Food prices (PCE) rose 0.2% from April and 3.1% from a year earlier, driven mostly by supply-side forces, which account for more than 77% of the total shock in our model

• Food-at-home prices rose 0.1% from April (m/m) and 2.6% year-over-year (y/y)

  • Grocery prices were essentially flat in May—a slowdown from April. Gains in eggs, fresh milk, sugar and sweets, seafood, and coffee were largely offset by declines in fats and oils, other meats, and processed dairy, plus a pullback in beef after its April jump

  • Over the year, grocery prices stayed elevated with the same wide spread: beef, fresh vegetables, and coffee led, while eggs sat far below their year-ago level and dragged the milk/dairy/eggs group lower. Magnitudes eased a little from April but the pattern held

• Food-service prices rose 0.3% from April and 3.5% y/y. 

  • Restaurant and other food-service prices rose about a quarter percent again—steady and uniform across categories, much as in April and little changed from month to month

  • Food service prices are still rising faster than groceries over the year, and they move far more steadily from month to month, with a similar pace across limited- and full-service meals, school meals, and restaurant alcohol