Research

Publications

Duthilleul L. (2023). « Le Patriotisme des démocraties et la montée du populisme à l'aune de l'économie » In :Patriotismes et Sociétés. Dynamiques et permanences d’un fait social. Sous la direction d'A. Augé. Éditions Lamarque. ISBN: 978-2-490-64392-9. URL: https://www.editionslamarque.fr/livres/patriotismes-et-societes/.
Duthilleul L. & Tuffery L. (2024). « Base de données » In :Les grandes notions de l’urbanisme : Pour les métiers de l’immobilier. Sous la direction de J. Blain & L. Brown. Dunot. ISBN: 978-2-10-086199-6. URL: https://www.dunod.com/entreprise-et-economie/grandes-notions-urbanisme-pour-metiers-immobilier.
Duthilleul L. & Moureaux J. (2025). « Analyse de l’offre de logement à travers le concept économique d’élasticité ». Repère biblio. Mis en ligne le 18 juin 2025, Cahiers ESPI2R. URL: https://www.cahiers-espi2r.fr/1822.

Work-in-progress

"Income inequality and satisfaction with democracy" - with Quentin DAVID and Abel FRANÇOIS

This paper aims to reconcile the theoretical and empirical literature on the relationship between income inequality and satisfaction with democracy by exploring the mechanisms linking these two variables. Using the 3rd and 4th EVS data, we test four different measures of income inequality: the Gini index (sociotropic effective income inequality), unemployment rate (sociotropic visible income inequality), household income (egotropic effective income inequality) and unemployed status (egotropic visible income inequality). In this paper, we analyse democracy support at two geographical levels: at country level (international analysis) and at department level (analysis of a single country, France). We estimate a multilevel model with random effects using democracy support in two ways: with the traditional variable of satisfaction with democracy and by extension with the support for alternative political systems to democracy (autocratic, technocratic or military). We find that, at international and French levels, sociotropic income inequality (effective and visible) has no significant effect on democracy support. On the contrary, greater egotropic income inequality leads to both lower satisfaction with democracy and stronger support for alternative political systems to democracy. We go further in this analysis by stipulating that the effects of sociotropic and egotropic income inequality on democracy support are significantly conditioned by partisanship: at a given level of income inequality, as they are more sensitive to income inequality than right-wing partisans, left-wing partisans share a significant lower democracy support.

"Unemployment : a root of populism ? Evidence from French presidential elections" - Laura DUTHILLEUL

In this paper, we analyse the link between unemployment and populist votes. We propose to deal with some aspects of unemployment : egotropic/sociotropic unemployment, current/accumulated unemployment as well as voters' own explanation of unemployment. We use French presidential Election Studies (FES) from 2002 (when the Front National reached the second round) to the 2017 election, characterised by the electoral success of both right-wing and left-wing populist parties in France. By including the vote for the incumbent and the mainstream opposition, we take into account the entire political space and its influence on the populist vote. For this purpose, we use two econometric methods : multinomial logit and nested logit estimations. We find a positive link between unemployment and both right-wing and left-wing populist votes : egotropic current unemployment (i.e. being unemployed) and egotropic and sociotropic accumulated unemployment (i.e. the personal risk of unemployment and department long-term unemployment rate) encourage voters to choose not mainstream parties but populist parties. The distinction between right-wing and left-wing populist votes lies on the voters' own explanation of unemployment : basically, when voters consider that unemployment is mostly due to immigration, they will be more prone to vote for a right-wing populist party rather than a left-wing populist party.

"European funds : a shield against populism ? Evidence from EP elections" - Laura DUTHILLEUL

In this paper, we analyse the economic relationship between European funds and populist vote in EP election, at voter level. We use the 2004, 2009, 2014 and 2019 European Election Studies (EES) and the "Historic EU payments - regionalised and modelled" database made by the European Commission - DG Regional. We find that one-percentage-point increase in EU funds per capita at NUTS2 level during the last MEP mandate corresponds ceteris paribus to a decrease of around 2% in the individual probability to vote for a populist party in EP election. We contribute to the literature by testing for the first time the conditioned effect of EU funds on populist vote in EP election by the populist nature of national and regional incumbents. We investigate whether there is a significant difference between voters with a populist incumbent and those with a non-populist incumbent regarding the relationship between EU funds and their individual probability to vote for a populist party in EP election. We do not find any empirical evidence of this difference : whatever the nature of the incumbent (populist or non-populist), EU funds always have a negative link with populist vote in EP election, at voter level.

"Education: a shield to dictatorship? Evidence from Pakistan " - with Maqsood ASLAM

This study attempts to explore the answer for the question: is there any minimum/threshold level of education that is inevitable to strengthen the democratic process in order to avoid these authoritarian episodes? By using data from different waves (1997, 2001 and 2012) of WVS (World Value Survey) for Pakistan and based on logit and 2SLS regression estimates we find that respondents’ education level is key factor responsible for supporting dictatorship and respondents having university degree attach great importance towards supporting the democracy, even during the army rule. Moreover, we find that living in Punjab province and having high education reinforce the support for democratic regime.

Conference and Seminars Presentations

3rd June 2025 : ESPI2R Intern Seminar - Axis 2 (Marchés immobiliers et investissements), Laboratoire ESPI2R, École Supérieure des Professions

Immobilières (ESPI) Paris (France)

Speaker for "Far-right vote in the 2024 European and Legislative elections in France: same old, same old ?"

8-9th May 2025 : Malmö Real Estate Research Conference, Malmö University (Sweden)

Speaker for "Price elasticity of housing supply in France: a multi-level estimation" - with Jordan MOUREAUX

Presentation by Serine MECHIDE of "Aligning housing supply with needs: a prospective analysis backed on a Long

Short-Term Memory Machine learning model" - authors : Samuel DEPRAZ, Laura DUTHILLEUL and Serine MECHIDE

5-6th May 2025 : 2nd Welfare & Policy Conference, Bordeaux School of Economics, Université de Bordeaux (France)

Speaker for "Far-right vote in the 2024 European and Legislative elections in France: same old, same old ?"

27-28th March 2025 : Séminaire international : Les défis de la démocratie, Maison Européenne des Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société (MESHS) Lille

Nord de France, Sciences Po Lille (France)

Speaker for "Facteurs économiques et populisme : décryptage d’une menace pour les démocraties avancées"

6-7th June 2024 : 2024 Annual Congress of the Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, University of Lucerne (Switzerland)

Speaker for "European funds : a shield against populism ? Evidence from EP elections"

24th June 2022 : 2nd PhD day - 2ème journée doctorale en économie du LEM, Université de Lille

Speaker for "European funds : a shield against populism ? Evidence from EP elections"

9-10th December 2021 : Les patriotismes : formes, pratiques et mutations au 21ème siècle, Académie militaire de Saint-Cyr Coëtquidan

Speaker for "Les fonds européens, un bouclier efficace contre le populisme : le sentiment patriotique européen à l'épreuve"

5-7th July 2021 : Summer Academy : The economics of populism : Drivers and consequences, IOS/APB/EACES (Germany)

Speaker for "Unemployment : populist vote's motto"

21st-22nd April 2021 : European Public Choice Society (EPCS), IESEG Business School, Université de Lille and CNRS

Speaker for "Unemployment : populist vote's motto"

16-17th December 2020 : Workshop EP@P Economics & Politics, Sciences Po Paris

Speaker for "Unemployment : populist vote's motto"

18-19th February 2020 : 13th RGS Doctoral Conference in Economics, TU Dortmund University (Germany)

Speaker for "Unemployment : populist vote's motto"

Discutant to Nanna Lauritz SCHÖNHAGE (APEC, Vrije Universiteit Brussel) and Benny GEYS (Norwegian Business School -

BI)'s paper : "Exit or Voice ? Politicians’ Reactions to Scandals that Damage the Party Brand"

6th February 2020 : Intern Seminar at LEM, University of Lille

Presentation of "Unemployment : populist vote's motto"

16-17th December 2019 : Workshop EP@B Economics & Politics, ULB (Bruxelles)

Speaker with Maqsood ASLAM of "Education: a shield to dictatorship? Evidence from Pakistan " - with Maqsood ASLAM

Discutant to Nicolas LAGIOS (ULB, CEB), Pierre-Guillaume MÉON (ULB, CEB) & Ilan TOJEROW (SBS-EM, ULB, DULBEA, CEB,

IZA)'s paper : "Does it pay off to demonstrate against the far right ?"

Discutant to Nadiya UKRAYINCHUK (LEM) & Hubert JAYET (LEM)'s paper : "Immigration issue in French presidential

election choice"

14-15th November 2019 : Research Initiative on the Economics of the Middle East, Edinburgh (Scotland)

Presentation by Maqsood ASLAM of "Education: a shield to dictatorship? Evidence from Pakistan " - authors : Laura

DUTHILLEUL and Maqsood ASLAM

22nd March 2019 : 7ème Journée Doctorale "Analyse des Politiques Publiques", Le Havre Normandie University (France)

Speaker for "Do economic inequalities poison democracy ?" - with Quentin DAVID and Abel FRANÇOIS

28th February-2nd March 2019 : The 3rd International Conference "The Political Economy of Democracy and Dictatorship", Münster (Germany)

Speaker for "Do economic inequalities poison democracy ?" - with Quentin DAVID and Abel FRANÇOIS

Discutant to Adilzhan ISMAILOV (University Pompeu Fabra) & Antonio CICCONE (Mannheim University)'s paper : "Income

inequality and political transitions"

17th January 2019 : Intern Seminar at LEM, University of Lille

Presentation of "Do economic inequalities poison democracy ?" - with Quentin DAVID and Abel FRANÇOIS

19-20th December 2018 : Workshop EP@L - Economics & Politics, University of Lille

Local committee with Nicolas OOGHE

Discutant to Caroline Le Pennec-Caldichoury (UC Berkeley)'s paper : "Political Discourse and Competition: An analysis of

campaign manifestos at French legislative elections from 1958 to 1993"

5th April 2018 : Intern Seminar at LEM, University of Lille

Presentation of my thesis project and beginning of my first article : "Do economic inequalities poison democracy ?"

Science popularization

2025 : Participation in DECLICS with the ESPI2R Laboratory
2018-2019 : SchoolLab Mentor at the Diderot College (Arras, France)
6-8th June 2018 : Creathon French-Dutch “Health and well-being in the built environment” at Eindhoven (Netherlands)
March 2018 : Regional finalist at the PhD competition "Ma thèse en 180 secondes" (equivalent to "Three minute thesis" Challenge)

Research responsabilities

2025 - : Member of the Léna MONASSE's individual monitoring committee (Comité de Suivi Individuel - CSI) for her PhD thesis.
2025 : Scientific Expert in the evaluation process of AAPG for the scientific panel CE26 - Individuals, companies, markets, finance, management.
26th-28th November 2024 : Chair with Benjamin FRAGNY at the International Real Estate Conference (IREC) of the session "S08 - Data in Real Estate", Paris
20th-21st June 2022 : Organization team member of the 1st Workshop on Migration and Family Economics at IESEG Paris
2019-2022 : PhD student representative in LEM council
2019-2021 : Co-organizer of LEM extern seminar (MoF and ADP axes) with Anne-Laure SAMSON and Michael BREI
Reviewer for Economia Politica