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Publications
"Skills, Population Aging, and the Pattern of Trade," (with Andrey Stoyanov), Review of International Economics, 27(9), pp. 499-519
Abstract: Some cognitive functions, such as the ability to update skills and adapt to changes in working conditions, are known to vary with age. With population aging it becomes increasingly difficult for firms to find workers with up‐to‐date skills. As a result, countries with aging populations start losing comparative advantage in industries that rely heavily on those skills. We test this hypothesis and find robust evidence for a significant negative effect of population aging on comparative advantage of a country in industries that are intensive in skill adaptability of labor force, in both the cross‐sectional and the dynamic panel data sets.
Working Papers
"Female Labor Supply and International Trade," (with Andrey Stoyanov), R&R at Review of Economics and Statistics
Abstract: We study the effect of spatial variation in female labor supply on international trade flows. We identify the set of gender-specific skills and argue that low female labor supply reduces the endowment of female-oriented skills and undermines comparative advantage in industries which use female labor intensively. We confirm this hypothesis using two different settings. First, we show that countries with low female labor supply, measured by female labor force participation, have comparative disadvantage in female-labor-intensive industries. To establish causality, we instrument female labor supply with cross-country differences in cultural values regarding the role of women in society. Second, we confirm the main hypothesis on trade data from Chinese regions. Using spatial variation in sex ratios resulting from the One Child Policy (OCP), we rely on the stringency of OCP as an exogenous female labor supply shifter. Other things equal, regions with higher female population share specialize in industries which use female labor intensively. We interpret our results as highlighting the importance of labor force gender composition for industry's productivity. Our results imply that the effect of gender imbalances in labor supply on labor market outcomes, observed in many parts of the world, can be mitigated through international trade by utilizing relatively abundant type of labor in export-oriented industries.
Work in Progress
"Measuring Welfare Effect of the Canada-US Free Trade Agreement in the Present of Tariff Evasion"
"The Choice of Trade Agreement under Uncertainty" (with Andrey Stoyanov and Halis Yildiz)
"The Effect of Trump's Trade War on International Trade Pattern Considering Intermediate Goods"
Department of Economics York University
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