speed points jump blog
24 arpil 21 blog
24 april 21 blog
Northern beau quite underrated
There was probably no anything that will be winning grade 1s in the future at the 2 day cheltenham april meeting,but northern beau won a 2m hcap chase by 14 lengths in quite a eye catching time.the stewards asked a question regarding the improved form and the trained stayed she appreciated the return to cheltenham.her new rating is 129 but back at cheltenham next season in some of those 2m hcap chases,she should get in on lowish weights and in this form,I think she will be tough to beat.
Allmankind I don’t think stayed
as he just won a grade 2 over 2m4.5f may seem weird,but the jockey was allowed to crawl the first circuit which helped him.malystic I was keen on due to his line sof form with protektorat,and he looked to be going well in the home straight and he found nil a she didn’t stay as well.the final sections of allmankind weren’t that good in comparison to the other chases and given his high rating which I agree with,I have to conclude he didn’t stay that well.this was a good move by skelton as he found a weak race for him ,but I felt he could of won the celebration chase at sandown without shishkin there.of 160,skelton may be tempted for the paddy power,but I would have reservations ,firstly as I say,he may not of stayed that well and secondly ,its at cheltenham,a course he seems to be having issues with.the tingle creek looks the obvious target to me ,but now he’s won over 2m4f,we may see another route taken as skelton may be keen to avoid shishkin.
king d’argent looks good for the future
the scottish champion hurdle and the 2m hcap chase were fast run races and posted way better speed points than the other races,that was mainly due to those races being run more steadily.these 2 races had a fast pace and milkwood won well,but he has been held this season too many times to suggest he will progress to graded hurdles.theinaval won at his favourite track and then was retired ,but it before the race ,I thought this would have a good pace and so it proved with grand sancy beating king d’argent for the lead who likes to front run as well.he as won 3 from 5 this season over fences,and 1 of those losses he was the moral winner at the weights.he’s fell in another race won by funambule sivola ,a horse who gave shsihkin a bit of race at aintree and he set a fast paced that day in that race he fell in.he took over at the 8th in this and burnt of grand sancy,but had done too much and set it ip for a closer,but he carried 8lb more than theinval.he’s only 6 and I like the look of him.hard to rate him due to the other races being steadily run,allmankind averaged 15.22 per furling ,theinval averaged 14.44,there was 4 furlongs difference in distance and 5 fences extra,but its around 0.25 secs on my standards,this just highlights how steady allmankinds race was and how fast run this 2m hcap chase was.there’s a 2m hcap chase at cheltenham early in the season that may be worth a shot at to see if he handles the track.I think this is the type of horse that may be underestimated in better company
Greaneteen looked good but may not of improved
In winning the celebration chase,he looked good ,but I have doubts he as actually improved.I was interested in the time for a start as the racing post moved the 3m46 standard to 3m55,despite the course record being 3m43 set by a 165 horse on good ground,gdfm in places.the rails are nearly always out at sandown and heavy ground most the season will make times appear slow.I’m pretty sure and despite there being 20 yards extra,if shishkin was here he would of gone 3m48.it just amazes me how he keeps changing the standards through the season and they just don't make sense,yet he refuses to make the cheltenham old course standards at 2m for both hurdles and chases more harsher despite fast times and course records there in the champion hurdle/supreme and champion chase/arkle a few years back when we had good and gdsf ground.its officially +3.7 faster than standard as a result of his 9 secs adjustment, but no doubt after this he will be changing it again to whatever suits him.I had a feeling this race would be the fastest easily and so it was,not due to ability,but it was the only one truly run.greaneteen was my ante post ew for the champion chase and he came 4th.in all honestly I gave up on him after the tingle creek.I was disappointed he didn’t win the haldon gold cup.he took a 12l beating in the game spirit as well.now sceau royal was my pick who won the game spirit and got mullered in the champion chase and he as ran won or came 2nd on good going for ages now,but he was 15l behind the winner.I failed to notice he can jump left ,he as got close to altior a few times and once at sandown when he didn’t jump left.on one occasion at sandown,he was beaten 24l by him because he jumped left.ptko seems to dislike sandown and/or going right handed.I had a cheeky 40-1 ew on dolos but he decided to jump poorly as well,as he has a good record at sandown and was the last horse to beat first flow into 2nd.I should be not surprised by now just how many horse sat top level run below form for whatever reason then you end up with a easy winner that on form should suggest otherwise.if shishking,allmankind and first flow run in each suibale race next seaosn,I can’t see greaneteen winning the tingle creek ,Clarence house or champion chase,but I think he will be one of those consistent types like politologue that just wins when there superior rival flops for whatever reason.
Irish gold cup for frodon looks a smart move
frodon was allowed to do what he does best ,set his own pace in front and get into a rhythm and kick on when the jockey decides to which is normally a winning move,he won,but things didn’t go to plan like in the king george and he had to fight back at mister fisher.I still can’t really rate him based on this.he got around 10 points in the gold cup as we all know he doesn't stay.he got 12 when 15 lengths to min but I feel soft ground is too much for him now after his wind op.nicholls mentioned the irish gold cup,which I think is a good move.that race isn’t really a gold cup trial as its too close.I know minella indo ran in it,but that was just to get his confidence back after a fall,otherwise if he had won or ran well at xmas at leopardstown,he would never of ran in it.sizing john was using it to test his stamina at 3 miles when he won it then the gold cup.I can’t see the gold cup 1-2-3 running again after xmas time if things go to plan like they win or run a top race in defeat.there is no point running him in the gold cup at cheltenham.nicholls does try as he did with clan des obeaux twice,but then he changes plans and he won at aintree with clan des obeaux and goes to punchestown now.I doubt first flow would of ran well here on this ground and it may be too fast at punchestown.I do hope it rains and something like soft/gdsf for the match between first flow and cps and add alloha in the mix as well.
Flic ou voyou looks smart
Despite not winning ,he was 3l 2nd under top weight and was the moral winner.when I did the adjustments this race was equal with younevercall and 4 points faster than
Scaramange but he carried 9lb more than younevercall,so scaramanger comes out the same as younevercall.flic ou voyou had 3lb more on 11st12lb,so if he in theory had 3lb less,he would of dead heated with herbiers the winner and got the same rating as the other 2 hurdle winners.the reason I highlight him is he is rated 135 and the other 2 are 144 and 154 suggesting he is well handicapped,in fact I like the look of this race won by herbiers and think it will provide a good amount of future winners.it’s obvious the better ground as helped him run way better than he has all season.I would target earl season big handicap hurdles with him of 135 as he may stay the same as he took a 3l beating or go up 1lb or 2lb most.I see he came 3rd lto to pasvolsky at kempton.he was in this race but ran poor and at kempton flic ou vou took a 4l beating but carried 5lb more.I mention this as straw fan jack was in the race and he is a horse I rate highly despite his aintree flop over too long a trip after.
Speed jump points blog 11 april 21
Protektoret comes good at last,hitman may not of stayed.
I’ve mentioned this horse as potentially the best 2m4f novice chaser the uk has got.I was disappointed when he was taken out of the festival at one of the later stages,then he ran poor at kelso at the same time.regardless of his kelso run,I found it strange they took him out of the festival.it was obvious they wanted to go to aintree as dan skelton as been doing this with his best novices this season bar allmankind.little did I know he had a wind op and wore a tongue tie, so he had breathing issues at kelso.at first I was all over hitman,but the odds of 12-1 in the morning and 3 places was too much to resist and I took it ,although I thought hitman was more likely to win.hitman 2nd at sandown to allmankind is a solid effort indeed and I was convinced he would of won a poor Scilly isle chase before falling.I now have doubts as he appeared not to stay here.it makes sense really as I’ve kept ratings for a few years now,and there’s not many top class horses I can remember that can hit the same rating over different distances.min for example was running 2 points faster on my ratings when upped from 2m to 2m4f.alloha as ran 2 points faster when dropped to 2m5f from 3m and there’s many more examples.if hitman had run to his sandown form,I’m convinced he would of won ,but he as ran many points slower and the trip looks like the most valid reason,or maybe he needs more testing ground,I ain’t sure ,but I think it’s the distance.protektoret gets 14 for this and its a bit low.I hadn’t actually got a rating for him yet ,but the times he’s was doing was good.i can’t put him to 16 like I thought he may be at the very least ,but I feel he can run better because,I think he won despite the course not really suiting him.the sharp track was a concern beforehand for me,but as he’s a classy horse,he was able to win despite this.I feel back at cheltenham,we will see him at his best.I would go paddy power with him and ryanair as 2 big targets next season.he may run in the colin parker at carlise beforehand which is a stiff track he has won at.his rating will got mid to high 150s now ,but the paddy power is too valuable to miss imo.hitman needs to go back in distance.realistically,he only has to avoid allmankind and shishkin.he’s not a graded winner yet so races like the shloer chase at cheltenham may be ideal as the other 2 focus on the tingle creek.the desert orchid at kempton is a option were he could avoid them If those pair focus on ascot after sandown.they are both owned by the same ownership and although they did meet at aintree,they avoided each other in the dipper chase,with hitman waiting for sandown instead
Clan des obeaux top class effort but do not underestimate how much races take out of horses
he hit my maximum of 20 points with that stunning effort.I wasn’t sure what rating he has got in the past,18 is grade 1 on my scale at the minimum and I’m sure he’s hit that at least with his king george wins.when I looked at this race,there was many with questions ,inc the winner after his run lto.I opted for clondaw castle as don’t underestimate course form.I’ve mentioned this before regarding how well cheltenham grade 2 handicappers do well in the ryanair,how ascot chase winners do well in handicaps and graduation chases at ascot prior,looking further back to bristol de mai a haydock specialist,he won a haydock handicap and novice chases there by big margins before his betfair wins.I only have clondaw castle at around listed class on my ratings that came from aintree in october,but given the many question marks around the runners of this race,I thought he was worth a e.w go and he ran well,but he failed to stay at the end which was a concern.he travelled well in when he got closer to cdo at 2 out,but he hit a stamina wall after.I’m beginning to think top class horses can’t put in no more than 2 top class efforts each season,and some only 1.cdo and cyrname are to me the types that can only do it once a season and talk of sandown or punchestown will surely be a mistake after this top effort.we saw the great altior v cyrname clash that effected there season after.we saw cps and monkfish not run to there best at cheltenham after putting in big times at drf.willie mullins sent very little over to aintree as most his runners ran at drf and the festival.he will be hoping they freshen up enough for punchestown.e are now coming to the end for the likes of native river and waiting patiently as there getting old now and not running as well.mister fisher as failed to complete twice now,but I doubt he will be good enough to take over these ageing stars.
Aintree hurdle a mess
i had to laugh when abacadabras won the aintree hurdle.having tipped him antepost for the champion hurdle and then he fell,it was typical he won this.he as ran borderline grade 1 times in the past as a novice,so I thought he would do well this season,and I suppose he has with 2 grade 1 wins,but he was lucky here.the loose horse gave him something to aim at in front as well as hampering buzz who closed on him well once he was clear without hassle .with 2 hurdle races only,its difficult to compare ,but I had pre race ratings fortunately and despite it being 7 points better than the 4yo hurdle,it still wasn’t that good and I don’t believe abacadabras stayed that well.his final last hurdle to the line was 0.5 secs slower than monmiral and he needed the line to come fast as buzz closed in. Know doubt he will be aimed at the hatton grace over 2m4f now ,but I feel honeysuckle would beat him over that trip.I still have faith in him back over 2 miles and see another grade 1 win next season over that trip at least.mcfabulosus ran poor ,maybe he needs genuine good ground like a chepstow and newbury at this level,but racing wide doesn’t help.to me it’s nothing to do with going a slightly longer route,it’s mote to do with avoiding crowding regal encore is the best example I can give,he races wide and I think he dislikes big fields,however,ascot seems not to hinder him when he races wide around there.maybe the confirmation of the track compared to others means horses don’t loose as much ground running wide there,or maybe the ground is better to offset running a longer trip,I don’t know,but macfabulous I feel needs smaller fields to run better.he did win a 18 runner race at kempton once,but he chaser the leader that day and had the other 16 horses behind him.has he is not a front runner,by not running wide when prominent or midfield,he risks running close to to other runners.I’m not convinced he stays 3 miles and looks like a 2m4f specialist,but there is little for them.the coral hurdle at ascot would be a ideal race for him next season to start with and the likely hood of better ground as well.song for someone was never travelling and he too looks to of had enough for the season.that heavy ground run at wincanton was a sign he was showing he was losing form now.
Monmiral to go jumping asap
i would do a allmankind straight away if I owned him.the irish 4yo hurdlers looks good and I wasn’t keen on adagio all season until a change of heart in the triumph .he had run some of the fastest times of the day,but that doesn’t mean they are good as some race as to be the fastest.you need to compare it with other races and see how big the difference is.I assumes adagio difference between the 2nd fastest race wasn’t quite as big to suggest we had a triumph hurdle horse ,but the fred winter form lines pushed me into thinking he may be better than I assumed and he ran 2nd in the triumph hurdle.he is a horse that needs a good test,ground ,pace and/or a testing track.the pace wasn’t that great in the triumph and didn’t have the speed to close in on the winner despite a stiff finish.I ruled him out of this straight away because of the sharp track,but he was coming there until that blunder at the last as a fast pace helped him.I think he will do well next season when it becomes testing and he runs at the likes of cheltenham and other stiff tracks monmiral I was sceptical of beforehand ,but the opposition looked weak.I cant see how he will cope with racing against the uk top hurdlers and surely chasing will be a better option.he was a bit behind abacadabras on my scale and I didn’t even have him running to his best.
Bravemansgame stamina limitations again as Poor novice hurdles on day two
I was gutted to find my drogo and straw fan jack not running in the 2m novice hurdle on day two.with metier,those 3 are the best imo.I can understand dan skelton going for the 2m4f on Saturday as he as won over longer than 2m and he had third time lucki in the 2m novice hurdle,but he isn’t that good and so it proved with a 4th placed finished.straw fan jack though should of gone for it as it was a weaker race and he had ran a big time over course and distance with his 30 length win there last year.he needed the run at kempton after his break after a little injury and with his rating,he should of also gone the handicap route which he was entered I also,but connections opted for the hardest race,the 2m4 grade 1 novice hurdle.more on that down below.I don’t take much notice on bha rating with lightly raced types like novices.but belfast banter was rated 135 and he beat a 136 horse by 1.5 lengths.tbf to belfast banter, the county hurdle was the fastest hurdle race of the day,but that was because the triumph had a modest pace which cause a final time slower than it should be .do your job is a horse i have gave a average rating to in the past ,so I was suspicious before I even knew the final times.I was hoping dusart would win it easy,but he didn’t and the time was slower than the conditional and amateurs jockeys hcap hurdle.that race did have low weight winner and placed horses ,but it’s not good really either way.the pace was similar in both races,so a genuine grade 1 winner should be able to go much faster than belfast banter did from 2 out,but he went 0.6 secs slower after the last,albeit a weight difference,but it was still not good really.this just highlights has I’ve said before,too many novice races are graded races when the should not be and these aintree races used to be grade 2 events until they made them all grade 1’s recently.the not to be outdone,the 3m novice grade 1 hurdle was even slower.the uk does have good 2m novice hurdlers I think,but they wasn’t in this race,but 3m novice hurdlers are just like the 3m novice chasers,a poor bunch.this will have repercussions for the future,poor 3m novice chasers means poor 2nd seaosn chasers unlikely to win the gold cup or king george.poor 3m novice hurdles also means poor 3m novice chasers next year,although there’s more scope to improve form hurdles to fences.the albert bartlett was a poor race and the 2nd oscar elite was 3rd here by 15 lengths.when you see a 150 horse in 7 lengths 2nd beat a 142 horse in 8 lengths 3rd ,then the 7 lengths winner with no rating as surely ran to 157?I’m not knocking his 66-1 sp and his ayr maiden hurdle win as I have no ratings for ayr,but the clock doesn’t back it up at all.they ran the last 2m4f 2.3 secs slower than the 2m4f hap hurdle from earlier.hen you compare the sections of the 2 races over the same 11 hurdles ,initially,after 3 hurdles,the 3 miler’s were now getting quicker than the 2m4 hurdlers to go 1.5 secs quicker at 4 out ,but that it,ahoy senior in front now was going slower than the 2m4f handicappers 0.3 secs slower and 1.1 secs slower by the line from 3 out.this is because he is no better than the 2m4f handicappers,it was just the others failed to catch him,namely bravemasngame.now I think he’s good,but I suggested he should of gone for the supreme instead of the ballymore and this was based on his final super fast sections in the challow hurdle.all this comparison to denman is a laugh and the3m novice chase at the festival next year is all I read after his challow hurdle win.it’s amazing how someone can suggest this on itv I think it was and everyone agrees on twitter! nicholls did say he as more speed than denman and show it shows.he is not a out and out stayer like denman at all.why cant a grade 1 horse,who when using sections shows the average leader is now getting slower from 3 out ,but still fails to get him?either bravemansgame is not grade 1 class or it’s the trip.imo it’s the trip and he as too much speed as he showed at newbury and also chepstow early in the season to suggest he as the stamina as well.overall the 4 hurdle races were 14 to 20 points,this is poor really when you consider 2 were grade 1’s.I think 2m novice chases should be the starting point with him next year,but it will probably be 2m4f then 3m after and I think he could win them as they are often weak races graded novice chases are,but I will be surprised if I end up giving him top ratings if he does win 3m novice chases.shan blue is the perfect example of a 3m grade 1 winning novice chaser who doesn’t stay.
And the chases weren’t much better on day two as well
The aintree meeting is showing up how weak the top races are due to top horses missing it as drf and the festival play there part.the likes of alloha ,cps and monkfish all ran fast at one of those meetings and aintree is just too soon.cps ran fast at drf and he ran below form at the festival.monkfish ran fast at drf ,but due to the weakness of 3m uk novice chasers,he still won despite not being at his best alloha ran fast at cheltenham and aintree wasn’t even on the cards with a 3 week rest.this is why nicholls and skelton avoided the festival to win these weaker races and they won 3 races on day 1 with horses that missed the festival.they have however made mistake themselves like bravemansgame running over the wrong trip and wilde about oscar running poor as skelton told the stewards he may be feeling the effects of a hard season,he won at uttoxeter the day after the festival and had only a 20 day rest.I also suspected fusil raffles was going to run poor as he as shown in the past he can be tired after races and needs a good rest and he pulled up after breaking a blood vessel.when I looked at the 3m novice chase,I literately thought no one could win it! Espoir de romay I’m sure would of hung on,but he fell 2 form home.as a result,I couldn’t rate chantry house properly yet again this season as he was eased after the last .his final sections were slow due to the jockey not asking him,so how fast could he of gone?the marsh chase didn’t have that good of pace so he ended up with a low speed point.m guess is he is around 14 points which is not good enough to trouble 2m4f to 3mexperienced chasers .I should not be surprised really.to me the jockeys body language suggested he wasn’t going as well as the faller was.this as meant he as ended up 5 points slower than fakir doundaires speed point.now he isn’t that good,I’ve got 3 previous rating for him 15 to 16 ,from 2m to 2m4f and I’ve awarded him 16 for this.that’s grade 3 really and given he took a 12l bearing b alloha ,it kind of makes sense,so if I apply a -4 downgrade then chantry house gets 11.he got 9 at the festival when alloha got 20 but pace effected the race that day.he got 14 in the supreme ,so that’s the kind of rating I feel he is and he’s done nothing over fences to suggest he is better than he was over hurdles.he needed to run 2 secs faster,which looking at the final sections,it is possible he could of done that,so win by 10 lengths more if pushed out.that alone means he would of ran 1 point less than fakir doundaires but that still isn’t good enough for races like the king george or the ryanair.it was also painful to hear the likes of mccoy and walsh when they talk during the race when you watch it on itv.they describe what they would be doing and which horse they would like to be on and to hear walsh praising shan blue up was typical,they just saw him as a fancied horse and with a outsider in front,they sided with him despite, shan blue showing stamina limitations in his last 2 runs and failed to take any notice how well espior de romay was going and as he won a handicap lto,easily dismissed him in front.I often wonder how much these ex jockeys know about a horse form.how the hell was shan blue in control of the race when walsh butted in during commentary as he let the leader go 4 lengths clear and when asked again 2 minutes later ,he was still happy with shan blue lol!!
Fakir doundairs ran his usual race and didn’t need to do any more.I took a faller insurance bet on master tommytucker and he nearly lost his jockey early but recovered and it didn’t seem to cost him.he made mistakes after though and it cost him even before he got battered on the rail politologue as ran ran poor as he is a 17 horse on m ratings but he had bled.nuts well was 2nd and suffered the most that incident on the rail.he ran in the same race as clondaw castle did at aintree in october and again,that course form shouldn't be underestimated and itchy feet was 3rd and he ran 3rd in that very aintree race in october.
My drogo awesome again
i was a bit gutted he didn’t go for the supreme,but he took this well for his 3rd graded novice hurdle win of the seoson.he was a bit edgy pre race and also skelton as said he’s highly strung,so something to note for the future and if he does run poor one day,it may be he’s boiled over.its ended up fastest time of the day as I expected really.I like straw fan jack and was a bit miffed they went for this instead of the 2 mile race.he travelled well and although he as won over 2m4f,his big run here came over 2m1f.he passed ballyadam in the home straight ,but lost 4th to him after the last as he was a tired horse as he didn’t stay.minella dream in 2nd was a neck 2nd at haydock in january and I had a difficult day that day with the rails and shared bends haydock put on .however of the 3 2m hurdle races,he was the fastest,even faster than the open grade 2,albeit won by a 4yo and a below average contest really.guard our dreams was a fats finishing 6th in the betfair hurdle which was a fast race won by soaring glory who my drogo did beat at ascot and buzz and edwarstone in that race just in front of him have ran well this week at aintree and mister coffey just behind him in 7th as well as been placed also this week.bookies make him 14-1 for next years marsh chase for this future gold cup horse.lets hope he stays sound as the uk need future chasers like this.
More staying hurdles from handicaps?
The stayers hurdle is a race were handicappers can progress to win.we saw flooring porter beat sire de berlais in it after being handicappers previously.pasiley park as well was a 140 winning handicapper before moving to graded races.now the time of hometown boy win was officially 2.7 secs ,or 13.5 lengths faster.the strange thing was,the liverpool hurdle had the better early pace.however the field ignores those pair in front and became a peleton that was going the same pace as the handicappers were.there’s a big gap around the final bend between 4 out and 3 out and that’s were the pace difference occurred,at 3 out the graded runners were now 4.1 secs behind and then 4.3 behind but they closed in after to 3.8 and 2.6 at the line.I concluded that thyme hill may of come 4th in the stayers hurdle and I think this confirms this.hometown boy however is a horse to keep a eye on.he did carry 7lb less here but he went clear 2 out and a blunder as well would of cost him a few lengths but he won by 3 lengths in the end.this time last year he was chasing home mcfabulous who he gave 6lb that day.he ran poor after and we didn’t see him again until last month were he won and he’s improved from that effort.novice chasing might be the plan though for next year and if he does transfer this form to fences ,he may be a underrated 3m novice chaser to keep a eye on for the better races.
Funambule sivola joins the party
Watching the likes of shishkin ,you expect him to win easy,but although in no real danger,he had a pursuer who wouldn’t go away that easy .it’s tricky to compare on sections a 2m chase and 3m hcap chase with a big class difference ,but the 3m handicappers when looking at the sections when joining I at 2m out,actually ran at the same pace for 3 fences until that 40 second or so gap from 9 out to 8 out and that’s were shishkins jockey had enough and went to the lead.i do think the 3m1f hcap chase then slowed down at that point and comparison on sections .looking back at day 1 and 2,I didn’t notice the hurdle race were faster and I separate the going downgrades as a result,even clad des obeaux despite being the fastest chase winner by far,wasn’t as fats as the aintree hurdle.the same happened on day 2,but today,this chase as beat the hurdles fastest time .I’m getting excited about the 2m chase division next season with shishkin,first flow and allmankind and I believe hitman needs to be dropped to 2m and now funambule sivola as joined in.he was going well himself and this was nothing to do with shishkin having a hard season or whatever and wasn’t at his best etc,this horse was only 3 lengths or so behind and a gig gap to gumball.venieta williams will be interested in what the handicapper does I suppose,but this horse won in a canter lto as well and his only a 6yo.it seems a test of stamina like heavy ground and/or longer trips as found him out but this horse as speed indeed.he’s only a small horse as well and that 5th place this season did come in a 11 runner field
Happygolucky probably the best of a weak bunch
I wanted him to go for the grade 1 novice chases at the festival and aintree,but he ran in both the handicaps and was 2nd in the ultima before taking this.kim bailey ran espior de romay in yesterdays 3m novice chase grade 1 and he fell 2 out when I thought he probably would of won.he has 2 decent 3m chasers for next season,but I;m not getting excited about them making the grade to top level 3 mile chasers.it’s been a weak season for the 3m novice chasers,if only a few of those good 2 mile novice chasers were 3 miler’s,we may have something to look forward to from this division.I do think also at cheltenham ,he may not of been fully fit as he hadn’t run for a while but he got the job done today.more improvement is possible I suppose with him.
Irish domination again in the grand national
Uk trainers are lucky mullins and de bromhead wasn’t able to raid this meeting,but the odd few irish runners did well and they took 2 grade 1s at open level.then the grand national was just embarrassing for uk trainers,22 were uk trained and 18 irish trained and not only did the irish have the first 5 home,the majority of the uk runners failed to complete ,with a 6th ,12th and 14th places.so of the 15 finishers, 12 were irish and only 6 failed to complete and a massive 19 uk runners failed to complete of the 22 trained in the uk.even allowing for luck,you have to wonder if uk horses are even fit enough.this isn’t about the handicapping system.cloth cap and he was said to of made a respiratory noise.2 horse I backed and ran poor were noted by the stewards that the trainers thought they may of had a hard season and feeling the effects,one was wilde about oscar who I rate highly but I was concerned about that uttoxeter win 3 weeks prior and I did wonder if he had a hard race there and so it proved.fusil raffles had to have many months off after a hard win and ran and in the marsh chase,but he bled at aintree and ran poor.politologue as well bled.even if we assume the uk horses were unlucky fallers,16 horse pulled up (1 refused,same thing) 12 were uk trained horses.why the hell are horse like bristol de mai pulling up for the first time in his career?this horse keeps going in heavy ground after 3 miles as been passed?potters corner had enough as well.nicholls and skelton have had a good aintree taking 5 races but failed at the festival to have one winner.they did the opposite to mullins and de bromhead and saved there best for this meeting.I think they did it purposely as they knew they were likely to lose and have a hard festival race and then come here not in top form and it makes sense as I don’t believe all that about my drogo and he’s a big baby, we don’t see him as a hurdler etc, so that’s why he didn’t run at the festival.
I do understand why british based owners do put there horses with irish trainers now,prize money I know is a issue,but only jp mac seems willing to spread his horses around the uk and ireland and mrs j donnelly and simor munir also,but how long before they think just send everything to ireland and how long with nicky henderson train for as he’s getting on now?I wonder how many uk trainers are going to punchestown,I suspect none.what is funny though is recent years when the odd few have gone over, they have done well like simply ned of all horses, you would never thought could win a grade 1 in the uk let alone ireland,but he did it.la bague au roi as well went to drf and won,but nothing goes there no more.thyme hill missed the festival and had a decent mid season break and he could do punchestown ,but he’s either finished for the season or may run in the french champion hurdle in may.phillip hobb used to do well at the punchestown festival many years ago.is there no ambition any more?
Faiyrhouse round up
Elimay wins after a hard festival race
I will be watching punchestown with interest as we are now at the end of the season and man fast efforts are beginning to have a effect .it started at cheltenham really with some below par efforts after drf.at aintree,there was a few also poor shows with the trainers even telling the stewards they may of had a hard season after a poor effort form there fancied runners.elimay’s trainer suggested a hard race at the festival effected her in her fairyhouse win and he will look at punchesown,but he will probably call it day to her season now.it wasn’t just at cheltenham,she chased home alloha at thurlse which was fast effort.
Andy dufresne need to go back to 2 miles
i was impressed with him early in the season and thought he would be a good bet for this.it seemed to be his target fro early in the season and he missed the festival.I did suspect he didn’t stay that well over 2m5f at drf and watching this,I feel he didn’t stay again.he jumped better than asterion forlnge,which isn’t hard to do ,but if you watched him on the inside,he jumped more economically and out jumped asterion forlonge many times.around the home bend though,he found nothing and it has to be stamina.they surely have to go back to 2 miles with him for next season.the race itself was nothing special on the clock won by janidil
Echoes in rain is top class
Mullins should consider the champion hurdle with her imo.that mares allowance is generous and given the likes of sharjah are not good enough,he needs new ammo.at one point this season,I thought concertista would become his main challenger ,but he went mares and she got outstayed again.I dint do ratings for fairyhouse and just do leopardstown at drf and xmas as the rail info is useless and standard times as well seem useless from the racing post.I do average seconds per furlong as a little guide to help me and here time on a 5 race hurdle card was amazing.when all the other winners are going around 15.5 secs,she goes under 15 secs on average per furlong.now 2m trips will have faster aspf than 2m4f trips,but around 0.2 secs on average,not 0.5 like this was by echoes in rain.she cruised into the lead and it was game over.its yet another top 2 mile hurdler mullins as to join his squad as he still as 1 or 2 to come back from injury or a shortened season.
Stormy ireland is no better
She finally wins and it seems mullins as worked his magic,even kevin blake was defending nicholls on how different his gallops are to mullins.she as ran no better at all and it was a poor time.both she and max flamingo ran to 15.55 secs on average per furlong.they were doing that on Sunday whilst echoes in rain was doing 14.95!max flamingo had to run 2f more and jump 1 more hurdle as well,so his aspf is better as a result.shanroe ran the fastest at 15.09 and he is rated 123 so jeff kidder as ran sightly slower over the same 2m distance/jeff kidder race though did suffer form a slower pace that went as far behind as 7.3 secs at 2 out ,so the did finish well in the end but they got to around 2 secs by 2 out and then it stayed the same at 1 out and at the line to suggest the limitations of him.
stormy ireland set a decent pace and was slowing down at the end,but it didn’t matter as no one behind here was good enough on the day to beat here max flamingo is a 120 rated horse who got to 0.5 secs of stormy ireland as he closed in on his race,that’s 2.5 lengths.he carried about half a stone less as well so its around a 10lb better performance than a 120 horse!
Easy game not at his best
Time and sectionals in comparison to the irish national and 3m chase suggest not his bets effort in winning.he as well beaten by alloha at thursle even before he unseated.he took a big defeat in the savilles chase as well.his early season form was good,but he doesn’t stay 3m and he should of gone marsh chase last ear instead of rsa.2m4f on good seems to be ideal but he won a poor race here as I think his 2 previous efforts over too far or to testing ground as effected him
Blog festival write up 21 march 21
Well the festival is over and a total irish domination as I thought.with the likes of nicholls and skelton seemingly avoiding with many of there top horses.the big owners and many are based un the uk seen there horses to mullins and elliott.henry de bromhead before cheveley park sent them some more former elliott trained horses but he had already developed a strong sqaud over the last few yeas from the top owners but other owners as well.im glad to see him break up the mullins and elliot dominance.elliott as a fight back on as he as lost chevely park and gigginstown coming out in a few years.the morans are staying with him though and they are putting the money in.elliott lost 2 festival winners her to de bromhead and ian fergusion,but denise foster was still able to have some success here.the concern is the likes of nicholls and skelton going for other targets and they mention aintree more than cheltenham all season.I think they have realised that with mullins targetting drf then onto the festival,aintree doesn’t fit right with punchestown as well later on.we have saw some horses run a bit below form like cps after running at drf and this happened last year with notebook.by avoiding the festival and keeping them fresh for aintree,it gives them a better chance to win big races there.irs not just aintree thought,we saw skelton run my drogo at kelso and that impressive uk mare bumper winner miss the champion bumper in favour of the aintree version.wilde about oscar as well runs at uttoxeter from the skelton yard and straw fan jack who I thought was injured,runs at kempton the day after the festival as finished.I’ve mentioned these horses during the season as being smart novice hurdlers and I thought the uk were quite strong in that division,especially at 2m.we have weak 3m novice chasers at the other end of the scale.
My antepost
Well id did quite well at my first go at it with minella indo and alloha doing the business.sire de berlais was 2nd.I had given up on a few during the season inc minella indo but he won anyway.notebook and greaneteen I gave up on and as expected they didn’t win even a weak champion chase.cepage went for the ultima ,vinndication I kind of gave upon and went for the stayers hurdle,thyme hill missed the stayers and saint roi missed the champion hurdle.abacadabras fell in the champion hurdle.so 2 winners and a place im happy with and 4 didn’t even run or they didn’t run in the race I nominated them for,albeit I doubt they would of won.I will have to wait for the season to finish before I make predictions for next year so it will be around may time again when I analyse punchestown.
Day one review
Champion hurdle is top class
Honeysuckle 20
Sharjah 17
Epatante 15 (18 in past)
Aspire tower 14
Not so sleepy 13
Silver streak 13 (15 in past)
Well I will admit I got honeysuckle wrong.I have a 20 point scale.18 points is just about grade 1 now that my ratings have settled down.I wanted to wait to the season was at the end to be more confident about the ratings.she was faster than the supreme in a race that had a steadier early pace in comparison to that race ,but they finished faster.she has got the full 20 points with no downgrade.last year I felt epatante was a good winner but not outstanding.I was looking at a 18 figure for here,which is grade 1 but not outstanding like honeysuckle.this means sharjah is around 17 which I feel is right.epatante as ran 3 points (6 lengths below her best).she ran below form at kempton and as not got back to her best here.that back issue is a reason for the cause and it remains to be seen if she can get back to her best as if she run at newcastle and kempton again in top form,she should be able to win those.honeysuckle is outstanding and you wouldn’t rule out a repeat win wih here.abacadabras fell early and he is around 17 based on last years supreme,so were looking at a place here I felt if he returned to his best and given the ground,I think he would of took 2nd or 3rd.the 3 irish grade 1’s means he as options to avoid honeysuckle next year,thats if he stays hurdling as they may be tempted to go novice chasing now.goshen as now ran poor last twice he ran here.they couldn’t find nothing wrong with him after his international hurdle flop but he hung right that day,like he did here.he seems tempted by that far rail and he did that in the triumph hurdle,but he waited till the home straight to do it.right handed on testing is surely what connections have to aim for now with him.the xmas hurdle is a valid option.I feel a big win will come one day for him.silver streak took his usual 12 to 15l beating in this race.he loves kempton and that is the place for him,although similar wincanton offer two grade 2s as well.aspire tower in 4th confirmed the triumph hurdle lot bar goshen was a sub standard renewal in 2020.he could of done with the ground to be softer were he may of finished placed,but honeysuckle would of still won but sharjah may not of been that far in front of him.
Supreme hurdle not that strong
Appreciate it 16
Appreciate it won this well and he as ran fast in ireland this season.I couldn’t get my head round his champion bumper 2nd and latched onto maybe cheltenham doesn’t suit him.when he won by 24 lengths,I thought his time would beat the champion hurdle or at least be close to it.when I saw the official times come up,I was a bit surprised.this run puts him on par with sharjah’s time.as always I do sections and like to see the first obstacle to line time as last year there was a difference doing it that way compared to the official time from the flag to the line.it qas 1.69 secs slower and I timed it at around 1.5 from the 1st to the line,so no issues this year.with mullins stating he had even the rsa in mind ,never mind the arkle for next year,it makes sense now why his time wasn’t that good despite a good pace.he was probably going for the ballymore until ferny hollow got injured.I can’t give him a rating better than his 16 for this which is good,but were talking grade 2/3.lst year shishking was 18 points.ballyadam took a 24l beating didn’t have the best of races.he was 16l at leopardtown at xmas in a true run race like this.there may be a weakness in irish 2m novice hurdles this season,which will then filter through.with honeysuckle and I will give abacadabras,saint roi and aramon more chances to redeem themselves or come back from injury,then they have top fire power in the 2m hurdle division still.many horse ran below form in the supreme and I will start wih metier who I backed when I saw the rain come.it wasn’t enough though.I think mayeb as cheltenham doesn’t suit him.hard to tell but it maybe the undulations.I have him in m top 2 uk novice hurdlers and we will see him better next year on winter ground.the fighting fifth is a option but maybe ground wont be soft enough.would kempton suit?not so sure.on 148,they could go for some of the grade 3 handicap hurdles that ascot and sandown offer.I hope he doesn’t turn out to be another fiddlerontheroof who won the tolworth and flopped in this and simply is a class 2 horse now.soaring glory needs better ground but also,that 8 days less rest from the betfair effected him I felt.in the past he as showed he benefits form decent rests and that was a reason harry fry missed the betfair with metier as well once it was cancelled and ran 8 days later
Shishkin awesome again
Shishkin 20
Eldorado alen 14
Captain guiness 12
Allmankind 12 (maybe as high as 18 elsewhere)
i wasn’t surprised by his win or fast time in winning this.we was guaranteed a fast pace and so it happened and won in a fats time forcing the ultima and nh chas eto get negative ratings on my scale,this is nothing unusual as its unfair to compare those longer races to this race.I had him down as a 18 horse anyway and possible 20 this year and so it proved.lts hop he keeps sound,im sure he wont be over raced at all.races like the tingle creek and clarence house will be on the agenda next year for sure unless heavy ground where henderson may be wary.allmankind got beaten further than I thought,well at cheltenham probably not as he as ran below form there twice before I felt and it was another below form effort as he was took on for the lead early and he lost 2nd place close home.as he as won well at sandown,its not just the stiff finish thats a issue here.he takes a keen hold here for some reason more than he does elsewhere and maybe thats the problem.however he as ran fats at warwick and sandown and im looking forward to seeing him and shishkin race outside cheltenham to see how thy get on.I have shishkin only maybe 4 lengths better overall.they could meet in the celebration chase which would be a good match up.shishkin will surely have the champion chase at his mercy given what happened in that which I will talk about on day two.eldorado allen picked up the pieces as allmankind and captain guiness did too much early on and he did that when earlier in the season when gumball fell.he as won a grade 2 and 2nd in a arkle by simply waiting for things to fall apart in front of him.he did take a 15l beating at sandown though when no one fell or did too much in front won by allmankind.ground was softer that day and it appears he needs gdsf or good ground.proper soft appears to much for him.he’s around listed class so I don’t know what campaign they can do with him as he has a grade 2 penalty as well to carry.
Ultiama proves stats need taking with a pinch of slat
I bought the wetherbys stats guide and along with atr stats and gaultstats,they are good reads,and I used to be a stat man myself years ago.a few tears back I remember backing ginos trail in the grand annual at 20-1 and he came 2nd.this was despite him being a stat negative,too old,too many runs etc etc.I knew though he always ran a good race on soft and so it proved.the following ear croco bay won at 66-1 as a 12yo I think.so then we have vintage clouds who wins this at 28-1 as a 11yo.I also feel bookies price these races up using stats as the novices seems to be the more fancied types.I thought happygolucky was our leading 3m novice chaser and he was the fav for this.the grand annual as well had novices dominating the betting.I don’t think being a novice is a positive stat,or shall I say being a old horse is a negative stat.vintage clouds last won of 143 and went as high as 154 last season.he won this off 143.he was 2nd off 144 in this in 2018 and off 151 took a decent beating in this last year.happygolucky I wanted to see in the brown advisory but off that hcap rating,it made sense to come here.he was going well but seemed to weaken at the end.now I’ve come across this before and as I think he is better than he has showed here,I will put it down to fitness.vinndication last year ran well in 4th and he missed a prep run for this.I also was all over double shuffle for the close brothers and he came 3rd after not running since december.he later proved to be the better horse form that field and was placed in a king george.as I have prior ratings for happygolucky and also the 3rd and 4th horses home,I feel he is better than this and that 95 day rest was against him.I for as bailey I would go for the aintree novice chase grade 1 as monkfish is unlikely to go there and hitman will go for the 2m4f novice chase.I wouldn’t be scared of the likes of fiddlersontheroof and next destination if they went there.aintree may not suit him of course as he as a good form at cheltenham so maybe a tilt at the hennessy next year is more ideal and to keep his hcap mark as it is.
Day two review
Put the kettle on 14 (16 in arkle and ireland)
Nube negra 14
Cps 13 (20 in ireland)
Greanteen 13
Sceau royal 12 (14 to 18 in past)
First flow 11 (20 at ascot)
Another below standard champion chase
for the 2nd year running ,we have a grade 2 at best champion chase.I was on sceau royal w/o cps as he always runs 1st or 2nd with good in the going description.he got butchered on the rail by rouge vif which cps caused.I saw one jump by sceau royal were he took off slightly behind cps but finished in front of him.I did wonder if drf as effected cps as along with monkfish ,failed to run to there drf form.it happened to notebook last year.there jumping wasn’t as slick as well.cps hasn’t been at cheltenham before ,but monkfish as.cps is a 20 horse but not today.in fact this was such a poor time in the end,it was grade 3 at best.last ears was around grade 2 level by politologue and he would of surely defended his crown if he had took part and avoided trouble.the official time is 1.65 secs slower than the grand annual,although its about 0.9 secs from 1st fence to line.either way it’s poor.no the pace was the slowest of the 3 chases inc the 3m novice chase,but not that far off it.they did pick up and got to 0.1 secs of the grand annual time at the last,but it ended there and they dropped 0.8 secs or 4 lengths in time which is no surprise when I saw nube negra nearly win it.ptkon as well despite winning it is hardly a star and as took 8 lengths beatings by cps in ireland.she actually ran a but slower than last year as well.she was close up and so it proved the place to be and avoided the trouble.she was really slow when winning the shloer chase in november ,but that was down to needing the run.she does thrive on racing and as built up nicely during the season and return to her favourite track towin this.I’mnot knocking her on what she as and ,she can only beat what is in front of her,but its hardly a vintage renewal.first flow wasn’t in any rhythm and it maybe a track issue as well as ground issue with him,but he finished well considering he dropped to the rear.cps,well maybe drf took the edge of him.maybe the track,hard to know really.I see mullins is considering alloha for the 2m chase at punchestown and maybe cps run here as made him think to go shorter and try to add to his 2m champion chase arsenal,a race he can’t seem to win.
Monkfish not at his best but wins
Monkfish 14
Fiddleronthe roof 12
The big breakaway 8
The brown advisory for the last 2 years as saw 1-2-3s that have been top class.its provided the god cup winner,ryanair winner and a gold cup 2nd as well as multiple grade 1 wins in ireland form 5 runners as one as been injured.last ear was the first time I gave it a bigger rating than the champion chase which was a combination of below par champion chase,but a above average rsa chase.I say below par champion chase but politolouge hit 17 and the rsa was 19.it’s hit the same 14 points as the champion chase this ear,but the grand annual is on 16.monkfish wasn;t fluent at a few and blundered the last and as he won going away at the end,he’s worth more tha that.I do feel though maybe drf as left its mark on him like cps.if without the blunder we call it a 10 length win,I still feel he should of beat fiddlerontheroof by much further.he showed a lot of speed at drf over 2m5f ans I do wonder if the ryanair is a consideration next year.I can’t see it ,but something to think about,especially if alloha does well over 2 miles if mullins gets his way.eklat de rire if he hadn’t of fallen,may of given monkfish something to think about more as I’ve been impressed with him in ireland this season.fiddlerontheroof and the big breakaway no chance at all and the kauto star form is looking poor indeed.sporting john also a grade 1 winner lto just not good enough at all and its been a familiar theme all season in my view for 3m novice chasers in the uk.
Sky pirate fast again
he did have a arkle entry and I knew he had done fast times,but I was put of by the stats by him and I’m kicking myself now as he won at 14-1.he’s not the next champion chase winner based on this,although he would of gone close I feel.I have had to put his rating down to 14 to match the champion chase as he may of done a similar time as nube negra if he carried the same weight as him.we have saw the likes of first flow move up form handicaps to win grade 1s this season and along with allmankind running faster than politologue did at sandown,it’s just highlighting the weakness of the open 2m chase division.I think though sky pirate isn’t going to be a good as first flow.entoucas in 2nd as well is a horse that ran 2nd to sizing pottie earlier in the year.I feel that horse,who pulled up in this,hasn’t been the same since his hurdles fall and could be a horse to watch out for next year.embittered as well ran in last years fats county hurdle and he shows his best form when fresh,so he fell here,but he’s another to watch out for as maybe be better than just handicappers.
How good is bob olinger?
From my speed ratings point of view,I can’t get a proper rating on him.using galliard de mensil ,who I haven’t thought he is that fast and the 4th horse home rated 140,albeit I do take bha ratings with a pinch of salt with novices suggest.now th time is fast in comparison to heaven help us,but they had a standing start so that 3.54 secs slower time is 2.3 secs if timed from the 1st hurdle to the line.the pace of the coral cup was faster to begin with,but he was allowed to slow it down by as much as 3.5 secs or 17 lengths in comparison to the ballymore.it’s a pity there was no other hurdles races to use as a comparison as the fred winter as been moved.it as helped me by running the grand annual in its place so compares the 2m chasers,but left me with a headache trying to rate this race.I will have to leave a open rating for the time being.bravesmangame is a horse I backed and went against my gut feeling of having to much speed.his challow hurdle final sections were really fast.I think a reason challow hurdle winners don’t win this is because that race can be won by 2 milers or 3 milers as in thyne hill last year and not genuine 2m4f types.bravemansgame I though with better ground and a slower pace,which did happen,he would get home ok,but my original thinking with him was he should of gone for the supreme.wilde about oscar is a horse who I have rated highly this season and typical skelton fashion,he runs him elsewhere at the same time roughly as the festival,like my drogo.he was interviewed just before wilde about oscar won at uttoxeter as to why the british did poor at the festival,well when we have the likes of my drogo and wilde about oscar running elsewhere at kelso and uttoxeter,thats one of the reasons why.
Day three review
Alloha is top class
Alloah 20
Fakir d’oundaies 15
Tornado flyer 15
Kalashnikov 13
I did start to doubt my own ratings of last years rsa ,but finally alloha came good at top level in a awesome time,and later on minella indo.he set a fast pace and forced half the field top pull up as they were out there comfort zone,especially his stablemates as a few were never travelling.iv’e just read he may go 2m next and I would love to see him do that.he wore a tongue tie as well for the fist time,so ain’t sure if a issue is developing.the truth his,he ran fast at thurles so,its not the first time this season he’s been awesome on the clock and nearly gets 3m.I can see the king george talk going on,but I doubt mullins will come over for that,especially if he wins over 2m at punchestown if he runs in that.fdo ran a solid race ,15 points again like he did in last years arkle,but not top class.
Marsh chase as a open look to it
in comparison to the ryanair,it was a 9 point ace.however it had a slower pace than ideal to it so that caused the final time to be slower to what I though it should be.chantry house is around 13 based on last years supreme form.I haven’t really been able to rate him this year ,but fusil raffles who I was keen on I had a kind of rating for.the final time suffered because the ealry pace was too slow,theres only 1 fence less in this race so when you compare the same fences to the ryaniar,it was 0.7 secs behind initially,but that decent gap between 2nd and 3rd saw the marsh drip to 4.6 secs behind and it got slower at each fence until shan blue finally took over at the 8th and increased the tempo and it shows in the sections as they were 6.1 secs behind by the 7th fence.they did get it down to 1 secs by 3 out,but then alloah seemed to get quicker 2 out himself and increased it again to around 2 seconds over the last couple and to the line.i feel these pair are decent but not outstanding regardless of taking into the slow pace early on that effected the final time.I will leave this race open from a ratings point of view.shan blue fails to get home on uphill tracks and along with the big breakaway from last ears ballymore,they have been put in there place again here but over fences and these were out 2 best 3m novice chase hopes a few months ago after they ran 1-2 in the kauto star according to the betting market.it was the right move to go back in trip,but the track found him out.he will have a grade 1 penalty next year but the charlie hall maybe a ideal race for him.fusil raffles needed the long rest and better ground to perform better here.it was one of the slowest finishes you will ever see when he won lto at cheltenham.he did clock a better time than rouge vif did at cheltenham in november.daryl jacob did suggest 2m4f might be a better trip for him.
Flooring porter outstanding
Flooring porter 18
Sire de berlais 17
Pailsey park 16
Beacon edge 16
When I looked back at my notes over xmas,I had written a positive review about his hirse hen he won a handicap and totally forgot about it.as I was all over sire de berlais ,I ddin;t bother to look back at his form.even if I did ,I would of still baked sire de berlais I think.he ran poor that day anyway and it was felt elliott’s runner were running a bit flat over xmas.I was giving sire de berlais another chance as he has a good record at cheltenham.the way the flooring porter was setting a decent pace,I thought I had it from a long way out as he will surely be beaten,but he didn’t and poured it on.for ages now I have thought that the stayers is a open division and we have not had a good winner since thistlecrack,not even paisley park is in his league or big bucks last years pertemps was run in a way faster time than the stayers,despite good paces in both races.we saw third wind who was 4th in the pertemps of 2020 beat lisnagar oscar as well this seaoson.also in 2019,sdb time in the pertmeps was 0.35 quicker than paisley parks.thats 1 to 1.5 lengths roughly and he has beat him here by 1.75 lengths! However he couldn’t beat flooring porter who had just over 3 lengths on him.,or 1 point on my scale.he’s only a 6yo and he may become a dual winner and even triple winner as many do in this race.elliott missed a trick last year by going for a 2nd pertemps instead of this by sdb.he purposely protected his hcap mark to go for a 2nd pertemps instead of going into graded races and then the stayers hurdle.thyme hill would of come 3rd or 4th based on this I feel,so unless he improves,he may struggle,but he is uk based so an easily take the long distance,long walk and/or cleeve next year and avoid the irish.fury road ran poor but is better based on beacon edges 4th.he was expected to go chasing ,but they had another season over hurdles,but I would go chasing next season if I was elliott.
Tellmesomething girl quite smart
Tellmesomethinggirl 14
Magic daze 12
Mighty blue 11
the pace of the dawn run when they joined in at the a same hurdle of the styaes was 0.9 secs behind but after a few more hurdles,it was 3.9.I dn;t think they were going too slow,but the way the stayers hurdle was being run,they had fell a bit behind.luckily the winner at 2 out started to close in and the tie soon got doen and it was 0.2 at the line.they did run 1m less so it wasn’t that outstanding ,but I will go with a 14 speed point for here and that is quite good.she came from that strong mares hcap hurdle that heaven help us won at drf and she gave here 5lb for a 2.75l beating in 3rd.shes been held up the last 2 runs after being a front runner.i wonder hat de bromhad will do with her next season as he as honeysuckle as well ,although I don’t feel he will throw her in the deep end too soon.she may do a concertista kind of campaign and end up in the mares,but I like what I see with here.
Day four review
Minella indo can do the double
Minella indo 20
A plus tard 19
Al boum phot o 18
A fast pace in the gold cup saw 3 horses who I felt should be there take the 1-2-3.I had given up on minella indo as he was my ante post bet.he seemed to of lacked confidence after his fall,but he had full confidence here.he had joined alloah in comfirming the rsa for as top class.given the weakness I feel at the 3m novice chase division,bar monkish ,who I feel may go down in trip,he as a great chance to do the double.it’s hard to see anything from the uk now winning this for a while.2nd season chasers have a good record in this ,but so do 3rd.abp I felt was a good winner,especially 2 years ago,but the younger rivals have took over and he will be 10 next year.there’s betting talk of alloah going for the king george ,but minella indo is a god shout for that.his owner was keen to go there with monalee as minella indo ran in the savilles chase.apt being by cheveley park stud may want to win the savilles again and de bromhead could split the by using the king george for minella indo.if minella indo hadn’t of fell in the savilles chase,I’m pretty sure he wouldn’t of ran in the irish gold cup and been rested for the gold cup.I can see de bromhead doing that next year with him.the irish gold cup can come too soon I feel.I have seen a pattern were winning well and fast at drf sees horse knocked off form at cheltenham notebook last year,cps and monkfish may of been effected by running fast at drf .kemboy as ran a sticker here as he won the irish gold cup,but he as track issues as well on top.he had a hard run at xmas as well ,so I feel it was too much.apt had a nice rest from xmas and ran well again.champ didn’t jum,but lets not forget he as beat minella indo and alloha .I did have a stayers hurdle ante post on him and I bet henderson wished he had gone there now.santini as well had better ground and trip in his favour but he made a bad error.lostintranslation pulled up again,he wouldn’t of won as I don’t think he stays well enough,but its disappointing to see these good horse have issues with jumping and breating.frodon couldn’t set a slow pace and ended up going to fast for a horse that doesn’t stay that well.native river needs softr ground and couldn’t even get to the lead.what are the uk trainers going to rely on next year from the 2nd season chasers?next destination?hurrican harvey?fiddlerontheroof?the big breakaway?happygolucky?This is irelands gold cup for at least another year if not 2, unless champ can jump better.thyme hill hasn’t got the scope for fences.the king george looks a race the irish can win as well as champ is not suited to kempton.de bromhead does like to come to the uk as we know.as I write this I’ve just read de bromhead is planning to keep them apart and apt may go to the betfair chase at haydock as he’s better left handed,which is great to read.
Slow run triumph but I think it may be decent
it wasn’t a surprise to see a sedate pace in the triumph hurdle,in comparison to the county,it was polar opposite in pace terms.it ended up being 3.3 secs slower from the 1st hurdle to the line.they fell as much as 5.8 secs behind by 3 out,but they did close in well.quilixios as ran fast before and wa s faster than ballyadam at down royal.that horse seems to be overrated by the betting public, but mainly due to powerful connections.adagio was my 11th hour change from zanahiyr.it normally doesnt work but the form of the fred winter meant I had to reassess his form and I may of been too harsh on him.at 16-1 early morning price,he became a good ew bet and he ran well in a race that didn’t suit him.he looks to lack quickening pace and a softer surface I feel would of helped him ,along with a better pace.decent ground and slow pace I felt was against him more than the others ,but he still ran a great race.zanahiyr tongue tie was a concern for me ,but he is better than this.tritonic needed a faster surface according to king,but king as won the adonis before with these toes that quicken well on a flat track ,but then get found out in the triumph.the pace was slow enough for him ,but the hill was still there.he will go flat racing I assume ,but I woudnt give up on him over hurdles.kempton have a listed 2m race in october as well as the xmas hurdle.aintree if good would suit him as well.last years triumph wasn’t that good,but I feel this years will be much better.the horse for me is adagio as he will surely get his ground and likes cheltenham so will have more suitable options to win at.
Mares chase another mullins predicted domination race
i personally feel the festival should be 3 days like it was.these mares races that pop up just benefit mullins most years and a 1-2 again.the pace wasn’t that good compared to the gold cup,so I expected a better finish,but they didn’t despite jumping 5 less fences and going 6f shorter.the average seconds per furlong is around the same as the gold cup.no considering elimay ran alloha close at thurlse,I feel she as run below form here and shattered love as got closer despite lto being beat by elimay who was eased down as well.they will probably sycik to mares only races any ,but I got a suspicion elimay may turn out to be better.
Poor albert bartlett
we had a strong one last year,but like many races at the festival and outside as well,you get weak years and stronger ones.the stattler was fav which I couldn’t have at all on his form and times.now the pace wasn’t that great in comparison to the county hurdle,but even slower than the triumph,so as a result,they hit the gas 4 form home and this meant by 3 out they got 0.9 secs quicker than the triumph and 1.5 secs in front at 2 out.the triumph hurdle runners started racing from 2 out and they quickly got back in front by 2 secs,so made up 3.5 secs at 2 out compared to this race.also the same thing happened in the county,they got quicker at 4 and 3 out ,but form 2 out ,the county got faster again,despite that race having a fast pace.so the final sections of this race were poor and they hadnt gone a great pace earl on to justify it.the only reason is a poor lot of 3m novice hurdlers.we had a 144 rated winner and 135 in 11l 2nd,now I dn’t take nha ratings that serious with novices ,but the clock backs it up on this occasion.its possible the likes of stattler didn’t really stay he he lost 2nd place lto over 2m6f.oscar elite took a 18l beating lto by wilde about oscar at exeter,and I will talk more about that after this review.t I backed alaphilippe and luckily betfair offered 5 places ew.I was concened about the faster ground and so it proved,getting outpaced ,but rallying up the hill.I liked this horse since his haydock win and I think he will do well next season on winter ground.there’s just not much to get excited about imo with this lot,I suspected it beforehand and the result kind of comfirms it
Festival patterns
i should no better than to take stats seriously like I did using the wetherbys festival guide.it put me right off sky pirate and I’m kicking myself as i knew he was running fast this season.there are a few things I’ve noticed which I will list.
1) don’t ignore grade 1 horses in the county hurdle petite mouchour was 2nd and gave the winner 26lb.22-1 as well.arctic fire was similar a few years ago.add in the fact hes better on a sound surface,at 22-1 and all those extra places,he was a ew bet.aramon last year was 20-1 ,he was a novice hurdle grade 1 winner l’ami serge 25-1 2nd as well to arctic fire,another grade 1 winner.thsi is something I’ve looked for since that arcti fire result and I failed to look this year,but as aware of it last year but still didn’t back aramon
2) Watch out for irish horses running at cheltenham and even just running in the uk durig the season.the following irish winners or placed horses listed here had this in there form
Galvin was wining at the october meeting at cheltenham and rested for this.similar to ptko last year
Heaven help us not this year,but last year won a cheltenham maiden hurdle and ran twice more in the uk and eventually ran in the supreme.this horse though will be in my mares hcap hurdles notes below.
Ptko came over for the shloer chase and won it.
Mrs milner ran a close 2nd in a december hcap hurdle.she also ran in the mares hcap hurdle at drf which I will talk about below
The shunter had won the greatwood in november and had ran at kelso and won the morebattle.
Belfast banter had 2 runs at ascot and mussleburgh to stert the season off
Duffle coat wasn’t here in the triumph or fred winter,but he was over at cheltenham twice earlier in the season.
One reason I though duffle coat was over is elliott was trying to split up his 4yos.mrs milner race was not a pertemps qualifer,so im wondering if trainers are doing this get a glimpse of what handciap mark they might get or hope the bha handicapper uses the uk form more than the irish form,then go back to ireland and plan it out.mrs milner was 4th in a qualifer and ran in a 2m2f hcap prior and fell.elliott did as going to do this with sire de berlais one year,run him over 2m,whether thats a attempt to knowingly they are going to run below form over a too short trip,I aint sure.belfast banters 2 rusn at ascot and mussleburgh was curious.7l beatings of 129,he ran off 124 in ireland ,but got the 129 in this and won off bottom weight.
3) Watch out for the mares hcap hurdle at drf over 2m2f.for the 2nd year running,the winner and 3rd have won or come 2nd.black tears was 2nd in the coral cup after winning it last year and concertista was 3rd and won the dawn run.heaven help us won it and won the coral cup at 33-1!tellmesoemthinggirl in 3rd won the dawn run.mrs milner fell in that and won the pertemps.
4) Watch out for hard runs at drf .im talking about the grade 1’s really.notebook last year ran poor in the arkle.de bromhead felt that maybe a hard and fast run at drf as a reason.we saw cps not run to his best and monkfish as well didn’t run to his best and he was lucky he had weak 3m uk novice chasers around class 2 level.cps had grade 2/3 types to beat,but his class wasn’t enough to win.drf as provided many winners,but a fats run there ,not all groups of horses as the 4yo hurdles don’t seem effected,but certainly the more experienced horses seem to suffer.appreciate it race as a slow run affair but those in fast run race backed up by a fats time are the ones to be wary off.minella indo didn’t run to his best and I think he saved something as a result.kemboy was fast in winning it and although he doesn’t like cheltenham,he was tailed off.he and apt battled it out over xmas,but it was apt who missed drf to give him more time to get over that fast effort.
Why the british were so poor
Theres lots of reason ,but I see certain trainers like skelton and harry fry have been giving there opinion about it and racing tv and itv asking why also.irish owners get the bets horses from when they are young.the most expensive horses from point to points seem to be going to elliott a lot.prize money was mentioned ,but 2 things stick out for me
Firstly, we have too many graded novice hurdles and chases.the are often weak affairs were the winner never wins a graded rave again.take the december meeting at cheltenham,doncaster stage a meeting and they have a 4yo grade 2 hudle whilst cheltenham have a 4yo class 2 hurdle.doncaster as a grade 2 3m novice chase and cheltenham stage a class 2 3m novice chase.the same horses are entered in both and then we have small field races as they are split between the 2 meetings.I would scrap many of these grade 2 novice hurdles and chase,not the grade 1’s,and replace them with listed or even class 2 status and bar graded winners from racing in them.theres only a handful of grade 2 novice races that are worth the status like the kennel gate at ascot or the berkshire at newbury.l.the better novices can avoid each other all season with so many graded novice events on offer
Secondly,what are top trainers like nicholls and skeltons thinking with there top horses.once a horse like clan des obeaux as failed at cheltenham enough times ,fair enough,the course doesn’t suit them and its best to go elsewhere,but skelton made a comment saying the festival as become a monster and nicholls constantly mentioned aintree after one of his novices had won.lower tier trainers like pam sly saying eileendover goes to aintree instead of the champion bumper.are they scared?
Best example for me is my drogo winning a kelso grade 2 novice hurdle.skelton said he’s one for the future ,but why wasn’t he in the supreme?the form of the kennel gate was boosted by the 3rd who won the betfair,but skelton had already decided before that he wasn’t going.wilde about oscar wins a uttoxeter hcap hurdle the day after the festival finished,why wasn’t he in the ballymore?the 18l 3rd he beat oscar elite ran 2nd in the albert bartlett.glancing queen he battered at exeter also and she was there and although he pulled up in the challow,he aimed him for a grade 1 and bravesmangae beat glancing queen by only 3l more than wilde about oscar did.is going for a 23k and 15k race outside cheltenham more appealing then winning the supreme or ballymore?it is more or about the same prize money than coming 2nd,so is the thinking what’s the point as were unlikely to win and get placed at best?thsi may be down to the owners as well as shan blue was a obvious horse for flatter aintree ,but they ran him here.
Hitman for nicholls as well,wins at newbury in a canter in a ungraded novice hurdle and then onto aintree next where the marsh chase was there he would have been competitive in I feel.
Harry fry did try with metier and if newbury fist time had gone ahead,he would of had his favoured heavy ground.8 days later he misses the betfair as the supreme was the plan ,so they turned down a 19k more valuable race at newbury to save him for the supreme ,as the 8 days less rest wasn’t going to be ideal.the rearranged newbury meeting had good ground anyway and he was unlucky not to get his ground at cheltenham as the rain wasn’t enough to make it soft enough for him.he did try though at least.
cheltenham daily blogs from 8th march 21 i will try to post 1 race a day what i feel could be my final selections for the festival.it will be a mixture of my own speed points and stats mainly with a detailed explaination
19 march 21 blog
zanihayr is fast and he looks the obvious choice sinc ehe won on his debut.he as a tongge tie on,only a 4yo and i dont know if omething doesnt feel right about that alloha did wear a tongue tie as well first time yesterday so maybe nothing to worry about. i have not took to adagio but he as ran the fastest of the hurdles races at chepstow that day.when comparing to the ability of the horses from the other hurdles,i just didnt think he as as good as zanihayr however the fred wintr result as given him a big form boost as well,not just zanihayr by the winner.the 2nd and 3rd took good beatings by adagio and at 16-1 surely as to be a ew bet no in this race or take that skybet money back offer if 2nd 3rd or 4th
with 8 plce sin the county i fancy a few edwardstone is a horse that caught my attention last year and he came 6th in the supreme,but i felt he was better than that.his 3rd in the batfair was a top run and given he carried more weight he was the moral winner.thyme hill will like this drying ground as well and i can believe he faded lto like he did.he hadnt run for a whiel so may strip fitter today.buildmeupbuttercup i think as been campaigned for this again.she was cruising in this last year in a top class renewal and these horses are 20-1+ and 8 places on offer
alaphilippe slow time in comparison to third wind at haydock appeared slow being 12 secs slower.hoever form 1st hurdle to the last ,it was the same ,so thats 2m3f.at the last he had the race won anyay so wasnt exerted whilst third wind and lisnagar oscar battled it out to go 2.2 secs in front.theres such a long run to the 1st hurdle the tiem was effected there by a slow pace going to the first.h4 caught my eye as he had beat tile tapper prviously .the ground may of got too fast for him,but we dont know that et so at 16-1 hes worth a ew go i feel
the gold cup is a open race i feel.i expect 2019 style paec which would mean al boum photo as a great chance of a 3rd gold cup.however a fast pace if set by native river if he outbattles frodon for the lead should ensure santini will be more suited.hes been written off but the ground was too heavy for him lto and the pace was too slow in the king george. a fats pace on better ground will bring oot the bts of him i feel.i can thave him though but expect a better run.minella indo wa smy antepost choice from my may blog.things went well to begin with ,but its all fell apart with the horse appearing to lose confidence in his jumping since that fall.apt as been rested since xmas and we saw melon pu yesterday as he had a hard race in that and ran at drf.cps as well ran fast at drf and flopped in the champion chase.i didnt think i would say this but i have warmed to champ now.i changed y gut feeling in the week saying bravemansgame as a lot of spped and the supeme may suit him better than the ballymore.on the day i changed my opionion and it didnt work.ive already changed my opionion of adagio in the triumoh and i doing it again with champ.alloha yesterday finally confired m view of a strong rsa from last year with his fats time in the ryanair.minella indo was running fast in his first 2 chase runs as well.he impressed me at newbury over 2m and yu have to think henderosn maybe as got his prep right by going shorter to get rid of the first time out keenness.his jumping is a conern but he jumped well at nebury.given the prices of the main contenders and i canr see a shock,i feel ou just pick a horse to win at best odds in this siituation like i did last year with lostintranslation i suppsoe you could use corals for faller insurance or hills for moenyback offers if 2nd,but i will edge it with champ but do 6 reverse foracast with alp and apt
elimay i cant see past in the mares specially since alloha wisn yesterday she is fav but deserves to be.
18 march 21 blog
fusil raffles will love this ground and hes 16-1 so a nice ew bet.he was tired lto ,but as had a long rest now.skybet offer money back if 2nd 3rd or 4th
alloha was my antepost bet for this and he finally came good lto.its quite a open race and he can be a dodgy jumper,so coral non finisher insurance i will be going here.
sully doc AA as been layed out for this if feel.hes ran in some fast races and hsi best on this ground.12-1 ew with extra places for me
sire de berlais was my antepost choice.i will stick with him but the storyteller is like also but will stick ith m original choice.as a little ew bet lil rockerfeller at 80-1 and 5 places makes appeal to suprise again.
17 march 21 blog
The ground is faster than I thought and it was changed to gdsf ,soft in places later on,but it seemed from race 1 and definitely race 2 it was closer to gdsf.
Bravemsmansgame i thought should've gone supreme,but on this quicker ground,I quite like his chances now.he showed a lot of speed in the challow at the end of the race,but i can't see this being a furious race and he as shown he can handle decent ground as well.
I can't really see last monkfish and cps ,but sceau royal ew or betting w/o as a good record when good is in the description and seems to run a honest race.7 to 1 without cps may be the best option or 16 to 1 ew.
Embittered i like in the grand annual .soft ground in this race ma of been better as there seemed more value with the bigger priced types on soft embittered ran well in the county last year and as come up against the best in graded novices chases this season.i feel he is best fresh so a nice break since drf hes had.
15 march 21 blog
even i was surprised by the small fields.this is now becoming a meeting for the elite festival trainers and owners.ive never seen so many novices in the handicaps as well,thus making the likes of the arkle and brown advisory novice chase small fields and also i dont think trainers are keen to run there exposed handicappers against potentially graded class novices in handicaps.the likes of nicholls and skelton have stated all season about other targtes like aintree or keeping the for the future.it may be covid related as well,but i think other trainers are realising that the likes of mullins will likely miss aintree as many have ran at drf as well.drf to cheltenham to punchestown is roughy 6 weeks gap.aintree is 3 weeks either side of cheltenham and punchestown and comes a buit too soon.this will be aintress gain i feel.
supreme - metier i always take on short price favs,but this year i will change my strategy and back the in accas i think.however i cant take to appreciate it at evens fav.he is a good horse ,but i feel last years bumper was not that great and he didnt win it.it may be that cheltenahm doesnt suit him.if he wins then i wont be surprised but i feel hes worth taking on.metier is my choice now the rain as come.gdsf was risky but soft,gdsf in places is ok and even if it changes to gdsf,soft in places,this is my choice.hes ran fast times this season and ive noted many times on this blg about uk novice hurdlers being a strong bunch.using skybets offer as well,nothing to lose on this race.on good ground i was leaning to soaring glory but that unexpected rain as ruled that out.
arkle just watching now.i expected a 5 runner field tbh so 6 runners is no surprise.i feel allmankind may not be bets at cheltenham given his last 2 runs theres so shishkin is the obvious choice but way too short.
utliama - happygolucky /cepage ewi wanted him to go for the brown advisory chase and have a good ew go on him.i feel he is the uk's best 3m novice chaser but kim bailey wants to take advantage of his lowley hcap mark.at 3-1 its not really a good price but ive liked him all season.with 7 places ew i suppose i need to find a ew alternative but not many make much appeal at those 16-1 plus odds cepage ew goes for this again and i wanted him to go for the ryanair.at 25-1,he may sneak a place.he sweated badly lto so i dont want to see that again before the off.
champion hurdle - abacadabras ew im sticking with my antepost choice.at soft/gdsf i feel he will be ok on it.5 places ew as well with hills at 15-2.if we had unexpected rain,then i would ahve to change ,but i dont think we will.im keen to take honeysuckle on on gdsf ground at 2m
mares hurdle - concertista i thought at one point would become mullins main champion hurdle hop given what was going on with his 3 others for that.5-4 is no price but he will be pat of my lucky 15 im still finalising
fred winter - youmdor ew i will take a chance on.he ran fast earlier in the season and he would of won without that fall at the last.mullins ran him too quick at drf after.22-1 and 6 places on offer here
nh chase -escaria ten/the mighty don ew will take galvin on now the ground as gone soft.i like escaria ten at 9-2 as he makes more appeal to me thn next destination does whos fav.i will have asneaky ew bet on the mighty don though and if happygolucky wins or runs close,i will fancy him either more.i have a feeling the groudn will be gdsf,soft in places on th day and i will risk it as he wont want it proper soft 40-1 and 4 places available.hey could fo gone kim muir which would make more sense being a hcap and 2 extar days of drying the ground out,but i feel this extra trip will suit him better and he likes cheltenham.
7 march 21 blog
my drogo is awesome
i havent got any reliable standards for kelso as bar this morebattle meeting,they don't really ofer much top class racing.luckily there were 4 decent hurdle races and i can use things like average secinds per fulrong as well.tbf to the racing post standrds ,the difference between 2m and 2m2f seems about right.i've mentioned my drogo all season on this blog and i didn't realise he was rated 140 by the bha.this surely must of had a effect on the betting as he wasn't best on ratings and with a 5lb penalty.he was 6-4 the day before and 2-1 on the day.i thought he should be odds on so was suprised he was 2-1 and paddy power offered money back if 2nd 3rd or 4th in this race so i duely took it up from them.i was concerned about the sharp track ,but he absolutley destroyed this average lot.hen you do the lengths of the 2nd and 3rd and if you take there ratings as gospel,were looking at high end 150s/low 160 rating.to back this up i looked at the sections.he covered the same 2m as the shunter did 2.4 secs quicker ,so 12l and carried 10lb more and hes 135 plus had to run 2f more and jump 2 extar hurles whcih is another 1.4 secs or 7l .imo hes the bets 2m novice hurdler in the uk and its a shame he didn't go for the supreme but metier is a good one as well.i do think the ul as good 2m novice hurdlers,but on the flip side the 3m novice chasers are poor.there talking gold cup in the future so that will be 2023 and you can see by his size hes a chaser.he will surely be going 2m4f+ from now on and aintree is next.next year i suspect he will eb kept at 2m4f in his novice chase season but may end up at 3m at the end of it.given how skelton as missed this years festival,hes not garrantued to be there next season in novice chases.
hitman keeps himself fresh
by winning the newbury novice hase easy and only a little scare 4 out,he was a furlong slower than the greatwod hcap chase winner,so this as took nothing out of him at all i suspect.its a shame he isnt going for the marsh chase,but its a common thing form nicholls and skelton this season to avoid the festival and it sort of backs up the patterns and comments by them during the season.the festival is all about the big 3 ,henderson,mullins and what was elliott.i suspect henry de bromhead will take over as number 2 trainer in ireland now.the big owners have the power to target the festival and not over race there horses during the season.this is why henderson is behind on prizemoney,the fear of giving his horses hard races on testing ground and thwarting there festival runs is too much for him ,but nicholls and skelton mop up all the good prizes on the way.hitman would fo suely won the scilly isle if he didnt fall and he is one to look forward to next year.i do feel we have good 2m to 2m4f novice chasers were we have allmankind,shishkin,hitman and protektorat.at 3m imo happygolucky is the best of a average lot really and getaway trump gave him a nice fomboost by winning at doncaster .
keep a eye out for northofthewall
umbrigado won the grade 3 hcp chase at newbury making it 3 wins on the trot.he did lose on his chase debut to northofthewall by 10l though.you need to be carefull with fto runs but he had a hurdle run prior so must of been pretty fit on his chase debut and he made no mistake umbrigado didn't ,but northofthewall battered him by 10l eased down.this is another dan skelton novice chaser that looks good.he fell at aintree when 2l in fornt 2 out and that was a deent hcap chase run in a good time that day.hes rated 140,so umbrigado is around 140ish .he has no festival entries as off 140 the 2m4f hcap chase would be the race.he hasnt been seen since december the 8th so aint sure if something as happened to him,but i will be watching out for him.
27 feb 21 blog
dan skelton strong with his novices
i read or heard on a podcast that henderson hasnt anything good enough for the supreme this year ,he has 2 entries at present but doesn't look like he will run them.this season i've awared big ratings to many of skelton novices.he though doesn't seem keen on racing my drogo for example in the supreme and has third time lucki and cadzand in it instead who took beatings recently.then i looked at the weekend entries starting on friday, i saw he had 2 novice hurdlers out who i hadn't heard of before in cabots cliff at warwick and calico and he nearly won both.cabots cliffs easiy beat heross du seuil.when i looked back at my notes ,i didnt give him a positive write up for his kempton win.his time was 2 points slower than cadzand ,but he had flopped in the betfair hurdle and i don't think he ran below form as well despite being favourite.he was a class 3 winner who just wasnt good enough for a grade 3 race,simple as that.heross du seuil had a adonis entry but henderosn opted for thsi what seemed easier ,but it wasn't as skeltons horse sa him off well enough.i will say we have ahigh 130s perfomance here by cabots clifs.hds i think as ran below form as i had him mid 130s for kempton but he took a 17l beating here .its too early to say why .cabots cliffs form boosted duffle coat who looks set to be elliotts 3rd best in the triumph.i would base his wetherby run were he got to 8l of duffle coat rather than 15l and 5lb less weiht at cheltenham as a betetr run obviously ,but this might tell us cheltenham isn't his track.warwick is a sharp track and wetherby is more galloping but still a fast track.he has a fred winter entry but im not that keen really jay bee why won the other novice race at 2-7 fav.he was 0,48 sec slower on average per furlong than cabots cliffs .he had to run 3f extra and jump 2 more hurdles but its a big differnce,around 0.2 i think is about right for the extar 3f difference in trip,niot near 0.5.he had a slower pace and was nearly 5 ses behind until 2 out were he closed in well and got it down to 2.2 secs in he end,but loking at the final sectiosn,i reckon cabot cliffs could of matched his 13.3 final section were he took 14.1 but was well clear from 2 out.jay bee why hasn't really boosted the warwick grade 2 novice hurdle form by winning this has he had no decent rivals.
mares listed chases not worth the status
i gt the incentive to try to keep mares in training by making mares only races for them and expanding mares only races at the festival,its a bit much for me to have 3 mares only events at the festival but so be it.they get a generous 7lb allowance agaisnt the males as well whih i feel is too much.these listed mares hurles and chases seem to pop up regualry now and we saw momella win another one.she took a good beating by a genuien grade 1 mare in roksana a few years back.she is rated 139 and beat a 123 horse 1l in 2nd.there was a same trip hcap chase on the card and i did the sectiosn to give her a chance to prove me wrong this wasn't a poor listed race.they ran a betetr pace than earth moors hcap race but not too fast,2.9 secs at the fastest point 4 out.now bothe her and earth moor are rated 139 but she was carrying 10lb less.she would get 7lbs anyway form him if they met in a non handicap.at the last fence,there was now nothing in it betwen the 2 races,but earth moor ran the final last fence to the line 0.8 ses faster,or 3l say despite a bigger weight.it's now obvious why she only just beat a 123 horse in 2nd.i think maybe the trip was too log but her 16lb advantage over her rival in 2nd was enough to see her home.she took a 32l beating lto by annie mc and she finsihed just behind a 121 horse as well in that race,so why she is on 139 i'll never know.she did have good novice hurdle form under dan skelton,but that was ages ago ,as moved trainer sine and had 2 wind ops.she was 142 as a novice and the handciapper needs to give her a realistic mark now.he di go 127 but hes crept her upto 139 as a result of bating a 132 horse in a novice chase by 12l whist 127 herself.there was a 122 horse just behind the 132 horse that day.as long as we have these weak listed mares races,i suppose trainers are going to take advanatage and she hasn't even got a mares chase at the festival entry.
tritonic looked good but not great on the clock
i was tempted to back casa loupi as i thought the easier track may play into his advantage more than the tritonic based on lto at ascot.however gary moores words of needing a drop of rain ran alarm bells so i just watched it in the end.good job really as casa loupi was totally outpaced on this good ground from the last.i've been wary of horse in the oast who have won this by qucikening or sprinting away at the ast hurdle,i have a theory they have too much speed for the triumph and won't get up the hill,especailly ex flat horses.redicean also trained by alan king was similar and took a good beating in the triumph.with redicean though,he had ben kept at kempton twice before and kings other winner mister blueyes as well ran at kempton and other sharp tracks.tritonic ran at stiff ascot and gary moore did state he prefers a stiff trst than this,so to do this shows how good he is.the time was 0.5 seconds slower than the dovecote,but it was 1.5 secs slower form 1st hurdle to the line.he didnt though lead till approaching the last an ran 0.5 secs quicker than the dovecote winner.the pace in this was good but it slowed down halfway as the dovecote and the hcap hurdle seem to get faster at that point in the sectionals.i as hoping for a better time performance as this as left me scracting my head.he may of won and looked impressive despite the track not really suiting.as he's ran at ascot already,i don't think he's just one of those spedy ex flat races with a good turn of foot but can't get up hills.i still think elliot as too much firepower for the triumph ,but this one hads a bit of class to the race from the uk side of things as adagio is not that good i reckon.
poor dovecote hurdle
despite the time being better then the adonis,in relation to the 2m5f hcap hurdle,its only average really.dan skeltons calico looked set to win and ent 1.07 in running ,but with his head high and managing to get in the lead by a neck,he threw it away and lost a show if that was a good enough reason to lose the race.we had a 130 horse in 8.5l 3rd and 11l 4th.i take the offical ratings for lightly raced types with a pinch of salt but given the time in relation to the 130 winner of the handicap over 5f longer,its not that good.cape gentleman doesn't even have a a supreme entry and the ballymore is more likely.were talking low 140s here
tamaroc du mathan may not stay
the 3 chases at kempton were strange as we saw the 2 handciaps run at a furious pace and the pendil novice chase at a modest paec at best.now this means the final times for the novices is poor ,but i know the reason was pace mainly.i like to preview races,especially with lightly raced types i don't know so well yet.this was a match between a ga law who took a 10.5l beating by allmankind and tdm who took a 13l beating by shishkin.given ga law had won over 2m4f i thought he would be suited to the trip more despite a 3lb penalty.however,the sharp track,good ground and slow pace meant it wasn't a good test.ga laws jumping as well wasn't good in the 2nd half of the race.i knew coole cody wouldn't win as that paddy power chase he won his poor form and it was on the clock as well.at the end,hsi final 3 sections were very speedy and he will miss the grand annual and go for a 2m4f aintree or ayr novice graded chase.seems to be the theme with nicholls and along with dan skelton,they don't seem keen on the festival with many of there better horses as i've mentioned this before on this blog.i will though be keen to see how he gets on in a fast run 2m4f chase.ga law needs a better test i feel but his jumping let him down.maybe with the pace quickening too much caught him out and a more true run race will help him more.
clondaw castle wins again on good ground
i do speed points and sectionals to highlight unexposed horses really.they also help me with how races pan out .with exposed types,they are useful still like for example a good horse might still be winning but not running as fast and th betting public still think he's as good as ever.when i analysed the close brothers hcap chase at kempton,i latched on to erick du rouge at 25-1.this is because he had won 3 times at the track but he also came 4th in the pendil novice chase the year before.that pendil won who dares wins was the fastest race of the day last year.for various reasons,the form didn't appear that good.erick du rouge wa son bottom weight nearly and 134,a mark hes won of before.he's just ahd issue and needed a wind op.i'm wary of horses on heavy ground who have had wind ops,so with the ground now good and blinkers on as well,i thought he was a good ew bet at those odds.he tok the lead after leading the peleton as 3 breakaway horses set a furious pace.i thought my luck was in once double shuffle looked beat as he was a horse i was tempted with.if it wasn't for speed points,there's no way i would even of considered be erick du rouge.clndaw castle won it under a big weight.over fenes,the last 4 times he's ran on good or even gdfm he's won with just one loss in a grade one over 2m.he's won one on gdsf but lost many more.the trip was unknown but he got it well,although he may of tired near the line as the placed horses seemed to close on him.the 2m4.5f hcap chase won by my way also had a strong pace.when i compare the time difference and there ratings,they are roughly in sync with each other as i though initially clondaw castle had ran way better than he had before and we had a new 3 mile star and i was thinking king george next year at massive odds.he's ran to his consistant self.
jason the militant will need it heavy
he's a horse i couldn't get a handle on .he ran a close 3rd to abacadabras/saint roi at punchestown and those 2 at the tome were my champion hurdle choices.sine then,despite it being heavy ground,elliott a stated he needs better ground and so it proved lto with a 10l beating by honeysuckle i know feel abacadabras wasn't at his best but still won as hes a top class horse.with saint roi running poor twice since and now not going to the festival,it makes sense what happened that day.so jason the militant got close because the higher class winner wasn't at his best on the heavy going and he loves it.when i saw his time at fairyhouse and the beating he gave petite mouchour whilst giving him 9lb ,i thought we had a genuine champion hurdle contender.however the other 2m hurdle won by teahupoo was a slow run race and elliot doesn't rate him that highly as he will miss the triumph and comeback here at easter.petite mouchour dislikes testing unlike the winner.if it wa heavy at cheltenham,he would be a good ew bet for the champion hurdle,but even soft may not be enough for him to get placed.honeysuckle as well would be my idea of the winner on heavy going.
23rd Feb 21 blog
Wilde about Oscar regains winning ways
The horse ran fast in his aintree win in November but something went wrong in the challow hurdle with a mistake and the jockey looking down before pulling him up.he was able to beat the glancing queen despite wandering around and stumbling himself from 2 out.the sections show a slow pace but he didn't finish very fast due to his awkwardness.i think 2m and heavy ground wasn't to his likening at all as 2m4f on gdsf was the conditions at aintree but he is a classy animal.i didn't realise he was taken out of the ballymore hurdle and Dan Skelton with his comments about the festival becoming a monster seems to be like Nicholls and think there are better alternatives to the festival.hes got quite a few good novice chasers and hurdlers,but he's taken a few out of the festival at the last dec stage.the glancing queen went of fav due to easy win lto but she took a 10l beating in the challow hurdle.i don't really rate the champion bumper for that highly and she was 8th.the Skelton novices I rate highly are allmankind, protektorat, Wilde about Oscar and my drogo.imo they are the best or close to the best the UK have.
Allmankind runs very fast but …….
The arkle may come to soon.his style means he must surely take loads out of him and the sections showed he got faster from 3 out even though he had set a fast pace compared to the 2m4f hcap chase.that blunder 2 out is a concern and 2 other mistakes he made as well.i also think Cheltenham doesn't suit him.his last 2 visits there as saw him run below form and his style of running means on a track like that Cheltenham,he gets tired at the finish.i know he won well at testing sandown but I feel Cheltenham is too close even if I'm wrong about the track suitability.this race as well was a classic example of the official ratings been all wrong .allmamkind was on 154 with 3lb extra , sky pirate 152 and cheedleton 149,so it should of been a close contest,but it wasn't.this is because depending on what time you use, official or 1st fence to line , allmankind ran just as fast as politologue at sandown and he's 165ish.cheddleton was 135 for a while but because he beat a higher rated horse in a novice chase he went to 149.he took a 32l beating plus had 3lb less so that 135 rating looks about right and 165ish for allmankind seems right with sky pirate on 152 about right.
Mollys ollys wishes needs to do more
Impressive as she was ,the time and sections don't back her up and its more likely others ran below form.on a direct time comparison to the other 2m5f hurdle,she was way ahead ,but there was a 2m class 4 and a 3m2f class 4 hurdle as well and when you do the average seconds per furlong each race took the 110 rated winner of the 2m hurdle is too close to her.when I did her speed points at kempton as well,they were ok for the class but nothing indicated graded level.
Chantry house very speedy
The pace wasn't as good as the 2m hcap chase but when he took the lead he must of been 10 secs behind but closed it too 1.6 from 3 out.he was always comfortable as well.his supreme 3rd was a good run and lto he was poor of a fast pace over 2m4.5f at Cheltenham and that may of stretched him too far.he has won over 2m3f but he beat one horse home that is day despite slow jumps by him.i ain't sure how far he can go,I get the feeling he he'll be like mister fisher
Protektoret still one of the best novices
I had a bad feeling about his Kelso run given the trip track and going ,but thought his class could see him win,but he was beat before stamina became a issue and he jumped to his right,it was his left lto and also left at Carlisle ,but his fast win came at Cheltenham were he jumped straight.i wasn't surprised he got beat at wincanton but he ran well in defeat ,but this was a poor show indeed.he looks best on stuff tracks and he was taken out the marsh chase lady week anyway which isn't unusual really as he's trained by Dan Skelton who doesn't make the festival the ultimate target. Whether he runs again this season I don't know but the paddy power gold cup off 152 or maybe even less now after that poor run would be appealing as he loves Cheltenham.
Ascot chase below standard again
Dashel drasher is decent enough and better than last year's winner ,but the time wasn't grade 1 or even 2 despite a good pace being set. He was the fastest of the 3 chases but only by 2 points over the novices and 5 over captain chaos the gap really should be much bigger than that ,fir example first flow was 9 points clear when he won the Clarence House compared to the handicap , incidentally won by dashel drasher and I feel first flow is a genuine grade 1 horse.i feel dashel drasher as improved but he was wandering around at the end and needed the line quick,tbf he is a fighter but I can't see him winning the Ryanair or other 2m4/5f grade one's this season unless improvement again ,but I think he's hit his true ability now.
I also noticed he joins riders on the storm and cyrname as they have taken the same route more it less ,that's the graduation chase over CD in December and/or the hcap chase also over CD in January.its often underestimated how important course form is and at the top level,it can be the deciding factor more.if you look at frodon,Aso and saint calvados winners or close 2nds in the Ryanair chase at the festival, they had good course form,in particularly 2m4/5f grade 3 hcap chase form at Cheltenham, either winning one or running well under big weights,so this pattern I've noticed at Ascot makes sense.on top of that each season certain areas are weaker than others and so a handicapper can win a big race by exploiting this.with cyrname running poor due to a respiratory issue,it didn't take much winning.first flow was able to take advantage of basically grade 2 2m chasers in the Clarence House.saint calvados would of surely won this if he lined up and replicated his Ryanair form but then again,does Ascot suit him?
Remastered nothing special
To continue the average 3m novice chasers theme the UK as got remastered time was better than captain chaos but it doesn't mean much really.its about a low 150s performance at best.the line up was poor beforehand I thought so a horse who hasn't ran in a wfa graded race yet won it came as no surprise really.the likes of remastered,next destination, hurricane Harvey and the big breakaway who have won 3m grade 2s or came 2nd in a 3m grade 1 are some way behind monkfish and latest exhibition and probably a few more Irish staying novice chasers.it's a bit depressing really when you see va average bunch of novice chasers as these are our future gold cup types.
Third wind shows pertemps better than the stayers
Using race times to determine a performance can be tricky.one area you hear or read often is so and so clocked faster time than the other race over the same trip,just like energumenes apparently quicker time than cps at drf meeting recently.that was down too the clockwatcher starting to early in the cps race.you have to consider pace as well and be confident the standards are as correct as they can be.the racing post yet again moved the 3m hurdle standards at haydock,it's anywhere between 5m41 to 5m58 according to the racing post,he seems to change it at every meeting.luckily there were 3 3m hurdles to compare but also it proved to me the stayers hurdle was weak compared to the pertemps at the festival.they had similar paces set by their respective front runners in each race yet the pertemps was quicker by by 2.98 officially or 15 lengths.thirf wind was beaten 9 lengths ,do had 6l over lisnsgsr Oscar however he carried 9lb less do in theory lo was 3l superior but he had to give 6lb at haydock,do third wind came out on top.the stayers as been a bit weak for a while but this season it's better and I can't imagine last year's stayers hurdle principles will be involved this year sire de berlais,the storyteller,fury road,thyme hill and paisley park are better than what we saw at haydock.
The times of the 3 races saw this official times of
third wind 6m19.29.
Bushy park 6m25.82. -6.53
Alaphillipi 6m31.38. -12.09
1st hurdle to line saw this
Third wind 5m17.0
Bushy park 5m21.2. -4.2
Alaphillipi 5m19.3. -2.3
Now it's too much of a long run at haydock 3m hurdles to the first flight to time from there, it's about 4f before they jump the first flight.ejdybi from Nd strange is the big time difference between third wind and alaphillipi officially compared to 1st hurdle to line.looking at the sections as well ,for the last 2m4f of the race ,they had roughly the same pace as third wind race was no more than 4l in front of the novices to the 7th hurdle, then the novices got quicker to go 4l in front at hurdle 9.they were still 1l in front at the last but in the battle between lo and third wind they got to 9l quicker,but alaphillipi was well clear in his race and was eased last 100yds or so.i like the look of alaphillipi and not quite sure what level he is but I'd say he's a lot better than the cob who recently won the river Don grade 2 novice hurdle.
Goshen looked good
Firstly I have to say song for someone didn't run to form as neither did Navajo pass who on the triumph form should of been 20l or so closer.i don't rate him anyway but the trainer as did well winning 2 races with him this season and being brave in trying a grade 2 that ended up with a small field and his 2 main rivals not producing there best on the day.i think this was one too many races for him so he ran flat.song for someone needs a more testing track them this as well,but he should of been closer but heavy ground as well went against him.even though Goshen didn't lead,the pace was good .the novice hurdle won by longshanks was the faster of the 2 novice hurdles but pozo Emery was a horse I was impressed with his final sectionals at Chepstow and I was surprised he was beat but he gave the winner 6lb for a 2l beating and it was a better contest than the other novice hurdle do I think he may of ran to form given the better time.the form of his Chepstow race as worked out quite well and I guess he's a mid 130s horse do reckon Goshen ran to low 160s here which puts him in the champion hurdle mix. He was 5.4 secs quicker in the end of the longshanks novice hurdle which I feel is a decent contest. If he had won the triumph by 10l he was in front before unseating ,it would if meant he still had at least 5l to find on Saint roi but we just don't know how much he could of won by,like he did here as he won easy with the jockey looking round as well from 2 out.i still feel abacadabras maybe ahead on his best form,but that if he produces it.
Sceau royal wins again with good in the going
Since the 17/18 season sceau royal as come first or second every time he has ran on ground with good in the description and he won the game spirit on gdsf.hex nothing special and his time was slightly below his best from a season or 2 ago so I don't think he will be winning a champion chase but he's a consistent type given his ground.it also helped he had 3lb from champ and his final jump cost him momentum or it may of been different.before the race I had him 1 point better than greaneteen based on formlines which is 2l over 2m.he beat him by 12l but did get 6lb of him.fanion d'estreval was disappointing as he was my top rated ,which means he should if won by 2l nit lose by 15.5l.i think the drying ground explains his form and it's a pity he didn't try the Ascot chase instead. I can't help but think he would have won the Peterborough chase if he didn't fall.greaneteen simply isn't good enough as I suspected ,he seems to run a honest race but he's not champion chase class on what he's done so far.in a way I'm glad champ ran that well.his RSA win was 2 points faster than politologue , albeit he is grade 2 really and won a weakened renewal.the stats Will be out to say champ is a gold cup negative but I've always believed in the RSA firm being top class.in opted for minella indo in the gold cup antepost but his jumping is a major concern. Ironically it was champs jumping that made me dismiss him for the gold cup and I had a ew antepost bet on him for the stayers hurdle instead.this was a pleasing seasonal reappearance regardless of what he does in the gold cup and there's more race's to be won at top level with him if it doesn't work out in the gold cup.
Don't dismiss track suitability
As I've noted above,at the top level, little things like track suitability are more important and the denman chase confirmed that.secret investor I dismissed as i thought cdo and lostintranslation were better ,but they had fun poor previously.lit seemed to be going ok but quickly weakened by the last.cdo lost by a neck giving 6lb.secret investor seems to like Newbury and Ayr, left-handed flat galloping tracks.i can also throw in small fields as well and/or needs decent ground.he had it all and duly won.he ran poor in the Hennessy which makes me to think the big field contributed to that. Right handed tracks may not be an issue but kempton may be.he was allowed to set his own pace but he slowed but down before the home straight to get a breather in and kick on again and he led on.thay 6lb helped as well so from now on its grade 2s under a penalty or graded 1s whic I think he will struggle given is sectionals he did later on, not that impressive really
cepage looks interesting for Ryanair
He is my idea of a ew Ryanair type.as mentioned above he has good course form over the trip in top handicaps.he sweated badly in the denman chase,he normally does sweat but not that bad plus the gdsf ground was too fast for him.if the festival is soft or heavy ,I can see him going well.
Top class Betfair hurdle
It was criminal that soaring glory and fifty ball had low weights to run 1-2 in the Betfair hurdle given there form with the 2 best 2m novice hurdlers imo in my drogo and straw fan jack.the time difference between the other 2 hurdle races was a big margin.i am wary of horses who run fast of low weights but they are novices instead of exposed types.sometimes a slow time is a positive like soaring glorys Chepstow win in october.of the 5 hurdle races that day,he was by far the slowest but it was down to pace.in this situation,speed points are useless to judge their ability on but sectionals are better and also it's hard to win a race by a big margin of s slow pace and he and bravemanssgame drew clear of the field in their battle and he as won the challow hurdle since.edwardstone in third comes out best fur me and buzz under big weights. Edwardstone is a horse I can't remember why I fancied his chances in last year's supreme ,but he ran 6th and I don't think he ran to his best.i suspect soft and/or Cheltenham was the issue.he won at musselburgh on heavy,but off 141,I reckon he's 150ish so on 146 he looks well handicapped .the county hurdle would be a race ideally to go for,but Cheltenham may not suit,so aintree may be more ideal.gdsf at Cheltenham may be ok,it could just be it was too soft in the supreme last year and be worth a risk if he goes for the county hurdle.thyme white came into going well but he didn't run on for some reason.he travelled strongly in the Fred winter but faded due to soft ground,he should of really done better unless he needs it genuine good. He's worth another chance as he ran fast at Chepstow.
12 feb 21 drf review
well ,in a effort to try to make betting more attractive at drf,i tried to do forecasts but annoyingly got two 1-3s .it was the mullins domination and he must be scaring a few trainers now at cheltenham.before thsi meetig,many uk trainers seemed to be mentioning aintree a lot and this may make sense.running at drf and then cheltenham,means aintree will probably have to be bypassed and then punchestown instead.this may mean aintree becomes a meeting that the best from ireland will bypass as it will be hard to take in drf,cheltenham,aintree and punchestown.will monkfish for example run at aintree if he wins the rsa?i personally was disapointed that no uk trainer setn anythingb over,maybe tough with covid and brexit but they hardly did in the past.the few that did though did well and that incs the xmas leopardstown meeting as well.elliott also seems not to go full in at it,maybe hes wary of peaking them too soon which is a danger as the likes of notebook proved last year ,something de bromhead mentioned as a reason why he didn't run to form.envoi allen would of been a fascinating clash with monkfish ,but he ran 2 weeks earlier.
ok the ratings i've done which were mainly down to sectionals as the standard times are wrong the rp uses.they expect the longer races to run at quucker pace over a longer trip to achieve the same rating.there's also rail movement which as more of a effect the longer the trip is also.sectionals at least do help.also we have the times themsleves and they can be wrong as that was the case with chacun pour soi who was 1.3 secs slower but as 0.3 faster from 1st to the line.it as been reviewed by attheraces and it shows how the clock started to early in the cps race.cps won as expcted,another top class time as well.notebook who i forecasted to coem 2nd was 3rd,beaten 15l this time and fdo in 2nd is a horse that he as beat when on song and the formline with ptko as well suggests the 2l margin or so superiot as like when they ran 1-2 last year.i suspect notebook is a horse best fresh.this is what i thought when he flopped in the arkle and he won so well fto this season.i believe he ran to his best lto over xmas as well.i think maybe if he missed this and gone straight to cheltenham,he may of run better ,but probably still come 2nd to cps anway.i wonder if de bromhead may miss cheltenham with him and go to punchestown and he might catch a over the top cps there.surely as well fdo must be tried in the ryanair as hes won over 2m4f,in fact ,that was his last win when he tried that trip and i think its obvious he's got at least 3 irish horses when on form that can beat him at 2m and he doesn't really stay 3m.energumene in beating franco de port by 10l feels right also as i had franco de port as a round a mid 150s horse after lto and thsi puts him mid 160s at least and sets up a fascinating clash with shishkin and i think definelty now there won't be many runners in the arkle this year.felix desjy ran poor again,jumping left and i wonder if he just doesn't like leopardstown for whatever reason.he may be best missing cheltenham and going to aintree instead.
if there was one favorite that i was certain would be beat ,then honeysuckle it was ,but she made a fool of me.this is becuase i don't consider her outstanding ,but she is consistent.the times and comparision to the 2m hcap hurdle indicates a low 160ish rating as what as been given.she just seems to run her race each time.i also faled to take into account from patterns ,i do speed points to look for the up and coming starts more,once established at the top level,there isn't much between the top horses and it often comes down to the little differences like trip,going ,course,preparation etc.elliott did warn that the ground may be too testing for abacadabras and its something to consider for the future.whats confusing is he as won a grade 1 on heavy,but i was always wary of apsire tower being that close that day.i think soft is ok but heavy is a issue.he ran well considering how poor he ran lto and the heavy in the going despcription /a tongue tie also suggest breathing issues and such horses can find heavy going too much.sharjah as well needs better ground,he an handle soft but not heavy but i would like to see him on yielding to be at his best.3 of this 4 grade 1 wins have come on good or yielding.i will be taking on honeysuckle again in the champin hurdle unless it is heavy ground.i feel many of her rivals if they get gdsf ground will show there top form.saint roi ran poor regardless,i feel something (probably breathing) is a miss with him.he and abacadabras were my antepost champion hurdle choice and it all started so well with the pair,but now its falling apart for the in the big race itself,but at least theres ew value now on offer
galiard de mensil won well but i still feel the albert bartlett is a open race.i wasn't impressed with his final sections .the 2m6f standard is wrong and way too harsh ,but if you do the average seconds per furlong compared to honeysuckle,its 0.5 ses per furlong (spf) difference.he had to go 6f extra and 3 more hurldles to jump i know,but at best it should of been no more than 0.4 sec ,but 0.3 secs more probably seems about right,so 0.5 is a little too slow for me.i wouldn't be scared on looking for a big priced type for a ew bet on the albert bartlett this year.
on the sunday,appreciate it won with ballyadam in 2nd and getting closer.i now feel the reason he got closer was due to the slower the pace as he won in a slow run grade 1 the time before he was found out in a true run grade 1 after won by appreciate it .quilixios did run faster,but this was down to pace appreciate ws 4.6 down 3 out but got it to 1.8 down at the end compared to quilixios.i don't think appracite it is a good betting choice for the supreme.i don't think the irish novice hurdlers are as a strong as there novice chasers in comparision to the uk novices.at 3m novice chases,the uk are poor but we have a few top ones at 2m and good ones 2m4f.i have noticed a few novice hurdles in the uk this season put in some good ratings so i don't think the irish will have it all there own way in the supreme,ballymore and albert bartlett.i like stats but also i like to now the reason why it happens.lets not forget appreciate it was probably going for the ballmore until ferny hollow got injured.champin bumper horses usually do better over further and/or fences.i also feel he may of lost the champion bumper as cheltenham didnt suit him.he as turned out to be far the best from that, but i don't think it was a strong renewal with certain formlines suggesting it.hes a big chasing type as well and i feel if the going was soemthing like gdsf,he may not have the speed.just another note from that race and regarding times.master mcshee was 1 sec slower than appreciate it lto in his hcap win verses his grade 1 win.if you take inot account as well the 2 extar hurdles he jumped,he actually ends up faster.however from the 1st to the line hes 5 secs slower.once again,there is issues with the clck watcher and when they decide the race starts.5 secs is 20l and he was beaten just over 16l in this race!
there's no question about it,monkfish for me was the best performance of the weekend .i would love him to go to the marsh as well as i think he would beat envoi allen at 2m4f but he will go rsa.after 6 fences,he was starting to go faster than the 2m5f hcap chase and it was 5.1 secs quicker at the end.he increased hsi margin over latest exhibition from 3 to 11l,although i feel maybe he didn't appreciate the drop in trip.he sets such a high standard in the novice chase division beyond the 2 milers.andy dufrense i do rate,but thats over 2m.i thought there was a few strange decision at drf liem embittered going for the arkle instead of the hap chase and andy dufrense going for this instead of the arkle.maybe not this season,but next season im expecting big things from him.
the irish gold cup these days as little effect on the cheltenham gold cup.sizing john did the double,but he was trying 3m for the first time in the irish gold cup.for established 3 milers like kemboy this is a race for him to shine in.apt and abp haven't bothered with it.that said ,i would oif not judged minella indo as a unlikely gold cup winner if he had won this ,as he needed to run in it and win as he fell lto.he was my antepost gold cup selection and i will admit its unlikely he will win now.his jumping as gone to pot and he seems to of lost confidence.he was too cautious at the last few fences and came last in the end.i wonder if de bromhead feels he needs to miss cheltenham and try again next year now.the woner though as lost monalee to injury so he will probably ant ot go to the gold cup still.he's got a good festival record and just mayeb trying a lesser grade now somewhere may help him in the long run.kemboy loves it round here and got his rewards again.speed points as i've mentioned at this level have less impact as its more to do about finding patterns in ahorse form and the rigth conditions.,however ,i can't help notice he set a moderate pace but failed to finish that well.he took 21.4 were monkfish took 19.3 and even off you go took 20.8.monkfish got upto 5.9 ses in front by 3 out,but then it wen to 5.2 for the last 2 ,but then it went to 7.3 .now monkfish put in a brilliant performance ut kemboy as all out but still ran the final fence to the line slower than off you go both he and the storyteller ran 1-2 but seem llikely to go to the stayers hurdle which tells you how much of a impact this race as on the gold cup.melon as ridden differently for whatever reason and minella indo and delta works jumping let them down and they didnt appear to like the pace increase at 3 out,they soon jumped the 2nd last poorly.this alos leads me to believe minella indo is a out and out stayer and slow run races like this will find him out.in a way,this explains why he's done well at the festival the 2 times hes been there so far.so monfish looks th most likely winner to follow up,energumene and shishkin looks to be a thrilling contest,honeysuckle consistency may be enough alone to win the champion hurdle given what the others are doing by not running to there best form and kemboy goes hurdling !quilixios i feel won't beat zanihyr and elliott should consider the supreme for him as i don't think appreciate it as a easy task in the supreme.
at sandown ,a 6 race chase card on heavy means we will get ground really cut up.i did the sections of all 6 races and the final 3,albeit the lower class ones ,just seemed to slow for me and i suspect the ground was more testing by race 4 onwards.i've always been cautious of this ,i like to see a even 3 hurdle and 3 chase card and a bumper at the end,not some of those 5 hurdle and 2 chase cards we often see,especially on heavy ground.the 3 main races were native river,sporting john and moonlighter.now the 2m hcap chase on my ratings were the fastest.that 2m hap chase as saw dolos win it for the last 2 years and he came a close 2nd thsi year.first flow was a neck 2nd last year to dolos when i did the speed ratings last year,itchy feet was the fastest race winner and dolos s 2nd fastest.however on standard times review,i realised the 2m4f standard was too leneint aand so the races were reversed now dolos was the fastest winner and itchy feet was 2nd fastest and future form as confirmed this as itchy feet as struggled and first flow who was a neck 2nd as a novice,as become a grade 1 winner.moonlighter won but it as close and dolos did well of top weight.now it beomes tricky comparing sectionals when you have 2m ,2m4f and 3m races.
firstly i have to say i was hoping hitman would win the scilly ise and win it ell and h was going well before falling 5 out.given his good speed points form lto and how slow sporting john finished,i reckon he would of won this easy.nicholls as said he may go to aintree,yet anothe rindication that many trainers are looking at aintree as more winable options.however its the same owners as protectorak who i feel is out best 2m4f novice chaser and he loves cheltenham as well so they ma prefer to keep them apart and also nicholls wanted to run hitman in the dipper chase ,but came here instead as protectorak ran in that instead.sporting john tok 18.5 ses to get home from the last .over a second slower than moonlighter and native river.i've never rated shan blue that highly .but i feel he struggles with stiff finishes as well,whatever` the distance.even the 3 out and 2 out sectons are not great sporting john just passed more than normal retreating horses.
i love reading and listening to the pre race views of races like the cotswold chas with experinced horses in it.we have got to know the horses and even without looking at there form,e kind of kno what conditions that suit them.i did though read abotut how going righhanded may be a issue with a few and ntive river and bdm were two i read by some that they may not prefer that way.native river has a good record beyond this trip and on stiff tracks,hence whey he powered away at the end to go the finlal section pace of the 2m winner.bdm as faded up hils before and as he loves flat haydock,this is why at the end,he got further away from native river.to me there's nothing betwen them at there best,it just comes down to conditions.bdm would beat native river at haydock ,im sure of it.before this race ,bdm's form is simply haydock and wetherby as the last track other than haydock for him to last win at.both flat tracks.if you look at stiff tracks outside novice company,his form reads no wins form 7 ,well 8 losses now.you can see how he went from 2l down to 9l down from the last as the stiff finish told.this alsohappened in the year he came 3rd in the gold cup,he was in 2nd at the last and dropped to 3rd.native river as a much better record on stiff tracks than bdm and also as form upto 4m.santini ran poor and the whole season was geared around the gold cup.all may not be lost as various podcasts say the same thing about him and it was similar to altior really. henderson did warn about the heavy ground and i've said this before,you need to be careful with horses that have wind surgery that run on heavy even if the have ran well on it before.altior can't handle it no more and i'm certain frodon can't as well,both wind surgery horses.he neeed the run fto at aintree just like last year,kempton was a afterthought, but it did no harm as it would bring him on fitness wise,but this race was on heavy ground, he can't handle that well.i was certain he wouldn't win the gold cup last year ,but he nearly did and if it was soft or better,i wouldnt rule out him leaving this run well behind.
i wasted time really looking for drf bets when i knew deep down it was more a meeting for the future .i just about noticed ruinous at musselburgh and got the bet on in time.the reason why, he was 2nd to malystic who as won 2 races since he was 7l 2nd to protekorat ,the top uk 2m4f novice chaser imo.that caught my eye.malystic as a arkle entry but i exepct him to go for the grand annual and he may run a big race .the grand annual is on the wednesday this year,so no guide from how protektorat does in the marsh chase as thats on the thursday.
drf pointers 7 feb 21
yesterday was a tough day unless you did acca the main favs.cps and energumene i knew were most likely to win but embittered all he had to do was come 3rd at 40-1 but he came 4th and another 40-1 shot took 3rd.notebook loses to a horse he normally beats to mess up the forecast with cps.holymacompny ran another poor race and didnt put that poor effort lto behind him.i knew jp mac would do well in the 2m hcap chase and nominated 2 of his,but 2 others of his took first and 2nd.sharjah showed his inconsistenc agian and saldier and saint roi took a step backards also,quite unbelivable the mullins trio would throw stinkers all at the same time.abacadabras at least put his poor effort lto behind him but still not at his best.buildmeupbuttercup eas going well and then the jcokey stopped ridingand told the sstewards she stopped quickly.quite a few of mullisn horse had to be explained to the stewards why they ran poor despite his domination
sundays card and reasons
youmdor was a early seaosn juvenile i latched onto as he did agood time.zaniyihr as coem along since and done better but he fell lto when going the best t the last.i fancy him more than quilixios.
appreciate it is the real deal no doubt and i was wary of ferny hollow and ballyadam on what they did this season and ballyadam was beat by appreciate it lto as i expected.master mcshee was 1 secs slower than appreciate it lto at leopardstown but it was 6.4 from the 1st hurle to the line.appreciate it had to jump 2 less hurdles so 5 se really or 20 lengths.he did however run in a slower paced race but was able to match apprciate it 2 out to the line.he may be worth a forecast or ew bet
i like andy dufrense a lot but he as a tough task and his touhest task to date.14-1 appeals ew or a monkfish/andy dufrense forecast
minella indo is my antepost gold cup bet,so he needs to win this .theres not much betwen the rest on lto form and ths race last year ,but i feel we had a really good rsa lat year and he will prove it today
youmdor win only
master mcshee ew with paddy power,monye back if 2nd 3rd or 4th
andy dufrense ew and forecast with monkfish
minella indo win only
i will do the speed points by the end of next week as a lot ot go through along with sandown as well.
drf pointers 5 feb 21
the 2m6f grade 1 novice hurdle sees galliard de mensil and stattler as the 1st and 2nd favs .formlines from last sunday suggest galliard de mensil is the better horse and i suspected this anyway.however i feel its a race thats quite open and despite a formboost by mr incredible ,i wasnt expecting it to be the slowest time of the 5 hurdles that day,so now i'm wondering that gdm actually beat a poor horse in 8l 2nd.i think this may be best for a ew bet on this race and ashdale bobis a good price.holymacopony if you can forgive him lto,as beat gdm prior to his puuling up lto so in a open race ,it may be worth taking on the better priced 2 ,my preference is edging towards holymacopony
i was notebook pre seaosn fpr the champion chase and although he as proven himself to b better than ptko ,he was beaten well enough lto by cps who looks hard to oppose.6 runers as well means ew is limited.sizing pottsie at 33-1 i might take a place chance on .i have to beleive in the sectionals and ratings i give them or its a waste of time really doing it.i can't think why harrington went for that hurdle race lto as he fell when tired at the last.he did go off too fast so tiredness at the end was probably to be expected.i do feel though hes a horse that may need to race often.he once raced last seaosn 3 times in 27 days and i suspect he needed that run lto to fill in this gap waitng for drf from fairyhouse.he backed up my high opinion of felix desjy when 2nd to him by winning a handicap easy nto.cps in all honestly should win, but maybe sizing pottsie a place or even a forecast of the 2.i think also notebook my come 2nd again as i still rate him highly so maybe forecast the 2 to cps
ive written positive write ups for energumene ,unexpected and embittered but blackbow and darver star not so.embittered ran at xmas where felix desjy went fo too fats and paid the price with his 4th fence to 6th pace injection on top,totoally exhuasted himself by doing that.that should of set this race up for embittered in the rear with franco de port but he faield to finish.i think the 21 day rest after hard race against andy dufrense was too blame,i can spot this rest pattern in his form from last year at xmas as theres no way given his county hurdle placing after that he should of took a 20l beating by abacadabras.i was thinking off 144 they would go for the 2m hcap chase after this but they come here.gigginstown have 4 in that so it may not mean much but 144 is a rating that i feel he is better than easily but also it seems a waste not to use it in a handicap.i can't trust felix desjy not to go off 2 fast especially as energumene is a front runner as well.maybe they will change tactics with him.he was my arkel fancy early on but i dont feel cheltenahm will suit him now.this track should suit him really but it's just what he did lto that concerns me.at 28-1 embittered is a ew bet i think.
as embittered bizarrley goes for the irish arkle,i'm latching onto epsom du houx as i was thinking grand annual for him,but on 138 it would be wise to go for this first and see what happens.i dont like backing favs in big field hcaps but entoucas as well the 2nd fav might have a form boost if sizing pottise does well.aramax is a typical elliott novice chaser,average form early on for a few runs ,then wins a beginners chase just before the big handicaps come in the 2nd half of the season.on 141 ,he's 1lb lower than his hurdle rating.i like epsom du houx the most but might do a reverse csf with the 3 mentioned.
i will take honeysuckle on for quite a few reasons .the darver star formline suggest she cant beat sharjah although the mares allowance will help.de bromhead went for the mares last year and it was the right call give darver star was 3rd.aramon was just waiting for the county hurdle last year and sharjah ran below form in this.mullins as 3 this year,3 genuine contenders instead of 1.i can't believe saint roi ran to his best lto and i'm sure he will run better.sharjah may be the weakest really as i've said all season mullins will likely want to split the top 2m hurdles between them and i think saldier will be primed for this.abacadabras had mucus on his lungs lto and i rate him highly as well.both he and saint roi were my antepost selections before the season started.on times and sections abacadabras as a edge over honeysuckle as well.i think this is a close race and i will llay honeysuckle instead rather than try to pick from the other 3 or 4.
i thought buldmeupbuttercup ran a strange race lto but i think mullins was protecting her handicap mark for this as he had concertista in that.theres no way a 33l beating was her true running.jockey hardly made any effort to make up the ground as well around the final turn.14-1 i feel is a good ew bet in this and theres 7 places as well wtih some bookies
i'm still analysing sundays cards and i need to see what happens on saturday as well to tie up a few formlines but i will be doing this on saturday -
holymacopony 5 places ew hills 15-2
embittered 33-1 ew hills (3 places)
sizing pottsie 6.4 -1 for a place betfair and cps to beat sizing pottise and notebook 2 x c.s.f
epsom du houx 6-1 ew 6 places paddypower plus aramax and entoucas in 6 x c.s.f
honeysuckle (to lay) 2.6 - 1 to lay
buildmeupbuttercup 14-1 7 places ew skybet
Jumps point blog 30 jan 21
Dreal deal wins weak grade 2
i wish I had spent more time looking at the moscow flyer hurdle as when I looked back at my notes for ganapathi and magic tricks, who were 1st and 2nd fav,I wasn’t impressed on what they had done so far on the clock and/or sectionals.magic tricks race from navan also hadn’t worked out well with the 2nd 3rd and 5thnot upholding the form of the race.I wasn’t getting a good feeling for the race in m preview despite the good history of the race won by some top horses.I use the offical rtings as a guide,but the more exposed a horse is ,then I have more faith in it not being far off.with novices mainly,I look at it but I know it can be wrong on the limited evidence the handicapper as.but the dreal deal rated 141 had a 136 horse in 4.5l 3rd,so I was suspecting the worst before I even did the speed points and sections.given the race had a good pace ,when you see a 96 horse who won the 2m4 handicap hurdle in a time too close,its hard to say the dreal deal as improved on his 141 at all.it was all that was needed to win .tbf ,the handicapper as him on 145 ,up 4lb probably due to the fact the grade 2 status plays a apart .I love listening to podcasts and I heard one pundit say “clearly magic tricks ran below form” ! I ain’t so sure about that.it’s just typical of what they say when a fav gets beat like that,but it was only 12.25l which isn’t much really.
Was envoi allen fit?
there are three 2m3.5f/4/5 novice grade 1 chases in ireland in the lead up to the festival,compared to just one in the uk.the drinmore is the first at the end of november,then the fugheen novice chase at limerick over xmas ,that’s a more recent grade 1 and then the flogs at drf.in theory given the time gaps,all 3 can be done as we have 4 to 6 weeks rest.once envoi allen had won the drinmore after he won a beginners chase elliott chose a grade 3 in between xmas and drf.I think he may be wary of running in too many top races in the lead up to the festival.we saw some horse run poor at the festival after running at drf like notebook who probably won’t beat cps in the champion chase,but at least he did what I thought he could do and finish in front of ptko when at his best.andy dufrense is another I rate highly,but the easter meeting at fairyhouse was mentioned after he won lto.just by trainer comments alone,mullins xmas winners seem to be going straight to drf ,elliott seems to be not keen on one or 2 going there.to me he didn’t win was easy as it was made out.I look at the racing post form comments a lot and I’m getting frustrated with them a lot lately so I always look at alternative like the sporting life.it started with bog olinger win that was classed as “easily” I don’t think being ridden out from the last hurdle with the jockey not daring to look around and a 6l margin, only easing down 10 yards before the line is a easy win.they did the same here suggesting he won easy for a 3.5l victory.twice he had to be ridden from 2 out.I get the feeling they re over generous with there comments when it involves top class prospects like envoi allen.from the sectionals though,I can see when asked he responded by how quick he went compared to the other two chases that day and it also puts the runner up fils d’oudaires in a different light as well.i wasn’t impressed initially with how he had to work to win,but when I consider the sections and I also think he may not of been fully fit,hence why he went for a grade 3 like this.I think elliott got the early grade 1 in as planned,then is now building up towards the festival and wants to avoid the other grade ones and having too many hard races.this might be a thing to consider with envoi allen in the future.he ran him 3 times as a novice hurdler in roughly the same months as he as here and missed xmas and drf as well as a novice hurdler.he offers no value at all though in the marsh chase.
First flow is top class
I have a scale of 20 points for top class grade 1 horses when I decided to do speed points.I wished I had chosen higher figure now as I have to deal with minus ratings as a result of 20 not being high enough.if a horse in one 2m race is 10 secs slower over 2m on soft for example ,he is worth 20 points lower than the winner of the faster race and this happens a lot were you often see time difference exceeding 10 secs for two races over the same trip.i made a mistake on the flat when I stated to do speed points by giving highland reel 20 points as a starting point and he was a multiple group 1 winner and seemed one of the bst horses around at the time.I relied on the racing post standard to much for his 10f ascot win,that standard imo is wrong so I over rated highland reel,for that race at least and then it filtered through to the beaten horses and then when they ran against others and so on.what I should of done is waited and not apply any rating but just a temporary rating for the time being.so after last ears festival,I wasn’t going to do the same thing and lets most of this season develop to get a better picture.epatante for example I can go to 20,but there is a possibility of being lower on 18,still top class ,but not outstanding.I’m pretty sure cyrname as hit 20 when he won the ascot case in 2019 and in his match against altior last season.I’m certain cps is 20 ,if not higher even.this is hardly surprising the examples I’ve given,but I have ratings in my head what I think the likes of min and politologue are worth, but I don’t apply them as of yet and then work out the ratings for the beaten horse and other winners on the card.using the festival ratings i had in my head ,I had min 3 points better than melon.this wasn’t hard to work out as the ryanair chase winner was faster than the marsh chase photo 2nd on the same day.but then battleoverdoyen was in the race who ran in the rsa on a different day,so was min and champ equals or not?in the line up before the race,I had min on 20 and melon on 17 and battleoverdoen on 12.now 1 point is worth 2.5l over the 2m4f trip and to m amazement min beat melon by 3 points ,or 7.5l battleoverdoyen should of been beaten 20 lengths,22.5l in the end.now I don’t think min is a 20 horse,I have 18 I think I want to give him and have just waited for the season to progress to see if 18 fits for him.I reckon he was around 16 at 2 miles when getting beat by altior and at 2m4f he as improved 2 points to become a grade 1 horse,not outstading, but a consistent grade 1 performer.now in comparison with the rsa verses the champion chase,I’ve kept the ratings for the past 5 years now and its no surprise to see the champion chase always getting higher points than the rsa.however when I reviewed the standard times, I realisedthe 2m old course chase standard was too generous along with other standards at cheltenham.when I adjusted it ,the gap between the rsa and champion chase was now more realistic.in the past using the rp standards,the champion chase speed points I gave made the rsa look like class 2 handicappers, but then you have strong rsa’s like 2019 with santini ad delta work doing well after ,something didn’t feel right and I had wished i had reviewed the standards times much earlier.so the 2020 rsa actually now was a faster race then the champion chase.I think we all know the 2020 champion chase wasn’t the best given the circumstances that happened just before it.at the same time we have a below standard champion chase,I also believe we have another strong rsa,if not stronger than the 2019 version.that’s why in my antepost blog,the first blog I did on here,I was keen on minella indo for the gold cup and alloha or the ryanair.one started well and the other poorly ,but know its vice versa.at the same time,I thought the champion chase could be anybody's, so even nominated greenatean for ew purposes with notebook my main selection.I just couldn’t rate cps as he hadn’t run so took a chance at the better odds of the other 2.notebook got beat fair and square by cps by 6.5 lengths so is 3 points inferior.cps is 20 points if not 21 imo so outstanding.I only concentrated on festival horses and soon realised when I reviewed the season and other tracks, there was some good time performances once I got the standards right.I got sucked into thinking itchy feet was a good winner of the scilly isle chase and backed him in the marsh chase as a result),but the 2m4f chase standard is too generous,as a result,it was the 2m hcap chase that was the fastest race that day last febuary .it was won by dolos ,but first flow was a head 2nd now dolos is not top class,but I think he is ,or was better than most gave him credit for under the right circumstances and sandown 2m on testing brought out the best of him.he’s had wind surgery since so has had issues this season and he never ran well at cheltenham.first flow was a novice and they drew 14l clear of the 3rd as well that day,who then won a handicap at 25-1 after.first flow missed the festival and took in a few ungraded novice chases.I forgot about him until he won at ascot and he clocked a really good time.I did his sections only at wetherby, but the were good.I was frustrated he didn’t run in the tingle creek but kim bailey got one more handicap win out of him.I was keen to back him in the tingle creek, but got him at ascot .I was surprised myself to see him win as well as he did and take on politologue early enough.with politologue I have a 17 figure in my head ,grade 2 rating is what I thought he ran to in the champion chase.I believe,like nicholls does as well,he ran his race so first flow gets top honours of 20.this also now helps me with the other 2 chases on the card and there ratings is what they got on the day without downgrading it.my gut feeling though is cheltenham wont suit.I don’t believe he needs it like a bog as well,ascot was soft/gdsf when he won there.he hasn’t been there since he pulled up in the supreme when hanging as well.10-1 is still value ,but I feel kim bailey has been a bit deliberate in avoiding cheltenam,sometimes it may be down to the fact cheltenham was at the wrong time ,but he was rated 148 and had just won easy at doncaster ,but he went to carlise instead of the arkle were he would of got his soft ground at least.another horse who I rated high once as well was fanion d’estruval and pleased to see him finish were he did.I love situations like this were you have a grade 1 and these so called handicappers rated 150ish upset the high 160 types.imo we had weak grade 1 chasers and 2m handicappers that were better than they were rated and so it proved at ascot.on another note first flow is now 166 and politologue is 168!I do understand that horses rise quickly and it take a while for there ratings to go down,but I think first flow should be 172 and politologue 165,the same grade 2 rating he was before he won the champion chase.
Does roksana stay 3m?
i developed a theory a while back that she didn’t stay the trip and 2m4f was her best trip.now she’s won 2 from 3 this season over the trip or near about.however i can’t help feel that she as a lot of speed and her stamina might be stretched in a true run stayers hurdle,if such one exists.I think on good ground,sharp tracks and slow paces ,she as done well at 3m.its more common to get a slow pace at 3m hurdles than a true test.the long distance hurdle was a crawl for 1m2f,the long walk was a better pace but not great.the stayers hurdle may not have a great pace,it did last year,but penhills win one year was a absolute crawl of a race.I can see why skelton is having a hard time choosing her target,she was beat in the mares hurdle last year and the year she won, benie des dieux fell and would of probably won.she has already been beaten by the stayers hurdle 1st and 2nd fav this season also.I do wonder if cheltenham suits here as well as other courses.she may be worth betting on at aintree instead.I feel another crack at the mares is more realistic despite concertista in it. also finally we have a decent stayers hurdle for once if the likes of thyme hill,pailsey park and sire de berlais turn up.imo we have not had a great stayers hurdle since thistlecracks demolition job
How good is royal pegialle?
i’m having a hard time getting a grip on him tbh.I first noticed him about half hour before he won at haydock as he as the rich ricci silks and not trained by mullins.he is the 2nd best novice chaser in the uk apparently .I’m going to take a bold approach and suggest that’s it for him for the time being.he’s actually a 3rd season chaser as he had a season in france over fences and ran twice in the uk in his 2nd season.due to the fact he never won,he remains a novice so eligible for more races.I had trouble with haydock last week.some race times made no sense and I suspect the distances given or the yards they gave as extra weren’t quite right.the frost covers as well were on still just before the off so re-measuring may of been difficult and we had shared bends.the 3m class 3 handicap hurdle for example was too fast for my likening compared to the 2m hurdles.i still did the speed points but I paid more attention to the sectionals really.in comparison to silver hallmarks sections,it showed the peter marsh chase when they got the first 3 fences out the way,were slightly in front of the novice chase over 2m4f.however they then started to get slower at each fence until they got to around 3 secs or so and it stayed like that fr a few fences until it went to 4.6 behind at 3 out,this was the point royal pegaille was now clear .he led at the 11th and before he led,they were steadily getting slower,but he put a stop to that and maintained similar fractions till 3 out the when in no danger didn’t need to run as fats and was eased so it ended up 5 secs slower in the end.I I trust the standards I used,then he as ran 1 point faster overall compared to silver hallmark so it was a solid enough race early on the peter marsh was.looking at the sections ,I reckon he could of gone 2 secs quicker,or 8 lengths near the end.in my view ,he beat a class 3 handicapper who hate heavy ground in potters legend.4 times he rans on heavy over fences and 2 pulled ups and a 35l beating by frodon with a similar weight difference frodon is a grade 1 horse at least.I think connections said It well as they seemed more down to earth about it mentioning the likes of sam brown not running and sam’s adventure unseating made it a poorer race.so he won’t go for the rsa as monkfish is in it,but somehow the gold cup is a option?I wouldn’t mind if I had given him a decent speed point or sections showed something other than the fact he’s overrated imo.if I’m wrong, I’m wrong, but I’m taking this view he’s now better than around 155.when the likes of double shuffle who he thrashed in 3rd at kempton come out and win,it’s hard to crab him but this is where knowing certain horses well enough gives you more confidence as I backed double shuffle in the novice hcap chase at the festival and I’m certain a lack of recent run cost him that day.he is the best horse to come out that race when he finished 3rd He prefers better ground as well and as a great record on his 3rd run.so 2nd run on soft meant he got beat by 22l in which I don’t believe he should of and 3rd run ,lower rating and better ground saw him win nto.that kemtpon win was much the slower of the 3 chases,albeit its unfair to compare him to 2m chases ,but shiskin was awesome, but I’ve never rated nube negra that highly and when looking at the sections of the 2 races as I ignored shishkins freakishly fast sections ,I though he should of done better considering how slow they went .he loves it soft and as improved but is he really gold cup class?
Tritonic and Craignieche/casi loupi look interesting
The 2m4f grade 3 hcap hurdle at ascot was the fastest race of all 4 hurdles which is no surprise.i have to look at the fastest races in context with other races on the card and how far are they also in front.I had this race 6 points faster than roksana but her race suffered due to pace,hence why I question her stamina .we had 4 hurdle race sall over different distances which make sectional comparisons more tricky.tritonic ran nearly a fast as roksana did overall.this juvenile hurdle saw tritonic and casa loupi battle it out to drew well clear of the 3rd.this race as a good history and goshen won it last year but there’s been other good horses win it.tritonic was a 99 flat horse and the 2nd horse is trained by gary moore who was after a 2nd win in it.alan king likes winning it the most and added to it again with the winner.I feel these pair are the better juveniles we have seen from the uk this season.I was impressed with there sections from 2 out,quite eye catching really as this is were the winner went into 2nd and was being ridden to catch the front running runner up,the sections showed they were both quickening up well and not just a case of the 3rd weakening away.the grade 3 hcap hurdle over 2m4f saw a decent pace being set and I rated kateson highly for his aintree win but he took a 10l beating,albeit he carried more weight and comes out better than the winner on weight related ratings.I’m war of horses who win fats but with low weights.I separate the weights into 4 sections A,B,C and D so 10st to 10st6lb,10st7lb to 10st13lbs,11st to 11st6lb and 11tst7lb +.I like to see horse carry at least C weights.exposed handicappers under A and B weights I’m wary off but when the likes of craignieche do it,I will take more notice.silver streak ran fast under low weights and he became a grade 2 horse.verdana blue was the same and first flow as well.saint roi B weight(was almost C weight), but he wasn’t the best horse on ratings in the county hurdle compared to aramon under top weight in 2nd.they were all lightly raced types though.buzz also this year I was wary off when 3rd under a low weight in the welsh champion hurdle.craignieche hadn’t run for over a year and won a maiden last time we saw him and he bled that day as well.I’m going to assume the coral cup is a target and 139 means he will surely get in and be in the lower half of the weights.he’s 16-1 for that.
Champion hurdle trial not that good
The amount of graded races as increased over the years and quite frankly we need a cull, kevin blake as gone on about for ages now in his atr column and I can’t agree more.I would get rid of the many clouds grade 2 chase,,the hennessy is a week before and then you have a open 3m hcap chase at ascot after and then the king george.this is only about 10 years old this race and was listed to begin with.this race is 2 weeks before the listed contenders hurdle at sandown and it gave us 3 runners this year.as I write this,trials day card is abandoned at cheltenham and there talking about saving the cotswold chase and cleeve hurdle.if they run the cotwold at sandown next week,then a week after we have the denman chase,.those races are normally 2 weeks apart and I can sort of agree with that,but forget saving the cotswold chase,those horse can go to newbury after and why not add the prize money from that race and make the denman chase a valuable grade 2 rave that should get at least 8 runners ?the irish gold cup will have many runners from the savilles chase in it again taking each other on.I’d rather have one good 8 runner race than two 4 runner races.if champ as to take on santini,then so be it.the cleeve hurdle I think should be saved,the other option is haydock a week after newbury.if you run the cleeve a week later,there is 2 weeks gap between the cleeve and the rendlesham .I think in the build up to cheltenham ,especially with the more experienced horses,you need to have a good 5 weeks rest prior .so newbury fits well and drf in ireland also.the rendlesham saw the last horse to do the stayers hurdle double in 2002.the cleeve hurdle moved from 2m5f to 3m a few years later and I think that race as suffered as a result of the increase and many of the top trainers shun it more now and want to go to the cleeve instead.back to the champion hurdle trial and the outsider of the 3 won by making all,he won a class 3 hcap at mussleburgh lto.how did he beat a grade 1 and 2 performer? Well the time was officially faster than the grade 2 novice hurdle,but form 1st hurdle to the line,it was 1.5 secs behind.there is often a different time when you do it this way.some race start with the horse in full stride as they pass the tapes and other races there dwindling.once the first is out the way,they often get on with even if the leader does not want to lead.I question also when they actually start the clock and the consistency in it.if you look at flat sections ,you see 11/12 secs a furlong,but the first furlong is around 15 secs,because its taking at least 3 secs to get into full stride.at certain courses there’s a long run to the first and this is not ideal,you need ideally no more than a furlong to the first obstacle and I do it this way.navajo pass did set a decent pace in the attempt to lead,but after 2 hurdles he slowed it down as he had got the lead and ballyhandy accepted it and didn’t force the issue,so when you compare the sections to Faivoir in the novice grade 2,you see he ran 0.8 quicker over the fist 2,or 3 lengths, but from the 3rd he was 1.5 secs slower(6 lengths) than around 2 secs slower(8 lengths) for the next 5.only from the last to the line did he run a bit faster and get it down back to 1.5 secs behind again.that to me is a slow final furlong due to the ability of the horse who is not graded imo.donald mccain as nominated aintree as well as he knows.what was also weird about about haydock,is the 3m class 3 hcap hurdle was the fastest on my speed points.I can’t judge how fast the early pace was as it was only the 3m hurdle on the cad and I can only compare the sections from the last 2 miles of the race,but they were 1.4 secs behind Faivoir at the 4th (2nd hurdle in the 2m hurdles races) and by the 6th had got to 5.5 secs behind,so the pace slowed down a lot mid race and continued to get slower.it was a class 3 race at the end of the day,but the winner was rated 127.he ended up 12.5 secs slower for the last 2 miles of the race compared to Faivoir but he as come out the fastest on overall speed ratings so clearly something is wrong somewhere.there did seem a fast early pace and maybe they ran fats enough early on to get a decent time in the end despite how slow they were from 6 out ,but I suspect the distances are not right, but if they are right,then keep a eye out for potters hedger and co as they are way better than class 3 handicappers!!
Alloha delivers at last, but elimay not to be underestimated
I was glad sundays thursles card was saved and ran a few days later.I was windering maeb cheltenham could do the same ,run it Tuesday for example instead of just saving 2 races.however thurlse was due to a frozen track,water logging is different and if there is rain forecast ,then its unlikely to improve in 3 days if water logged.the 2m4f grade 2 chase is a new race.mow I do moan about the increase in graded race which means horse can find it easier to avoid each other and we have small fields,but the 2m4f chase programme is strange as its geared towards the 2nd half of the season.this is why you see many running at 2m or 3m early in the season.the john durkan in early december is the first 2m4f grade 1.in the uk its febuary at ascot.mullins had to run many against each other and he finally relented that alloha is a 2m4f type,although he still suggests even now he looks like a 3 miler.he takes a lot to get fit ,so needed the john durkan run and than had a go at the savilles chase where it was finally confirmed he doesn’t stay.he moved melon up in trip and he ran well over 3m as he was never going to beat min at 2m4f.alloha can’t beat minella indo at 3m plus,that seems to be a fact now as well.he finally got his chance here as drf don’t do a 2m4f chase,like the xmas meeting at leoaprdstown,they have 2m1f and 3m grade 1 chases at both meetings so min didn’t run at xmas this year and will probably run at drf over 2m1f taking on cps.so a grade 2 2m4f chase in-between looked needed and it gave alloha the chance to win again.there was a mares grade 2 as well over thee same trip and alloah was 5 secs quicker than colreevy now she had it easy from 2 out,especially form 1 out as here rival fell 2 out to leave here in a clear lead so she took 17.1 and alloha took 15.2.I think is he wasn’t eased,colreevy would of matched alloha at 15.2 but she still would have been 3 secs behind overall.mullin’s nominated a mares chase at limerick at the dame time as the festival rather than the mares chase or marsh chase as he as run her against geldings this season with success.I think he is wise to the fact elimay would beat her and she looks a good mares chase prospect.It seemed obvious the mares chase was going to be another mullin’s race and he has benie des dieux and elimay now at the head of the betting.I’ve been impressed with elimay as this was her first run over fences and looked like she would give alloha something to think about.it looked like salsaretta would be his main mares chase horse at the beginning of the season but its all changed now.however we have a mullins-jp mac-ricci-henderson situation going on.jp mac also as dame de compagnie in it like elimay who won a ayr novice chase well.they also have mares hurdles entries still and I’m wondering if jp mac will want one in each.rich ricci as benie de dieux in it as well as the now running poor salsaretta. mullins as concertista in the mares hurdle owned by simon munir and isaac soude and she will run in that for sure and take on honeysuckle.at least the colreevy headache is solved with the limerick race.alloha is my antepost bet for the ryanair chase and next season I’m going to be careful betting on the ryanair chase antepost.due to lack of 2m4f top races and the firepower mullins as,horses like alloha have to suffer over the wrong trip until the 2nd half of the season or making way for his stablemates and I failed to take into account he’s a hard horse to get fit,so early season losses was predictable for alloha.saint calvados as tried 3m as well and waiting patiently 3m and 2m also.they are 2m4f horses.quite why they don’t go the amlin chase - peterborough chase - silvi conti chase and then ascot chase I ain’t sure.they are grade 2’s before you get to the ascot chase which is grade 1.the trainers seem to prefer grade 1’s like the tingle creek and king george.
Elliotts time of year for big handicaps
I saw on twitter or whatever ta question about aramix put forward to racing experts on rtv /atr etc ,can’t remember which but the question was why as aramax been so poor until he won the beginners chase recently?well I think peopel get carried away with a festival winner,he won a handicap hurdle of 138 ,there are 0-140 races that are class 3’s.the fred winter is a handicap for all the deadwood not to be in the way in the triumph hurdle.I don’t know if the person was expecting improvement over fences,but many fred winter horses are flat racers or flat bred and unlikely to be better chasers,aramax isn’t flat bred though,but in general,it isnt hard to see why the fred winter doesn’t provide future grade 1 horses.I think I did reply with just look at chosen mate ,the grand annual winner who won a beginners chase prior,but his 2 runs over fences before that were poor.that was not aramax’s true running in the galway hurdle,but they went novice chasing and he ran ok fto,but then rab poor on his 2nd run.he finall wins a beginners chase and gets a 141 rating just before he is going to run in a drf big handicap.chosen mate and eclair de beaufeu the grand annual 1-2 were the same chosen mate had run well behind melon but ran to poor to be true after before winning a beginners chase by 11l.he had 147 in the grand annual,the uk handicapper more harsh but it didn’t stop him winning. eclair de beaufeu showed decent form prior to his grade 3 25l beating and was given 140 after.straight to a drf big handicap chase and he won and ran well in the grand annual of 8lb higher.so last week we saw the thyestes 60k hcap chase won by coko beach and run wild fred in 2nd for a elliott 1-2 in the race.both are novices and rated 138 and 136.this is what elliott does well and coko beach had run 4 times without winning in beginners chases.the irish handicapper is lenient with these types of horses but I think elliott just exposed the vulnerability in the rating system.beginners chases I’ve kept a eye on this year and with selectional rating I’ve done at many top irish meetings,these beginners chase are often worthy of graded class.I was always surprise to see irish beginner chase winners go onto win a grade 1 novice chase nto compared to the uk were if you take a horse like shan blue the kauto star grade 1 winner,he ran in 2 novice chases at class 4 level and was a non runner in early december I think due to abandonment in another novice chase.the best novice chasers in ireland simply win a beginners chase and then a grade 1.they don’t bother going beginners chase then rated novice chase/ grade 3/grade 2 etc,its a grade 1 straight away as the beginners chase they have won is virtually a graded contest at top tracks in all but name.the ones that don’t win like coko beach then become handicappers and often run a poor race on the eve of there handicap rating they are about to get,as coko beach first 2 runs were good ,but it was obvious he wasn’t going to be a top class novice chaser,so he then runs poor against lesser types after before getting his 138 rating.I was on the look out for potential drf handicappers from the elliott yard but was unaware of this thyestes chase until it was too late and when I saw the result I wasn’t surprised at all it was a elliott 1-2 with novice chasers who hadn’t run a race over fences yet.if you win a beginners chase,you are then into graded novice chases really.by losing beginners chases,you have run well probably against future grade 1 winners but you keep your beginners chase status for anther go.if it fails a 2nd time,then you are doing no harm to your initial chase rating you will get,just look at run wild fred form prior to his 2nd in the thyestes chase in beginners chase’s,he gets close to latest exhibition but then takes 2 big loses after before getting a 2nd before his handicap chase debut .he as ran 5 times with 2 races being poor so the handicapper I think can’t get a grip on him at all and gives him a low rating for starters.the uk handicapper I think would go harsher and he does when they run at the festival as he isn’t as easily fooled by so called poor runs in beginners chases.given he got to 4l of latest exhibition who was close up in the albert bartlett and as since got to 3l of monkfish in a grade 1 novice chase,you would of thought he was worth more than 136.I think the uk handicapper would of used that as his basis and gone mid 140s if he ran here in the uk in a handicap chase.the irish handicapper seems to of taken his recent 2 runs into consideration more.
Sams profile looks likely to struggle in stayers hurdle
The galmoy is a 3m grade 2 hurdle,the cleeve equivalent really and run at the same time end of january.however if you look at the history of this race,it doesn’t attract stayer hurdles like the cleeve does.alpha des obeau in 2016 may of been a decent stayers hurdle winner but bumped into the awesome thistlecrack that day.presenting percy used it for chase warm ups and benie des dieux used it for a mares hurdle prep.in contrast the cleeve is a serious stayers hurdle contest.they also have the xmas hurdle over xmas at leopardstown over 3m.it was dominated by mares like apples jade and vroom vroom mag who also went to the mares hurdle a lot.shaneshill was a failed chaser who won it and pulled up in the stayers after and fell in the xmas hurdle the time before.the irish 3m hurdle division is not as straight forward as the uk one which is basically the long distance-long walk and cleeve hurdle.no xmas hurdle runner from the flooring porter,sire de berlais,the storyteller and fury road ran in this which I find strange as drf doesn’t have a 3m graded hurdle.it leaves the boyne hurdle over 2m5f and grade 2 as the only likely stayers hurdle prep for those now or the pertemps qualifier at drf which is not to be underestimated by any means as we saw ronald pump get a 2nd last year in the stayers hurdle.I didn’t do a full sectional as the varying race distances and I dint have reliable standard times for irish courses,I only do leopardstown and that’s hard work due to lack of rail movement info.I do use a method called average seconds per furlong (aspf) and then I look at the last 2 or 3 hurdles sectionals.sams profile did 18.40 aspf and the 2m4.5f maiden hurdle winner did 18.19 aspf.now you have to take into account the extra distance but the 2m maiden winner did 17.31 aspf ,that’s quite a big difference really now.I then suspect a slow pace in the galmoy hurdle due to there slow aspf and there was 7 in it 2 out to suggest not a good pace.however I was disappointed with there final 3 hurdles sections considering they went slow.they took 15.5 form the last as well when the maiden winner took 12.9.even the poor hcap hurdle took 14.1.we had a 43 horse in 2nd as well in the galmoy hurdle.I think the heavier than heavy ground played a big part in the times,the aspf of 17.31 and 18.40 are some of the slowest you will see due to how heavy the ground was.I am used to 16 secs or so on heavy but taking 17 secs is virtually unraceable ground so I expect them to be better on better ground. I’ve looked at his form on top and I’m not convinced and would need to improve a lot to be in the reckoning in the stayers hurdle.I still expect sire de berlais to show he’s better than lto and thyme hill goes straight there which I like the idea off.those were my two antepost selections back in may.out of interest ,song of earth and johngus may be decent horses given there big aspf differences over the other 2 races,but then again can we be sure the ran over the exact trips stated?
Sam barton looks promising
Doncaster had to provide us with the action due to cheltenham being off.henderson was doing his usual moaning about the going when asked about santini taking part in the cotwold chase.he declared him anyway for it to be abandoned.I think he knew it would be off anyway as nico was booked at donny.he also said he could run in the haydock grand nation trial which is a handicap as a alternative ,but why didn’t he go for the skybet chase at donny as a 2nd preference?he’s made it clear he wont run him in the denman against champ ,that is he runs in that.I had a sneaky small stayers hurdle 25-1 bet on him the other week.with the cotswold being moved to sandown,I don’t think he will be that happy as he often says the ground there can be bad.
It was nice to ibleo win at donny in the fastest of the 2 chases.his recent form behind the likes of sky pirate is top form and he’s won twice now since.you would say grand annual but I think its becoming a race for unexposed types like last year.of the hurdles races,it was the 2m3f maiden hurdle that was fastest by me won by sam barton and better than the listed 4yo race.the class 5 race seemed to be fast, but had 4 hurdles omitted,so that around 2.8 secs saved. Sam barton won by 2.25l with 18l back to 3rd,which is always a good sign and he was rated 135.I’m not suggesting a 155 figure for him,but the time back it up a a good race and emma levelle looks to have a decent novice hurdler on her hands here as does kim bailey with the edgar wallace optimise prime who as beat sam barton was. due to run in the warwick grade 2 last week and as a ballymore entry.I think around a mid 140s performance from sam barton here ,not ballymore class but might be underestimated next time he runs.
Shishkin aewsome again,now more question marks over royal pegaille
Shishkin is top class,over hurdles and fences,no question.he won easy in the lightning grade 2 novice chase.I would of preferred him to race allmankind at warwick in a couple of weeks,but I never thought henderson was serious when he said that after kempton.this didn’t tell us much really as eldorado allen once he took over him was in trouble really.on a card were the hurdles races were disappointing ,the river don is one of the worst grade 2 novice hurdles you will come across,its history is poor and this ear was no different with a 128 winner with a top rated 135 horse.were talking class 3 .the pace was good but final sections really slow due to a combination of a strong pace and poor horses for a grade 2 race.it was slightly slower final speed points than the class 4 hcap hurdle over 2m3f and that race was 1 point of miranda in the listed mares race.tbf to moranda she was stalking floressa 3 out and it was only a matter of time before the button was presses for her to beat her off.I looked back at her kempton win from dec 19 and found out that was the fastest race of the hurdles that day but seems to dislike mussleburgh.floressa won the gerry fielden and its safe to say we don’t have another epatante on our hands.she won that by making all at a slow pace.in this race,she tracked a fast pace set by the outside,but she slowed it down by 5 out and then floressa took over 3 out but didn’t need to run any faster to lead,the pace setter had enough by then,so it wasn’t a case of she chased a fast pace and paid the price,she just isn’t very good really.her 15l beating in the xmas hurdle seems to prove that anyway.maries rock ran worse but she wore a tongue tie for the first time so I think maybe she has issues at least for a excuse.hard to know what to make of miranda really,she could be pattern class against her own sex in these grade 3 or listed race but forget it at grade 2 level or above in open sex races.
Takingrisks got up late to win the listed skybet chase.when you do the time difference between that race and the class 4 hcap chase,it makes it look not that good.I will though say that race had 2 horses who drew away 15l clear of the 3rd and a further 15l back to 4th which may indicate maybe better than class 4 status.takingrisks is a 12yo and now for the 3rd year in a row ,a veteran or 10yo + as won this race.he was 4th in the rehearsal chase won by yorkhill another listed class handicap chase that for the 2nd year was also won by a veteran and it was takingrisks that won it in 2019 as a 10yo.I was interested in this race as cap du nord was fav after his 2nd to royal pegaille and he also was receiving weight from the front two.he held every chance in the home straight but couldn’t do it..now as I write this,I had already written the above about royal pegaille a few days ago and waited to he had ran before posting this.I think cap du nord doesn’t handle soft ground that well and was surprised to see him get 2nd lto on soft.however I feel he got close to royal pegaille because he is not the 166 horse that the uk handicapper as us to believe and many other ratings services seem to of gone overboard with him.
i will preview sandowns card in the week and we will know more if the cleeve and the cotswold will be added to the card or elsewhere.we also have the dublin racing festival as well ,so next weekends racing is going to be very informative and I will have to start early and try to get a preview out.the drf is a festival in its own right and I can see some patterns emerging already at this meeting and what effect it as on the festival and beyond.certain race sat the festival still have question marks over them and hopefully drf and sandown will clear some of this up.
.
16/1/21
metier on his 2nd run at ascot produced a very good time,slighty better than buzz in his race and he wetn a bit better again in the tolworth.last years 5 grades 1's before te festival,thats the henry viii,challow,tolworth,scilly isle and kauto star werent exactly the best for grades 1's with thyme hill doing well.some years are poorer than others but i think this year is different as allmankinds henry viii chase win was fast and so was the tolworth.the kauto star looks poor imo but the challow hurdle ive got a open mind about as it wasn't that fast by bravemansgame ,but his final section was very impressive.as appreciate it is a short fav and deservidly so for the supreme,i think the uk novice hurdlers are a good bunch this year.its a pity the tolworth and challow hurdle are so close together as it stops horses doing the double and i think bravemansgame as 2m speed and would like to see him in the supreme if it was testing ground.being ex-flat metier i think will do well at the 2m division and cant see him trying longer trips and he likes a bit of soft ground as well.he can be held up as well so tactics dont seem to bother him.i can't wait to see him in the betfair hurdle next month.
there are some good 2m hcap chasers around with first flow a horse who hopefully will run in the clarence house chase next week.amoola gold who he beat chased home sky pirate at warwick to clock anther good time and the like of ibleo who as been beaten by those pair as won a sandown 2m hcap chase in a fast time.
at kempton mcfabulus won the relkeel well.i will however say it was a grade 2 performance and i see aintree was nominated.i'm not surprised as nicholls isn't that bothered by the festival these days.he would rather win big races all seaosn as he has done and also dan skelton ,his ex assistant as been saying similar things like calling the fstival a monster and aslo mentioned bypassing the festival with a few of his.its just the big ownes club these days the fstival his,jp mac,gigginstown,rich ricci etc.cheveley park stud look like the wil be taking over the gap from gigginstown as well in the future.mcfabulous i think is all about chasing though and nicholls as even mentioned the kauto star chase as a target,this makes sense as often you see 2m4f types win that race.
master tommytucker ran fast as he always seems to do.i read a article by ben aitken in narrowingthefield website highlighting his record in small fields.since then all racing tv presenters and pundits seemed to of latched onto this fact,but i think theres more to it than that and its nicholls comments that got me thinking after his silvi conti win.yes he won a 4 horse race again,well 3 for the majority of the race and he ran poorly in a big field at cheltenham the time before,the 4th that day he battered at haydock previously and he was behind him at cheltenham.he nearly fell at the last,and if he did so,he would of lost a 4 horse race.i blame the jockey abit as he loked round from 2 out and i think he slowed the horse down slightyl so his stride was wromh coming to the last.that what i feel is the issue with tommytucker he doesnt adjust himself that well so goes long or short at fences.i also think though and sectionals back me up,he doesnt know how to run slow.the pace just got uicker in comparision to the other 2m4 chase at every stage.thsi will take a lot out of a horse by his running style of winning by big margins going a fast pace.nicholls said cheltenham came too soon and i can see that after his haydock romp it was just 21 days.that is too short really to get over a race were you have ran fats.he doesnt seem to keep anything back in reserves for himself.maybe the jockey is wary of easing him up and maybe causing a jumping error if his stride as shortened.nicholls also said cheltenham isn't his track and he prefers flat tracks,so aintree again looks more ideal and he misses the festival may be a wise move.surley the melling chase as to be his main target.its a shame imperial aura fell,but i'm not convinced he would of won based on how fats master tommytucker won here.he may of pressured him in the home straight,but he was already running fast anyway and it seemed to be a slight derease in pace when the jockey looked round that could of caused that final flight error.i think imperial aura would of been struggling after the 2nd last to go with him.
the dipper chase at wincanton this ear is a strange race fro a novice chase as it seems to attract older novices ifyou look at the history.i think th etiming of the race and race distance influences it.at 2m4f,many of the winners were good hurdlers but your either a 2 milers or 3miler and 2m4f hurdlers struggle at 2m or 3m.theres nthong for them until aintree.so they have a few seasons trying before the trainer finally goes novice chasing.yanworth and oscar whiskey are 2 winners and examples of what im talking about after 3 seasons of hurdles and not good enoiugh at 2m or 3m oscar whiskey went chasing and won this as a 9yo.the trainer can find many 2m3f novice chase opportinities and then aim for this then the scilley isle after if he wants.messiure des obeax was the onl 9yo in it with two 6yo rivals and won,she as had 3 seasons over hurdles even despite her time off.protecktorat is a hors ei like.i thinkhe sets a high 2m4f novice chase standard and has a good chance in the marsh chase.this track thouhh saw him not produce his best.he as spent so long at testing track now,it as to be by design by skelton rather than coincedence it juts happens to be were the most suitable races were at the time he ran.he jumped slightly left but he got outpaced on this quick flat track before staying on well.as a result,the winners odds for the marsh went shorter than his ,were he drifted.you can get 33-1 now for the marsh chase for him or 69-1 on betfair as i write this.this is also another example of a rae been over rated by the handicapper.the winner on 147 is now 152 liem protecktorat who was 154 and now 152.the 3rd was a 137 horse in this and was previously 3rd to fusil raffles.now why didn't his rating go up from 137 lto when beaten 3.75l to fusil raffles rated 152 and carrying 8lb more?he surely needed to go to 140ish after that but he didnt.hes on 140 now though.i think because lto that race was a class 2 and not a grade 2.even his 140 makes no sense as he took a near 7l beating here and 2l of protecktorat reciving 3lb,so thats 5l really.he should be something like 147.i think the handicapper knows he as finished too close but is much better than 140.mdo won't robably go for handicaps anyway after this but that option as been took away from her really.she will have to run in a grade 1 novice chase or carry a 6lb penalty in a grade 2 novice chase from now on.this is her kind of track as well so cheltenham looks like it wont suit.
over at chepstow adagio won the finale hurdle in the fastets hurdle time yes,but i'm not convined by him.in a year were elliott seems to have so many good 4yo hurdlers,he as been beaten by one of his anyway who seems to be 3rd string in elliotts yard and he was supposed to run here but couldn't because of travel restrictions.his final time differenc eover witness protection was not that great.pozo emery did some good final sections in the 2m3f maiden hurdle and is one to keep a eye on.my ew rnair shout cepage won the 2m4f hcap chase.cheltenham new years day meeting stage a 2m4f grade 3 hcap chase and he surely would of ran there instead if not abandonded.at one stage it looked like esprit du large was all over him.i don't liek him that much as he won a novice grade 1 and is not a grade 1 horse.however,this was a handicap and 151 is about right for him and he seems to of found his lebel now to run at.cepage thouhh once heaed fought back and by the last,it had now looked like he was goin better before edl fell .he was trying a longer trip and it seemed to be working till after 2 out when he had to be pushed and fell heavily at the last when tired.50-1 for th ryaniar cepage is and rated 158,other options like the brown advisory is possible but he will be top weight i reckon
at fairyhouse i was suprised to see sizing pottsie in a hurdle race.he went of really fast and fell at the last as he was so tired.i hope that fall doesnt effect his confidence and can't believe harrington went for a race like this.he is a very good 2m chaser.now this lead me to energueme who won at 2m at naas a few days later.he ran fast over 2m4f reviosuly ansd we were all unsure of what trip he would need,from 2m to 3m6f.now hes put that to bed,he has serious pace.i think this years arkle will be one hell of a race.my own ratings says the 2m novice chasers are really good and theres a few of them.in comparison,the rsa and ive said this all season,our 3m novice chasers arent that good and kauto star winner shan blue is unlikely to come to the rsa and the festival at all.for me shishkin,allmanking and energumene are top notch 2m chasers.i have even mentioned that shishkin should go for the clarence hourse but looks set to take on allmankind at warwick next month and that should be a good race.there are others like andy dufrense who i rate highly but may not go to the festival again.felix desjy is another despite hsi defeat lto.he is good but i dont think cheltenham suits him.i have a suspicion as well allmankind may not be suited to cheltenham but only time will tell.i think this years arkle will be a small but high quality field.that being so,i can see the grand annual being a hot race.this was a race for older exposed types,croco bay was 12 when he won it in 2019,but lat year ,the unexposed type dominated it.this as happened in the county hurdle where that was like a 2nd divison of the supreme hurdle.last years grand annual wasnt quite a 2nd division of the arkle,but i think we will have very good novice in it like sizing pottsie and embittered in it.i think alot of trainers will view it as a better option than the arkle.that being so sky pirate is fav for it after his warwick win.i like sky pirate he as won 2 from 2 now over 2m but i think the tongue tie as helped him more.he as done fast times as mentioned earlier on the page.he is even 20-1 for thre arkle as hes a novice despite 3 seasons chasing.hes been running over 3m and 2m4f trips.i cant believe jonjo oneil as got his trip that wrong,i think his breating as been afactor of his poor form.i would say he can go 2m4f.from a stat point of view ,he would be a major negative for the arkel.ben linfoot as mentioned him as a arke bet and i like that kind of thinking.the trouble is as mentioned,we have strong graded novice chasers,it is a real strong area i think 2m novice chasers this season.if he goes fro the grand annual,he may be not well handciapped enough now.he will be 150+ now for this latets win,we saw greenatean go from 133 to 150 last year and possible cost him (along woth a blunder near the end) this is the time to keep a eye on irish novices likelast years winner chosen mate won a beginners chase in january after not showing that much prior.imo this year,i think the better irish novice chasers have been out like sizing pottsie and embittered and would normally go for the arkle but this looks more ideal.bob olinger went fav for his lawless of naas win.its mazing now how every pundit seem to be taking about times and sectional times.i listen to alot of podcasts as well and its creeping in alot as well as on tv.i do however think many people cant get there head round it,so they quote simon rowland alot for example from time form who is a expert on the subject.the most obvious way to do it is to take 2 races over the same distance and time it using replays and lap it at each fence/hurdle.i noticed a rtv or atr guy tweet this after the bob olinger race and copared it to the 2m3f hurdle,onl 1f difference and 1 hurdle less and yes,compard to that it is impressive ,something like over 10 secs difference.the trouble is,you hav eto be convinced the other race was a fast as they could of gone.ive fell into that trap myslef.this is ato do with pace,if you go slow early on,ou need to go faster late on and not leave it too late to get a a time that mathe your abilty .some races are uncompetitive and you get a easy winner of a slow pace and they didn;t have to exert till very late in,meaning the final time they clokced is slower than what should if been expected as the 2m3f hcap hurdle was imo.alos there was a 2m hurdle on the same card that helped me out more.now comparing sections from differen t distanes like 2m v 2m4f is more confusing as you have to take into accont the difference in trips as wel all now the longer you go,the slower you need to go to get the trip.on eagles wings 2m maiden win puts a different persepctive on it.bo olinger only beat him by 3.7 ses for the same 2m worth of hurdles.with weigth an extra distances taking into acount,ive worked it out to around 5 ses or 20 lengths.i have no previous form of that maiden winner as too lightly raced,but he won by 2.5l and 2.5l back to 3rd.mayebe a big margin winner i would of assume he was a good maiden winner or if the front 2 had drew clear of the rest,but im not getting over excited by this maiden at all.i think bob olinger was a good winner but not a outstanding winner.also i find it beneficial if you preview races before hand,especially with lightly raced tpes.i try to do this more often now as in anticipation of what to or not to expect.this season i thinm i have mentioned im wary of the champion bumper form,i was wary of ferny hollow,appreciate it and ballyadam although he didnt race in it.i wasn't impressed with there times an/or sections as i was expecting more.ferny hollow is injured but ballyadam as been put in his place by appreciate it.ive now concluded that i think the champion bumper despite not being as vinntage as othr years,appreciate it for whatever reason failed to perform to his best that day.this though may mean that it may be cheltenham that was the issue so be wary of him in the supreme hurdle.so as a result of coming 2nd to ferny hollow ,i have dounts about how good bob olinger really is.hes fav for the ballymore and could win it,bravemansgame im open minded about at present but i know he showed a lot of speed at the end of the challow hurdle and 2m5f at cheltenham may find him out.the supreme is lookig like a hotter rae than the ballymore at present.
so back at warwick and sky pirate ive already talked about.as i mentioned the benefits of previewing a race beforehand so you get a idea of the runenrs before they race and what to expect and looking at how the form as worked out as well gives you a better understanding.the hampto 3m grade 2 novice chase had 3 runners and i was disapointe dby the line up.i aint sure what i was expeting but happygolucky bwas entered at the 5 day stage im sure .next destiantion won it,but his newbury form isnt great.ive banged on how fiddlerontheroof isnt that good and needs to be in a hcap chase of 145.that tolworth win seems to make people think he is better than he is.so when i did the times and setionals,i wasnt expecting much and so it proved.i dont do warwick standardss have i enot got round to it.it was too late for me to review them as it take a long time to be confident in doing standard time,i ue racing post as a base ,but then i adjust them quite often.so i use sectionals and also average seconds per furlongs using other races to compare.beforehand i expected the 2m hcap chase t be the fastst and this to be slower,despite it being a grade 2 and higher rated horses officially and carrying less weight.theres was 0.5 ses difference between the average seconds per furlong.now a 2m race should have faster average seconds per furlong (aspf) than a 3m race obvioulsy but its never no more than 0.4 secs and often around 0.3 secs when i look at various 2m and 3m standards at different courses.this difference of 0.5 is big really and highlight how average the 3m grade 2 novice chase was as i expected and also a bit of how above average the 2m hcap chasers are as sky pirate beating alooma gold by 2l and clear of the 3rd is what i exepcted to happen.i then looked at the sectionals and used the 3m5f classic chase as a guide as well.it was always going to be trciky with a 2m,3m and 3m5f chase on the same card to do sectionals.i also like to use form book comments to see if this matches what ahappens in the sectionals.i decied that the novice chasers didnt go a good pace early on,it wasnt slow b any means but the formbook comments and your own eyes as well indicate next destinaion had to be pushed along at the12th and fiddlersontheroof had to be nudges long at the 13th.thsi is were golan fortune kicked on and in the sections it shows as well as the classic hase over 3m5f had a faster pace than thsi race uptill the 13th fence.it was around 1.3 ses in front and for a fair amount of time as wel,but from the 12th ,the novices got faster to go just 0.5 behind and by the 14th had took over to go 0.4 secs in front.i can see thsi as well using the 2m hap chas,they were around 1.3 ses behind ,but at the 14th got it down to 1.1 and 1 sec at the 15th.golan fortune looked to be going well in front as he turned on the gas,but had probabl gone a bit too soon as i doubt the other 2 jockeys would of made a challange at that point to go for the lead.also his misatke 3 out cost him 3l and then he had to swicth on the ouside and rally and it took its toll in the end.he was only bbeaten 6.5l though so admiration to him for trying when clearly tired by now.i think though he finished 6.5l adrfit because the other 2 wernt that fast from the last ,it was a slow final section.it took 18.2 secs compared to sky pirates 16.7.now the classic chase winner took 19.9 but that had a better early pae and they are marathon runners.considering the pace of the 3m novice chase wasnt has good as the other 2 races,i think they should of finished a bit better than 18.2.you cant expect 16.7 like the 2 milers did bu the final 3 out sections as well,this is where nexr destination led at 3 out was 59.1 compared to sky pirates 55 secs.i was unsure how good next destination was but that fact he didnt draw away from fiddleronthe roof,who also i was wary off over the 3m trip,and the final sections tells me hes a bit limited and i cant have him for the rsa.the rsa chase however may be a bit weak this year,especially from a uk perspective and no were near as hot as the arkle contenders.monkfish looks solid form ireland but there are othrs like escaria ten who seem to be under the radar.royal pageille is a horse i cant rate properly atm as well.we have the likes of next destination,the big breakaway and hurricane harvey recent grade 2 winners or grade 1 2nds to beat monkfish and latest exibition.i have hopes for happygolucky though,but kim bailey may do what he did to first flow and try ungraded novice chases.he would of won the grade 2 at donny i reckon if he had gone for that instead of the class 2 at cheltenham.thats a good thing though as he as no grade 2 penalty so the reynoldstown at ascot may be a suitable option
it was sad to see youmdor fall at the last in a 4yo ireland at punchestown.he look ot be going better than the winner.i mentioed him in my earier blogs when he had won in the autumn.there was other hurdle races to comapre and that race was the fastest as you would expec but division 2 of the 2m2f maidn puts it into perspective more.it was 4.6 quiker than the maiden in the end.that may turn out ot be agood race and i will keep a ey on that race,but zanihayr iss till numb rone and teahupoo looks 3rd choice for elliott and may eve ngo fred winter.chatam street lad had the 2m4f grade 3 option against envoi allen but took the 2m1f hcap chase instead and came 3rd.i suppose this kind of comfirms he need longer now.entoucas was 4th and i was interested in him becuase he came 2nd to sizing pottise recently in a fast race.however his jumping let him down ,twice not fluent near the end and pecked on landing early on as well.daly tiger won this at 20-1 and if you look at his form,you can see why.he goes well fresh 4 from 4 fto he is.he was meant to race against cps in the hilly way chase and he had beat tornado flyer who was 2nd to min after .he was 20-1 because he ran poor in the sizing pottsie race but it came too soon in 4 weeks rest.he didnt stay in the nortern trust chase at the festival and i think he only won fto this season at 2m3.5f because he had a 13lb pull over tornado flyer and was at his best fto.he probably would of been better off in the grand annual last year of 139 but gigginsotwn had a 2nd in that race.he wull be 150+ now plus extra from the uk handicapper to make life hard for him at the festival.i analysed this race because beginners chases in irleand at top tracks are top quality but aramax won it.fred winter winners dont do that well really,but hes not ex flat like many that struggle over fences after.the pace was roughly the same as the hcap chase till 3 out,but then the dffiference in clas tol.graded types would of kept it up but he dropped to 1.7 2 oput then 3.4 at the last and 3.4 at the line.with a 132 horse in 2nd ,the form is what it is,the sectionals back it up,it was not better than the handciappers rating of the using the 2nd .he would of been 11l of daly tiger who is rated 147 and he beat a 132 horse by 2.5l so 12.5l in it on ratings and 11l on the times, close enough.
next wek ses the clarence house at ascot.its a open race really with no stars i feel politologue is evens fav and should be,but the likes of first flow and fanion destreval should not be underrated.i like first flow a lot.we have a weak 2m chas situation caused by altior now at the end of his career and not much as come through recently.duc de geneivres was a good arkle winner i thought but has had his issues and he is in this but not as good as he once was.last years arkle saw uk horses get stuffed although i beleive rougbe vif and global citizen are good horses on gdsf or good ground.thats been a issue as well,we dont have many that can handle soft that well so the likes of nuge negra win the desert orchid chase.henderson should of considered this for shishkin, thats the trouble as well,we rely on henderson as it seems the same story sprinter sacre then altior and now shishkin.allmankind looks top notch but i have doubts about his cheltenham suitability with cps looking like a beast,the irish may dominate the chase 2m divison for a while longer yet
1/1/21
lots to go through over the xmas period so i'll start with kempton.in a big race,its often foolish to disgard outsiders,especially those that have top level form.monalee missed it due to the travel ban and he himslef got a injury a few days leter so missed the tramore race and will probably miss the rest of the season now.after the gold cup and betfair chase,i did think lostintranslation would be suited to the king george.the easy 3m on gdsf ground at kempton would be ideal so i chose him but unfortantley he broke a blood vessel and ran poor again.tizzard will be aiming him for the denman and says he needs a drop in class.grade 1 to grade 2 is a class drop on paper,but it depends on the oppostion so if santini turns up,he won't really be dropping in class.just before the race itself,i was windering about the pace and atr pace predictor said it wasnt going to be that good.i then thought froodon will be the leader in which he was and allowed to get away with slwo fractions.when altior was a non runner at sandown,henderson got a lot of stick but when things happen to horses like wind ops etc,you have to be careful with there form before .its ok altior winning the 2018 tingle creek on soft,but he's had a wind op since and such horse often struggle on testing ground after so it wasn't wise to assume he can handle testing ground these days.frodon himself as had a wind op and he's got heavy ground form as well,but i think he too needs better ground these days.he has raced on soft 3 times since his wind op and been beaten,twice in races were the fences were not jumped in the home straight and nicholls used this as a excuse.he took a 15l beating in the ryanair on soft last season.despite the fences missing at aintree,he took a 82l beating on soft ground that day so no way was fences alone to blame.it amazes me how many top horses fail to run to form in big races.i wasn't keen on cyrname anyway as i don't think he stays but he was beaten before stamina was a issue.nicholls made a remark since saying he's a timid horse and wetherby suited him as he raced on the outer and close up.now such horse dont like jumping in big fields often.kempton is sharp as well and then given a slow pace,all the horse were bunched up closer than normal.this might explain why he ran poor as he was held up in the rear and going wide on a sharp course means giiving away lots of ground.some course running wide isn't a hinderance that much rgegal encore for example always races wide,hes similar that he doesnt like being crowded ,but ascot for some reason running wide doesn't prove costly.he as good form at ascot himself.mabe if frodon didn't run in this,he may of been able to lead whcih suits him better.cdo ran on well for 3rd but the slow pace mean't it was going to be hard for him to quicken up and his jumping wasn't the best either.santini struggled with the slow pace and track,so i ignored 2 of the first 3 in the betting but couldn't ignore cdo but has fav i decided to latch on to lostintranslation which didn't work.its hard to know were nicholl goes here with his 4 runners.cdo won't go to the gold cup,this is the race for him and nothing went right for him and hes been beaten at aintree twice and maybe prefers righthanded trackscryname as big field issues and really doesnt stay.he needs to go back to the ascot chase really.frodon for the gold cup?the pace wasn't that strong last year and he does like cheltenham but i can't imagine he will get a easy lead again in a top race.i would go ryanair with him but nicholls will go gold cup.
the xmas hurdle won by silver streak saw a 10l turnaround fo form from last year with epatante which the mistake 3 out was the reason that cost her.im not so sure about that and with henderson closing his yard down for 2 weeks,she may not of been at her best anyway silver streak didn't over do it in front,he set the same sections to the 4th as the novices did.then he got faster as what normally happens in the 2nd half of a race till 3.4 secs in front.however from the last that 3.4 secs went down to 2.7 and then the same from the last to the line.a true grade 1 horse would of maintained that 3.4 secs,so he hasn't ran any better than before and thats why he's been beaten in 5 other grade ones.he's a consistent type and took full advantage of epatantes poor run.third time lucki is a horse i don't rate that highly even though he won this and the time before.hsi final time wasn't graeat really.but he jumps well unlike flic ou voyou who's 2nd hurdle mistake took the stufing out of him early on.then on to victory fell at the 2nd last.
i've been saying for a while that the uk doesn't have that many good 3m novice chasers.at 2 miles were quite good,but we have had a good year in 2018 in the kauto star chase with santini in 3rd but it looks like it will be more similar to last year with slate house beating black op who was then beaten 17l in the king george later on.this race also often is won b a horse who really doesn't stay 3m and will prove better over 2m4/5f like dynsate.shan blue was at the end of his stamian here and skelton as ruled out the rsa chase.lto at wetherby,he finished with 110% finishing speed,that means he showed a lot of pace of a slow pace,hence why i never gave him a good rating.the big breakaway seems gifted with stamina but the nature for the track and his jumping poved costly.it was no surprise to see golan fortune still in conention before he gave way at the last.he was the fastets chase winner of the day,but that was because the king george was run at a slow pace and the 2m4.5f novice hcap chase is class 3.however he was only 4 points quicker than killer clown which is poor really for a grade 1 verses a class 3 race.this was berely listed class peformance imo .i worked it out to a 150 performance which he is 152 but given hes beat a 148 horse and 160 in 3rd and a grade 1,i reckon he will get a much higher rating by the handicapper
on day 2,altior flopped and was later found to scoped badly.theres' nit many top 2m chaser on the uk that like soft ground.altior as we all now doesn't like it no more but the likes of rouge vif ,sceau royaland global citizen need decent ground,so this left nuge negra to claim it.rouge vif beat him easily on last year on gdsf.the time was poor 2.7 secs slower than shishkin but i got 4.2 secs from 1st to the line.shishkin looks set to go to warwick ,but if i was henderson ,i would consider the clarence house chase.
over at wetherby first flow won again.i rate this horse after his 2nd at sandown last year in a fast time.hes won 5 races since with kim bailey taking advantage of winning ungraded novice chases instead of going for the arkle.he was entered in the tingle creek but bailey took another hcap in instead.its now got to the point were he will have to run in graded races and the clarence house at ascot is the target.i think he would of won this if he turned up here.
the 4 days at leopardown saw gordon elliott annouce he will be doing a henderson for the next few weeks and taking it easy.abacadabras scoped poorly as he ran poor in the mathesons hurdle.i was also cautious of the tongue tie he wore for the first time.with mullins having many top 2 mile hurdlers in his yard,its no suprise to me he won it.with different owners,he just takes it in turns winning them.he doesn't seem interested in running in the fighting fifth or xmas hurdle at kempton.that wasn't a option for saint roi who jp mac also owns epatante.imo that's not his true running for whatever reason.it will not surprise me if we get a different result in the irish champion hurdle with the mullins runners.on the plus side,abacadabras and saint roi are value again now and sharjah himself can throw poor ones in like the irish champion hurdle last year.i thnk mullins will win the irish champioh hurdle with either saint roi or saldier.concertista won a grade 3 but i would of liked to see her in the mathesons huurdle but it made sense to take in this race.buildmeupbuttercup may of jumped poorly,but she was held up as usual but the jockey made no effort to get closer when concertista jockey asked to get closer.i suspected mullins is trying to get her handicap mark down a bit.she took a decent beating here with the valuable handicaps at drf coming up
monkfish won well in a battle with latest exhibition were they ran close in the albert bartlett.he is fav for the rsa but it wasn't outstanding on the clock.it seems to be better than the kauto star chase though.he will run at drf next.
cps blew away notebook and simply stnning time performance.i did think notebook would beat ptko and he did,but was no match for cps.as long as he stays sound,i can't see what can beat him.maybe if he runs at drf like he will,it may knock him off form.this may give notebook a chance if he avoids drf meeting and goes straight to the champion chase.he was my antepost choice but he will need cps to run poor in reality.ptko at least now as the mares chase option.she probably would of won at kempton is allowed to travel over.
my arkle hope felix desjy took a beating.it was a strage race though as he set a fast pace,it really was when i analysed the sections.he did though weaken at the 6th and he got nearly 10 secs in front of the 2m1f hcap chase .as soon as he lost the lead,it went down to 6 secs and then got steadily slower at each fence.it ended up only 2.9 secs quicker by the winner franco de port.it was a good efforts when i converted the tiem into lengths and weights carried but i feel shishkin is faster.felix desjy needs to learn to race better as he is better than this.i can't see how though as he will surely be lit up by other front runners in the arkle.i was also disapointed with embittered who was held up but didn't run any sort of race.he as come 2nd twice in fast races and i think this 3 week rest was the reason.he ran poor last year at this meeting on his 3rd run like this.
zanihiyr won a crawl of a race so it told us little really but i know hes fast anyway.appreciate it did though.i'm wary of the champion bumper form i don't rate ferny hollow that highly and hes injured now.this was a good time here for hsi 9l win.i was also wary of ballyadam and so it proved.with ferny hollow injured ,it might make sense for ballyadam to go longer as he hasn't the pace for 2m.i also suspect apprecite it didn't run to his best in the champion bumper for whatever reason.ballyadam was ordinary on the clock at down royal and set a slow pace to win the royal bond lto.i think though he is a bit limited really and 2m4f may not make any difference.
monday was the strangest day though.i was certain a plus tard wound't stay and was hoping he would run in the 2m1f grade 1 chase he won last year.he would of done if it was more testing going but de bromhead had 2 in that so it made sense to try this along with minella indo.mullins also stated he was keen to try melon over further as he wasn't going to beat min at 2m4f.kemboy set a good pace and is certain 3m stayer so it was a wise move.the pace got up to 9.5 secs quicker than the big getaway race.it was only 4 secs at the end as the fast pace took its toll on many.the race saw alloha not get home as which as long been suspected.mullins as sated he's taking longer to get proper fit,but 2m4f races don't come until the 2nd half of the season so they have to run in races like this.thats why races like the ryanair chase see's horse who last ran in this or the king george win it.minella indo fall means de bromhead as a dillema now.if he won this,i think he would of rested him to the gold cup.now i feel he will be keen to get him out again before the gold cup.he may go irish gold cup,but he may find a grade 2 or 3 instead like the bobbyjo chase in febuary.i don't know what to make of apt gold cup chances.if kemboy hadn't fluffed the last,he may of won.if melon didn't fluff 2 out,he may of won.there's not a lot between them and jsut one mistake all it took between winning and losing at the crucial point of the race.with al boum photo winning ,minella indo deserving another chance and champ still to come,i feel he might find at least one of them too much in the gold cup
in the 3m grade 1 hurdle,i thought sire de berlais would win it.i did think he had a edge over the albert bartlett form and fury road behind him seemed to prove that.however flooring porter won it from the front.he had a form boost from the bosses oscar who he beat by 12l lto after he came a close 2nd in the pertemps qualidier in the race before.now the pertesp was run 2.7 secs quicker,or 2.2 from the 1st hurdle to the line.however the pace set by the floooring porter was faster but only till 3 out then the pertemps got quicker,so really the flooring porter hasn't done that much better than he has before,its just then likes of sdb and fury road didn't pick up and it was left to the storyteller to come from the rear to try and get him but it was too much for him.there was a weight difference that made it more than less equal in the end.however it was gaillard de mesnil that clocked the good time of the hurdle races and i think were going to hear a lot more about him.it is possible the light rain effected the times and he won the first race which may of been a bit quicker.sdb may not like leopardstown,it is possible and i assumed in the past he as lost pertemps qualifiers becasue they just want to come 6th.he ran 9th in it last year and had to go to warwick to qulaifiy.he loves cheltenham though so,again,there is now value again in his odds like a few others i chose for my antepost selections back in may 2020.this also gives suspicion elliotts yard may not be 100% at the moment as the failed to pick up at the end of the race.
so many of my antepost choices for the big 5 races took a blow over xmas but i have faith bar notebook really that they will put these races behind them and show there true form come cheltenham and/or drf meeting.i can't complain as they had all done well early on in the season and there prices collapsed as a result.
at newbury bravemansgame won the challow with rave reviews.however it's left me a bit confused.it was the fastest hurdle race yes,but it wasn't as fast as i thought it should be.his final section as well was very fast and it echoes nicholls comments when he compared him to denman but as more speed.i agree with that as he showed 2m speed imo at the last.when i convert speed points ,it makes it around low 140s imo.i was expecting 150 tbh.wilde about oscar is a horse i feel is underrated.however he hit 3 out and then the jockey loked downa nd pulled him up.i didn't rate does he know and he ran ouit but star gate had won a slow run grade 2 lto.this is why graded races at novice level are not worth it most the time.the winter novices hurdle grade 2 at sandown as been a poor race for a few years now and he won it.he was put in his place here by a a ungraded novice hurdle winner.its the same over fences as happygolucky i believe is out best 3m novice chaser at present but he's only won a class 2 novice chase ,yet on the same day hurrican harvey won a grade 2 novice chase at donny which is a poor graded novice chase and i will bet this year is no different.
talking of happygolucky ,i see kim bailey may be doing his usualy cautious approach and he is big odds for the rsa and nh chase.it wouldn't surprise me if he did a first flow with him and go for a handicap or keep him in ungraded novice chases were he will be the highest rated horse in the race by far and be big odds.i do these speed points to see how the lightly raced and unexposed types are doing early on before they get established form.there no point in speed points really in races like the king george,there about as fast as each other and you need to find patterns in there form instead and the race conditions on the day and pace scenerio is more important.now and a gain i will find horses that are underestimated and paint the dream was one horse who won the 2m6f hcap chase at newbury and i nearly missed him.this is because he ran 24l 3rd to protektoret at cheltenham and i backed him that day.after i did the ratings,i realised he ran in a hot race.then i noticed he was 2nd to happygolucky at stratford.he then finds himself in a class 3 novice hcap chase carrying under 11stone.he will go to mid 140s now but he hasnt ran any better really as he as ran to the same speed points as the other handicap chases on the card.he was a close 2nd in the dipper chase last year to midnight shadow who as ran 2nd in twice from 4 since in graded races.
24/12/20
this is a little peice on potential targets for a few of the top horse for the remainder of the season.theres been a few imformative trainer comments i've read over the last few days and i will try to read between the lines as that's how trainers talk really.i'll start with nicky henderson who as a unibet blog and also many youtube videos.
it starts with santini who runs in the king egorge and we wasn;t expecting that.this also coincides with champ missing the savilles chase.i was never convinced that champ would make it to the race as you could tell the way henderson says he might make it,it to me was obvious it was a race agaisnt time.champ had a wind op in mid october i think.he also had to have intensive schooling with henrietta knight as henderson as said he needs to improve his jumping.now i think by running santini in the king george ,it leaves the cotswold open for champ now.santini is well suited to cheltenham more than kempton but he would ideally like to keep them apart.if he runs in the king george,then 4 weeks to the cotswold may not be ideal ,so the denman 6 weeks away gives him more time.also if champ jumps poorly in the cotswold,they can reconsider going hurdling.they did it with buveur d'air late in the day.there is a hurdling option in feburary like the rendlesham grade 2 3m hurdle at haydock.this all depends on how he jumps i feel.hes 50-1 for the stayers hurdle and obviously he will be way shorter if they do go hurdling.if champ does stay chasing,the irish gold cup i think he will go for before cheltenham.caribean boy lost a graduation race recently and henderson feels 3 weeks rest after a incredible time was the reason.henderson has hardly ever mentioned race times when talking about his horses.i think he's been advised he ran a great time,which it was't really and that graduation race came along and he thought it was easy pickings ,depsite in his own words it came too soon.as he wasnt a novice no more,that race seemed ideal for him.for the record,the speed points i gave him was 1 point less than hendersons other winner that day ellusive belle in the class 3 hcap chase.a grade 2 winner if a genuine grade 2 horse would get a bigger rating than a class 3 hcap winner.he looks set for a break now and then be aimed for spring targets.i would think and depsit hendersons stable tour quote about soft ground which he saidn in october,he feels after his newbury win and ascot flop,better ground may be more suitsable for him,so misses the winter soft ground now.
paul nicholls i thought made a interesting quote about cyrname in the build up to the king george.i personally feel he wont win as he looks a doubtful stayer.nicholls often is adamant a horse will stay or act at a certain track and when it doesnt , he will try again .clan des obeaux doesn't act at chelteham ,but nicholls tried again last season despite his flop the race before.this is what i find strange about frodons comments about being aimed for the gold cup.after he won the cotswold in 2019,he went for the ryanair.now because he wins a 3m1f cheltenham hcap chase,then the gold cup is the talk again.he flopped in the many clouds chase but i feel after his breathing op,testing ground doesn't suit him.3m on gdsf at kempton i feel will suit him though and it wouldn't surprise me if he ran well in the king george.he won't win a gold cup thouhh regardless how he gets on in this.cyrname may of been effected with the hard race he had last year when he got beat in the king george.he either didn't stay and/or it came too soon after a mid november race.so nicholls raced him 2 weeks earlier this year to give him a bigger rest for the king george.the charlie hall was a steady run race and he was the best horse in the race.he lasted home but it wasn't convincing he stayed imo.if he flops in this and i think he will.then nicholls will be ruling him him of trying again.he always tries a 2nd time at a big race and does something different in the build up and if it doesn't work,then he realises it wasn't to be and then rules it out a 3rd time,like clan des obeaux 2 gold cup runs ,but he won't be going for a 3rd.
the irish travel ban to the uk as hindered henry de bromhead i feel.gordon elliott as been effected also,but to a lesser extent.monalee missed the king george and now he is entered in the saville chase,but minella indo as the same owner.i think he will go to tramore no and take on abp.i thought he would run a big race in the king george,but he as beat abp ove 2m5f before.i think the ryanair will be his target and it wont surprise me if he won at tramore.put the kettle on misses the desert orchid as well so looks set to run against notebook his stablemate and cps.this i feel will decide her target at cheltenham,and i suspect the mares chase it will be.kempton i feel wounn't suit her but it ws more to do with avoiding her stablemate and he thought altior wasn't going to be there as well.life is going to get hard for her now i think in open grade 1's.as a result of too many graded races,aspire tower runs in a 4yo only grade 3 ,instead of the mathsons taking on abacadabras again.i don't know why they feel we need 4yo hurdle races at the end of december,but it means a easier option for apsire tower which they would be mad to dismiss.a plus tard looks set to run in the savilles chase as the ground is yielding.i don't think he as much chance ,but there is little option really for him other than take on his stablemates notebook and ptko over 2m1f.
gordon elliott didn't run duffle coat at doncaster in the grade 2 ,but as entered in the grade 1 at chepstow.now he can't go there.quilixious was also entered at chepstow and elliott was keen to keep him and zanihiya apart.now he will go for the one on trials day at the end of january,probably duffle coat and quilixios at the spring hurdle at drf.zanihiya will certainly miss drf and go straight to the triumph hurdle.
ferny hollow as been ruled out for the seaosn and it may mean appreciate it goes a different route now.a champion bumper horse will ideally be suited for the ballymore rather than the supreme.ferny hollow is in the same ownership as ballyadam cheveley park stud.appreciate it and ballyadam face each other in the 2m grade 1 novice hurdle.this was always going to happen i feel and i don't know who will win.i do think the champion bumper form isn't that good ,just a gut feeling it aint that good.
23/12/20
not many graded novice hurdles are worthy of there status ,and also the same can be said of graded novice chases,but not as bad as novice hurdles.the kennel gate novice hurdle aat ascot is one of the ones that does derserve graded status and this year was no exception as my drogo clocked a good time.you can see the size and scope of him by the tv pictures,so whatever he does over hurdles this seaosn is a bonus,he is going to be better as a chaser.lto he won a slow run hurdle and its hard to judge how good they are when there is little pace on.this race was run at a good pace and i liked the line upw hen i previewed the race,there was lots of potential on offer here and so it proved and the beaten types are worth keeping a eye on as well.this years festival migth not be on the agenda of the winner but this was a good fast race.dan skelton as a few good novices with protektoret ,wilde about oscar and now my drogo.
the noel novice chase is one worth of its graded status also and nicholls and henderson dominate it usually and it was henderson's allart who won on his chase debut.its not uncommon to see nicholls and henderson start chasers of in graded novice chases.i think these trainers realise they are not often contested by graded horses.henderson does usually run his better one fto over chases in graded races,but nicholls does run average types in it so it means nothing really.fidlersontheroof is a novice hurdle grade 1 winner and a classic example of horses getting overated by winning a novice graded race.he as done nothing to suggest hes graded class over fences so far in 4 attempts now.this race was only run 2 points faster on my scale than the class 3 novice hcap chase won by enzo d'airy.however i'm not going to knock allart based on this.he didn't lead to the last as his jockey was confident he had fiddlersontherof's measure .he wa spushed along 4 out and led 2 out ,so he was asked fro the effort to win the race and he didn't and thats the best he could do on the clock as a result.the pace was behind the novice hcap chasers at 4 out but thats were the graded noovice chase made inroads on it ,at the point fiddlrsontheroof was asked for a effort but he failed to get faster than the novice hcap chasers despite having enough time to do it.a proper graded horse would of.allart didn't either,but he was only asked for a effort late on and almost made the 2 secs deficit to zero from the last.if he was asked earlier he would of and won by more than the 2.75l.this was his first chase run and hes lightly raced over hurdles as well.fiddlersonthe roof in now on 4 chase runs and i can't see him get any better.i don't know what to make of pic d'orny as i was baffled by nicholls comments the slower grou d will help.he did say hes not a natural of fences and will need time,but softer ground can make it harder as well and he showed his best run over hurdles on good.i think maybe he may be back over hurdles which is no bad things as his rating as now gone down to 147 and possible the betfair hurdle again would be a logical target.
on saturday,i did suggets 4 horses at big odds could win the grade 3 hcap hurdle.i went with the wrong one in the end as not so sleepy won it.he lves it aroud ascot.but i wouldn't say hes a one track type.buzz was the moral winner off top weight but i think this is a good contest.buzz ran fats lto but i was a bit wary of him as he carried a low weight when 3rd to sceau royal .low weight fast times can be confusing at times but the likes of silver streak ran fast of low weigths in the past in handicaps and then turned out to be graded horses.as 3 of the first 4 i had previous ratings for and were top raitngs on the day they ran,i feel this race as astring look about it.i'm not going to knock the commentator for suggesting the long walk had a strong pace.it was certainly better than the long distance at newbury,but in comparision ot the 3m hcap hurdle ran earlier,it wasn't.however ,the first 4 hurdles were upto 2.3 behind the handicappers,but they then started to close in on the long run to the 6th hurdle and get 2.5 secs in fromt at the last and then in the battle to win ,both thyme hill and paisley park went antheer 2.9 secs in front to make 5.4 in the end.enough of the race was soundly run to suggest it wasnt false run like lto may of suggetsted,but the 2 same horse were at the finish.my antepost bets,i suggested thyme hill and sire de berlais for the stayers.i am wary of pasiley park as i wasn't sure how good he was based on last seasons times.some slow run races made it hard to judge him plus he had that heart issue so i excluded him,but there's nothing in it between the 2.however,i always slightl favoured sire de berlais over thyme hill as i knew how good sire de barlais is but not quite that sure about thyme hill as of when he had just ran 4th in the albert bartlett.as he was being aimed at the stayers hurdle and i had gave him a top rating for his challow hurdle win,it made sense to take the 16-1 for the stayers.on a formline with third wind beaten 14.5l here,thsi puts sire de berlais ahead based on the 8.75l beating by him but recieving 11lbs in the pertemps hurdle.i'm always wary of a horse whos rating goes throught the roof based on one big performance.this happened to paisley park when winning the 2019 cleeve hill by 12l.he was put up from 156 to 168 despite only rising 4lbs on average for each of his last wins.he never ran to that mark again,with even i read the handicappers blog he didn'tt need to win as he did enough when rating his win in the cleeve hill i think.that maybe the case he didnt need to run to 168 to win his next couple but his rating was left unchanged.yet in the stayers hurdle when he flopped due to his heart,than the handicapper felt he needed to downgrade him.when beaten lto by thyme hill he dropped him to 165 .now imo he was a 160ish horse really,so he beats a 160 rated horse in thyme hill by a neck,thats nothing and he stays on 165 but tyhme hill goes to 162 despite level weights thy carried.eitheer thyme hill is 165 like paisley park or paisley park is 162!third wind is consistent imo and he was rated 144 and took a 14.5l beating ,so thats 159 for the winner.it wont't matter really as they won't run in handicaps but is hows how the handicapper can easily overrate horses,especially a big win in a graded race.i think elliott missed a trick i not running fury road or sire de berlais in this instead of racing the together at leopardstown over xmas.he had a good chance of taking both races.i hope sire de berias and fury road battle it out at xmas,i suspect sire de berlais will have his measure.i also read champ is missing the saville chase and could run in a hurdle race next.i think there's a little hint there.jp mac owns sire de berlais and champ,if sire de berlais loses to fury road,he may consider champ for the stayers.he's not the best jumper and i suggested a few months ago we need to keep a eye on champ for the stayers hurdle.we saw douvan go for the ryanair instead of the gold cup for a reason he wasn't at his best or something like that so was unlikely to win a gold cup.the gold cup is the harder race than the stayers based on the ability of the contenders plus champs jumping may be a concern.buvuer d'air when novice chasing and won but was soon reverted back to hurdles and won the champion hurdle afterwards. this would leave jp mac having now gold cup horse though unless easyland is being considered,so it's hard to judge which way they are thinking with champ.
bennys king was the fastest chase of the day ,so the graduation chase which i think they should scrap,had graded winners in it but was slower.itchy feet stayed on again after feeling the pinch mid race like lto.there was the 3m hcap option but because of this race,the trainer went here.given his rating,he probably felt the conditions of the race suited him more than the distance,so it was worth running over 2m5f than 3m.it didnt work though.he's another one who is a grade 1 winner in a novice chase,but i seriously doubt he will win a grade 1 in open company.
at navan,i was annoyed with myself when i looked at ashdale bobs form.he was 14-1 and the horse he beat in 2nd fakiera was 5-1 and gabynako ws 6-1.fakiera had beat gabnako in a maiden.both had won since and not only that lietenant command in 4th was also behind fakiera lto.ashdale bob ran on the same card as fakiera at navan in november and clocked a time 0.3 sesc faster,but 1st to the line was 0.8 secs in favour of fakiera however,ashdale bob carried 8lb more that day and was carying 3lb less here,so despite the 3l advantage fakiera had ,the 11lb weigth difference made it in favour of ashdale bob this is one of the main reasons i do speed points,to find hidden gems like this but i totally missed it.
at thurles on sunday escaria ten won the beginners chase by 20l.he beat a 135 horse in 2nd and a 130 horse in 22l 3rd,albeit limited evidence its there most likely rating.there was a 109 winner of a hcap chase after in a time 13 ses behind ,or 52l.now this means we have a serious novice chaser here.i had to do the sectionals and hoped the pace was good in the hcap chase,but it wasn't.however in slower run race,they finish faster,even if inferior but escaria ten at around 4 out decided to lead ,so the pace increased over the handicappers.so if the handicapprs were going to slow,they wouldn't of fell behind at the end of the race but thats what happened,especially form 2 out.if it was a true run hcap ,then they would of finished slower at the end,which they did,so despite them going a slower pace compared to the beginners chase,the pace was decent for the class of race a 0-109.i had touse the 2m2f hcap chase as a guide as well,but that did have slow pace despite a shorter race and better rated handicappers in it.escaria ten as put up a top performance here and joins eklat de rire from last week as another top 3m novice chaser to join monkfish.monksish actually beat escaria ten by 15l lto in 5th.now its easy to assume this as paid a big compliment to monkfish and it as ,but i think he needed th run and the 2m5f trip was too short lto.he as now won 4 times hes gome 3m+ and lost every time at 2m to 2m5f.he's 16-1 for the 3m6f nh chase and thats looks good value atm.the ten up novice chase is probably his next target.i wouldn't rule out the rsa based on this peformance,but elliott is probably weary about monkfish as he beat him before.he as galvin for the nh chase as well but aloso pencilfulloflead and fury road id he goes back chasing for the rsa.on the same card gauloiuse went 2nd fav for the mares novice hurdle,but she didnt do a lot on the clock i feel.maybe thats enough to win a race like that ,but i'd like to see more from her next time.
i will list the ratings for kempton and leopardstown on boxing day morning.a few twists have happened recently like the ban on irish horses in the uk ,so monalee who i thought was a good bet in the king george ,misses it now which is a shame.he may run in the saville chase or wait for tramore in january.put the kettle on misses the desert orchid chase,but i didn't feel she would of won anyway.i do hope she runs against cps and notebook in ireland to give us a guide of how much difference there is between them.duffle coat misses the grade 1 juvenile hurdle at chepstow,so could run agaisnt elliotts other runners now.i do feel though elliotts other 2 more fanced horses for the triumph hurdle will beta him,but he had a good chance at chepstow.the ground as well is around gdsf at both courses so i hope it doesnt change much.
17/12/20
Eklat de rire did a impressive time fto over fences at punchestown in a beginners chase.in comparison to the shorter chase ,albeit a low class,they did it 12 secs quicker.there was talk about lepardstown over xmas in the 3m grade 1 novice chase or kauto star chase on boxing day as the owner his in england,but it may come too soon ,but he’s a 3m novice chaser to keep a eye on and I like is profile,a ptp win and 2 runs over hurdles and straight to novice chasing as he looks a a real 3m chaser.hes 33-1 for the rsa in a race were bar monkfish, its wide open so far.
You need to keep a eye on these maiden hurdles or beginners chases in ireland ,even mid week ones at the lesser courses and bohemian birch did the best on the clock on tramore’s card.that doesn’t mean the fastest race is going to turn out to be graded class, but looking at the sections as well,I think this mare as ran really well.conversion of the sections could indicated a 144 rating,the pace of the other race was slow so maybe final time was hurt so 144 looks doubtful but I think she’s above average.I suppose only mullins really knows how good she is and he will have a strong hand in the mares novice hurdle, but don’t forget he won the triumph last year with a mare.his was a 2m5f hurdle race ,but worth keeping a eye on the form of the race I feel.
I was annoyed chantry house wasn’t in the 3m novice chase and went for the 2m4f novice on Saturday instead.however it probably wouldn’t of made any difference given how he ran on Saturday,but also this race as surprised me.in my preview,I wasn’t impressed at the line up,especially when chantry house wasn’t declared but I cant knock the final time as it matched the Peterborough chase as joint fastest chase.the going officially changed for the peterborough chase,but that’s because they had it wrong to begin with ,so with 1 hurdle race and 1 chase race was out the way,they changed it on jockeys advice and I dare say race times.there was no rain so they underestimated how soft it was to begin with.now finally we have some life in the 3m novice chase division as I couldn’t have the likes of shan blue as fav for the kauto star and rsa and gold cup talk after that.there had to be something that can take this weak division I feel and happygolucky comes along and surprises me.when I saw the mighty don closing him down,I wasn’t expecting much.I’m going to reserve judgement atm and not get carried away.kim bailey says he was impressed and loved the track and distance and the ground was soft which didn’t stop him,maybe he feels he is better on a less testing surface.bit of a surprise he as a entry for the marsh chase and not the rsa chase,but that’s only possible entries so far.he got outpaced over 2m5f in a tactical race on good ground,so he’s all stamina to me the might don must love cheltenham and his recent form is one reason I dismissed this race before I saw the sections and final time.he however won a 3m hcap hurdle here on soft.for whatever reason he doesn’t run his best at the festival ,the coral cup was too short and had slowish pace for him to be effective,but he was 150 over hurdles when conditions wee right,he ran well like 7l 4th to paisley park in the long walk as ascot.this horse needs a stiff finish so even though he won at chepstow a few runs back,that level of form wasn’t no where near this here.a heavy ground rsa will bring him into I think ,but as said,he as shown poor form at festivals before.some horses just don’t like the experience with the big crowds.
Now with that race being better than it was ,I have to admit the peterborough chase might not be that god or mister fisher as not ran to his best despite winning.only time will tell I suppose.I’m using his time compared to medera mists over 1f shorter.the sections show that the peterborough chase had the fastest sections and so it should be.kalasnikov came into the reckoning given it was 2m4f on soft and left handed and I thought he would win it.however mister fisher found more .the race had a few horses like dolos who has proven he doesn’t stay 2m4f in the past but he ran well till his stamina gave way.fanion d’estruval I wasn’t sure about but he as ran fats over 2m in the past and came here strong but fell 3 out.that’s too early o to say if he would of stayed as dolos was also still going 3 out well enough.top notch needed the run but took his 2nd biggest beating and I did initially think silvi conti chase again at kempton in january,but I wonder if he’s showing signs of regression now as he’s been around for ages.the handicapper as put mister fisher up to 162.now this wont matter as henderson wouldn't of run him in a handicap now anyway after this despite having caviar gold cup entry and the ryanair is the target,but lets remember samcro is 3 points ,or 7.5l of min using there marsh chase and ryaniar chase times.mister fisher was 4.25l 4th.I think he’s not ran to 155 here at all,he’s won as his marsh chase 4th form was good enough to do so,it doesn’t mean he’s improved on that if the clock is anything to go by,maderia mist and happygoluckys times/sections do suggest he’s won because of the others really not being suited to the conditions and/or weren’t good enough as in the case of clondaw castle who was 2nd in the desert orchid chase in october and I rated the race at listed at best despite its grade 2 status.mister fisher is 20-1 for the ryanair which is fair enough I suppose and also I feel on better ground,he will run better.
Certain meetings can produce winners in handicaps that favours low weights more and/or hinders high weights more.I’ve noticed this in the past and I’m convinced its when the ground which is soft becomes tacky and hard work.trainers often say a good 2 to 3mm of rain will loosen it up and make it easier but when ou see a horse win from 5lb out the hcap,take notice as madera mist did.on the Friday,there were 5 handicaps and all were won by horse with these weights 10s7lb,10st0lbs(5ooh) 10st3lb(3 finishers all 11st or less and top weight pulled up) 10st11lsb x country and 10st12lbs.so suspecting this I should fo really not backed cepage on 11st10lb in the caviar gold cup.he pulled up and along with al dancer who also took a big beating under 3rd top weight and master tommytucker as well under top weight.this followed the 2m hcap chase as well were magic saint struggled under top weight in 4th.I still have faith in cepage as my ryanair ew outsider,although chatam street lad as come into the reckoning ,but he can go novice route so marsh chase and even rsa option.give his beating over midnight shadow and the final time,he as a chance I feel,although needs it testing but that’s possible these days.he’s gone to 151 so as handicap options in the meantime.the faller as well taking some out and hampering a few along with big weights struggling may give this race a cautious look ,but the winner as ran a decent enough time imo to suggest they may not of got to him if things panned out different. capage after all is better on soft and al dancer and master tommytuker also decent soft ground form.I feel if this was a wfa race ,the winner still would of won and also I think he could of won the peterborough chase on Friday.
In contrast,the 2m4f novice chase was one of the slowest finishes you will likely to see from a winner.over 22 secs fusile raffles took when chatam street lad took 17ish seconds.of the 3 chase races,a 4 runner 2m4f novice chase you would expect to be the slowest pace when compared to a 2m4f big field hcap chase and a 2m hcap chase as well,but this race was had the faster pace set by lieutenant rocco .at 2 out,he was 4m44 compared to 4m46 for the caviar gold cup.sky pirate despite running over 4f shorter,for the majority of the race was slightly behind the novices also until 2 out also but only 0.3 secs behind.lieutenant rocco jockey obviously want to try and test the stamina of fusil raffles and chantry house and it nearly worked.rated 137 and imo as well,he is some way off those 2 ,but he had them in trouble 2 out by going fast from the front and also damaging his own chances as he maybe has stamina issues behind 2m4f also.I think it was the right thing to do as of a more slower pace,fusil raffles would of beaten him by a bigger distance.he’s had a hard race henderson says and given how slow he finished in a battle to win,I can see how this as happened.I feel the tacky oft ground caused this more than the trip but can’t be sure.2m4f might not be a problem on gdsf or better but this was a serious stamina test and despite winning,he’s not ran anywhere near his 2m chase win 2 runs back on good ground.this makes me think even 2m on soft won’t suit him and maybe 2m on good he will find at least one too good like his stable mate shishkin and some of the irish.2m4f on good is what I fell he needs to win a marsh chase.chantry house needs another chance,maybe tacky ground to blame as henderson as always insisted he is a 3 miler in time.I did forget though he wasn’t that fluent and jumped slow lto and had to be niggled along 4 out as pic d’orhy was still going well when falling.he was pushed along at the 12th then wasn’t fluent after ,so he’s not inspiring me at all over fences so far and is one to be wary off.
I’ve mentioned song for someone a few times now as maybe a horse who could do well in the champion hurdle,so it was nice to see him win the international,but he didn’t win it well enough imo.for me,one of either sfs ,goshan and verdana blue needed to win this well to be considered a serious champion hurdle contender.verdana blues chances went when the rain came Thursday night and she may of got away wit it on gdsf.goshen ran poor for reasons we all know.sfs did win but only just.I had him somewhere between epatanta/saint roi/abacadabras and silver streak/ballyhandy/call me lord types and so he proved by a head win giving silver streak 2lb.he needed to win by at least5l imo.jockey did say he felt he wasn’t at his best due to the tacky ground but as the trainer said,he felt kempton didn’t suit him as I wanted him to go for the xmas hurdle.at least the dream is still alive but as the trainer say,2m4f might be better and aintree hurdle more realistic chance of winning.it was a good time,albeit 3 hurdles missing means 2 secs saved.this though also highlighted that 3yo hurdle winner adagio isn’t that great,we probably knew that on previous form and his life was made easier when duffle coat wasn’t declared in the end.make good also in the albert bartlett trial wasn’t that good time wise,the irish took advantage of testing ground and sent over testing ground winners.now I rated the french furze hurdle as a good race on the clock despite a close finish but ask a honeybee was 3rd by 8l in the slowest hurdle race.however that was on good ground at newcastle and just like getaround at carlise the next day in the pertemps,they found the going to testing.I still have faith in these pair on better ground.getaround as qualifed for the pertemps and on 135,will likely get in.however,3m looks a bit too far,its a pity it isn’t over 2m5f ,so coral cup more suitable for him.ask a honeybee looks liek 3m will be no problem,hence running in the albert bartlett trial and I wouldn’t assume he doesn’t stay just yet,he just needs better ground.
There a re any graded races that don’t deserve there graded status as I’ve already mentioned before.novice hurdles are the worst,there’s too many grade 2 novice hurdles that are poor races.juvenile hurdles as well and a few novice chases are poor despite being grade 2 status.doncaster stage the grade 2 summit 3yo hurdle and the grade 2 lightning novice chase.cheltenham stage a class 2 3yo hurdle and 3m class 2 novice chase.all this means is and especially for the 3yo hurdlers,they are entered in both and avoid each other.we then have a odds on fav in the grade 2 race at donny who wins easy by 11l.duffle coat was entered in both but didn’t run in either in the end.monmiral time was slightly the fastest, but even doing his sectionals,I can’t make him look any better than he is really on the clock so not a stand out really for the triumph hurdle based on this.the irish look to have a strong hand for the triumph so far although I feel the uk novice hurdlers are looking quite good.the summit had good history till 2014 ,but its not been that great since.
The lightning novice chase grade 2 is a poor race.I can understand why henderson maybe didn’t want to run chantry house here as he opted for 2m4f in the end.hurricane harvey faced 2 rivals but he’s hardly one of our best 3m novice chasers out there.ironically the mighty don was a non runner and ran 2nd at chelts on Friday.despite there being no stiff finish,it was testing ground and donny is a galloping track so he may of got away with it and won this if he ran to his chelts form.I’ve had to compare it to rocky treasures hcap chase win over the same trip and run 0.86s faster than the handicap.that’s 4 lengths really and rockys treasure last win came here,in 2018 in the grade 2 novice chase.he was rated 147 at the time and went to 149,but he’s failed to win in 3 hcap chases since he managed to finish as he’s pulled up a few times.it took for him to get to 138 to win,this highlights how much the handicapper got him wrong as a novice and I feel because he won a grade 2,he had to put him up more after that win.imagine if he went down in the weights for winning!.he’d gone back to 145 now so I expect him to struggle again.
Over in ireland captain guiness won well but its too early to say how good he is.I only had a low class 3m1f hcap chase to compare with which isn’t ideal and the 2nd horse home I’m not going to use a a guide also.the sections suggest a grade 1 performance whilst beating the 2nd horse home by 4.5l suggest he won’t win a graded chase ,so both criteria cant be trusted.I was annoyed I didn’t look at Saturday’s fairyhouse card before hand as sizing pottsie won the hcap chase by 6l easy at 7-2.this was because I’ve nominated felix desjy as my arkle contender at this stage based on the punchestown grade 2 he won.the time is 6.7 secs quicker than the beginners chase winner front view and only 9lb less weight.front view was however 1st to line only 4.5 secs behind ,but it was still a good performance b sizing pottise who is rated 157 now and I agree with that as I suggested 155 for this win using times.entoucas in 6l 2nd and carrying 11lb less and as form with enexcepted and blackbow over similar trips and going.this puts felix desjy ahead of those pair as I couldn’t get a handle of them just yet,but this race as helped me out lots.both felix desjy and andy dufresne are the top 2m novice chasers from ireland.
I’ll mention carlise again as sextant caught my eye as he was rated as high as 108 on the flat,something which is rare to see these days with 3yo hurdlers.he won ,but using conversions ,he started on a flat rating of 101 here .now so it works out to 141 over hurdles,he’s not ran to that level at all despite this win but maybe because he prefers better ground like his flat form suggests.66-1 for the supreme,he’s way of based on this.
The naas beginners chase saw lord royal,coke beach and longhouse poet all get beat espanito bello rated 131.the main 3 in the betting had better form ,but the got beat,well 2 got beat to far to suggest they ran to form and the other I had to look at.this was coko beach who was beaten 16.5l to envoi allen but 18l here.this obviously makes the winner interesting based on that horse but it was a case of the time didn’t match what the form book could suggest.longhouse poet as ran his best races in defeat on better ground to top horses but lost by the same horse even further on soft or heavy and I suspected before the race he would struggle and he did.he took a poor 3rd as lord royal failed to fire for whatever reason and weakened into 5th.I feel coko beach as returned to soon after his last run and maybe left handed hasn’t suited him.that’s not ideal to use that as excuses,it maybe the reason or it may not be,only time I suppose will tell.I had to use the 2m hcap chase as a guide.given it was only a 90 rated winner with a low weight,I had a 2.1 secs advantage from the 2m point.I’ve worked it out and also the difference in weight to to be no better than the 131 rating he had pre race anyway.so the other ran below form and also he was behind longhouse poet by 8.5l lto so the all ran below form strangely which is rare to see in these beginners chases.
Bypassed hurdles was causing havoc also at naas but delvino the mare I reckon did the best of the maiden hurdlers,possible high 130s for this win .unknown trainer which is nice to see and a joseph o’ brien and mullins horse in 2nd and 3rd as well.mares novice hurdle I expect she could be aimed at and would is 16-1.
So one to watch from this week happygolucky and eklat de rire in the 3m novice chase division and delvino in the mares novice hurdle division.chatam street lad I reckon is more than just a handicapper on soft or heavy at least despite this race falling apart a bit and the tacky ground.
To be wary of are fusil raffles especially on soft,chantry house is another I will be wary of as well.hurricane harvey I suspect wont have many people thinking rsa ,but he won a poor renewal of the lightning novice grade 2 chase again.monmiral may win on cheltenham trials day ,but on this performance,he wont touch 1 or 2 of the top irish 3yos hurdlers.also many poor efforts at cheltenham ,especially under big weights can be forgiven I think.cheltenhm stage 2m4f grade 3 hcap chases on new years day and trials day so I expect to see some of them run better there.
Looking at ascot (18/19 dec),the long walk sees paisley park and thyme hill take each other on again,this time level weights.as thyme hill is one of my antepost stayers hurdles bets,I want to see him win but it will be hard for him.what I don’t want to see is a 12l beating in 2nd for example,a close 2nd is ok ,a big beating suggests he ran poor for whatever reason ,but if he takes that beating by paisley park,then he won’t certainly be good enough for the stayers.there is at least 3 front runners in this race as well so hopefully no messing about like last time and a true test of stamina .
the grade 2 noel novice chase I think as been reduced from 2m5f to 2m3f at ascot this year,and pic d’orny is fav.he looks a poor jumper ,but he jumped well lto and just 1 mistake cost him.2 stumbles the time before.he is not hitting fences and jumping without fluency I don’t think.he was fast over hurdles and I think he would of beat chantry house if he stayed up.allart makes his chase debut,tough start for him but looks interesting.fiddlersontheroof is 2nd fav,but I’ve not been impressed with him at all.maybe a return to going right handed will help him.the kennel gate novice grade 2 hurdle as a good history,one of the few novice hurdles in the uk that deserves its grade 2 status really.sir valentine is 8-1 as I write this in the novice hcap chase.13l to saint roi is good hurdle form and 9l to fusil raffles on good ground looks good form and enough to take a class 3 race.he also was 1l to pic d’orny in the fast betfair hurdle.its just lto when beaten in a 3 horse race at odds on by 11l.a blunder and slow jump after didn’t help and the winner as won again of 140 and is now 147,so maybe not as bad as it looked.soft ground may be the issue most for him.
I don’t see the point in graduation races and this means caribean boy who isn’t a novice no more,gets the chance to take on basically novices again although there is a few that are experienced like itchy feet is well entered,around listed class he is.
The 3m hcap chase as some entries in it that are entered in the graduation chase as well like itchy feet .this would mean another step up in trip for him to see if it works.I feel he just isn’t as good as his grade 1 novice chase win suggests.the conditional sets a standard and kildisart who chased him home at the festival is entered ,but he also as a long walk entry as well quarenta ran a decent time lto and at 6-1,might be a decent bet
Buzz is fav for the 2m hcap hurdle and I will take him on i think after reviewing his win lto.I will be looking at the likes of botox has ,kid commando,master debonair and not so sleepy who for one reason or another,ran below form lto but they have form I feel from a past race that indicates at there current odds of 16-1 or so offer value.not so sleepy and kid commando are front runners and I can see a fast pace master debonair ran fats at this meeting last year and he’s 33-1.good ground and 2m3f after meant he ran below form.at big odds out of the 4 ,I like botox has and master debonair as the race should be run to suit the both at a track that suit them well with a stiff finish they need
My bets will be sir valentine 8-1,pic d’orny 5-2,quarenta 6-1 and botox has/master debonair both ew at 18-1 and 33-1.
6/12/20
Starting with fairyhouse which I didn’t get time to review in last weeks blog,I think it common knowledge by now by all the review shows and timeforms etc that zanahiya as done something special here.at a glance you can see its the fastest time but the sectionals are impressive as well.straight into favourite now after that and deservedly so.he either runs in a grade 2 at xmas or goes for the spring hurdle grade 1 at drf. that I thinks helps elliott keep him and quilixios apart.I think also it may be that he takes a lot out of him running so fast ,he didn’t need to do those final sections really as he had won,so spacing between runs helps to limited runs. xmas ,then drf then the triumph may not be ideal.I did think maybe youmdor was a nice early ante post type for the triumph but this fellow sets a high standard.there’s no point comparing to ballyadams race as a guide,the handicap was a better guide.using ratings and times etc and converting ,I think hes run to around a high 150s hcap rating.this horse could be the next our conor.last years triumph and last few years probably bar goshen have been average at best.this 3yo at least as set a very high standard. ballyadam won a crawl of a race.however I’m not convinced by him yet.he made up the lost time from 3 out to 2 out but just stagnated.he is a bumper horse from ptps so a slow run 2m hurdle wont suit him.with this is the supreme a ideal race?I wary of him along with ferny hollow as well as mentioned in m earlier blogs.I don’t know much about how cheveley park operate yet to see if they will run ferny hollow and ballyadam against each other at the festival or indeed in the build up. mullins as appreciate it as well,so as he trains ferny hollow,he may suggest he goes to the ballymore and keep appreciate it for the supreme,or vice versa.
Its disappointing when you have a odds on fav in a open grade 1.the moriana hurdle was a good race with a 3 way battle but the fighting fifth was a cake walk for epatante and honeysuckle was odds on in the hattons grace.she did enough but you have a horse who isn't 100% fit win one because the opposition is poor .tbf,2m4f over hurdles is a bit of a specialist distance.she won’t win a champion hurdle,3rd at best last year using darver star as a guide and also my own speed points and sections from the festival.the mares is the obvious race and aintree after.will she win another irish champion hurdle? Sharjah ran poor in it last year and mullins was keeping aramon ticking over for a run in the county.it backfired for mullins, but sharjah,saldier and saint roi he as to choose from and throw in concertista if he needs extra back up. abaadabras as well might be there,although I have a suspicion if either saint roi or abacadabras win the matheson over xmas,they might be rested till the champion hurdle.the pace was slow and it was a sprint finish but interestingly honeysuckle lost 0.3 from last to line compared to thee 3yo hurdle ,that’s why ronald pump seemed to close on her.she beat 3 milers ,and not the best 3 milers as well in a slow run - sprint finish 2m4f hurdle.the 2nd and 4th from the stayers hurdle did well to get those positions last year I think and if the likes of sire de berlais ,thyme hill and paisley park turn up and run to there best,ronald pump and bacadys will be left behind.
Matt chapmans tweets are funny and he jumped on the fact envoi allen was 3 secs behind the hcap chase winner of the same distance.however,the stopwatcher decides from when the tape goes up and when they decide to run and the tape to the first fence can be the cause misleading official times quite often as well.envoi allen was 1.2 secs quicker from the 1st fence to the line.envoi allen found himself 2.8 secs behind after a few fences ,but got it down to 1.6 secs by the time they bypassed those 3 fences.that saves 3.6 secs so when they got to the 10th,they were almost equal in time,but they decided to dawdle again and by 2 out were back to 2.5 secs down.its then when envoi allen quickened that he ended up 1.2 secs in front.the talk about future gold cup winner with this horse,but he has a lot of speed based on this.it wont happen, but if he turns up in the arkle ,it would be a brilliant race.he runs at punchestown in janaury next then the festival,he’s taking a similar route as last year really,he avoid xmas and drf so runs in between so goes there’s nice and fresh from what I assume will be a easy win at punchestown
Elliott seems keen not to over race his horses.the drf may of been the reason notebook ran below for last year according to de bromhead as he ran at xmas time as well.this meeting as recently appeared combining the 2 meetings a week either side of it into one.running at leopardstown over xmas and in the drf may just be a cause that puts them below par at the festival and something to consider.
There wasn’t anything to note from sandown on Friday.the grade 2 novice hurdle was a 3 runner crawl.this race as itv pointed out was good back in the day from 95 and decade later they said but its become one of those poor grade 2 novice hurdles we are a washed with these days.many don’t deserve there graded status.in my preview of the race,I wasn’t overly excited but it’s early days so it might be a decent contest but the race told us the winner was able to sprint best of a slow pace.bit of a much of a much ness the times at sandown were ,nothing stuck out on the clock.ground was heavy as well,forget that soft,gdsf in places they stated for the chase course.it rode faster than the hurdle course but it was still testing.
The novice hurdle at exeter as a decent history and I noticed a horse called give us a stig was in the race.he took a 20l beating by wilde about oscar a horse I have written about and I think he will be quite good.he ran 3rd at 18-1, but 16l of the front two,orbys legend and the brass man.this is one area I feel uk horses are decent at ,novice hurdlers.they inspire me more than the novice chasers do at this moment in time.maybe worth keeping a eye on these pair. I’ve got no standards for exeter and the other 2 hurdle races were low class, but there average seconds per furlong they achieved was quite good.
When I look at the betting for the kauto star chase on boxing day,it’s a bit depressing.is this the best we have fro the 3m novice chase division? the ballymore 4th the big breakaway and 6th shan blue are the 2 favs. these took 14l and 27l beatings.after that what do we have for the rsa and even gold cup next year?where are the champs and santinis? When I saw the henderson horse for the berkshire novice chase caribean boy,he is good but I don’t think he’s future grade 1 chases at all and he’s not a novice as well no more.so at exeter on Friday I saw the big breakaway entered but the form of his cheltenham win wasn’t working out that well with the 10l 2nd losing at haydock 2 days earlier.the drop back in trip as well didn’t help and bold plan was 136 over hurdles ,he was 144 and gave him 8lb,so nothing on official ratings on there hurdles form.it was a slow run race so this didn’t help him as well but he’s nothing special imo. he could win the kauto star chase because the opposition isn’t great.long term I cant see how he can beat monkish in the rsa plus others from ireland by then.fury road might go chasing still as he was meant to ,but elliott hinted gigginstown have lots of good novice chasers ,so that’s why fury road stays hurdling ,and I’m assuming at 2m4f+ trips he meant that we haven’t seen out yet.
the many clouds chase i thought would be like the betfair chase,native river goes of in front and santini chases him but because of his fitness fto doesn’t get past him and doubtful stayer frodon as enough in the home straight as it’s too testing for him.in a way I got frodon right as he failed to fire and it wasn’t due to the trip.native river did go off in front but that’s were my predictions ended.lake view lad had other ideas and santini passed him as well.9 fences missing though spoilt the race.I don’t mind fences missing in the back straight but in the run-in it’s more important as this is were horses are asked for there maximum effort and there getting tired as well so jumping takes more energy and mistakes often happen under pressure.that said I have native river may be on the regress.he goes well fresh,although as horses get older ,they often are harder to get fit fto.a little warning sign came last year in the denman chase as he won by 2.75l rated 168,he beat a 149 horse with 3lb extra so 15lb advantage on bha ratings.if you look at santini as well fto last year,he just about beat a 144 horse despite 19lb bha rated higher,less the 6lbs extra weight ,so 13lsb superior on bha ratings.no this happened here but this time lake view lad was a higher rated horse on 154 and it was enough to catch them out .so they managed to get a away with not being at there best because they faced 144 and 149 rivals ,but they couldn’t beat a 154 horse,so something to bear in mind in these types of races in future if you suspect the main horse won’t be ready like fto and not fully fit or have regresses and not as good as they once was.the race itself was a slow pace,I was hoping native river would go faster and after he took over the lead from frodon ,it looked like he did but he didn’t .missing fences saves 1.2 secs of time ,so each 3 sections they missed would be 3.6 secs each time,so when comparing sectionals to the 2m4f chase,which did have a good pace I admit,they were around 1 seconds down,but when they bypassed the fences,they should of found themselves in front on the sections ,but they actually fell behind.so from 1 secs behind,they got to 1.6 secs behind and in the home straight they bypassed them for the last time and ended up 3.8 secs behind at the line .I’m not a fan of the many clouds chase,it was introduced in 2011 as a listed race and then became a grade 2 in 2018.if this race wasn’t here,these horses would have to run in the hennessy a week before,or wait for the 3m open hcap chase at ascot in 2 weeks or king george/savilles chase.these are grade 1 horses,albeit native river not so these days.
Regarding the hurdle races at aintree,when I did the speed points there was only 2 points difference between the 3 races with the novice hurdle coming out just best.however when I looked at straw fan jacks time compared to talking about you it was just 0.9 faster.when I watched the race ,no one wanted to go on and they crawled to the first.from 1st hurdle to the line the difference is 3.8 secs.this is what frustrates me about how they time jump races ,the run to the first obstacle is often the cause of why 1st obstacle to line times different so much.this then as a effect on topspeed ratings in the racing post given.when there at least 2 races over the same trip,it easy to compare the sections ,but if all 3 hurdle or chase races are over different trip,then its hard to judge if the races time suffered as a result of a slow run to the first as the get organised.you can spot obvious slow starts like straw fan jacks race but if no other race was over that same trip that day,it would have been hard to judge how many seconds the slow run to the 1st hurdle cost them in time.I must say though straw fan jack won by 30l and is one to keep a eye on.on his last run,he was 2nd in the slowest hurdle race of the day at ascot,very slow it was.this had to be down to pace then ability and the horse who beat him was out at sandown fifty ball and he hosed up as well.he even had to jump 4 more hurdles than talking about you as well so that’s 2.8 secs plus the 3.8 difference so a whopping 6.6 secs faster,or 27l. this is a above average horse.I am surprised though this is far better anything he done before and I suspect he needs it testing to show his best form.
Sandown had for 2m hurdles and two 2m chases which makes life easy for sectional comparisons.I’ll start with hurdle races.I hate it when horses win with low eights in a fast time or the fastest time as benson did.I like to see at least 11 stone carried.so benson is officially the fastest of the 4 races,it was the highest class of race so fair enough I suppose mister coffey lto was 1 point of the fastest race and I thought he set a decent standard.he took a 9l beating however caring 11lb more so was the moral winner on adjusted weight ratings.it’s a bit lie cloth cap in the hennessy of 10st,put 11stone on his back and he would of been dragged back to a close finish with the 2nd and 3rd and 2 secs or more would of come of his final time.benson ran 4.5 secs quicker than fifty ball but carried nearly a stone less but fifty ball was eased down as well so when I saw the sections of how slow they went compared to benson early on,that means he will finish faster and he did from 3 out but not form last to the line as he won easy and jockey stopped riding 100 yards out the line,so I reckon he could of gone 2 secs quicker and matched bensons final section of asked.all of a sudden that 4.5 secs is reduced to 2.5 secs then 13lbs in weight extra means he as matched benson who is 7lb rated higher before they ran today
The henry viii chase was run 0.2 faster than the tingle creek.now before we get too excited by allmankind you will often find a lot of henry viii chases run faster than the tingle creek by just glancing at the racing post times,best example is 2018 when dynamite dollars was 3.9 secs faster than altior.now I suspect the start had a influence and also they had faster sections than the tingle creek.allmankind gets a lower topspeed figure by 10 points than politologue because he carried less weight as well 11lbs and 4yo allowance factored in.timing from the 1st fence to the last though makes allmankind 1.2 secs faster,so that's nearly 5 lengths.now last year defi de seiul was 0.7 faster and carried 5lbs more .now I think dds and politologue have the same ability,there just shy of grade 1 class over 2m. this sounds strange as they have won a few grade 1 2m chases between them,but altior is out the way and cps from ireland made things easier.I was confident dds wouldn’t win the champion chase based on his times ,although he probably ran below form as well. ive kept 5 years of speed points comparing each of the 4 days racing at the festival and the champion chase is always top rated over the rsa,which is no surprise really,it should be.however in 2020 the rsa was faster.this is due to a strong rsa I believe and also a below standard champion chase. espirite de large last year was the henry viii winner so and is average really,he and the close 2nd as showed poor form since not up to graded level .allmankind is at least 8 lengths faster than last ears winner.having backed him for the triumph,I was disappointed in him as it was a poor triumph in the end.he then failed to win at cheltenham so they went chasing and he is a better chaser.if shishkin converts his supreme form to fences,then he probably set the standard but hes not far behind I reckon based on this.the only thing is he may dislike cheltenham,he as not run great there last twice now ,albeit over hurdles but given his ability over fences,he should of won the triumph once goshen unseated.he will go to warwick next so unlikely to met shishkin who I will assume goes to wayward lad at kempton next.I was hoping hitman would win as wasn’t convinced by allmankind beforehand.he as potential to improve past allmankind given it was only his 2nd uk run and not run in top races before.lest not forget,he too as finished in front of politoogue as well on the sections. nicholls is talking about the Scilly isle chase,which if he stays 2m4f fair enough,but he’s not done a lot wrong here over 2m.I did also work out fusil raffles as maybe 17 lengths over gumball who fell at cheltenham in which eldorado allen won.he took a 14.75l beating here and fusil raffles was entered at the 5 day stage,ground probably too soft anyway to produce his best.jacob as said maybe 2m4f is his better trip than 2m.
My antepost choice for the champion chase, greaneteen was 2nd but after exeter,I knew he would find it hard to bridge the gap to grade 1 chases. 7l beating suggests he wont get within at least 10l of the champion chase winner if the main horses turn up this time.nothing changed in the antepost market for the champion chase after this and rightly so
At navan we saw the big getaway lose on his chase debut.conflated isn’t that good so this was a poor effort.he as took 3 decent beatings so far and his time wasn’t good in the end and he was ridden out which I thought was strange as he was well clear after the last.using a direct time and weight conversion,he would appear to run 156 at least and rpr is 150.now I’m suspicious when a rpr rating jumps that high.he’s been hovering around 135 over his chase runs so far and only just in 140s over hurdles.this is were rpr’s go wrong I feel,they have took his 17l win as a improved effort.the reason the hcap time was 1.9 slower from a 120 horse is down to pace,they ran that slow early on they didn’t produce a final time better than they should off.however it was with the help of the andy dufresne sections that also meant the pace in conflated’s race wasn’t that good,so he should if finished better than he did,remember I found it strange he was ridden out for a 17l win when clear from 2 out and especially the last fence? Andy dufresne race was run at a better pace and he simply got to 6.3 secs faster at 5 out.now conflated started to get quicker going down to 5.2 secs 3 out but it ended.if he’s genuine grade 1 horse he would of carried on to cut the deficit down but he got slower,or should I say andy dufresne got faster again as conflated was still going faster than the handicappers. andy dufrense went back to 8.2 secs quicker in the end.I will take into account 3f less and 2 less fences to jump,but this is a massive performance by him.strangely enough, embittered i thought could cause a upset and a 3l beating when pushing the winner to a ll out effort isn’t far off.he was 3rd in the fast county hurdle to saint roi,a red hot race that as worked out well form wise.he was 2nd to easy work on his chase debut who was ballymore 2nd to envoi allen
This was a serious performance by andy dufresne and even embittered.embittered is gigginstown owned and they have felix desjy as well in the novice 2m chase division that I rate.andy defresne was kept from the festival to go chasing.I find it weird though what elliott said after,he may go for the fairyhouse grade 1.well unless they have made another grade 1 there,he’s talking about the rynair chase in april there.now he surely will run in between,not over xmas despite 3 entries at 2m1f,2m3.5f and 3m.he as the arkle,marsh and rsa as well at the festival.I think he will run at drf either 2m1f grade 1 novice chase or the 2m5f grade 1 novice chase which is more likely.firstly I think he as lots of speed and if kept to 2m chases,he will avoid envoi allen,although different owners,so not a issue.envoi allen runs in janaury next anyway so they won’t meet before the festival.but also he missed the festival last year and easter Sunday this ear is on the 4th april.the marsh chase is 18th march so gives him only 17 days rest.the arkle only gives him 19 days as well.is it possible elliott isn’t thinking the festival with him?being jp mac horse,ou would think he will go there,but little signs he may not turn up I think.if he runs at drf which I expect him too ,the the festival and fairyhouse together is a lot of racing to take in 8 weeks at top level.he seems to be taking a more patient route with him,he’s got him out in october and not gone for a grade 1 next and took in a grade 3 at navan instead .if he waited for xmas ,he wouldn’t of faced envoi allen anyway.he might not be in his first grade 1 till febuary in all likeliness the way I see it and the festival I ain’t certain he will go for.
The peterborough chase was abandoned and the john durkan nearly,I did lots of ground work on both races on at least one was on but it may as well not be. couldn’t see much but my pre race ratings were like this based on there festival form
Min 20 ryanair win
Alloha 19 rsa 3rd
Samcro 17 marsh win (non runner)
Melon 17 marsh 2nd
Chris dream 14 18l gold cup rating
Tornado flyer 13 marsh 5th
Battloverdoyen 12 rsa 4th
So 2.5l in this race is worth 1 point so I was glad to see min beat melon by 7.5l or 3 points as suggested.tornado flyer got closer than he should but never underestimate horses that are race fit.min won for the 6th season on the trot fto as well. battloeoverdoyen should of been beaten 20l,well 22l and chris’s dream 15l but 22l here.he was race fit but maybe the trip too short.he as took 20+ length beatings in all 4 grade 1 races he’s ran in(or pulled up) .I didn’t include the down royal grade 1 as that is a joke of a grade 1 race,it shouldn’t be a grade 1 as its too early in the season.he was 146,the won a hcap easy and a grade 2 so went to 160 and 165.totally overrated by the handicapper.’forced into top races now and isn’t good enough.he was 164 in that and couldn’t beat the storyteller rated 158.disappointed in alloha but he made a mistake 4 out and lost his place and eased.he can jump left as well but I think this is correct trip.if mullins is to keep min,melon and alloah apart,he will need to consider the ascot chase in feburary but there was a hint melon might go up in trip.there’s the melling chase as well as the ryanair but alloha might need to be kept left handed. samcro was a non runner but he and melon have similar form,so life ma be difficult for the marsh chase runners this season.
I was looking forward to see how chosen mate would fair against cps but he was a non runner due to a stone bruise.I don’t expect the grand annual form to make a influence into grade 1s as we saw with greaneteen yesterday.the final time puts cps just 0.7 in front of the mares novice chase winner.however it was 1.5 from 1st to last.also 2 out as he led,he was 3 secs in front and 2.2 at the last and eased once the jockey had realised the other 2 had fell.he could of maintained 3 secs if asked and carried 15lb more.cashback fell again ,he wasn’t fluent at the 4th and fell heavily at the last.that’s 3 falls now and what mullins does with him I don’t know.
So andy dufresne the star for me this weekend on top of zanahiya from last weekend.allmankind and hitman I was impressed with more than I thought I would be and straw fan jacks I liked the look of. orbys legend and the brass man also 2 novices i like.
Next weekend is cheltenham and song for someone might run.the trainer as said he thinks kempton doesn’t suit him.I quite like him and he might be a bit of a surprise package in the champion hurdle.I’d of liked him to go to kempton to take on epatante but I suppose this may be easier plus he hasn’t run at cheltenham before as well.cepage is entered in the caviar gold cup,I think he could be a live outsider for the ryaniar chase.there’s always one handicapper from these type of races that do well chantry house is entered in the 3m novice chase,the 3m novice chase area needs something to spice it up from what I’ve saw so far.the 2m novice chase division looks stronger at the moment black corton if he takes is entry in the 3m2f hap chase will force many to run out of the handicap and hopefully taunton stages the peterborough chase on Thursday fusil raffles may appear in the 2m4f novice chase if the going isn’t too testing
29/11/20
My antepost selections from first blog on the 9th may continue to go well and minella indo as predicted went to joint 2nd fav after his navan win.it was a slow run race and he easily brushed off his non trying rivals.unfortunately I can’t rate blackbow using the unreliable rp standards and sections comparison to minella indo. however using some form lines ,maybe unexcepted is one to keep a eye on for 2m novice chases and as a xmas time grade 1 entry in ireland. appreciate it won his maiden hurdle at cork debut easy but I’m not convinced by the champion bumper form.he and ferny hollow have won,but the others just in behind haven’t set that high standard imo .appreciate it's time was slow but because of the pace .Ganapathi was the fastest winner and as a irish grade 1 entry over xmas.he might be one to keep a eye on and ferny hollow and appreciate it are entered as well from the mullins yard,all different owners as well.
At kempton shishkin won easy and went to7-4f for the arkle. I will trust top speeds big figure for him as I do think kempton standards are reliable and make most sense out of the big tracks.there’s no value though with him and I will try to find alternatives and felix desjy is one I’ve already mentioned and unexcepted I think could be quite good.the mares listed hurdle saw a lowly rated horse beat the 151 rated favourite.this happens quite often in mares listed races,flat and jumps as the trainer is after valuable black type.I had a suspicion the 3m trip wouldn’t suit indefatigable and so it proved and the pace wasn’t as strong as the class 4 hurdle run later and they only got faster 3 from home,so good ground ,easy track ,easy opposition and not a great pace was still too much for her to cope with
I was looking forwards to newbury ,especially the long distance hurdle and was glad to see thyme hill win.he was my ante post selection along with sire de berlais. mcfabulous as well was a hose I was interested in as I rated his chepstow win highly and also honest vic to see what he could do.unfortunately the pace was poor.no one wanted to lead and honest vic at a crawl,he needs to be held up in a fast run race to see the best out of him.the slow run coral cup didn’t suit him as well.once the pace lifted after 1m2f,it became a proper race but it probably rode more like a 2m4f race really. mcfabulous didn’t seem to stay or simply isn’t good enough,although nicholls was pleased with the run.its hard to suggest a more true run race over 3m will suit him given this rode more like a 2m4f race which he is used to.to be honest,although thyme hill won,1.5l and giving 3lbs means it would be closer than I thought.I marginally prefer sire de berlais over him at this stage.I just want to see a strong run 3m hurdle to get a better judgement on him.fury road as won a 2m5f hurdle in ireland,but it was run at a crawl set by him.I found it interesting that gordon elliott stated he kept him over hurdles because of the weak staying division and that gigginstown have lots of good novice chaser.firstly I agree the stayer hurdle division is weak,or was weak until sire de berlais and thyme hill won this season.lisnagaer oscar is not a great horse,as he’s showing this season and ronald pump as well is struggling.I’m intrigued to who elliott was thinking off when he says gigginstown had lots of good novice chasers. felix desjy is one,but he’s a 2m chaser,so where are these 2m4f - 3m chasers.?he may not necessarily train them and it may be gigginstown’s idea to keep fury road hurdling to give them a stayers hurdle contender.
The berkshire novice chase is one of the best graded novice chases in the run up to cheltenham. many graded novice chases and novice hurdles don’t deserve there graded status.many win a weak one and never win a graded race again.this race though is one of a few that deserves it status ,but in my preview,I was disappointed with the 3 runner field,especially as henderson targets this race with his better horses and couldn’t help feel we may have a weak race .fiddlersontheroof beating by if the cap fits doesn’t look that great form. henderson wanted to run him on Saturday in the 3m novice chase I presume but daryl jacob was at newcastle so he had to come here.as he’s won a novice chase in feburary,this was his last chance to run in novice company so he’s in open company next and surely will be 150ish now.the time was nothing special to suggest he’s going to go to the top .the pace of the race was better than the other 2m4f chase,but not as good as the fast run 2m chase.he as run to a similar level as ellusive belle on the clock and she is a 135 horse.so I feel caribean boy off 150ish will struggle of that mark.
So I was disappointed with the berkshire novice chase line up and the final result as well I’m not thinking we have top horses coming from it this year.the long distance hurdle as well was not truly run,although the right horses I feel did finish 1-2-3
Newbury on Saturday saw cloth cap win the hennessy by 10l from the front.this is now the 2nd big chase handicap of the season that as had a front running winner after the paddy power.a new course record may look good,but I feel this race,and I felt it beforehand was not going to provide a future grade 1 horse like bobs worth or imperial commander who won the hennessy and paddy power years ago.I hate it when low weights win like this.the time was the fastest and 8 points clear of next destination as well,which is a good sign.however,I like to see horse win with at least 11 stone on there back and if we assume he had 11 stone,he wouldn't of won by 10l,maybe still won but only just.this would mean a time 2 secs slower at least and the difference now goes from 8 points to 5 points.cloth cap was well treated off 136,down 2lb as well from lto. he’s won 3 from 4 on good ground when seasonal debut out the way,the only loss over fences came in a close 3rd in the scottish national.as a result of soft ground runs and needing his seasonal debut,his rating never got to the level he should be ,he’s around a high 140 horse I reckon.when he was winning or running well on good ground,his rating was going up every time and it only stopped rising due to soft ground and a seasonal debut run lto.to me this race needs to be rated around the conditional in 3rd,who won the ultima chase.this means we don’t have a future gold cup horse in this as vinndication was in it off top weight but unseated 5 out out when going well.I feel if he stayed up,he may not of won,but get placed seeing how the conditional was in 3rd.he was my gold cup ew hope ,but I had a feeling after the charlie hall and now this,that its going to be a big task getting a top 4 in that unless the race falls apart somehow.next destination’s win as well I wasn’t impressed with on the clock.when I previewed it,I wasn’t getting a feeling it would be a good chase with future potential. kalooki jumped left in front and he won well lto and had a form boost by the 2nd .he had beat the runner up as well,albeit he unseated but wouldn’t of won anyway when they met lto. due to his mistakes and stumble,he was behind him in 3rd.I would try and exploit his lower hurdle mark now back in a handicap hurdle for kalooki as he as jumping problems next destination was a ex irish horse who nicholls as acquired and finally got a winner form one off them.they have looked to of needed there first run under nicholls.he was good back in the day,but I suspect he wont reach those heights again.he benefited from kalooki’s poor jumping and didn’t bat the runner up far enough or clock a decent time in winning,so the signs aren’t good for him for races like the rsa .he dos have a stayers hurdle entry as well.I suspect maybe the kauto star chase he goes for next,he could win that as it can be a hit and miss race that,some ears can be poor years.looking at the betting for that this year,I’m not impressed with the potential line up so far bar the big breakaway the 2nd fav onwards I feel are not top chasers in the making.
There wasn’t much between the 3 hurdle winners on the clock but it was nice to see flash the steel win as he came 2nd in a fast chepstow hurdle and fell last week at haydock. I did suggest mrs hyde could go unbeaten in mares novice listed hurdles in the lead up to the festival.she came 3rd by 4l,giving 5lb in a newbury mares hurdle..the good ground didn’t test her enough and despite a good ground win at kempton,I think she happier on soft.they made her fav in the end as politesse drifted from 15-8 to 11-4 .queensbrook big beating at fairyhouse earlier in the day may of been a reason she drifted as her irish form looked poor. floressa made all at a slow pace and she quickened well,causing some of her rivals to look outpaced like botox has I feel suffered as a result.I don’t rate the 4yo hurdles that highly bar goshen,or should I say the triumph runners.he missed the triumph but I feel he would of won it if he had raced ,I mean goshen still falling in it and he would have been in front of burning ambition.thyme white was cruising but he unseated.he was a fast winner at chepstow and at 8-1 I went for it and despite being a 4yo,I think he and botox has are the better 2 of a poor 4yo hurdling bunch,especially the irish 4yo’s. he was running free due to the slow pace as was the fav maries rock who was unable to quicken and got hampered.
At newcastle epatante won well.incident packed race early on but silver streak wouldn’t of beaten here anyway good placing by alan king again to get 2nd by sceau royal rp has adjusted his standards and they were wrong I agree.however this has means getaround as earned a slightly higher top speed figure than epatante now she could of won by double if she wanted too,she only led last half furlong and quickened away.the 2m6f standard is too lenient now so I’ve adjusted it a bit.however this was still a good french furze hurdle,its a 2m6f class 2 race. getaround I did note in my preview I had his recent 4th to mcfabulous as good from .however I have trouble with novice hurdlers,I don’t win with them like I do other races as limited form and slow run races often.so I end up backing mrs hyde at 5-2 and not this one at 10-1! ask a honeybee was a fast finishing 2nd and I think this race will be a informative race for future novice hurdles .ballymore or albert bartlett for the runner up but getaround had recently lost over 2m7f on soft.he ran fast over 2m3.5f so this looked his limit 2m6f .the winner is rated 135 but on time figures I think they are in the mid 140s the front 2.as a crude guide using a 122 horse that came 3rd in the maiden hurdle,epatante as ran to 158 but she could of got 163 if the jockey wanted to.
There was nothing to note form the rehearsal chase,a one good race when run at chepstow,but sadly no bearing on the gold cup at all these days yorkhill sprang a shock,a one good horse when trained by mullins.I only mention it as the butcher said was in it.he recently came 20l 3rd to the big breakaway stumbled 2 out and I reckon he would of come 2nd but for that stumble.he’s got beaten 14l here.it just may be a little warning to the big breakaway form at cheltenham
At fairyhouse,some big names were out and they didn’t disappoint in winning.on the Saturday monkfish made his chase debut with a easy win as expected.time was nothing special due to slow pace.there were 2 other chases to compare it with,one over 2m5f like his and a 2m chase.the 2m5f handicap chase was faster run than the beginners chase getting to around 3 ses in front by 5 out,but then the beginners chase started to get faster as monkfish bled 4 out and the increase in pace was there to see and by the last got in front and then form the last went to 1.6 sec in front.however,that handicap wasn’t strongly run either as the 2m chase had faster sections,so monkfish found himself over 7 secs behind at the biggest gap bit 2.8 in the end.when monkfish took over 4 out he really did finish fast .I know a slow early pace means horses have lots of energy left at the end but he really did show some speed 4 out 1m16.5 he took 1m20.5 for the handicap winner and the 2m chase winner took 1m20.3. he jumped left which may be a concern but leopardstown and cheltenham left handed anyway.I wonder if mullins is temped by the marsh chase,he taking on envoi allen would be fascinating .he does have that 2m3.5f chase entry at limerick but he will probably go the 3m chase route at leopardstown.
Consertista won easy but I was interested in queensbrook the champion bumper 3rd.she lost a recent grade 3 and the time of the race was poor.I do doubt how good the champion bumper form is and as I say ferny hollow his one I feel to take on.she took a 16l beating here,it could of been well into the 20+ lengths zone as well.I want to see her take on honeysuckle in the mares hurdle but try the mathesons hurdle over 2m at xmas as well.
so the french furze hurdle at newcastle as caught my eye from a time perspective. epatante showed off her well being and the hennessy was won by a low weighted front runner like the paddy power,is this a new trend emerging in these big handicap chases?the hennessy used to have lightly weighted winners ,then big weights were winning of gold cup or near gold cup class.it was disappointing santini wasn't in it or champ as well.the many clouds chase at aintree is grade 2 ,was listed and isn't that old of a race.i would scrap it personally as its just another small field chase with a odds on fav normally and attracts horses from other races.the graded novice chases at newbury as well i wasn't impressed with either so looking good for ireland again in the novice chases at the festival
I will review Sunday at fairyhouse next week as need a bit of time to look at the sections as well and the tingle creek meeting to look at as well. greenetean is 2nd fav for the tingle creek,but although he is my ante post selection ew for the champion chase,I wasn’t overly impressed with his exeter win and I’m doubting how good the grand annual chase form is. first flow is 40-1 for the tingle creek and I hope he runs as he ran fast at ascot recently.looking at the line up,he might sneak a place at big odds.I do hope also the grade 1 novice chase as a decent line up,no entries yet.maybe allmankind will run ,but the irish should take advantage of this race as I think the uk novice chasers are weaker bar shishkin.the john durkan chase in ireland is next Sunday as well so interesting to see what mullin runs,will he run alloha ,as I think 2m4f is the best trip for him.min and melon as well and samcro could line up. a plus tard isn’t entered I see ,so looks like leopardstown 2m1f chase over xmas will be his next target which I think he needs another chance at that trip
21/11/20
i'll review punchestown on the saturday first as i didn't get a chance to last week. asterion forloge won the beginner chase and was way faster than the hcap chase was over the same trip.the hcap had a clear leader that the pack ignored but asterion forlonge disputed the lead and set a fats pace in his race so they ended up getting faster at each fence compared to the hcap. its amazing to think a 17 runner hcap with a clear leader somehow isn't that fats run and goes to show how hard it is to judge pace from watching and surely jockeys have the same problem as well.beating a 137 winner by 12 secs or so means a arkle type rating if taken literally.luckily the 2m grade 2 novice chase won by felix desjy was on the same card.he was 8l quicker over the same 12 fences as asterion forlonge .albeit i have to take into account the fact asterion forlonge ran 3f further and af did close the gap from 2 secs to 02 b 5 out,but felix desjy then got quicker again to increase it back to 2 seconds,or 8 lengths.there was a lot to like about felix desjys performance in this .this 5 to 4 out pace increase also saw darver star get shaken up as he couldn't cope very well with the pace getting faster.he may not of ran below form but up just come against a really smart horse.hes 16-1 for the arkle and he' ran well in the bumper and supreme at the festival before.it looks like fences is what he as needed all along.it's hard to get exciting about asterion forlonge for the festival given he jump right handed.
at thurles in the mid week,saw presenting percy,kemboy and monalee plus one other who was always at the rear take part.this was a fascinating race as we had 3 horse who had won 5 grade 1s between them but only kemboy outside novice company.I like the way the commentator said we have a mini gold cup going on here and also the sporting life review stated It was “Monalee who cut out the early running at a solid, if not ridiculous, tempo with market leader Kemboy happy to track him as Presenting Percy settled on the inside back in third.”
Tbf to the irish commentator ,he wouldn’t know the time of the race at the time but a after race review by the sportinglife ,there was no excuse really as the official time of the beginners chase was 5m57.70 and pp clocked 6m3.30 ,some 4.6 secs slower.it goes to show its hard to judge how good a pace is with the naked eye but looking at the sections,i can see upto 2 out they got 6.6 secs behind after initially starting 2.7 behind and they gradually got behind due to the not so good pace.it basically became a 2 fence sprint finish and as you can see presenting percy blasted home and got it it down to 1.7 secs in the end.
Now 1st fence to the line is 1.7 secs but from the tape its 4.6 secs.its around 1 furlong or so from the start to the firs fence and this is often were we get discrepancy in time differences .this can be due to many things like some races might be in full stride as the clock is started and in another race they are half stride or simply its hard to tell where the tape is and the clock watcher kind of guesses.unless you have a really long run to the first fence or hurdle,timing from the first fence or hurdle is often better.the racing post topspeed figure of presenting percy will be much lower than it should be,albeit it is lower than the beginners chase regardless but not that quite big difference.
I didn’t watch eurobot live so I just saw he clocked 4.6 second faster time and a easy 19l winner and the runner up was rated 137,so that gives him 156 in theory if the runner up as ran to 137.now I’m thinking we may have a rsa winner here until I look at his form and the runner up form and eventually watch the race. eurobot won eased down but the faller and fav lord royal was going better and id say probably would of won would of won. choungaya 137 in 19l 2nd I will question if he’s worth that really despite rpr137 matching his 137 offial rating,he’s been rprs recently at mid 120s so I think that’s more likely. eurobot himself seems to of had a few issue give his 2 periods of extended time of.he was beaten 13l in a hurdle race to alloha so that’s decent enough.3rd on only chase run but was after a break.
I thought monalee was initially a good bet based on trainer comments about how they gave him a good rest from xmas to the gold cup,so goes well fresh.but there is two types of freshness,first time out fresh,normally beginning of a season and fresh (around 6 weeks rest or more) from your last race during the season.he has shown he needed his seasonal debut last year before running 2 good races after when spaced out well.he as won fto twice but in his novice seasons,last season and this one against graded horses he’s lost fto.give de bromheads comments about the king george being the target you can tell he was going to need this.I feel now he should try 2m4/5f top chase given after a rest but I can see the appeal of 3m at kempton.after kempton,rest him again for the ryanair .I’ve highlighted in my first blog how de bromhead will have to make tough decisions on how he can keep his stars apart.with monalee ,he’s got the same owner as minella indo and he’s my idea of a gold cup winner ,so owner may feel as well monalee goes to ryanair. I wouldn't rule him out of the king george,de bromhead is avoiding ireland as it hasn’t worked last 2 yeas over xmas,but leopardstown is a more testing track.
You should never underestimate a recent run and out of the 3 horses,its kemboy as fav as well I felt wouldn’t win.presenting percy rsa win I felt was not as good as recent winners have I’ve kept speed points form last 5 festivals and done comparisons.its hard to judge it against the champion chase but 2019 rsa was closer to the champion chase than 2018 version was and we saw santini nearly win the gold cup,we have saw presenting percy struggle ,but using delta work who was 3rd in the 2019 rsa ,he hasn’t beat him. monalee was 7l in 2nd as well,but this to me just shows he lack stamina.the gold cup was not a good pace and as he was rested well,he ran as close as he could,but of a solid pace good cup,I reckon he will take a near double length beating even if rested well.lets not forget he as beat the gold cup winner over 2m5f. monalee is 25-1 with bet365 as well for the king george, as low as 12s elsewhere so to me he will be primed for that now this is out the way.he’s drifted to 16-1 for the ryanair as well kemboy is the fastest based on his 18/19 form but did nothing last season and doesn’t look festival material at all but more aintree. he was keen fto in this and by the slow pace as well.mistakes though again and out of the 3 horse here,he’s one I’d be war of the most they way he is.he seems to need better ground which will make life difficult and also maybe flatter tracks.realistically leopardstown over xmas and irish gold cup if the ground is decent are his best chances
ascot on friday saw 2 impressive winners of the 2m hurdles.the introductory hurdle was 0.41 quicker but 0.8 f out time form the first hurdle to the finish.the pace was similar between the 2 races but the leader in the hcap weakened 2 out,this is where the hcap got 1 second slower as buzz was just waiting to pounce b his jockey and he closed the gap from 1 sec to 0.8 in the end.buzz was 3rd in the ffos las welsh hurdle and that form looks good with the winner ,2nd and 4th all winning (the 2nd was the moral winner of the greatwood hurdle under a big weight) and now the 3rd buzz.however we all now the likes of sceau royal/ballhandy are grade 2 at best and are around double lengths of champion hurdlers.the into hurdle is for horses who haven't won more than one hurdle and are more lightly raced.i like the look of this race metier got away quickly for a 5.5l win .he had won a hurdle lto easy and ran a bit on the flat.he beat a bumper 3rd lto at october cheltenham meeting in 2nd and a ex french once raced hurdler in 3rd making his seasonal debut so tile tapper and gyspy de choisle are worth watching out for.
ascot on saturday was interesting as we saw a new ryaniar fav in imperial aura after his grade 2 win.all he's don is a win 2 races whilst the other 2m4f types ain't been seen yet or just had there debut run so far.when doing the antepost for the ryanair,i looked at imperial aura but didn't feel he was up to it.i had already suggested we may have the top races,at least 2 of them being won by horses who ran in handicaps in the 2020 festival,mainly sire de berlais and saint roi.i thought vinndication and greenetean might progress into gold cup and champion chasers and get a place at big odds,but what i've saw so far ,i feel they are are long way off bridging the gap from handicaps to grade 1.the ryanair out of the 5 grade 1 championship races was the one didn't think a ex handicapper could win and not the northern trust novice hcap as well.i wasn't sure about his carlise win on how good he was ,but today i've got a better feeling about him.it's hard to change your mind if you don't fancy a horse for a certain race like i did with imperial aura for the ryanair,but hes won 2 from 2 now and seems to be going the right way.the clock and formline though of itchy feet is backing me up more.itchy feet got too close to my likening.i rated him at listed level after his aintree 3rd recently.he only beat him by 5l and itchy feet was gaining from the last.his sandown win initially was the fastest chase that day,but i had to review the sandown standards and found 2m4f chase rp standard was way to lenient.so dolos ended up being the fastest chase in the end.i didn't realise this until after the festival as i already backed itchy feet in the arkle but i knew before aintree he might not win and so it proved.first flow was a close 2nd to dolos that day at sandown and he won today.racing post have been messing around with the standards and have made 2m5f chase at ascot way too easy,it was ok as it was.i have the 2m chase as the faster race won by first flow and given how itchy feet was 5l 2nd in the grade 2 chase,imperial aura needed to win by 15l i reckon to be a genuine ryanair contender.i have timed the sections of both race sand the 2m chase had a fast pace until ginos trail had enough.when black corton fell as well imperial aura injected some pace as well so from being 2.1 secs behind,he had closed in to +0.7 in front.however he failed t maintain this advantage and then dropped to 1.5 at the last and 2.7 at the line from first flow .this is a big drop ,albeit i have to take into account the extra 4f he run but that is some time drop.this is why itchy feet was able to close like he did.a drop in time was expected but 3.6 is massive.if he had won by 15l in which i think is needed to win a ryanair,then he would of only dropped to 0.7 behind.i'm going to maintain this about him unless of course he wins better on his next run.at the same time first flow may be better than just a handicapper. capeland was a fast winner of this last year and took a 5l beating in 3rd.first flow took a easy route as a novice chaser and it may just be that has benefited him.this ground was also gdsf,not soft,just like the october meeting.race times are just to quick for soft.first flow as been kept to heavy ground and even the jockey thought it was too fast today and not soft enough.this opens up new possibilities and it maybe of been the reason kim bailey ran him in so may ordinary novice chase's as the ground was heavy .i'd go for better targets now with him and aim for the clarence house at ascot in january.
i also must mention song for someone who won well.he clocked the fastest of the 2m hurdles at kempton and won well here.i have the likes of ballyhandy./call me lord/silver streak/sceau royal has grade 2 at there best types ,unlikely to win a champion hurdle and take around a dozen lengths or so beating against the best .i think this horse fits somewhere between epantante/saint roi/abacadabras and those others i've mentioned.i would seriously consider the xmas hurdle at kempton for him now and at a track he likes as well.he only seems to run right handed so cheltenham would be alien to him.
at haydock,the afternoon rain paid to any meaningful times analysis .i reckon it was heavy to begin with but got heavier.the right result in the betfair chase happened as well as lost in translation i suspect doesn't stay that well,so a good pace and heavy ground ,as well as fto was going to find him out and so it did and was looked after. i've always felt the king george was more ideal even last season but he pulled up in it after a breathing issue.despite what happened today,he will come on for it and i still think the king george is a more realistic target then taking on bristol de mai here.he beat him last year due to a slower pace and better ground. this is why i feel the ryanair he should go for instead of the gold cup. bdm i feel should be rested for the irish gold cup,he ran a good 3rd when rested in the 2019 gold cup,he not up to that standard and track isn't to his likening ,but the irish gold cup can be sub standard and gives him a good rest now as going to the king george will come too soon.i cant see the point in the cotswold chase again and gold cup,they might as well go for another grade 1 after a decent rest. clan des obeaux as put himself spot on for the king george again,he was going easy until 2 out then probably lack of recent run told.he 's lost 5 times now fto but as won 4 times 2nd time out so can he make it 5 wins 2nd time out in the king george?
gowran park saw ferny hollow win on his hurdling debut ,but i've had doubts about the festival bumper form and not been impressed by the 3rd and 4th from it so far.he clocked a slower time than the 3yo hurdle winner youmdor hoever the 2 races were run differently with no pace in the ferny hollow race which cause the final time to be slower.he did finished 2 secs quicker form 2 out as a result,but i feel as hes's fav for the supreme hurdle,he hasn't done much here to justify it.early days though but maybe youmdor isn't a bad shout for the triumph at this early stage.i'm not that good with novice hurdlers or juvenile hurdlers in all honestly.
and finally at naas notebook,my 33-1 champion chase hope won well and was cut to 20-1.he won by 12l and i suspect freshness is the key to him .no realistic chase to compare this race too in terms of times and sections.i would run him over xmas and then straight to champion chase.forget drf this time round.beating the runner up by 12l indicates he as the beating of ptko who i wasn't impressed with last week in her cheltenham win.i don't think he's that far in front of his stablemate, but hes a 2m chaser and she can easily go for the mares chase instead .
so adding to my potential festival list and other big races,.....
youmdor 20-1 for the triumph .i think he could be quite smart
felix desjy 16- for the arkle. he and shiskin can easily win in there own countries leading to the arkle. can't see a genuine 2m novice chaser trained in ireland in the arkle betting ,unless sharjah switches to fences and envoi allen goes for 2m chases.
monalee 25-1 bet365 for the king george,may only be a small field again and trainer is keen to come and happy with his seasonal debut.i feel the race distance and track is ideal,he and lost in translation are similar types to me.
song for someone xmas hurdle but no odds yet.
to be wary of........ferny hollow and imperial aura both 8-1 favs for the supreme and ryanair need to do more for me and i suspect with imperial aura he hasn't got that much improvement in him.
next week i will hopefully be talking about minella indo's amazing win at navan. he's already shortened to as low as 8-1 as i write this as he's forecast 1-4 fav to win at navan in a 3m grade 3 chase so some bookies have clipped him expecting a easy win.i think he will go into 2nd fav if he wins well at navan.
16/11/20
Starting at wincanton badger ales day. sceau royal won the elite and king is doing what hobbs did last year with defi de seiul he’s finding good opportunities by switching him and finding the right races.dds ran in last year shloer chase and only got half penalty.then he took on a ageing uds in the tingle creek and at ascot.his tingle creek time was poor in relation to the novices over 2m that day. hobbs used his brains and took advantage of altior not being around at 2m. this was good placing I feel b hobbs to drop in trip and take advantage,but in the champion chase,and i'm not in that camp that he ran that much below form,he lost because he’s not a genuine 2 miler imo. alan king is doing a similar thing with sceau royal,he took advantage of his lower hurdle mark on 150,he last ran off 155 over hurdles a few years again and got as high as 164 over fences in between.so he was able to run in a class 2 hcap hurdle and not even be top weight at ffos las,plus got his ground and won.he then came here as the ground was still good and had no penalty in this grade 2 and was highest rated and he duly won.I can see why alan king was keen to run him in the shloer chase soon after,he would have had no penalty but unfortunately the ground went against him and he was declared.from now on he has a 6lb penalty in graded hurdles and the ground looks like it wont be good again for a long time being,but he’s got 2 quick wins out of him by good placing by his trainer.at wincanton,he didn’t do nothing special on the clock to suggest he’s improved to grade 1 level and can be considered a genuine champion hurdle prospect. nicholls blamed the cheltenham track for solo’s poor run in the triumph,but he’s not that good .he was the slowest of the 3 hurdles that day at kempton and even diego du charmil was faster and he has finished in front of him here.he got his flat track and maybe he could of needed this run fto ,so I will be keen to see what he can do nto but I’m not expecting much tbh and he’s just part of the 4yo hurdles that as come from a poor triumph hurdle.I’m not getting carried away with ga law rising stars chase win as well.when I previewed ,I didn’t think it was up to much and grand saucy had a breathing issue and jumped left so o run for him.he should of really done better on the clock for me to think he’s a proper graded novice chaser.he needs to improve for me.I don’t know how odds compilers reach there conclusion half the time when they price up a big handicap like the badger ales .2 of the first 3 in the betting ran in hurdles lto ,especially champagne courts who had a run lto for his first run of the season and ran poor and his final 2 runs last season were over fences taking 21l beatings my way had won a maiden hurdle lto but he had lost of 1lbd and 2lb higher chase marks over fences and was on 126 and took a 10l beating on 126 as well last year. danny whizzbang had 2 big beatings on his final chase runs last year. nicholls was obviously a factor in there odds but I thought I had a good bet in potterman who was 2nd at chepstow fto last month on similar going and trip in a decent timed race.I also though the 3rd that day some chaos was also a decent bet for ew purpose as he as came out and won since and so it proved with a unlucky 2nd at 10-1 and 5th at 12-1 with skybet doing 5 places.
Aintree had a 2m4f hurdle that featured decent hurdles just off top class. the time wasn’t much faster than the novice hurdle but I feel wilde about oscar is a serious horse for his 16l win.he’s 33-1 for the supreme and ballymore and skelton as a serious horse here I feel.at first ,it thought maybe the there wasn’t much pace on in the class 2 hurdle but I did the fences and also looked at the pertemps fences as well just in case both 2m4f were slower run than they should be but they wasn’t,the novice got to less than 1 sec behind by halfway but then closed in to go 1.2 quicker 2 out ,but then the experienced hurdles close it back down in the end.1st hurdle to line is 0.9 as well difference instead of final time of 1.5 and wilde about oscar was eased down.this is a top novice hurdle performance.nothing to note from the chase really.
At sandown,I thought if the cap fits was worth taking on.I wasn’t sure about him despite his ffos las win ,but I went through my notes from his hurdles form and despite a liverpool hurdle win,it wasn’t a true 3m test that day and he beat roksana another horse I suspect isn’t a true 3m stayer.he got the trip due to not a great pace on good ground around a sharp track.also he was supposed to run at wincanton in the rising stars over 2m4f,because the ground was too fast they went to sandown and I dare say harry fry;s decision was made easier once he saw he only had 2 rivals at sandown.I assumed henderson would start champ of here ,but he’s had a wind op so he relied on pym who I though would front run and see the trip out better than if the cap fits and that’s what happened.it was a poor race really,pym despite this win is not top class and I can see him struggling again like he did last season in the 2nd half.the time was slower than the vets hcap chase due to a slower pace so if the cap fits didn’t even have that of a decent pace and still failed to stay and 2m4f is a trip he needs to be running at next time.the final time difference is 6 secs but first fence to line is 2.4.the vet chase got around 3 secs in front after the first few but 3.7 was the biggest they got ahead of pyms race.this happens a lot rally and the final time as to be checked as pym as still not ran that well using the vets chase as a guide but it was not as big as 6 secs or 30l,it was 2.4 secs or 12l of them.
At navan ,my stayers hurdle antepost hope sire du berlais was making his seasonal debut.I thought he may need it and elliott seemed to say a similar thing but he got up and just won.he is 10s from 16s now for the stayers.I was expecting a bit of a upset as he was 2-1 forecast fav the day before but sp of 9-2 and opened 7-2 on the day which I felt was more realistic for him fto.a few others like supasundae as well is dodgy fto so I thought maybe sixshooter might have been more value and I’m sure he was 5-1 or 6s the day before before going off 5-2.I don’t have reliable standards for irish course and the rp standards i don’t trust much in the uk let alone irish jump courses.the race was 21 secs quicker than the maiden hurdle over the same trip so it seems a good test and probably had to be as he got up late to win.I think if it was a slower run race he may not of got there as he’s a strong stayer.he looked to have the better of ronald pump as well before he fell at the last.that’s the stayers hurdle 2nd and using the clock that day,the pertemps was a faster race and not because the stayers was more slowly run,it was down to ability and elliott is finally realising he as a horse that can win it,he should of tried last season imo.
On the same card,a plus tard was out and I was desperate fro him to win but he came 2nd.I cant decided what trip he is bets at.trainer seems to think maybe longer but I thought he should of tried the champion chase last year,albeit de bromhead wasn’t to know altior and cps weren’t to but I bet he wished he had gone for that race now.I knew he had a betfair entry so was wondering if this race was just a warm up that.I don’t think he stays 3m really but maybe 2m is too short as well.I was hoping he would win well and that would force de bromhead to go champion chase route.as I write this though,de bromhead as taken him out the betfair chase.with ornua in the race and he did go clear in front,you expect a good pace and it was a better final time than the beginners chase over 1f longer but its not fair to compare beginners chases like that,the are more steadily run usually.I have to say it was disappointing he didn’t beat castlegrace paddy in this.he is 15lb clear on officially rating,I don’t take that at gospel at top level,but the 3rd horse rated 130 was 13.5l behind when it should of been 16l and these pair were all out as well.also the 130 3rd horse wasn’t ridden out as there was a faller at the last who was booked for 3rd,so its disappointing really.only de bromhead will know if he needed the run or not and at what level his fitness was fto here.he was 2nd in this last year though and then won a 2m grade 1 after,so its possible he wasn’t fit his rival.I felt it was strange he was given a betfair entry and run in this given 2 weeks apart the races were so it adds weight to the fact he needed this run again fto. apt took 27.8 from 2 out to the line the jam man took 30.2 easy work took 28.9 so this at least suggest he does have the pace for shorter trips but the 130 rated 3rd took 28.8 and wasn’t ridden out for 3rd.eclair de beaufeu fell at the last when 7l down.there no doubt in my mind saint roi should of been in the supreme and the county hurdle in my view was almost as good as the supreme but I thought maybe the grand annual was a better event this year now that younger unexposed horses dominated the finish instead of 12yo winners and maybe too this wasn’t that far of the arkle.I think its becoming obvious it isn’t that the grand annual cannot provide a champion chase genuine contender as edb was a close 2nd in the grand annual.he also had 9lb less weight than the winner here who is grade 2 at best.possible could of needed the run as well being fto but he was 13l of notebook last year who failed to show his true running in the arkle and I expect much better from notebook this season.along with greenetean just about winning the haldon gold cup,its not exactly got that strong look about it. elliott also as said he thinks edb could switch back to hurdles and he was supposed to run at down royal first 2 weeks ago or but he fancied a hcap hurdle at fairyhouse in early december ,but then decides to come here.given he fell,I suspect he will be back over hurdles nto where he as a 135 rating compared to 153 over fences.I think it just highlights how limited he really is over fences and he came 2nd in the grand annual as well.chosen mate needs considerable improvement to be a champion chase prospect given how the form is working out.
Easywork got the better of embittered by 2.75l in the beginners chase.both owned gigginstown,we had the ballymore hurdle 2nd v the county hurdle 3rd .using envoi allen as a guide,its about the right result how they finished .it was a steady run affair so not much guide form the clock really ,but given the winners final 2 fences taking 28.9 when I highlighted the 3rd home in the fortria chase was 28.8,it suggest he needs longer and you can see why he got bat by asteron forlonge when 5-4fav last season over 2m before he ran a better race in the 2m5f ballymore afterwards
I thought fiddlersontheroof at exeter was worth taking on as if the cap fits recent loss was still fresh in my mind and he took a 7l beating by him.he was 11/10 as well but I wasn’t keen on sporting john either fto on his chase debut 10/11 fav . i rate mcfabulous and can’t wait to see him in the long distance hurdle in 2 weeks and so I noticed silver hallmark beat him once and wasn’t far behind him in another race last year.he almost did it at 12-1,I didn’t bet in the end but would have been gutted.
Clonmel oil chase day and I was disappointed by the line up really beforehand and after the race was run.it was slower final time than shattered loves mares listed chase win the race before.however just glancing at the times doesn’t tell the full story so fences are needed and to check of the final time from 1st fence to the line is similar as the starting tape to line final time given.so these are the sections from the 2 races.there was 3.5 secs difference in time but 1st fence to the line gives just 1.9 and its a short run to the first fence
Shattered love bachasson
fence 2: 00:00:08 (989) +0.3 fence 2: 00:00:09 (212)
fence 3: 00:00:41 (421) +1.2 fence 3: 00:00:42 (680)
fence 4: 00:01:01 (426) +1.7 fence 4: 00:01:03 (144)
fence 5: 00:01:17 (447) +1.4 fence 5: 00:01:18 (886)
fence 6: 00:01:31 (918) +1.3 fence 6: 00:01:33 (213)
fence 7: 00:02:39 (51) +1.2 fence 7: 00:02:40 (709)
fence 8: 00:02:47 (580) +1.7 fence 8: 00:02:50 (06)
fence 9: 00:03:20 (784) +1.9 fence 9: 00:03:22 (684)
fence 10: 00:03:40 (516) +2.0 fence 10: 00:03:42 (505)
fence 11: 00:03:55 (980) +2.0 fence 11: 00:03:57 (970)
fence 12: 00:04:09 (514) +1.9 fence 12: 00:04:11 (480)
fence 13: 00:05:13 (425) +1.1 fence 13: 00:05:14 (577)
fence 14: 00:05:22 (456) +2.1 fence 14: 00:05:24 (516)
Line 00:05:33 (22) +1.9 line 00:05:35 (12)
The 4 mares were closely bunched together more than the clonmel oil runners did but the sections say the went a better pace slightly.the clonmel oil had loads of older graded types that will not win a ryanair or similar grade 1 chase.it gave good opportunity for cilaos emery being the more lightly raced chaser but there were stamina doubts and so it proved.he did carry 5lb more for a 5.5l beating so in theory should of been closer of level weights.tbf to bachasson hes 5 from 6 at 2m4f to 2m6f over fences now.so no realistic ryanair contender here and cilaos emery surely needs dropping in trip now.he is 3 from 4 over 2m/2m1f and fell in the other.he as beat melon over 2m in hurdles but he as also beat ballyoison by 7l over 2m chases ,that horse did beat a plus tard .this heavy ground as well was too much.cilais emery to me would be interesting in a 2m chase on a decent surface as I feel soft ground may also be too much of a test even at the minimum trip.he as a john durkan entry over 2m4f but I’m not convinced that right unless he face poor rivals in it. mullins seems to of have stronger 2m4f types in that with different owners as well.shattered love won eased down as well but she easily beats mares but struggles in open chases.she needs her first run each season as when she was a novice I remember her having a busy season b the time she won the jlt chase.she doesn’t stay 3 miles as well.
Cheltenham day one and protektoret was a impressive winner.I expected the 2m hcap chase to be the faster race but it was this horse in the 2m4f novice chase.the pace of the 2m chase though wasn’t strong.with 3 to go,the novices had got there 2.5 secs quicker but 2 out was 3.3 quicker.its only after the last fence did magic saint close in.this is very promising and dan skelton now as a good novice chaser to join wilde about oscar who’s his top novice hurdler.I get annoyed when seemingly slow horse go up in class and win like does he know.I should be more lenient using speed point regarding novice hurdlers as I’m not the best with these type of horses as there young and lightly race.does he know was miles off tagereks time when he won here in october but he was the fastest hurdler on the Friday card,but not by much and in relation to the 119 horse who won after,its not great.he aims for the challow hurdle and I will be keen to take him on.wild romance ran a strange race in 2nd.the jockey looked like he gave up around the final bend,I cant believe no one on twitter or betfair forum picked up on this and he finished fast from the last hurdle.he is trained by dan skelton and may be smart also.
On Saturday,the paddy power confused me and and I opted out in the end.the winner coole cody is a novice so I had to check back to his recent 2nd at the october meeting beaten by southfield stone.it was the fastest chase that day,but it rained casing going changes so comparing to the chases run after was no point.southfield stone did let the form down on Friday seemingly but this boosts protektoret .not that fuisse who was 3rd was beaten 12l in the haldon gold cup but dropped back in trip that day.he was 4l to al dancer last year here over this trip so coole cody had a big weight advantage on that form line and so it proved as he made all with a low weight despite mistakes.with spirotofthegames in 2nd it only gives the race a average look to it really. al dancer is the moral winner in 3rd given his big weight.I’m discarding his arkle 22l beating but he as lost to the likes of just below top class novice chasers last season like global citizen and mister fisher.when I looked at simply betts as well,the brown advisory wasn’t a race I felt would produce future graded horses.he had 9lbs more than spiritofhegames here and finished 9l behind him.I think he’s just handicapped to his best like spiritofthegames and al dancer are.if the time was better,I’d be more inclined to think we had a above average paddy power but we had a lucky winner of the grade 2 novice chase and I’m kicking myself for not being brave to lay here on betfair. fusil raffles is no good on soft and hendersons confidence in him and mister fisher was there to see.also he;s more a 2m4f horse as daryl jacobs suggested lto.quel destin was 2nd fav on his chase debut,nicholls often does throw them in graded novice chases fto over fences,grand saucy last year was one he did it with but they never run well really.now this is a reason why I’m not impressed with the paddy power.some complex times and form lines I looked back at and if fusil raffles had run to best,he as about 17l advantage over gumball who looked likely to win the novice chase before falling 2 out,but soft ground and poor jumping paid to him running to his best.this means the novice chase would have been a way faster race than the paddy power.I know the paddy power was run on soft and the novice chase gdsf,but it was soft all day by the times and there was only 35 minutes between each race,not 3 hours so I reckon the paddy power was run on slightly softer going at best ,if not equal going. eldorado allen I can’t have as being a top novice chaser based on this at all.I like to find a 2m4f grade 3 chaser cheltenham specialist for the ryanair as they often run well at big odds like aso and saint calvados I don’t feel the paddy power will offer such horse this year and I’m still keen on cepage to be the surprise outsider who runs well in the ryaniar.
Sunday at cheltenham and I look forward to the greatwood hurdle but that’s because of rooster booster days.it is a race that sadly doesn’t produce champion hurdlers no more.looking at the line up,you can just tell beforehand it wasn’t going to have any effect on the champion hurdle tegerek had won fats lto at the october meeting but on good ground.he ran well but he had a low weight again. ballyhandy top weight in 2nd is the moral winner and he is simply not good enough in top grade 1 hurdles.it was the fastest race of the day overall but not that far in front of the others sir pyscho taking a 18l beating as well didn’t do the triumph form any favours as its a weak race.edwardstone I felt his 25l 6th in the supreme wasn’t his true running but he’s took a 7l beating in this just to highlight how far behind the form of this race looks.
Without doubt the shloer chase was the most unusual race of the day.given its competition with a 3m novice chase and a 3m3f hcap chase,it should be the fastest chase of the 3 but it wasn’t,the 3m3f chase was.last year ptko was slightly faster in winning the arkle trial here a than dds was in winning this.she clocks around 4m8 to 4m9 at this trip in the past on soft/heavy in places ground like this.she has done close to 4m14 this year.now comparing times from different years is not the best idea, but I needed to get more info on this race.it was a slow motion finish so I timed her form 2 out.she took 30 secs but the big breakaway and ramses de tiellee took 26 secs roughly.she was about 3 to 4 secs slower.I was expecting ddg to run some kind of race,regardless of last poor form,he was a fast 13l arkle winner.so at first I wasn’t surprised ,but when analysing the times and sectionals,I was amazed.when I did m champion chase antepost thoughts,I chose notebook over here and even greenetean .this was because I wasn’t sure about here or where she would end up,there’s the mares chase now she can go for and this will give de bromhead a chance to split his runners out and give himself more chances of winners.I believe she is a better horse than she as shown here,maybe she needed it more than the trainer thought as it was fto instead of a few runs like she did when winning at this meeting last year,but I got a nagging doubt about her now de bromhead was keen to run her here and it worked but his comments suggest to me he doesn’t fancy her in irish grade 1 chases.I;m intrigued to she what she does in her next race before judging her ,but will she go the same was as ddg ,the 2019 arkle winner this season?
The supreme novice hurdle trial is historically a hot race but I think it can still be,but not the winner.I’m thinking one or even both in fidelio vallis and courtandbold will be useful back on decent ground like there previous form was on.they have close form with what I think smart horses in mrs hyde and mcfabulous ,but on good ground,this heavy was not to there likening at all and both finished tired horses.
I haven’t reviewed Saturday at punchestown yet but the Sunday card I have .having been keen on abacadabras and saint roi for the champion hurdle,I knew this was going to be a close race between the 2.it did work out that way but I was expecting a dozen lengths back to 3rd ,not a head.now around the last bend,all 5 were together and at the last ,4 were close together as supasundae was first to crack.saint roi pulled as well and the pace wasn’t great fro a grade 1 hurdle.these were the final sections of the hurdle races
15.9 buildmeupbuttercup 18.54 f 16.37 spf
13.5 fury road (run up 13.7) 21.54 f 16.84 spf
15.3 aba (sant roi 14.9) 16.18 f 16.00 spf
16.2 fighter allen 21.54 f 16.57 spf
13.9 grand partner 16.18 f 16.79 spf
Fury road final section being the fastest I wasn’t expecting ,but his race was run at a crawl which he set.the runner up as also finished fast which just highlights how slowly run that 2m5f grade 2 hurdle was saint roi was just under 15 secs as he closed in on abacadabras. now this as confused me a bit more now given buildmeupbuttercup who was behind saint roi in the county hurdle she was cruising and going just as well as saint roi but he had the superior speed after the last and it showed again here .now coeur sublime in 6.5l 4th as took a 12.5l beating by sharjah last year.that amounts to 1.2 secs or so difference .now the supreme time v the champion hurdle was 1.17 faster and sharjah in turn would have been 0.42 in front of abacadabras however I get a different time form the first hurdle of just 0.3 seconds difference in favour of the champion hurdle.something isn’t quit right here.the time difference as well from the 2m hcap hurdle is 12.9 which is 52 lengths or so so a 115 winner gives 167 rating plus minus the jockey claim,they carried 7lb more as well the grade 1 hurdlers did.now I’m inclined to think the ace wasn’t as bad as we assume.a slow pace can cause inferior horses to finish closer than they should .I have a rule of thumb that if horse A is 10l faster than B in a true run race,in a slow run race he can get that down to 5l. it might explain why coeur sublime got closer than I thought in 6.5l instead of double that.however we have jason the militant in close 3rd upsetting the form as well.you can clearly see that they ran at 16 secs per furlong on average,way faster than the other races,albeit I have to take the longer trips into account and fury roads race was a joke of a crawl.but comparing it with buildmeupbettercup average seconds per furlong suggests it wasn’t as slow run as it seemed. supasundae 14.5l beating in champion hurdle,but 12.5l here.is jason the militant a genuine champion hurdle contender and also a tongue tie as well he wore to suggest he’s had breathing issues?
Quick update on my ante post
Greenetean 66-1 now 20-1 (won haldon gold cup)
Notebook 33-1 still 33-1 (not run yet)
Abacadabras 10-1 now 8-1 (2nd and won grade 1)
Sant roi 25-1 now 8-1 (won and 2nd in grade 1 since)
Vinddication 50-1 now 40-1 (2nd charlie hall)
Minella indo 14-1 now 10-1 (won on debut easy)
Sire de berlais 16-1 now 10-1 (won grade 2)
Thyme hill 16-1 now 12-1 (not run yet)
Alloha 12-1 now 10-1 (not run yet)
Cepage still no odds.
Also wilde about oscar 33-1 for ballymore looks good value protektorek 25-1 for marsh, but maybe more of a 3 miler for next year and no rsa odds .mrs hyde is 20-1 for the mares novice hurdle,quite big I feel at this stage.she could easily put a string of wins together in the uk in mares/novice hurdles before she gets there and will be much shorter.
6/11/20
I finished the last blog just before aintree started so I start with the old roan grade 2 hcap chase.firstly,despite a grade 2 status,you need really to look at the ratings and what the runners have achieved on each renewal .ascot recently staged a 0-155 hcap listed chase and I feel this was no different.it had a 158 top weight instead and attracted no mid 160 types.itchy feet is a horse I backed in the marsh chase at the festival but he unseated early.this was based on his scilly isle win at sandown,a race at the time I believed was the fastest chase of the day.on a end of season review of standards,I feel the 2m4f chase standard at sandown is too lenient,so made it 3 secs tougher myself and he then didn’t come out as the fastest ,the 2m hcap chase did that day.I though still felt as he was lightly raced and had more potential and could win this but he came 3rd and again,never underestimate a horse who’s had a recent run like nuts well had,the winner of this.from now on,he will have a grade 2 penalty,normally 6lb in graded races so maybe another hcap of 159 is a better option.I do like to keep a open mind when analysing races and as he’s trained by a low key trainer,he will always be decent odds .when I looked at this race beforehand,I found 7 or 8 that could win this in imo,this means a non betting race for me but also a big price winner doesn't surprise me like his 18-1 was and had fitness on his side.this race though should of been the fastest,but the vets hcap chase was ,albeit a 14l winner of that and 3 points faster on my points scale.if I take minellacelebration out,we have a desert orchid run just 1 point or 2.5l quicker than a vet hcap chase,the race as a cautious look about it as initially I though maybe not a great pace caused the time to be slower than it should be,but I’ve done this splits and it simply isn't up to grade 2 status.I do separate hurdles and chase course but 2 of the 3 hurdle races were slightly quicker as well and I think the going was the same on both courses.this is why I am disappointed with itchy feet as despite fto,this he should of won if we are to believe he is a true grade 1 type.
We had down royal and wetherby the following Friday and again on Saturday with ascot on top. I always class the october chepstow meeting as the first meeting of the proper season but this weekend I feel is where it proper hots up so was looking forward to it,especially as abacadabras was running .the wkd hurdle as a history of beaten horses turning out to be better than the winner.it seems a natural starting point at the end of october to get the top hurdlers out for the season and build up to the festival.with abacadabras he’s already proven top class,with aspire tower the winner,he has been disappointing so had something to prove.I feel he was more ready for this than abacadabras was .put it this way,based on festival form and using times,I think apsire tower ran at least 20l slower to abacadabras did.I do suspect he didn’t run to his best in the triumph but would never of beaten goshen anyway.this race was also just 2.7 secs quicker than the mares hurdle were the first 5 were within 3l. I’ve thought bar goshen,we have a poor bunch of 4yo hurdlers and allmankinds loss the other weak was a blow to the 4yo generation.the morigana hurdle maybe a a race to see if these 1-2 turn up with saint roi as well,I expect abacadabras to reverse form with this one but saint roi should test him.
Down royal on Saturday was a strange day.we had impressive novice and 3yo hurdle winners that were made favs for there festival race and I don’t spend that much time on them like I do chasers or experienced hurdles.the champion chase was 2.1 quicker than the average hcap chase over 3m. this was down to pace and both 3m races were slowly run.the grade 2 2m4f chase however was fast run.the storyteller won his first grade 1 chase since april 18.he spent his 2nd season struggling in grade 1 and 2 chase,so reverted back to hurdles last season and did well.he’s been busy and fully fit.its delta work and presenting percy who probably needed it more.delta work always needs fto run,but I’m not sure how really good he is as he doesn’t show his best at the festival presenting percy I’ve always felt I not grade 1 but not far off.he as well should come on more.the pace of the race was simply slow,despite a 10l front runner,it was not a good pace for a grade 1 race.easy game is a horse I feel was aimed at the wrong race at the festival.he had beat the storyteller lto with his jumping being good,but on this occasion,his jumping let him down. battleoverdoyen wins his first 3 each season usually then goes of the boil around festival time.I will also question how strong his winter novice chase form is as he was 24l beaten in the rsa (trip maybe too far?)but also he fell when faugheen won at the dublin racing festival over 2m5f but was beaten anyway when he fell and as only just won a slow run 3 runner chase at grade 1 level.I feel easy game,for whatever reason he jumped poorly,ran below form here and is the better horse.with samcro in 6l 3rd,this appears good form and it well could be,its just that the time is the fastest as reasons I’ve mentioned but based on the winners previous form,I ain’t convinced and feel the 2nd and 3rd will end up better as the season goes on and are better festival prospects.
Wetherby on saturday saw my gold cup ew vinndication run in the charlie hall.I bet kim bailey couldn't believe nicholls chose this race for cyrname .however I’m going to go against the over reaction from the racing media hype. cyrname is a top horse,his 176 rating I feel is justified as I’ve gave him big speed points in the past,top marks from me ,but over shorter.this was a easier race as stupid as it sounds than the ascot 3m handicap.he was 15lb clear and only had to give 2lb to vinndication who is no where near grade 1 level like him but I feel he may progress this season to be on the fringe,or so I thought.the rain did play a bit of havoc with the time,but 5.4secs quicker than the other 3m hcap chase is not good reading even taking into account they had rain after the first race had been run.also it wasn’t the fastest overall race,mrs hyde was slightly faster,albeit over hurdles.now I analysed race times on Friday as well,and I felt both the chase course and hurdles were the same going and again on the Saturday.the fact his,cyrname didn’t need to be at his best and when I’ve looked at the sectionals as well,I’m not convinced we have a new 3m player.I know he won easy and could of won by a few more lengths ,but the 146 horse in 7l 3rd and overall time as well suggest he isn’t proven stamina wise vinndication I thought ran well at first,but on time analysis,I’m sightly disappointed with him.he stayed on nicely and maybe this quick track wasn’t to his likening,cheltenham and ascot suit better ,but he goes well fresh like the winner does but just felt he should of done better as he got outpaced a bit.however I may be being to hard on him ,he took on a much speedier horse where the race was more run to suit him on a track that doesn't suit him.I would though like to think a true run gold cup ,he would reverse the form with the winner if they ever met there,but where he finishes overall I couldn’t say at this moment. cyrname as 2 weeks extra rest this time round to the king george and hasn’t has a harder race fto than last year,so a easy 3m at kempton I couldn’t rule out,especially if a small field as well .fitzgerald said after mrs hyde had clocked the same sectionals at kempton as verdana blue did.also take into account verdana blue dislikes soft ground,there’s no surprise really she lost to a much inferior rated horse,but the clock told us a different story at kempton. she came out just as fast as silver streak did and the uk could have a decent trained mare .being a novice as well,she can go for novice and/or mares events and run up a sequence till the festival .she won the fastest hurdle race of the day like she did when joint fastest at kempton .roksana won a slow run sprint finish 3m grade 2 hurdle and the pace of the race played right into her strength as she as form over shorter.the stayers hurdle winner was 4th,no surprise really as we have average grade 1 stating hurdles,well there not really grade 1 but just grade 1 staying winners on paper.lets not forget roksana is usually beaten 12l in proper grade 1 races or if she meets a grade 1 winning horse outside a grade 1.
There was really much to note form ascot although I will mention kid commando was the fastest and might be one to watch as he’s lightly raced and young.
At carlise on Sunday,I like to watch the colin parker. its difficult to compare the northern trust hcap chase from a time perspective as its up against the arkle which is the faster race.the difference in speed points I used to give was massive,until I realised the 2m chase standard is lenient.one i adjusted it,a plus tard time was one of the closest compared to the arkle since i kept records from 2016 and he was grade 1 winner after.imperial aura is the 2nd closest but around 4 points or 8l slower than arkle winner than a plus tard was.however we have to assume footpad and put the kettle on are at the same level.the final time of 4.2 secs quicker than the 123 hcap winner doesn’t look good,however the pace was similar until 4 out then imperial aura got quicker. kim bailey found a nice into race for him as he was highest rated.he’s ruled out the paddy power and maybe ascot or huntingdon grade 2 next.when I did the festival review,I got to admit I thought he might struggle this season.I didn’t have him down as a genuine ryanair prospect.I still don’t as I feel maybe he should of done a little but better on the clock ,he wasn’t extending his lead from the 2l or so he won by.a grade 2 like the peterborough chase might be ideal,small field and he wont have a 6lb penalty,just 4lb.I feel valuable grade 3 hcaps are harder to win than many grade 2 races.he needs to do more but is possible,but I still have around 4 horses I would favour over him for the ryanair at this stage
'Ill round off at exeter on haldon god cup day and it was nice to see my champion chase hope greaneteen win it,only just though.I ant compare his sections as the other chases were over 3m and slower run.this was a decent pace but I do feel to be a champion chase prospect,he should of won better.he did blow up so needed the run.when I looked at the grand annual chase last season,I found that the race had changed,instead of exposed old horse like croco bay winning it,the younger novice types had took over ,similar to the county hurdle.the county hurdle was like a division 2 of the supreme ,but almost as good.this is like a division 2 of the arkle ,but not quite as good.the runner up as form with rouge vif and even taking into account the 19l beating put the kettle on gave him,I feel the 8l earlier in the season on better ground is more reliable to judge rouge vif by then his arkle run on testing ground.there’s not much between greaneteen and rouge vif based on the runner up.it was a welcome boost to the grand annual form as the county hurdle form as been boosted really well since.the tingle creek is next but it depends on how lines up. altior should go there and also depends on what ireland sends over.for me the best handicaps at the festival was the county hurdle followed by the pertemps and if they win the champion hurdle and stayers ,it will not surprise me.after that,I feel the handicap chases are unlikely to provide a champion chase or gold cup winner,just maybe a place at best ,hence why I suggested vinndication and greaneteen for ew purposes to sneak a cheeky place at nice odds.
…..Looking ahead,the morgiana hurdle next Sunday looks fascinating,saint roi v abacadabras is what I want to see and I see. a plus tard is entered in a 2m chase as well this Sunday.this is a trip I feel henry de bromhead should explore ,but he as also mentioned the betfair chase! sire de berlais is entered in a grade 2 ,they really need to aim for the stayers with him and not protect his hcap mark anymore .allmankind as just won well at warwick on his chase debut so will talk about that too more.solo runs in the elite hurdle but I’m not expecting that race to throw up anything worthwhile to be a serious champion hurdle winner,as mentioned 4yos look weak and the others entered look exposed.then we have the paddy power meeting at cheltenham to review as well .
Jumps speed points 26/10/20
The proper jump season as now begun with chepstow 2 day meeting starting off then followed by kempton and ffos las who staged the welsh champion hurdle and the 2 day open cheltenham meeting to review
At chepstow,many horses were non runners due to the fast ground and a few course records went .mcfabulous was the fastest on the card on Friday,although thyme white wasn’t that far behind in his 4yo hcap hurdle win. mcfabulous I would assume will go to newbury to test him against the stayers hurdler usual players but in a open division,he could well become a serious player especially if he beats paisley park and lisnager oscar.I still feel sire de berlais and thyme hill are the bigger dangers,although it possible thyme hill could turn up at newbury as well to make it more interesting.
Theres wasn’t much to note form the novice chasers time wise grand saucy only slightly faster than the 2 hcap chase winners so despite a 13l win,not really stood out on the clock.his life was made easier with fusil raffles being a non runner as well who as won at cheltenham since and I will talk about further down.I think grand saucy gets 2m4f if the ground is decent but stiff tracks and/or testing seems to stretch his stamina,2m on soft would be ideal as well.I wonder if they will try the henry viii novice chase on tingle creek day which s 2m grade 1 novice chase or stay at 2m4f with him,but he needs to improve to be a serious novice chaser player imo but given the amount of runs hes had and also last years chase form,I doubt the arkle or marsh chase he is good enough for.
The listed 2m hurdle at kempton saw silver streak beat verdana blue for the 5th time,thats hes finished in front of her 5 times even if he hasn’t won the race.I do feel verdana blue though is a better horse ,given good ground despite this,she as won at grade 1 level after all.silver streak as finished in front of her on soft or when receiving weight in hcaps,but this time she had the weight from him but failed to beat him to my surprise. many forum comments suggested a poor ride and there may be something in that ,but a lot I think was down to pace,it was a slow run race,they were 6 secs slower at halfway in comparison to the 2m novice hurdle on the same card and as a result a final almost identical.a fats run 2m hurdle on good brings our the best in verdana blue.silver streak is a consistent type but hes not grade 1 level.he does well outside grade 1 level and seems to win when dropped from a grade 1 to a lower level and is better of at these listed/grade 2 wfa hurdles,probably more so than a grade 3 hcap hurdle as he always seems vulnerable to a lightly weight types.in all honestly,he wont win a champion hurdle but maybe those small field grade 2s that often feature similar types to him that struggle at grade 1 level he could take this season.
At ffos las ballyhandy I was keen on but he got beat by sceau royal but 2.75l but received 4lb.a bit similar to silver streak really that finds it tough at grade 1 level but when dropped in class,usually wins or runs well,but he had top weight but sceau royal himself is a grade 2 type and returning from fences. again though,we talking 12 to 15l the 3 of them being beat in previous champion hurdles and its unlikely the will improve this season to challenge for the champion hurdle ,and this year I suspect will be a more competitive 2m hurdle division than last season.
At cheltenham,they rearranges the chase races so the 2m hcap chase and the 2m novice chase were on the Friday this year.comparing race times can be misleading,I like to look at the splits at each fence and also the start of the race,some racesare much further back from the starting tape and can be in full stride when they pass the starter and the clock watcher presses go and others are more slower into stride,especially if no front runner so go past the starter not in full flow.timing from the first fence an give a different prospective.
I backed rouge vif in the arkle myself,but my gut feeling about the soft ground and rain that day came true and he ran a near 20l 3rd.I still wasn’t sure if cheltenham suited him despite the good ground but he won well of 2nd top weight. his odds for the champion chase more than halved as a result.then along came fusil raffles and bettered his time,although I had it at 0.5 secs from the first fence instead of 1.2 overall. ive checked the pace of both race and the hcap was 3 secs quicker by fence 2 but from halfway,the novices started to catch up and got 2 secs quicker 3 out ,although it was 0.5 at the lime as rouge vif started to draw away from his rivals.now this puts rouge vif win in some sort of perspective really although I don't think hes 20l inferior of the arkle winner and he did get to 8l of her in a previous run,he was just entitled to win this hcap as beat the judge was fav,a ex flat horse who i'm always suspect of doing well over fences.he came 3rd and it was a 66-1 shot who came 2nd.he looks like he will go to the schloer chase in november in 3 weeks time,probably a wise choice and he could still get good ground.waiting for the tingle creek means tougher opposition and more likely testing ground,although Its possible he could go there even if he went to cheltenham novembers meeting but its only 3 weeks rest.if the ground was good at cheltenham,I would go there first. fusile raffles though did run that bit faster and the jockey feels 2m4f is more his trip and is not a arkle type which I would agree and could be more marsh chase and even get 3 miles on time and henderson as shishkin aimed at that so i'm not expecting fusile raffles to go to the henry viii novice chase on tingle creek day.given the time difference is not that great,i'm not expecting unless they show more improvement to be champion chase or arkle contenders..galvin was a impressive winner of the 3m novice chase and is fav for the nh chase and the irish national after that is a target.he may not run again given hes had 4 runs now over fences and he missed the winter last year as well.he missed the galway festival due to a a bruise which was a shame he missed a big prize but,hes rated 152,he will be the highest rated chaser in the nh chase probably.from 5 out though,he clocked a time equal or slightly faster maybe up to 0.5l secs than both rough vif and fusile raffles did which is surprising.this may suggest that he has more speed than we think,dynaste I remember winning a 2m4f novice chase and he clocked final fast sectionals that I thought were to fast to suggest hes a stayer despite hes good 3m hurdle form and he looked likely to go back to 3m in future which he did.despite a 3m novice chase in,he struggled in experienced company over 3m and finally won a ryanair chase when dropped back to 2m5f. it could be that both fusile raffles and rouge vif final sections weren't that good in comparison because there not top 2m chasers really so this allowed galvin to match or slightly better them from 5 out. galvin as been winning over 2m4/5f as well and a food 2nd in the northern trust novice chase at the festival
Its nice to see saint roi win in ireland recently,I failed to take the 25-1 and hes now 10-1 for the champion hurdle. aramon as won twice since as well and as I suspected,the county hurdle form is solid.given epantante is a decent winner but not outstanding and goshen would of needed to win by 20l to match the county hurdle on the clock,then saint roi and abacadabras offer more value at 10-1 but i'm looking forward to these 2m grade 1s in ireland this season. elliott as a serious champion hurdle candidate to take on mullins with in these race,although I suspect maybe he could go to the fighting fifth to avoid mullins fto. it would be a early season treat to see saint roi and abacadabras face each other in a irish grade 1 hurdle. mullins as saldier,sharjah ,aramon and concertista as well ,and 3 of those 4 have different owners so i'm not going to be surprised if saint roi loses in the build up to the champion hurdle.in fact I hope he puts in a poor run and his odds may drift out.I suspected the wkd hurdle would be his starting point but hes been out earlier and won and now the champion hurdle is the plan for sure.some of the others I mentioned may go different routes like fences or try a longer distance and as i've said before,mullins will have a nice problem keeping these apart and I suspect he will have to go to the uk to find races to keep them apart.saint roi being by jp mac could go for the xmas hurdle for example if epantante was to miss it for some reason.the winner 2nd and 4th from the county hurdle have won 5 races between them from 6 runs over hurdles since to highlight how strong of a race that was.
i'm not sure what elliott is doing with chosen mate hes ran him 3 times since his grand annual win,2 over hurdles and a flat race whcih he won.he needed the run against aramon in the grimes hurdle then won a flat race but took a 7.5l beating by saint roi ,which I think rules out a realistic champion hurdle prospect if that what elliott was trying to find out about him.the grand annual form may appear poor at a glance but as the winner as ran over hurdles and on the flat and the 3rd us and them as ran over longer and failed and fell lto as well. ballywood as ran twice since ,12l beating b rouge vif and 9l by beat the judge which suggest this race is not looking that strong .greanateen I think might have a good season and he could enhance that grand annual form though given time.
Easy game won the pwc champion chase at gowran park,nice to see him at 2m4f as I backed him in the rsa ,reluctantly really as I said to myself I would back him at the festival but assumed the marsh chase and I thought he would be better of in the marsh chase compared to the rsa but mullins I suspected didn’t want faugheen to be beaten by his stablemate which I suspected he could of done the time before but was given a lot to do that day.I haven got a handle on him yet from a time point of view but he as beaten alloha who also is by mullins and I feel he is also better of over 2m4/5f as well and these pair would be 2 ryanair types for me.i'm a bit baffled why he ran poor in the 2m6.5f galway plate,even if maybe it was too far,thought he should of done better and was given plenty to do again .he may be better of in smaller field graded chases as he seems to run poor in big fields. although hes got a poor festival record so far,I feel the rsa was the wrong race and a big field ballymore may of been a reason,ryanairs often have single figure fields and 2m5f seems his best trip.easy game is 33-1 for the ryanair.
On the final day of the cheltenham meeting,allmankkind was beaten by botox has who on a previous match up was 2.5l in front of him but the winner got revenge on allmankind .I was kind of hoping almankind would win this well but its looking like his triumph 3rd is about as good as he is now.he might be better than he has showed here and in the triumph,but regardless anyway,hes way off goshen who kind of has some form links with this race as the 2nd the punk;n and im glad he didn’t win at 14-1 as he came 2nd to thyme white recently at chepstow in a race not far of the fastest hurdle race that day won by mcfabulous. goshen destroyed thyme white last season so this lot today haven't really done much to suggest the 4yo lot are going to get anywhere near the 2nd season and established hurdlers.honest vic as well ended up running faster than these,and came home from 2 out faster as well just to highlight how average these 4yos hurdles in this race were.so bar goshen there appears nothing from this age group and will surely struggle against there elders,and that includes ireland as well given burning victory would have been well beaten if goshen had stood up
It rained form the first race and the going changed by race 5 from good to gdsf which was unfortunate as I want to do sectionals of southfield stone v frodon which I did but its was evident from the sections and even though it was officially good in frodons race,the rain had got into the ground by then and the last 8 fences were just too slow in comparison to southfield stones race to be a fair comparison .my feeling is he beat little today and there is little options really but to go for the gold cup,he will be high 160s or 170 now and needs a bit longer than the 2m4/5f hes bee good at for ages,I reckon they will try the cotswolds again pre gold cup but wouldn't know where the will go between now and then.
so ive missed the the 25s for saint roi for the champion hurdle,now 10s. frodon i'm not worried about really for the gold cup ,must admit i like easy game for the ryanair chase at 33s. rouge vif i feel didn't do enough but i will admit the champion chase is pretty open and greanateen as a chance to join him as a second season improving chaser but the grand annual form isn't looking that strong so far .
Next review will be next week after which includes aintree and next weekends down royal meeting and the charlie hall as well.
24/7/20 a little update regarding a few horses who have run since jump racing returned and some trainer news as well.firstly,i was quite pleased aramon beat petit mouchoir and this was typical of the betting,a champion hurdle 5th goes of fav against a county hurdle 2nd and he also is rated 4lb higher and carried 7lb less,but it was aramon who won by 2l despite that.i did state imo epatante wasn't a outstanding winner and i like saint roi for next years champion hurdle as i rated the county hurdle hurdle highly so nice to see aramon boost the county hurdle form .i think aramon is a horse that will easily be dismissed but technically ,he took a 4.5l beating by saint roi,but gave him lots of weight so came out better on the ratings.with saint roi though,hes lightly raced and potentially more improvement compared to aramon to come next season .aramon will not surprise me if he gets placed at big odds and i'm certain mullins will not protect his hcap mark this season and go for the big Irish grade 1 hurdles with him fully tuned up each time.that grimes hurdle aramon won had a bigger than usual field size this year and some chasers entered as well, to get warmed up for some big summer chases i presume and grand annual winner chosen mate i thought was unusual to see in it but he ran downfield but as won a flat race since but i' unsure what they are doing with him.
paul nicholls is a trainer that i think as basically gave up with the festival these days. that's not to see he doesn't care,but the likes of mullins,elliott and henderson with there big owners like jp mac, gigginstown,rich etc can simply run a horse once all season and then wait for the festival i.e saint roi and dame de compagene ,or run them a lot without winning to get there hcap mark down or maintain it i.e sire de berlais .nicholls doesn't have that luxury really ,so it makes sense to go for the big prizes during the rest of the season .now owner jared Sullivan as made a decision to have his horses trained in the UK with nicholls requiring a few mullins horses and some maiden hurdlers as well,12 in total i think hes got.hes got 2 previous festival winners ,probably not going to win a top race again,but there are opportunities for them.i think the main reason jared Sullivan as returned back to nicholls,as he had silvi conti, sanctuaire and zarkandar in the past with him is,mullins as a lot of firepower with bigger owners like jp mac,rich and Mrs j Donnell and there simply isn't enough races in Ireland to keep all those big owners stars apart. i'm particularly interested how mullins is going to keep his best 2m hurdlers apart this season given different owners.i feel there is a gap in the graded 2m hurdle races in the UK that an decent Irish horse could exploit instead of running in tougher Irish grade 1 hurdles.the ones nicholls are getting are mainly 2m hurdlers like laurina,elegantine du seuil,dolicta and stormy Ireland as well as maiden hurdlers with potential.he also as next destination sent to him from a different owner and was 3rd in the 2018 ballymore hurdle but has had problems.
the galway festival gets underway soon and some top horses are been aimed there probably earlier than usual due to the missed opportunities after the festival for jumpers. galvin who as 2nd in the northern trust hcap chase is one elliott did mention for the galway plate and he gave him a easy win at killarney recently.with 118k on the table and lots of prize money missed at punchestown and fairyhouse,it no surprise to see some high rated horses and maybe more winter jumping types entered as i write this and i'm looking forward to the galway festival more than usual this year and hope to get some reliable speed ratings for the races.
9/5/20 Hopefully the jumps season of 20/21,although officially starts in early may but won't return until July at least,will not be effected as the way the 2020 flat season will be decimated .The the main season which starts around October time when the better horses start there season with the Cheltenham festival in mind.I have been keeping speed ratings of some sort for years now ,but I've finally got around to making reliable standard time for the main courses at least and with video replays as well will do sectional times and analyse.
UK racecourse over the years have done well to get more accurate information regarding the going and an rail movement which increases the distances.its quite hard to get accurate standards when the courses constantly moves the running rails so horse are more often than not running over further,by 1/2 a furlong on occasions as well. I've noticed though in the last season or two that certain courses they have slackened off again regarding the info with phrases like the "The home bend as been moved out 3 yards to provide fresh ground" then not stating how much further the distances have increased due to this.
getting the exact or as close as you can to the advertised distance is important as Just 15 yards of increase will take 1 second longer to run for a horse and 15 yards increase is quite small as in most cases its double that at least.in a 2 mile race they might go 15 yards extra but a 3 mile race might be 30 yards extra,thus it appears the 3m race as been run slower compared to the the 2m race.
i think on the whole the clock stoppers do a good job and electronic timing as well at some top course helps ,but there are still things that don't seem right.quite often the start of a race is were problems arise and timing from the first obstacle gives a different perspective.The 2020 supreme for example was run in 1.17 secs slower time than the champion hurdle but timing from the first its about 0.3 in the end,even doing a split screen replay will show epatante just beating the supreme winner ,so is epatante a 5 length faster horse than shishkin or just 1.5 lengths.quite often the start is the issue and it effects the final time.Races have different starts all the time,from standing starts,slow starts to were no jockey want to make the running,even starts were the one in front breaks away ok ,then the jockey slows it down immediately as he doesn't want to lead,starts were you see horses a bit away from the tape like 50 yards or so ,then when they run past the starting post and the timer as started the clock,they are already in a full stride.
You can look at times on the day and compare to races over the same distance and you might see one race 3 seconds faster but then when you view the replays you often see why ,a lot of the time it isn't down to ability, but due to the start ,so direct time comparison can lead to difficulties.you can look at race like the supreme v champion hurdle and conclude straight away how good the novices are compared to the experienced hurdlers ,but its often not that simple and that was also done under electronic timing,so even that as not helped that much.
The Irish courses have been tricky for me to get to grips with as the lack of information regarding rail alignment is the major issue .i will be keeping a eye on the top Irish course but i wont be applying any speed points to them.
Speed points are awarded of a scale or 20 or less.so a race that is the fastest of the day and 10 seconds of standard for example ,will get 20 points and the race which was 11 seconds of standard will get 15/16 points as they have ran a second slower which is 4 to 5 lengths depending on the ground,gdsf or faster is usually 5 lengths per second and soft ground or heavy is 4 seconds per length.
the standard are based on the racing post standards unless they are obviously wrong. I've looked at all the top tracks recently ,something i wished i had done years ago but final found the time to do it.this is because some standards are so lenient and others harsh.i suspected this as long ago as 2016 when Annie power set a new course record in the champion hurdle. douvan then ran extremely fast in the arkle. These races should be the fastest on day 1 but then in comparison to the novice hcap chase and ultima chase ,the difference was really wide.then last year when a plus tard (apt) won by 16 lengths, the time again was way still way of the arkles time,but it was the closest it had been since 2016,and so it proved with apt becoming a grade 1 horse.
the racing post never adjusted the standards for the 2m chase and hurdles on the old course despite the evidence they were lenient standards.when topspeed gives ratings,i look at the official rating of the horse and the rpr. Many 2m hurdle races on the old course,the topspeed figure was often similar to there or/rpr but over 2m5f hurdles ,the topspeed figures were low in comparison to the or/rpr .not every 2m5f hurdle race had poor horses for the class or were slowly run races,there was just too many of them to suggest something wasn't right.
if you divide the distance by furlongs so a 2m race is 16 furlongs ,the divide that by the standard eg. 3m50 or 230 seconds you get a secs per furlong average (spf) .an example could be 2m races, the spf could be 14.00 secs ,over 2m4f 14.20 secs and 3m 14.40 secs.at cheltenham ,2m5f hurdles according to the racing post are expected to run 5f longer and faster just to achieve the same topspeed figure as the 2m hurdlers.this clearly isn't right ,as race distances are increased,the horse have to run a bit slower to compensate like a 100 m sprinter can do 10 secs ,but he wouldn't be expected to do 40 secs over 400m.
so over the years,the Fred winter hurdle has been run way faster than the ballymore hurdle on the Wednesday of the festival and in 2019,i thought i spotted a potential champion hurdle horse in band of outlaws who went of fav against the triumph hurdle winner pentland hills at aintree,but he lost to him despite the 2019 triumph not being that fast .it was because the standards were so lenient for 2m and harsh for 2m5f. When looking back at Fred winters and ballymores/coral cups,the Fred winter was always faster bar the 2018 ballymore won by samcro. I always assumed the 2m5f races were more steadily run so the final time was effected and the 2m hurdle races were fast run to get a true reflection of ability using the clock.no ie adjusted it,the Fred winters are what they are ,ordinary 140ish hcaps which doesn't provide no future grade 1 winners like the ballymore does.hopefully i have adjusted the standards to something like they should be.this didn't just apply to cheltenham ,newbury ,ascot and other top courses had the same issues,certain race distances got high top speed ratings from the racing post and other didn't. In general,the 2m standards were lenient,2m4f standards were about right and 3m standards often harsh.some course like kempton i don't think i had to adjust anything as they seemed right.
The best scenarios were speed ratings/points work the best is when they highlight a lower class race ,most often a novice race and sometimes handicaps and also when a top class race hasn't done that well on the clock
in the 19/20 season,defi du seiul (dds) did well in winning the tingle creek and Clarence house chases.i backed dds in the jlt chase at the festival,but when i did the speed points after,it wasn't nothing special and slower than ryanair chase with the pace not being a reason.with the news altior was going up in trip,i think this was a reason connections went back to 2 miles with him as the 2 best officially jumpers in training were running over the 2m4f division.now the form of the tingle creek appears strong,he beat un des sceaux (uds) and waiting patently who were grade 1 winners. I was suspicious though how waiting patiently closed in at the end but still thought we had a new 2m champion.i noticed though after the time ,just 0.7 faster than the Henry viii novice chase,the first grade 1 chase o f the season for novice chasers.
Quite often in the past,the novice chase as been run in a faster time than the tingle creek.but then the road to cheltenham on racing UK did a split screen of the 2 races and there wasn't no slow starts or a slow pace in the tingle creek.given also the tingle creek horses carried 5 lbs more ,it worked out to about a 8 lengths superior performance than the novices.it should of been more like 20 lbs in theory .esprit du large was a horse i never heard of but i knew about nuge negra who was 3rd in the Fred winter a few years back,but they were just 140ish hurdlers.These pair drew well clear of the 3rd,so i though they could be good novices and if so ,then they had a good chance in the arkle on that performance. nuge negra from the flat though and a Fred winter placed horse just didn't feel right to me that he was a grade 1 chaser in the making.After thinking about it for a while,I concluded dds just wasn't a top 2m chaser and found himself in a weakened division with altior missing and uds now a old horse. chacun pour soi (cps) had beaten him over 2m at punchestown well enough also,although at the time i thought maybe it was one race too may at the end of the season and cps was fresher.
when nuge negra was beaten after by the eventual arkle 3rd ,i knew dds was vulnerable in the champion chase.there just seemed no reason into why he couldn't clock a faster time at sandown than the novices other than his ability would allow him.when he won the Clarence house ,he beat uds again,who was retired after,he was 12 after all and he simply was too old.the time wasn't great but that was effected by the early pace that day.however the 3rd marracudja ,got too close also and rated mid 140s and he went to mid 150s after and Dan skeleton was fuming.so on 2 occasions,he beat mid 140 horses on a formline and using the clock,not by 20 lengths that he should of probably done by.
I didn't bet in the champion chase,i couldn't decided which of the nicholls runners i like but i wished i'd of layed dds now.now reason was given by connections into why he ran poor after the stewards asked,but in reality he wasn't a champion chaser.I think geraghty saved him as well once he knew he couldn't win as i don't believe hes 13 lengths inferior at all.
the champion hurdle i'm not convinced epatante is a outstanding winner.she did nothing wrong and improved during the season,it's i just i feel next years 2m division will be strong making a repeat win harder.i feel abracadabras who is staying at 2m hurdling will giver her something to think about and i think Mullins as well will be trying to get the crown back.its basically been Henderson v mullins for ages now in this and jp mac as well dominating it.i feel there was that much talent in the novice division that ,they had to run them in the handicaps to avoid each other. i'm mainly talking about saint roi who is jp mac owned and mullins trained. jp mac was able to still win the champion hurdle despite his 2 previous winners not taking part.he had a back up and when it became clear buveur d'air (bda) was out for the season,it was his idea to go for the xmas hurdle ,not hendersons who wanted to go for a ascot hcap hurdle.when she won at newbury and kempton,henderson did fancy the 2nd horse he trained over her on both occasions.i feel jp mac will want other horses to be aimed for this as well. bda should be back but there's no telling how much ability he retains.
on a day when we were all gobsmacked about goshen unseating,it was no surprise to see burning victory's time 3.84 off the county hurdle.however when we take into account goshen .it would of took goshen to of won by at least 15 lengths to match it. goshen is 6-1 2nd fav whilst saint roi is 25-1. mullins also as saldier,sharjah ,concertista and aramon to consider as well. mullins will aim most of them at the morgiana ,matheson and Irish champion hurdle and they often take turns in beating each other.id like to see saint roi aimed at something like the wkd hurdle first time out as it will indicate mullins desire to go for the champion hurdle route with him as novice chasing is possible.
Gordon elliott hasn't won the champion hurdle yet ,but he abacadabras i feel gives him a great chance to do it.he travelled so strongly in the supreme and still can believe he lost.of course shishkin may not take to fences and he would be reverted to the champion hurdle also.
i like abacadabras 10-1 and saint roi 25-1 for the champion hurdle at this early stage .
the champion chase i feel may become a open division uds as retired and altior is now getting on,I've already spoke about dds so cps seems a obvious candidate but he looks fragile and you wouldn't be certain he'd make it again.i can't believe politologue will be come a dual winner of this at all.in comparison to the rsa chases time,he comes out with a 2 point lower speed point than champ which is unusual to see.the arkle is the obvious starting point,good race i thought but there's going to be complications with various trainers/owners on how to campaign there horses and to what the ultimate festival target will be.
henry de bromhead is a trainer i quite like and has done well over the last few years at the festival. Interestingly his graded horses do well ,but his handicappers don't run to there best on most occasions .He knew were to put honeysuckle despite winning the Irish champion hurdle.Its unfortunate the mares hurdle don't go that quick as the standard time of the mares hurdle trip in relation to the champion hurdle was clearly wrong but also the pace is never as good.using the darver star formline is what I've had to go by to suggest 3rd place at best in the champion hurdle
However i do feel he missed a trick in not putting a plus tard(apt) in the champion chase.to me,when he won the close brothers,he showed a lot of speed at the end to suggest he can handle 2m ok and so it proved as he ran over that trip all season.He failed at punchestown in the 3m novice chase after won by delta work.Its possible when he won over xmas ,the benefit of a recent run was the reason he beat cps ,after all,he had lost a grade 2 fto which is quite common under de bromhead trained horses and you cant underestimate the benefit of a recent run.he was supposed to run in the Dublin chase but the ground was to fast.I made a complete mess of the ryanair as grade 3 course winning or good runs at cheltenham handicappers do well in it,having opted for aso ,i failed to notice saint calvados as a good ew bet.
i wasn't keen on apt at all and i felt the ryanair wouldn't take that much winning but he failed to do so. I've listened to a few post cheltenham podcasts and many feel he should go up in trip,but i think he should be trained for 2m chases. Henry de bromhead likes to come to sandown but maybe altior will scare the Irish away and mullins i don't think will come over with cps
De bromheads problem is how does he separate put the kettle on (ptko) ,notebook and apt? notebook was the fav after all and had beat fakir d'oundaires (fdo) by the same distance ptko did.notebook may of had too much of hard race at leopardstown ,something de bromhead as stated.this as happened to monalee in the past so this gave him time off after his xmas run and he ran a big race in the gold cup.i think de bromhead will be wary of running him too often this time round.i can't see notebook been campaigned other than 2m chases .gigginstown do have Eclair De Beaufeu (edb) trained by elliott as another option in that division .quite what he does with ptko under a different ownership i don't know.the mares chase is going to be a option that might save him and spread his chances out to give him more success of winners.apt would go ryanair as well so all 3 avoid each other.so of the 3 ,notebook looks most realistic to end up in the champion chase.33-1 is a good price.he does play up at the start of his races so that needs to be taken into account.i think 2 horses could be possibly be aimed here are chosen mate and greaneteen .the grand annual is i think the weakest of the big 6 hcaps run at the festival.its a race were older horses do well as we have had a recent 12 yo winner of it. nicholls does tend to go for it, but mullins /elliott not so much.So this year we had a elliott 1-2 in it,his usual trick of a lightly raced unexposed types way better than they have shown and thrown in on the ratings.chosen mate and Eclair De Beaufeu (edb) were the 2 from him. edb as been beaten twice by notebook ,2.75 lengths and 13.5 lengths .however i do feel they were getting edb nicely handicapped for the Dublin racing festival and cheltenham. This i think is another example of big owners needing to use handicaps to keep there novices apart chosen mate have different owners and they seemed to think they had a graded horse after he won.im going to be interested in where he campaigns these 2 as well as abacadabras as champion hurdle and champion chaser contenders hes not renowned for.he has a habit of keeping graded horses in handicaps as well,something i will highlight later on.
greaneteen may of been 4th but nicholls didn't seem to care about his hcap rating.he went from 132 to 150,you only need to get to high 130s really to be guaranteed a run.he only won three class 3 races as well with him,so seemingly got him harshly handicapped in the process of not winning a decent race on the way.this is why i think nicholls has given up on the festival these days.the big owners like jp mac/gigginstown/ricci rich use mullins,elliott and henderson. They have the resources to get horses well handicapped for the festival by not bothering to even win a race all season or only win when it matters , i.e just before the festival to get a handicap mark or to win early on in the season and then put them away for the festival for 3 or 4 months. nicholls doesn't have the owners like those big 3 ,he never had gigginstown or ricci rich anyway and jp mac seems to of gone off him as well.he wins big races throughout the season though and as a result his horses get exposed more.I think if he thinks one is a future star,he wont be bothered in protecting his hcap mark. Topofthegame got touched off in the coral cup off 150,he could of easily not run him prior and protected his 142 mark,i think elliott would of done.He though won a 56k grade 3 hcap hurdle at sandown and nearly won the coral cup worth just 1k more .i do think nicholls operates in a way like I've described. greaneteen i get the impression he thinks highly off .It would not surprise me if he went for the shloer chase with him fto and take on dds and test the water with him.hes 66-1 for the champion chase.
so i like notebook at 33-1 and greaneteen at 66-1
the stayers hurdle I'm probably getting carried away with it now,but the likelyhood of 3 festival hcaps producing 3 grade 1 festival winners the following year or any years are remote.i will be happy if just one can do it at those odds.As I've mentioned, i feel the big owners and trainers have got that much lightly raced potentially top class horses they had to go for the hcaps to maximise there wins so saint roi for the county instead of supreme as jp mac had a runners in it and mullins also had 1 from jp mac in it as well as other owners.chosen mate/edb for the grand annual instead of the arkle as gigginstown had the fav in the arkle,but this race is the one i feel as the most success of a handicapper winning it.
the stayers hurdle hasn't had a good winner since thistlecrack in 2016.often the pertemps final is run in a quicker time.in 2018 the pace was so slow in the stayers hurdle the final time was badly hurt so its not a simple case of comparing times. this years stayers had a good pace and if you split screen the 2 races,you will see the pertemps leaders jumping the hurdle as the last few of the stayers have already jumped it.so given a good pace,why wasn't the final time good?well when a 146 horse wins it ,its not hard to see why.
The best thing about this though is lisnagar oscar fell in a pertemps qualifier ,so he went for the cleeve and ran a decent 3rd ,so they went for this.Has he got close to paisley park in the cleeve hurdle ,the handicapper didn't go overboard and realised paisley park hadn't run to his best otherwise he would of had to go 160s with him. This still left the door open off 146 for a pertemps final as there was still 2 or 3 qualifiers left. Ronald pump in 2nd had won a qualifier but on 156 would of been top weight in the pertemps so they went for this instead.so 2 pertemps horses do a 1-2 in the stayers hurdle.
In the pertemps itself,we had a elliott 1-2,nothing unusual there in a festival handicap.sire de berlais (sdb) as only ever won 2 races before,a french race before elliott trained him and the 2018 pertemps. The trick was to qualify for the pertemps just about but it didn't got plan,he came 9th in the leopardstown qualifier so had to come to Warwick to qualify,and at the same time not get to close to the winner.so form comments like "stayed on from 2 out,never troubled leaders","some late headway,kept on" and "ran on under hands and heels into never threatening 4th" just highlighted the tender rides given to him to protect his handicap mark.the did it last year "ran on into never threatening 6th" in the leopardstown qualifier of 142,ran of 145 and won and didn't run in between just to protect his hcap mark,jp mac owned so again,big owner had the resources to do it.Has he was deemed to of run to 153,they ran him this year off 152 an job done by 1/2 length.
I though think they should of been brave enough to go for the stayers hurdle.given the times of the 2 races,he would of won and the pertemps wasn't faster because of a better pace either,the 3m hurdling division is just weak. elliott surely will go for the stayers next year with him,hes on 158 now and surely cant protect that hcap mark no more .hes 16-1 and when you see some of the shorter priced runners in it,many of them wont run in it and you even have bda and goshen quoted at 20-1 just behind him to highlight how much of a muddle of who runs in this race next year.he could of ran sdb in the stayers and the storyteller in the pertemps this year and won both!
The Albert Bartlett as produced the last 3 winners of the stayers paisley park was only 9th and lisnagar oscar was 5th,penhill did win both.thyme hill would be a ideal candidate and 16-1 for him as well offers good value as hes unlikely to go chasing and hobbs as said that's his desire.paisley park is 7-1 fav then you have honeysuckle ,benie des deiux and envoi allen in the betting with a strong likelyhood all 3 wont come here ,leaving lisnagar oscar and Ronald pump to do it again.My feeling is sdb and thyme hill will get here and be single figures odds, if not one of them fav as well.also something ma be lurking at big odds that could improve,so look out for those 140ish handicappers over 3m hurdles
so i like sire de berlais at 16-1 and thyme hill 16-1
the ryanair chase i think mullins and de bromhead will have decision to make here apt and monalee could both run here.the key to monalee seems to be rests between runs as de bromhead as worked out,however i cant work out if this trip or longer is best fro him.hes ran in this in the past but he didn't get the rest he needs to run to his best in 2019.The owner also has minella indo who will go for the gold cup so will probably want monalee to come here.Mullins will surely aim min here again and possible alloha as i'm convince now he isn't a strong stayer,minella indo just keeps beating him.Its the obvious race fro samcro as well as gigginstown will want to win there own race,unless he pulls the sponsorship due to ryanair collapsing!!dds i think will end up here,i'm convinced he will lose the tingle creek and then go for 2m4f races after.
the trouble is with this 2m4f division is ,its not geared up fro genuine 2m4f types in the early part of the season.the john durkan is in November ,but at xmas and the Dublin racing festival you have no 2m4f grade 1 chases,its all 2m1f or 3m at both meetings.in the UK ,its the ascot chase in February that is the first grade 1 at this trip. That's why horses who ran in the king george or saville chase have done well.
you often find form one year to the next you get certain types who do well in this.this year it was 2m to 2m4f types in min,saint calvados and apt but in other years the 2m4f to 3m types have done probably the better overall. frodon and aso 1-2 in 2019 were 2m4f to 3m types. frodon set out to make it a good test and the road to respect was 3rd as well who had 3m form.the likes of uds and footpad were 2m to 2m4f types and it was too much of a stamina test for them.when the race is dominated in numbers by staying types,that type will usually win and often get the 2nd and 3rd as well.if its dominated by numbers by the 2m to 2m4f types,that group will often win and 2nd and 3rd as well so 2019 and 2020 were contrasting years
Also cheltenham stage plenty of 2m4/5f grade 3 hcaps during the season,betvictor god cup,caviar gold cup,new years day,one of trials day and the silver trophy at the April meeting as well as the brown advisory and northern trust at the festival.the ones outside the festival have had over the years a influence on this race.saint calvados is the latest one following on from frodon and aso in 2019.imperial commander also in 2009 was one. 2m4f types who don't try the tingle creek /clarence house or king george/betfair chase only have these big hcaps to go for in the winter period.the ryanair as often favoured genuine 2m4f horses at grade 3 level rather than grade 1 performers who have ran at 2m or 3m. saint calvados would of been another big price winner and was unlucky. aso was 33-1 and frodon 9-2 from 7s on the day,he had won the cotswold though so he was never going to be double figure odds.these type of horses go under the radar in the betting and often place at big odds.
2021 ryanair i think will look like this and going in betting order - min ,alloha ,samcro, monalee,reel steel,dds,melon im thinking apt will go champion chase route,i suppose a lot will depend on what altior does as well,if he wins the tingle creek well or if he flops, a few trainers might consider changing there plans ,apt and dds the most obvious candidates .
simply the betts and imperial aura would be the obvious handicap types,although i think Kim bailey is more cautious of how good imperial aura is really.due to a slow pace in the brown advisory,i couldn't truly rate simply the betts properly .they are both 25-1. cepage is a 2m4f cheltenham grade 3 type,i can't believe venitia williams went for the ultima with him instead of the brown advisory.
i like alloha at 12-1 and cepage no odds are good prospects fro this
the gold cup slow run race in 2020 meaning a more bunched finish.time was the fastest but its usually way faster than the fox hunters chase.I backed lostintranslation but i ain't sure he stayed it that well.he travelled well and he kind of reminds me of cue card more than native river.He has 2m4f pace but i suspect tizzard will want another crack at the gold cup has he although he as alternatives like native river and copperhead .He did win the ryanair with cue card but later went for the longer trips.I cant really see him dropping lostintranslation in trip as he will go for the betfair and king george. The 1-2 will be aimed for it and then we have champ of the rsa form.Its hard for a rsa to achieve a higher speed figure than the champion chase run on the same day.this year on my ratings it did,this was more down to the fact the champion chase was weak in the end,but i cant discredit the rsa at all.can we really have another strong rsa in succession ,the 2-3 from 2019 have turned out top class with the winner sidelined and this years 1-2-3 look good also.I actually like minella indo more as champ seems more complicated.He as fell,he as won when not looked like winning and he isn't the best jumper as well,even in hendersons own words.in fact it wouldn't surprise me if he ran in the stayers hurdle after jumping poor in his final race before the festival and they change course. henderson has santini to fall back on although jp mac wouldn't have a likely runner. minella indo is a Albert Bartlett winner and a strong stayer. topofthegame (tofg) should be nicholls main hope if all goes well at newbury. al boum photo (abp) as done nothing wrong and a good chance to do the treble .m feeling is we will have 4 different winners of the betfair,king george,saville and Irish gold cup.the Irish gold up is not ideal being too close to the gold cup and isn't the strongest of grade 1 chases in many years.clan des obeaux as a strong chance also of a 3rd king george but wont run in this.i think de bromhead will tr to win the saville chase with minella indo.
this means we have strong chance of a gold cup winner without a grade 1 win or even running in a grade 1 that season again.its probably best to win lesser races in the build up then to lose a grade 1 which almost proves you won't be good enough like monalee did when 2nd in the saville chase. abp was a tramore listed winner for the 2nd year running beating santini who win a listed and grade 2 on the way.I can't see mullins changing tactics and henderson may do this with champ as he isn't suited to kempton so sandown and cheltenham like he did with santini. santini may be tricky for him to palce as i don't think hes keen on kempton also.the betfair would be the most obvious race early on and maybe the denman chase after
nicholls as said totg isn't the most robust horse so he wont run that often,Hennessy first then i wouldn't know,if he did win the hennessy ,the king george would be obvious but maybe saville chase to avoid his other runner or simply run him in the cotswold or denman. at this stage i think minella indo at 14-1 because i think he will go for the saville chase after a debut in a grade 2 somewhere ,then rest till the gold cup.apart form abp i can see the odds of man runners behind him in the beting changing a lot during the season,lostintranslation wins another betfair his odds go down and santini if he loses it goes the other way or vice versa,and however loses will probably win next time out in a grade 2 ,whilst the winner might be tempted to go for another grade 1 but lose that. vinndication at 50-1 might be the dark horse. Kim bailey talks highly of him and i would expect him go to the the charlie hall fto. He was patient with him last season.
so i like minella indo at 14-1 and vinndication at 50-1
That the 5 big races done and i will update during the season to look at the progression ,no doubt a few will get injured also in the meantime and have time off or simply miss the season.