An inside view of the Austrian parliament -- the Nationalrat -- one of the most powerful legislatures in Europe (see this article for a longitudinal comparison of legislative policing powers for 15 European parliaments).
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Current Working Projects
Current Working Projects
My current research projects include a book manuscript, tentatively titled From Votes to Power: Electoral Performance and Government Participation in Multiparty Democracies (with Georg Vanberg at Duke University). It addresses the question of whether, how, and under what conditions winning votes makes a party more likely to enter government and losing votes makes it more likely to be turned out of power. As it happens, in multiparty democracies -- where executive coalitions are typically necessary for governance -- the answer is not as clear-cut as "winners are more likely to get in" and "losers are more likely to be thrown out." In fact, looking purely at vote gains and losses, we show that the reverse is true more than half the time! This book manuscript explores why, and discusses how different institutions and party systems can tighten the connection between the votes of citizens and government power for political parties. Check back for updates!
In the meantime, you can find below a selection of some of my papers in progress on the broader theme of executive coalitions and democratic representation, as well as methodological contributions also relating to that theme.
Martin, Lanny W. "From Manifesto Text to Expert Salience: Calibrating Large Language Models to Measure Party Issue Priorities." Link to paper. (Appendix available upon acceptance for publication.)
Martin, Lanny W., and Georg Vanberg. "Refining Gamson: The Isometric Log-Ratio Transformation and Portfolio Proportionality in Multiparty Governments." In press, Political Analysis. Link to paper.
Martin, Lanny W., and Georg Vanberg. "From Ballot Box to Cabinet Table: Electoral Trajectories and Government Participation in Parliamentary Democracies." Link to paper.
de Marchi, Scott, and Lanny W. Martin. "Robust Inference in Government Formation Models: Ensemble Shapley Analysis across the Rashomon Set."
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