Food prices (PCE) rose 0.3% from May and 3.0% from a year earlier, driven mostly by supply-side forces, which account for more than 92% of the total shock in our model

• Food-at-home prices rose 0.3% from April (m/m) and 2.6% year-over-year (y/y)

  • Grocery prices firmed modestly in June after May's flat reading. Gains were led by eggs (still rebounding), dairy, other meats, fats and oils, and a bounce-back in beef. The main offsets were coffee and fresh vegtables, which reversed lower after strong runs

  • Over the year, grocery prices stayed elevated over 12 months, with the familar leaders — beef, fresh vegetables, and coffee — all easing gradually. Eggs remained the biggest decliner but continued recovering (about -28%, up from roughly -36% a month earlier), while fresh milk has firmed into one of the larger annual gainers

• Food-service prices rose 0.2% from April and 3.4% y/y. 

  • Restaurant and other food-service prices rose about 0.2% —steady and uniform, much as in recent months, though school meals ticked up a bit more than other categories in June

  • Food service prices rose around three-and-a-half percent over the year — still running hotter than groceries annually and steadier month to month, with  a broadly similar pace across limited- and full-service meals, school meals, and restaurant alcohol