Citation statistics are available at my Google Scholar profile.
(joint with Beata Luczywek, Julian Betts, and Eli Berman)
Abstract: The expanded Child Tax Credit (CTC) provided taxpayers up to $3,600 per child for tax year 2021, but take-up was incomplete. We experimentally test whether information frictions and costs of filing taxes explain non-take-up. We designed an information and counseling intervention contacting parents through school districts, coupled with assistance from local Volunteer Income Tax Assistance (VITA) programs. According to tax records, treatment increased tax filing by 2 percentage points, increased CTC claims by (a statistically insignificant) 1.9 percentage points, and tripled filing through VITA. Effects were concentrated among previous nonfilers and Spanish speakers, demonstrating the value of targeted outreach.
(joint with Beata Luczywek)
Abstract: We estimate income effects on earnings using the 2021 expanded Child Tax Credit. Children born in January 2016 were eligible for a credit of $3,600, while children born in December 2015 were eligible for $3,000. We use administrative tax data and a regression discontinuity design to estimate the earnings response to this temporary, one-year $600 increase in non-labor income. We find that employment as reported by third parties decreased by 2.0% in 2021 and 1.1% in 2022 in low-income families, with no effect on families with higher incomes. However, this decrease in wages was offset by an equivalent increase in self-employment income reported on tax returns, implying either increased misreporting or no overall change in real employment.
(joint with Jacob Goldin, Ithai Lurie, and Vedant Vohra)
Abstract: The Affordable Care Act (ACA) included an individual mandate to purchase health insurance, which was repealed in 2019. We use administrative tax data to examine the impact of the penalty repeal on health insurance coverage. Using difference-in-differences and border discontinuity approaches exploiting states that created their own penalty in response to the mandate repeal, we find minimal coverage effects. However, a regression discontinuity design comparing people just above and below an income cutoff for the penalty suggests a stronger effect, which implies heterogeneity in responses to the mandate.
Abstract: The Child Tax Credit (CTC) is a major earnings subsidy in the US tax and transfer system, but its effects have received little research attention compared to the Earned Income Tax Credit. I identify the effects of the CTC on extensive margin labor supply using a difference-in-discontinuities design, exploiting the fact that parents lose eligibility for the credit when a child turns 17. Focusing on the credit's effects among lower-income households in the Survey of Income and Program Participation, I find that loss of the credit leads to an 8.4 percentage point reduction in the probability a child's parents are employed. The implied elasticity is at the upper bound of previous studies, consistent with an intertemporal substitution response.
Slides from job market talks.
Slides on using Stata with Python for this project (and code).
(joint with Remy Levin)
Abstract: Traditional transfer programs in the United States provide few benefits to childless adults, so little is known about the effects of these policies on able-bodied adults without dependents (ABAWDs). We examine a novel source of variation in the SNAP (Food Stamps) program, in which unemployed ABAWDs have differential eligibility based a discontinuity in their local area's unemployment rate. We find causal evidence that removing SNAP work requirements decreases hours worked, but also reduces homelessness and property crimes. These findings help inform debates about basic income programs and related policies.
(joint with Chelsea Swete and Alyssa Brown)
Abstract: Sales taxes that are uniform across products are traditionally seen as more efficient than good-specific taxes, but broad-based taxes can be regressive for low income households. We examine taxation of diapers, an inelastic health product, and find substantial income variation in responsiveness to taxes using retail scanner data. Exploiting changes to sales tax exemptions for diapers in New York State and Connecticut, we find that sales of diapers rise by 5.4% in low income areas when taxes are removed, accompanied by a 6.2% fall in spending on children’s pain medications. These results imply that sales tax exemptions for diapers can have positive spillover effects on health and well-being.
Available at http://www.urban.org/author/kye-lippold. See full list in my CV.