Konstantin Ash
Konstantin Ash
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Welcome! I am a strategic advisor at StrategEast and a political science researcher. My research broadly focuses on explaining contentious political behavior, ranging from protest participation to support for ethnic violence and reasons for joining armed movements. To obtain evidence for testing theories on contentious political behavior, I have conducted extensive field work in Lebanon, Tunisia, Nepal, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine.
Below, you can find links to my published research and replication data. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me at ka663@nyu.edu.
Kegete gorge, Kyrgyzstan (2021)
Publications
Publications
Forthcoming. "Ethnicity and Strategic Repression of Protest during the 2011 Syrian Uprising" Perspectives on Politics. (with Kevin Mazur) [Paper] [Replication Materials]
2025. "Who leaves and who returns? IDPs and Returnees after the Russian Invasion of Ukraine" Comparative Migration Studies. 13 (66). [Paper] [Replication Materials]
2025. "Why Most Ukrainians Feel Anger, Hatred or Contempt toward Russian Citizens after the 2022 Invasion" Political Psychology. 46 (3): 511-529. (with Miroslav Shapovalov) [Paper] [Replication Materials]
2025. "Returning Veterans’ Attitudes toward Democracy: Evidence from a Survey of Ukraine’s ATO Veterans" Journal of Conflict Resolution. 69 (5): 763–792. (with Miroslav Shapovalov) [Paper] [Replication Materials]
2024. "Comment on: Cropland abandonment in the context of drought, economic restructuring, and migration in Northeast Syria" Environmental Research Letters. 19: 128001. (with Duy Trinh) [Paper] [Replication Materials]
2024. "Who Votes for Populist Presidential Candidates? Differential Support among US-based Latin American Diasporas" Political Geography. 114: 103182. (with Anca Turcu) [Paper] [Replication Materials]
2024. "Ethnicity and Response to Internal Climate Migrants in the United States" Political Research Quarterly. 77(2): 532-548. (with Puck Winchester) [Paper] [Replication Materials]
2023. "Fallow agriculture and climatic stress independently predict migration during Syria's 2006-10 Drought" Regional Environmental Change. 23(4): 119. [Paper] [Replication Materials]
2023. "Protesting for Autocracy: Economic vulnerability and anti-democratic protest attendance in Tunisia" Democratization. 30(2): 173-194. [Paper] [Replication Materials]
Coverage: Ufahamu Africa March 11, 2023 (16:18)
2023. "How did Tunisians React to Ennahdha's 2016 Reforms? Evidence from a Survey Experiment'' Mediterranean Politics. 28(1): 73-97. [Paper] [Replication Materials]
2022. "Populism for the Ambivalent: Anti-Polarization and Support for Ukraine's Sluha Narodu Party" Post-Soviet Affairs. 38(6): 460-478. (with Miroslav Shapovalov) [Paper] [Replication Materials]
2022. ''State Weakness and Support for Ethnic Violence in Southern Kyrgyzstan'' Journal of Peace Research. 59(6): 860–875. [Paper] [Replication Materials]
2022. "Does Polygyny cause Intergroup Conflict? Re-examining Koos and Neupert-Wentz (2020)" Research & Politics. 9(4). [Paper] [Replication Materials]
2021. ''Politics of Interconfessional Empathy and Schadenfreude in Lebanon'' Conflict Management and Peace Science. 38(6): 718-741. (with Tom Dolan) [Paper] [Replication Materials]
2021. ''Perceived Linkages to Politicians and Group Deprivation Sentiment.'' Politics, Groups and Identities. 9(3): 464-483. [Paper] [Replication Materials]
2020. "Identifying and Correcting Signal Shift in DMSP-OLS Data." Remote Sensing. 12(14): 2219. (with Kevin Mazur) [Paper] [Replication Materials]
2020. "Climatic Stress, Internal Migration and Syrian Civil War Onset.'' Journal of Conflict Resolution. 64 (1): 3-31. (with Nick Obradovich) [Paper] [Replication Materials]
2018. "'The War Will Come to Your Street': Explaining Geographic Variation in Terrorism by Rebel Groups" International Interactions, 44 (3): 411-436. [Paper] [Replication Materials]
2016. "Threats to Leaders' Political Survival and Pro-Government Militia Formation." International Interactions, 42 (5): 703-728. [Paper] [Replication Materials] [Presented at Fall 2014 Conflict Consortium Virtual Workshop]
2016. "Representative Democracy and Fighting Domestic Terrorism," Terrorism and Political Violence, 28 (1): 114-134. [Paper] [Replication Materials]
2015. "The Election Trap: The Cycle of Post-electoral Repression and Opposition Fragmentation in Lukashenko's Belarus," Democratization, 22 (6): 1030-1053. [Paper] [Replication Materials]
Coverage: Belarus Digest.
2011. "A Game Theoretic Model for Protest in the Context of Post-Communism," Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 44 (1): 1-15. [Paper] [Replication Materials]
Other Articles
Other Articles
"Post-Conflict Processes and Religion: Lebanon" Paul Djupe and Mark Rozell, editors. Oxford Encyclopedia of Politics and Religion. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. 2020.
"How Ukraine's new president broke down a historic divide." Washington Post: Monkey Cage Blog. May 1, 2019. (with Miroslav Shapovalov)
"Russia put World Cup stadiums in some surprising places. This is why." Washington Post: Monkey Cage Blog. June 23, 2018. [Underlying Statistical Analysis]
“Explaining Belarus’ Sudden Protest Repression” Political Violence at a Glance, April 27, 2017. (with Miroslav Shapovalov)
Strategische Repression und eine zersplitterte Opposition sichern Lukaschenkas Macht. Belarus-Analysen. no. 23. October 19, 2015.
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