Working Paper
Migration Restrictions, College Choices, and Spatial Skill Sorting (with Ben Zou) [Draft] [JMP Version]
Abstract: When choosing where to attend college, students may also consider future job opportunities in the city where the college is located, especially when post-graduation mobility is limited by migration frictions. This paper examines how such frictions shape college choices in China, where mobility is constrained by both formal migration restrictions and informal barriers. Using a national administrative dataset on four-year college admissions from 2005 to 2011, we show that relaxing migration restrictions through hukou reforms enabled colleges in cities that implemented reforms to attract higher-quality students. The largest gains occurred at colleges located in cities that are economically more developed than students' origins, consistent with improved local labor market prospects as the underlying mechanism. Counterfactual analysis based on a college choice model indicates that expanding hukou access to higher-wage cities strengthens the sorting of stronger students toward those destinations. However, when informal migration frictions are lower, students face lower post-graduation migration costs and become less sensitive to wages in college cities; as a result, sorting toward high-wage destinations weakens. Aggregate welfare increases as migration restrictions are eased, although the gains are unevenly distributed. These results highlight the role of both formal and informal migration frictions in shaping spatial skill sorting and welfare.
Presentations (* indicates scheduled)
Asian and Australasian Society of Labour Economics Conference (AASLE), Peking University, Beijing, China, 2026*
20th North American Meeting of the Urban Economics Association (UEA), Chicago, IL, US, 2026* (to be presented by Zou)
IESR-Warwick Joint Workshop, Jinan University, Guangzhou, China, 2026*
American Economic Association (AEA) Annual Meeting, Philadelphia, PA, US, 2026
Southern Economic Association (SEA) Annual Meeting, Tampa, FL, US, 2025
Western Economic Association International (WEAI) Annual Meeting, virtual day, US, 2025
Midwest Economics Association (MEA) Annual Meetings, Kansas City, MO, US, 2025
KDSA Research Symposium, West Lafayette, IN, US, 2024 (Best Presentation Winner Award)
Publications
Spatial Clustering of Natural Disasters, Selection in Migration, and Economic Outcomes
Economic Development and Cultural Change, Volume 75, Number 1, October 2026 [Link] [Manuscript] [Appendix]
Abstract: This paper shows that natural disasters with higher spatial clustering are associated with positive selection in migration. Focusing on extreme precipitation events in rural Chinese counties, I analyze their effects using census and rainfall data within a difference-in-differences framework. The results show that natural disasters significantly increase out-migration, primarily by worsening local economic conditions. More spatially clustered disasters induce stronger response from younger, male, and better-educated individuals, who are associated with longer migration distances and better economic outcomes. A migration decision model suggests that more spatially clustered disasters may exacerbate inequalities in mobility. Targeted subsidies for individuals with lower productivity and higher migration costs could help promote more equitable access to economic opportunities.
Selected Work in Progress
Funding and Bargaining Power: Central–Local Government Influence over College Seat Allocation in China (with Ben Zou)
Talent Policy and Spatial Misallocation (with Helu Jiang, Rongsheng Tang, and Runsheng Wang)
Why Do Students of Different Abilities Enroll in the Same College? The Role of Idiosyncratic Student-College Matches (with Ben Zou)