Research

Abstract: Abstract Climate policy is far from certain in the United States. Major clean energy tax credits have experienced repeated cycles of short-term renewal and expiration, and the US government's environmental policies tend to be greatly affected by changes in the political affiliation of the administration. Given that, the investigation into the uncertainty of climate policy and its economic and environmental impacts in the US is paramount. I develop a dynamic stochastic model of the US economy with major carbon-emitting sectors, explicitly incorporating the uncertainty and varying stringency of the government's climate policies. The simulation results highlight that, in the face of policy uncertainty, the investment decisions can be preempted or delayed depending on the current policy stringency, and a deterministic model can over-predict CO2 emissions, 8-12% more than when a stochastic model is used. The examination of policy timing scenarios reveals that achieving lower emissions in 2050 requires enacting stricter policies close to the target year whereas minimizing the cumulative emissions, thus contributing less to global warming, is accomplished by earlier adoption of policies, though possibly repealed later. The analysis further suggests that scenarios with earlier policy adoption are associated with up to 35% lower abatement costs than those with later policy adoption. Lastly, an extended model that considers learning-by-doing effects in cost reductions for low-emitting technologies shows that subsidies might be required by the mid-century to sustain the momentum of transitioning to solar and wind energy. The research would have policy implications for the significance of stringency and timing of the climate policy adoption and pathways to meet the US mid-century climate goal and mitigate global climate change.

Abstract: Circular economy solutions within the food system have prioritized prevention as the preferred approach to keeping valuable materials in economic circulation. Prevention policies can be formulated as carrots, e.g., interventions to reduce waste abatement costs, or sticks, e.g., waste disposal taxes, and applied at one or more segments along the food supply chain (e.g., consumers, retailers). We develop a general equilibrium model of the U.S. Midwest that endogenizes food waste decisions at each supply chain segment. Our results identify the unique mechanisms behind each intervention: with a consumer food waste tax, 88% of GHG emissions reduction comes from reduced food demand (and thus supply); with a cut in consumer waste abatement costs, 28% of reduction comes from decreased system-wide landfill deposits and 64% from reduced food supply. Our results also suggest that policies aimed at food retailers have much smaller impacts and carrots and sticks can complement one another. 

Abstract: This paper aims to inform the policy plans toward decarbonization of the electricity sector by providing a quantitative analysis of different policy scenarios and their impacts on the US regional economy. The study develops a neoclassical growth model for the US economy incorporating state-level heterogeneities in energy sectors and economic interactions between states. Primarily, the suggested model intends to analyze how different states experience the national-scale energy transition process. The results would inform future transition policies. As a preliminary analysis, I examined two distinct states, California and Wyoming. Wyoming suffers a substantially larger drop in the state gross output and welfare than California does when the constraint of a carbon-free electricity target is introduced. The economic impacts are observed via several channels, including the resource extraction sector, fossil-fuel electric power sector, and trade of those products.