Papers

In review

Strommen, K. and Cooper, F.
Physical and Unphysical Causes of Nonstationarity in the Link between Barents-Kara sea ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation
Submitted to Geophysical Research Letters (2023).

Published

Strommen, K., MacRae, M. and Christensen, H.
Using reliability diagrams to interpret the `signal-to-noise paradox' in seasonal forecasts of the North Atlantic Oscillation.
Geophysical Research Letters (2023). Link.
Strommen, K., Woollings, T., Davini, P., Ruggieri, P., and Simpson, I. R.
Predictable Decadal Forcing of the North Atlantic Jet Stream by Sub-Polar North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures.
Weather and Climate Dynamics (2023). Link.

Dorrington, J., Strommen, K., Fabiano, F., & Molteni, F.
CMIP6 models trend toward less persistent European blocking regimes in a warming climate.
Geophysical Research Letters (2022). Link
Strommen, K., Juricke, S., and Cooper, F.
Improved teleconnection between Arctic sea ice and the North Atlantic Oscillation through stochastic process representation.
Weather Clim. Dynamics (2022). Link
Strommen, K., Chantry, M., Dorrington, J.and Otter, N.
A topological perspective on weather regimes.
Climate Dynamics (2022). Link
Dorrington, J., Strommen, K., and Fabiano, F.
Quantifying climate model representation of the wintertime Euro-Atlantic circulation using geopotential-jet regimes.
Weather Clim. Dynamics (2022). Link
Vidale, P.L., Hodges, K., Vannière, B., Davini, P., Roberts, M.J., Strommen, K., Weisheimer, A., Plesca, E. and Corti, S.
Impact of stochastic physics and model resolution on the simulation of tropical cyclones in climate GCMs.
Journal of Climate (2021). Link.
Strommen, K.
Jet latitude regimes and the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2020). Link.
Dorrington, J. and Strommen, K.J.
Jet speed variability obscures Euro‐Atlantic regime structure.
Geophysical Research Letters (2020). Link.
Fabiano, F., Christensen, H.M., Strommen, K., Athanasiadis, P., Baker, A., Schiemann, R. and Corti, S.
Euro-Atlantic weather Regimes in the PRIMAVERA coupled climate simulations: impact of resolution and mean state biases on model performance.
Climate Dynamics (2020). Link.
Weisheimer, A., Befort, D.J., MacLeod, D., Palmer, T., O’Reilly, C. and Strommen, K..
Seasonal Forecasts of the Twentieth Century.
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (2020). Link.
Strommen, K. and Palmer, T.N.
Signal and noise in regime systems: A hypothesis on the predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation.
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society (2019). Link.
Strommen, K., Watson, P.A. and Palmer, T.N.
The impact of a stochastic parameterization scheme on climate sensitivity in EC‐Earth.
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres (2019). Link.
Strommen, K., Christensen, H.M., MacLeod, D., Juricke, S. and Palmer, T.N.
Progress towards a probabilistic Earth system model: examining the impact of stochasticity in the atmosphere and land component of EC-Earth v3. 2.
Geoscientific Model Development (2019). Link.
Strommen, K., Mavilia, I., Corti, S., Matsueda, M., Davini, P., von Hardenberg, J., Vidale, P.L. and Mizuta, R.
The sensitivity of Euro‐Atlantic regimes to model horizontal resolution. Geophysical Research Letters (2019). Link.
Strømmen, K., Christensen, H.M., Berner, J. and Palmer, T.N.
The impact of stochastic parametrisations on the representation of the Asian summer monsoon.
Climate Dynamics (2018). Link.

Technical reports

The following were reviewed and published in 2020 by the EU Scientific Commission as part of the Horizon 2020 PRIMAVERA Project. My authorship status has been indicated.

(Lead author) Deliverable D4.4, `Assessment of representation of convection influences'. Link.

(Co-author) Deliverable D4.1, `Quantification of the relative cost/performance of different approaches to going beyond simple parameterisation'. Link.

SELECTED FIGURES

Projected decrease in winter Euro-Atlantic weather regime persistence in the ssp585 CMIP6 scenario. From Dorrington and Strommen et al., GRL (2022).

Correlations (1980-2015) between November Barents-Kara sea-ice and the DJF NAO in the coupled CMIP6 historical simulations (black), 6 deterministic EC-Earth3 simulations (red) and 6 EC-Earth3 simulations with stochastic sea-ice and ocean schemes added (blue). The stipled line shows the correlation in ERA5. The teleconnection has been significantly amplified by the inclusion of stochasticity.
From Strommen, Juricke and Cooper (2022).

Global warming in three climate simulations with stochastic physics (Stoch0, 1 and 2) and three without (Det0, 1 and 2). The stochastic parameterisations lead to a reduction in transient climate sensitivity of around 10%. From Strommen, Watson and Palmer (2019).

In (a) phase space spanned by first 3 PCs of Euro-Atlantic Z500 anomalies in ERA20C (1900-2010). In (b) the phase space obtained by regressing the North Atlantic jet-speed timeseries out of each PC. This residual phase space is visibly non-Gaussian and allows for an easy diagnosis of highly significant and temporally stable Euro-Atlantic regimes. From Dorrington and Strommen (2021).