Kinya Toride

About

I am a research scientist passionate about pushing the boundaries of weather and climate prediction, from a few days to a season ahead. My current focus is AI-Analogs, a seasonal forecasting approach in which a neural network learns where to look when selecting analogs from a library of climate model simulations. Every forecast is a set of real model trajectories, so it gains the skill of machine learning without losing the physics. I first applied it to ENSO and am now extending it to global seasonal precipitation.

I have also worked on the subseasonal predictability of atmospheric rivers and on using satellite water vapor isotope observations to improve weather forecasts. 

I welcome discussions and collaborations. Feel free to get in touch.

Research

• Interpretable AI-Analogs for Seasonal Prediction

• Subseasonal Predictability of Atmospheric Rivers

• Water Vapor Isotopes for Weather Forecasting

• Earlier work: extreme precipitation, historical weather reconstruction from old diaries, and land surface hydrology

See the Research page for details, or the Publications page for the full list.

Recent

• September 2026: Our paper in Communications Earth & Environment shows, for the first time with real satellite data, that water vapor isotope observations improve weather forecasts. See the press release from the University of Tokyo.

• June 2026: Talks at the CESM Workshop and the NOAA AI Workshop on AI-optimized analogs for global seasonal precipitation.

• January 2026: New Journal of Climate paper with Greg Hakim and Andy Hoell on the roles of the MJO and tropical–extratropical interactions in subseasonal atmospheric river predictability.

Appointments

2022 – present Research Scientist, CIRES, University of Colorado, Boulder / NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory

2019 – 2022 Postdoctoral Researcher, Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington

2019 – 2022 Postdoctoral Researcher, Institute of Industrial Science, University of Tokyo

2015 – 2019 Graduate Student Researcher, Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis

Education

2019   Ph.D. Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of California, Davis

2019   M.S. Atmospheric Science, University of California, Davis

2015   M.Eng. Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo, Japan

2014   B.Eng. Civil Engineering, University of Tokyo, Japan

Awards and Fellowships

2019 – 2022 JSPS Cross-border Postdoctoral (CPD) Fellowship

2019 JSPS Superlative Postdoctoral (SPD) Fellowship

2017 Johannes “Joe” DeVries Graduate Student Award, University of California, Davis