Konstantin Ash

Welcome! I am an assistant professor at the School of Politics, Security and International Affairs at the University of Central Florida. My research broadly focuses on explaining contentious political behavior, ranging from protest participation to support for ethnic violence and joining armed movements. I primarily conduct research in the Middle East, North Africa and the former Soviet Union and have conducted extensive field work in Lebanon, Tunisia, Kyrgyzstan and Ukraine.

Below, you can find links to my published research and replication data. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me at konstantin.ash@ucf.edu.

El Jem, Tunisia (2017)


Forthcoming. ''State Weakness and Support for Ethnic Violence in Southern Kyrgyzstan'' Journal of Peace Research. [Paper] [Replication Materials]

Forthcoming. "How did Tunisians React to Ennahdha's 2016 Reforms? Evidence from a Survey Experiment'' Mediterranean Politics. [Paper] [Replication Materials]

2021. ''Politics of Interconfessional Empathy and Schadenfreude in Lebanon'' Conflict Management and Peace Science. 38(6): 718-741. (with Tom Dolan) [Paper] [Replication Materials]

2021. ''Perceived Linkages to Politicians and Group Deprivation Sentiment.'' Politics, Groups and Identities. 9(3): 464-483. [Paper] [Replication Materials]

2020. "Identifying and Correcting Signal Shift in DMSP-OLS Data." Remote Sensing. 12(14): 2219. (with Kevin Mazur) [Paper] [Replication Materials]

2020. "Climatic Stress, Internal Migration and Syrian Civil War Onset.'' Journal of Conflict Resolution. 64 (1): 3-31. (with Nick Obradovich) [Paper] [Replication Materials]

2018. "'The War Will Come to Your Street': Explaining Geographic Variation in Terrorism by Rebel Groups" International Interactions, 44 (3): 411-436. [Paper] [Replication Materials]

2016. "Threats to Leaders' Political Survival and Pro-Government Militia Formation." International Interactions, 42 (5): 703-728. [Paper] [Replication Materials] [Presented at Fall 2014 Conflict Consortium Virtual Workshop]

2016. "Representative Democracy and Fighting Domestic Terrorism," Terrorism and Political Violence, 28 (1): 114-134. [Paper] [Replication Materials]

2015. "The Election Trap: The Cycle of Post-electoral Repression and Opposition Fragmentation in Lukashenko's Belarus," Democratization, 22 (6): 1030-1053. [Paper] [Replication Materials]

Coverage: Belarus Digest.

2011. "A Game Theoretic Model for Protest in the Context of Post-Communism," Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 44 (1): 1-15. [Paper] [Replication Materials]

Other Articles

"Post-Conflict Processes and Religion: Lebanon" Paul Djupe and Mark Rozell, editors. Oxford Encyclopedia of Politics and Religion. Oxford, UK: Oxford University Press. 2020.

"How Ukraine's new president broke down a historic divide." Washington Post: Monkey Cage Blog. May 1, 2019. (with Miroslav Shapovalov)

"Russia put World Cup stadiums in some surprising places. This is why." Washington Post: Monkey Cage Blog. June 23, 2018. [Underlying Statistical Analysis]

Explaining Belarus’ Sudden Protest Repression Political Violence at a Glance, April 27, 2017. (with Miroslav Shapovalov)

Strategische Repression und eine zersplitterte Opposition sichern Lukaschenkas Macht. Belarus-Analysen. no. 23. October 19, 2015.