Evaluating Selection Bias in Early-Stage Investment Returns, with Aksel Mjos (Norwegian School of Economics) and David T. Robinson (Duke University and NBER) (Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis. 2026; 61(2): 841-871 .)
This paper investigates sample selection bias in early-stage investment. We use comprehensive administrative data on the universe of new firm starts in Norway, allowing us to compare venture-backed firms with ex ante similar firms that do not receive venture funding. The valuation premium for venture backing is sizeable at firm birth and doubles over the first five years, implying a substantial upward bias in VC returns relative to comparable firms. In contrast, the premium for firms receiving multiple rounds of outside equity emerges only after the first year and remains significantly smaller than the VC premium throughout the firm lifecycle..
Are Some Angels Better than Others?, with Johan Karlsen (Norwegian School of Economics), Aksel Mjos (Norwegian School of Economics) and David T. Robinson (Duke University and NBER) (2nd Round R&R at Journal of Finance)
We explore how the returns to angel investing relate to the financial, human, and social capital of the individual investors. Better-performing angels earn their higher returns through greater access to right-tail outcomes, not by avoiding losses. Wealthier and better financially connected angels invest in larger firms, but the returns to non-financial capital are substantial. Angels with relevant business experience earn higher returns than others in the same firm, especially when they take board seats. Social connections to founders and outside investors are also important. These findings have important implications for household finance and entrepreneurship policy.
Accounting Information, Assurance, and Early-Stage Financing, with Aksel Mjos (Norwegian School of Economics) and David T. Robinson (Duke University and NBER)
We study whether mandatory accounting numbers summarize latent information reflected in early-stage equity financing. Using population-wide Norwegian administrative data, we link standardized financial-statement filings to equity transactions and estimate a joint system for financing incidence, capital raised, and valuation. Earnings components improve system fit: cash flow from operations and accrual partitions each contribute incremental explanatory content not fully subsumed by alternative observable signals. To examine verification, we use the transition from mandatory to voluntary audit while production and dissemination remain fixed. Accounting items improve system fit across verification regimes, but voluntary audit is associated with financing in patterns more consistent with sorting and monitoring/governance than stronger accounting--financing relations or dominant signaling. We interpret the findings not as direct investor reliance on financial statements, but as evidence that mandatory reporting makes financing-relevant information publicly observable in otherwise opaque firms. The paper informs debates over private-firm reporting and audit mandates.
Policy Portfolios: Equilibrium Allocation in Entrepreneurial Public Funding
Governments often pursue one policy objective through portfolios of programs, yet empirical work usually evaluates one program at a time. This paper distinguishes the equilibrium allocation generated by entrepreneurial public funding portfolio from the causal effect of changing one program margin. Firms sort into broad-access direct support and selective public equity. Screening reinforces sorting, and application sequences resemble a grant-led ladder. Yet instrumenting first-grant approval with a residualized leave-one-out region–year acceptance rate yields no detectable increase in subsequent public-program participation. The portfolio therefore allocates heterogeneous firms across instruments, while marginal grant approval primarily bridges firms to private capital.
Family Equity Financing and Startup Innovation, with Brian K. Baik (Harvard Business School)
Using Norwegian administrative data, we study how family equity financing relates to startup innovation. Family-financed firms invest less in R&D and receive fewer government innovation grants. Instrumental-variable estimates based on founder-family geographic distance are negative and statistically significant, suggestive of a causal relationship. Cross-sectional patterns point to a founder-side relational-cost channel rather than investor risk aversion. Family financing is also associated with reduced subsequent access to institutional capital. Our results suggest that early-stage investor identity shapes firms' innovation trajectories.
Fundamentals of Entrepreneurial Accounting
Established Public Firms Creating Newly Public Firms with Merih Sevilir (IWH Halle and ESMT Berlin)
Korleis treffer innovasjonstiltaka gründerane sine forventningar? (How Do Innovation Initiatives Meet the Entrepreneurs' Expectations?), with Aksel Mjos and Torbjorn Arent Eidsvik Nerheim (both Norwegian School of Economics), Magma, Vol 29 Nr. 2 (2026)
What Information do Startups Provide to Their Venture Capital Investors? with Malte Lorenz, ESMT Knowledge 2017.
Identifikation nahe stehender Personen im Rahmen der gesetzlichen Abschlussprüfung (Identification of related parties within the statutory annual audit), with Klaus Ruhnke (Freie Universität Berlin), Die Wirtschaftsprüfung (65), 1079-1088.