Research
Abstract
This paper studies the spatial peer effects generated by Canada’s largest home
energy efficiency retrofit program and its impact on energy consumption within
a city in the Prairie provinces. Utilizing a decade of monthly data on energy
consumption, tax assessments, program participation, and house audits in the city,
I show that close neighbors to energy efficiency retrofitted homes reduce their
monthly natural gas and electricity consumption by an average of 2.4% and 1%
respectively. Estimates using three different comparison groups yield similar results.
Visible retrofits like windows, doors, and exterior wall insulation have a three-and a-
half times stronger impact on peer energy savings than less visible retrofits like
natural gas furnace upgrades. Further, the effect diminishes as the distance to
neighbors increases.
Refereed Publication
“Conditional demand analysis as a tool to evaluate energy policy options on the path to grid decarbonization,” (with Maya Papineau, Guy R. Newsham, and Sarah Brice), Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews (Q1), Volume 149, October 2021
Abstract:
We implement a conditional demand analysis (CDA) using a large dataset of electricity consumers in a Canadian province with a high market share of electric heating technologies. In doing so we also provide a unifying review of the breadth of interdisciplinary applications of CDA, beginning from the earliest studies up to the present, and test for evidence of unobservable variable bias from random effects panel data estimators. We find that local (i.e. minisplit) heat pumps and thermostat setbacks show the largest electricity savings. Central heat pumps generally do not save heating electricity compared to electric baseboards, and exhibit higher cooling season consumption compared to local heat pumps. We also observe a consistent decline in electricity consumption for newer homes, with the largest effects in the post-2010 period. Our results can inform research to identify promising technologies that support a shift towards large-scale electrification and decarbonization of energy end-uses, on the basis of robust statistical analysis utilizing realized household consumption data.
Working Papers
“Evaluating a major home energy efficiency retrofit program: long-run savings, realization rates and the distribution of benefits", with Nicholas Rivers and Maya Papineau, Carleton Economics Working Papers, CEWP 22-09.
Media coverage and blog posts:
Abstract
This paper provides evidence on the realized energy and bill savings from Canada's national energy retrofit program. We use utility data from all single-family homes in a mid-sized Canadian city and detailed energy audit records from the EnerGuide for Homes database, which includes modeled predictions of natural gas and electricity savings from all retrofit adoptions undertaken in Canada's ecoEnergy rebate program. We find that model-recommended retrofits adopted by households reduce natural gas consumption for up to 10 years in the average participating home by about 21%, representing 60% of predicted natural gas savings. Whole-envelope retrofits are predicted to reduce natural gas consumption by 67%, but in practice only half of these savings are realized. Several recommended retrofits do not save any natural gas or energy overall, including some insulation measures and new windows and doors. These shortfalls in actual natural gas savings result in gas bill reductions that are less than half what would occur if projected savings were realized.
“Realized Savings from Canada’s Energy Codes” (with A. Alekhanova and M. Papineau). Draft available upon request.
Abstract
We assess realized energy and air leakage changes in homes constructed before versus after new building energy code adoptions in three Canadian provinces: Ontario, New Brunswick, and Alberta. We find no energy or air leakage reductions attributable to more stringent code requirements. We find no evidence that natural gas consumption declined among houses built up to five years before or five years after a code change in Alberta and Ontario. The estimated savings are also not in line with ex-ante engineering predictions of energy savings. Instead, a generalized improvement in residential electricity consumption and air leakage rates is observable at least three to five years before any new code adoptions, depending on the province. These pre-existing trends in electricity consumption and air leakage may point to changes in building industry practice preceding new building code adoptions, though further investigation is required to assess the drivers of these changes.
“Outdoor Temperature and Indoor Productivity in an Archetypal Service Sector Task: Evidence from the Filling in of 29,890 Forms” (with A. Heyes). Draft available upon request.
Abstract
Amid the rising concerns of climate change, it is important to understand how economies function at higher outdoor temperature. Evidence show that labor productivity in the manufacturing sector declines on hot days. We extend this research agenda to common work tasks in the service sector. We test the effect of outdoor temperature on the time taken to complete household questionnaire. Data is drawn from India Human Development Survey (IHDS) 29,890 interviews executed by 204 field-workers. In our preferred specification which includes spatial, temporal, and interviewer fixed effects, and controls for various potential confounders, the coefficient on temperature is a precisely-estimated zero in climate-protected and unprotected homes. We rule out effects on interview duration bigger than an increase of 2 percent in response to 10°C increase in maximum temperature on the day of the interview with 95% assurance.
Work in Progress
Addressing Hassle Costs: Man versus Machine” (with S. Houde, N. Rivers and M.Papineau) Pre-Analysis Plan
Abstract
In this study, we develop a framework to formalize the concept of hassle costs in a utility maximization framework. First, we relate hassle costs to the shadow cost of leisure. Second, we propose an experimental procedure to elicit the distribution of marginal hassle cost in sample population. Third, we implement and validate our approach in a large-scale field experiment promoting the adoption of heat pump technology. One important set of goals of this study is to increase home energy retrofit adoption and identify barriers in this context. The retrofits we will focus on are heat pumps. We intend to carry a household mailer campaign in which the mailers would include the value of available rebates and benefits of heat pumps and also make use of a survey to quantify hassle costs that may impede heat pump uptake. The main contribution of this research is providing a quantification of the marginal hassle cost associated with the increase in the adoption of low-carbon technologies.
Policy Papers
“Increasing Provincial Offences Act Fine Payments: Field-Experimental Evidence from York Region, (with A. Brodeur and Ontario’s Behavioral Insights Unit )
“Application of Non-Quantitative Game Theory to Investigate the Nile Basin Conflict”, ACEEES Specific Interdisciplinary Research Report, Japan, 2016
“Coalition Analysis in the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution, case study on the Egyptian Revolution 2011”, TokyoTech annual Poster booklet, Japan, 2014