Konstantin Ash

Welcome! I am an assistant professor at the department of political science at the University of Central Florida. My research broadly focuses on explaining contentious political behavior, ranging from protest participation to support for ethnic violence and joining armed movements. I primarily conduct research in the Middle East, North Africa and the former Soviet Union and have conducted extensive field work in Lebanon, Tunisia and Kyrgyzstan.

Below, you can find links to my published research, replication data, and titles of several working papers. If you have any questions, please feel free to contact me at konstantin.ash@ucf.edu.

Almaluu, Kyrgyzstan (2017)

Publications

Forthcoming. ''Perceived Linkages to Politicians and Group Deprivation Sentiment.'' Politics, Groups and Identities.

2018. "'The War Will Come to Your Street': Explaining Geographic Variation in Terrorism by Rebel Groups" International Interactions. 44 (3): 411-436. [Paper] [Replication Materials]

2016. "Threats to Leaders' Political Survival and Pro-Government Militia Formation." International Interactions, 42 (5): 703-728. [Paper] [Replication Materials] [Presented at Fall 2014 Conflict Consortium Virtual Workshop]

2016. "Representative Democracy and Fighting Domestic Terrorism," Terrorism and Political Violence, 28 (1): 114-134. [Paper] [Replication Materials]

2015. "The Election Trap: The Cycle of Post-electoral Repression and Opposition Fragmentation in Lukashenko's Belarus," Democratization, 22 (6): 1030-1053. [Paper] [Replication Materials]

Coverage: Belarus Digest.

2011. "A Game Theoretic Model for Protest in the Context of Post-Communism," Communist and Post-Communist Studies, 44 (1): 1-15. [Paper] Data: [Replication Materials]

Other Articles

"Russia put World Cup stadiums in some surprising places. This is why." Washington Post: Monkey Cage Blog. June 23, 2018. [Underlying Statistical Analysis]

Explaining Belarus’ Sudden Protest Repression Political Violence at a Glance, April 27, 2017. (with Miroslav Shapovalov)

Strategische Repression und eine zersplitterte Opposition sichern Lukaschenkas Macht. Belarus-Analysen. no. 23. October 19, 2015.

Working Papers

"Effects of Climate Variability on the Onset of the Syrian Civil War'' Revise and Resubmit at Journal of Conflict Resolution. (with Nick Obradovich)

"Resentment, Survival or Gain: Identity Group Allegiance Choices at the Outset of the Syrian Civil War'' Under Review.

''Correlates of Interconfessional Empathy in Lebanon'' Under Review. (with Tom Dolan)

''Resentment and Civil Conflict Allegiance in Lebanon'' Under Review

''Insecurity, Political Opportunism and Communal Violence Participation in Kyrgyzstan'' Under Review.

"The Perils of Islamist Moderation: Public Response to Reform in Tunisia's Ennahdha Party'' Under Review.

"Take Our Democracy -- Please! Explaining Participation in Protests Demanding a Military Coup” Under Review.