to an exponent of two to a second increasing exponent. Charted on a graph, that growth rate appears to become nearly vertical.
Quantum Computing is on the Verge of Supercharging AI
The advent of quantum computing will fuel a "quantum" leap in artificial intelligence. The Google 54 qubit computer just claimed computing supremacy over the previous fastest computer in the world, the Summit supercomputer at Oak Ridge. "Purportedly, Google’s Sycamore quantum processor, using 54-qubits, performed calculations in 200 seconds that would have taken today’s supercomputers over 10,000 years to complete. The power and potential of such an achievement are awe-inspiring, even if there are no obvious practical applications today." Note: IBM disputes the claim . IBM has their own 53 qubit computer.
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Hello quantum world! Google publishes landmark quantum supremacy claim - Nature 10/23/10
Scientists at Google say that they have achieved quantum supremacy, a long-awaited milestone in quantum computing. The announcement, published in Nature on 23 October, follows a leak of an early version of the paper five weeks ago, which Google did not comment on at the time. In a world first, a team led by John Martinis, an experimental physicist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and Google in Mountain View, California, says that its quantum computer carried out a specific calculation that is beyond the practical capabilities of regular, ‘classical’ machines1. The same calculation would take even the best classical supercomputer 10,000 years to complete, Google estimates.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-03213-z
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Quantum entanglement over 30 miles of fiber has brought super secure internet closer - Douglas Heaven, Technology Review 2/13/20
In a paper in Nature today, Pan Jian-Wei at the University of Science and Technology of China, in Hefei, and his colleagues describe an experiment in which they demonstrate entanglement through more than 30 miles of fiber coiled in a lab, with lower transmission errors than previous attempts. “This is a big improvement,” says Pan, who is sometimes called the “father of quantum.” The trick was to find efficient ways to entangle two particles. The team used an atom, which stayed put, and a photon, which was sent down the fiber. They found that they were able to create an entangled pair of nodes much more reliably than was demonstrated in previous experiments—including the one setting the mile benchmark, which it beat by five orders of magnitude.
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Here's Why Quantum Computing Supremacy Matters - Futurism
American theoretical physicist John Preskill first coined the term “quantum supremacy” back in 2012. In a column for Quanta Magazine published earlier this month, he defined it as “the point where quantum computers can do things that classical computers can’t, regardless of whether those tasks are useful.” It’s important to note that quantum supremacy doesn’t mean a quantum computer can solve a task that’s impossible for a classical computer. “Given enough time… classical computers and quantum computers can solve the same problems,” Thomas Wong of Creighton University told Quanta Magazine.
https://futurism.com/why-quantum-supremacy-matter
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Quantum Information and AI - Alex Moltzau, Towards Data Science
“In physics and computer science, quantum information is the information of the state of a quantum system. It is the basic entity of study in quantum information theory, and can be manipulated using quantum information processing techniques.” “Quantum neural networks (QNNs) are neural network models which are based on the principles of quantum mechanics. There are two different approaches to QNN research, one exploiting quantum information processing to improve existing neural network models (sometimes also vice versa), and the other one searching for potential quantum effects in the brain.”
https://towardsdatascience.com/quantum-computing-and-ai-789fc9c28c5b
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Speed Demons: How Quantum Computing Could Change Education - By Jeffrey R. Young Oct 29, 2019
Meet Alexey Galda, a research assistant professor at the University of Chicago, who specializes in trying new methods of quantum computing. In his spare time, he’s an avid wingsuit flyer, and he’s actually in the Guinness World Records for achieving the fastest horizontal speed in one of these real-life superhero outfits. He was going over 200 miles per hour.And to bring the conversation back down to earth, we talked with Ray Schroeder, the associate vice chancellor for online learning at the University of Illinois at Springfield, to hear what these new super-fast computers might mean for education.
https://www.edsurge.com/news/2019-10-29-speed-demons-how-quantum-computing-could-change-education
How is your learning business preparing for the quantum revolution?
Who is leading the planning in this area?
Are you following the developments in the field? Will you be a leader, a follower or a trailer in quantum applications?
Additional Readings
https://phys.org/news/2019-11-milestone-quantum-standardization.html
https://gizmodo.com/google-confirms-achieving-quantum-supremacy-1839288099
https://www.verdict.co.uk/quantum-computing-2019/
https://www.quantamagazine.org/john-preskill-explains-quantum-supremacy-20191002/
https://enterprisetalk.com/quick-bytes/googles-breakthrough-quantum-computing/
https://bigthink.com/technology-innovation/quantum-computing-john-hopkins
How can you keep up with the daily developments and trends?
How can you keep up with the daily developments and trends?
Ray's Daily (365 days/year) Curated Reading Lists and Social Media. Blogs with daily updates on the field of technology / online / continuing learning
These are resources available at no charge to you!
- UPCEA Professional, Continuing and Online Education Update https://continuingedupdate.blogspot.com/ (three items a day with more than one million visits with more than 1,000 leaders subscribing to the daily feed)
- Ray's Curation https://rayscuration.blogspot.com (for those with time to look at only one item a day)
- Recession Reality in Higher Education https://recessionreality.blogspot.com/ (two items a day chronicling the decline in funding and closure/merger of colleges since 2008)
- UIS OER Blog https://uisoerblog.blogspot.com (one item a day to keep the OER fire burning)
- Ray's bi-weekly column in Inside Higher Ed https://www.insidehighered.com/users/ray-schroeder
- Ray's Twitter https://twitter.com/rayschroeder (one or two items daily; followed by 3,270+)
- Ray's LinkedIn site http://linkedin.com/in/rayschroeder where daily updates and discussion take place (followed by 2,850+)
Contact Ray
rschr1@uis.edu ~ rayschroeder@gmail.com ~ ray@upcea.edu
Senior Fellow, University and Professional Continuing Education Association
Associate Vice Chancellor for Online, Professor Emeritus
University of Illinois Springfield
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