Koffi Akakpo
Ph.D in Economics
Université Laval
Ph.D in Economics
Université Laval
I am a specialist of Statistics and Information Systems at Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and a lecturer at Université Laval. Before that I spent 12 months as Data Scientist Economist at Apexmachina and 12 months as postdoctoral researcher at the Business School of Université Laval.
My research interest is Real Estate risk management, Transportation and energy economics.
I hold a PhD in Economics from Université Laval. My research focused on transportation, energy and natural resources, particularly on gasoline prices and consumption and flood risk management.
Previously, I had completed my Master's degree in Statistics and Economics at the Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Analyse Economique (Dakar, Senegal) and a bachelor in Mathematics from Université de Lomé (Togo).
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We consider a decision maker who is responsible for issuing flood warnings for the population. The population is uncertain about the credibility of the warnings and adjusts its beliefs following false alerts or missed events. We show that low credibility leads the decision maker to issue warnings for lower probabilities of flooding. In practice, those probabilities are provided by hydrological forecasts. We therefore use our model to compare welfare under alternative real-world hydrological forecasts. We find that when forecasts include non-realistic extreme scenarios, the economy may remain stuck in a state characterized by many false alerts and poor credibility.