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Bennett, Julie; Owyang, Michael T.; and Vermann, E. Katarina. "Regional Gasoline Price Dynamics," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Third Quarter 2021, pp. 289-314. https://doi.org/10.20955/r.103.289-314
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A large literature has argued that gasoline prices respond more rapidly to increases in oil prices than to decreases in oil prices. Moreover, some of this literature has found heterogeneous asymmetry in gas price responses across cities. Here, we reconsider the causes of heterogeneous asymmetric pass-through. Consistent with the previous literature, we find heterogeneity in the magnitudes of asymmetric pass-through across cities. We also find a large number of cities that exhibit no asymmetries. We then examine whether heterogeneous asymmetry results from city-level differences in (i) the demand for gasoline, (ii) the supply of gasoline (proxied by the distance from Cushing, Oklahoma), or the cities' fiscal environments (proxied by the level of taxes). We examine whether these characteristics affect either the magnitudes of the asymmetries or the presence of asymmetries. While we find that city-level characteristics cannot (robustly) explain variation in the magnitudes of the asymmetries, they do seem to affect the probability that a city experiences asymmetric pass-through.
Bennett, Julie; Owyang, Michael T. "On the Relative Performance of Inflation Forecasts," Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Second Quarter 2022, pp. 131-48. https://doi.org/10.20955/r.104.131-48
Inflation expectations constitute important components of macroeconomic models and monetary policy rules. We investigate the relative performance of consumer, professional, market-based, and model-based inflation forecasts. Consistent with the previous literature, professional forecasts most accurately predict one-year-ahead year-over-year inflation. Both consumers and professionals overestimate inflation over their respective sample periods. Market-based forecasts as measured by the swap market breakeven inflation rates significantly overestimate actual inflation; Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities market breakeven inflation rates exhibit no significant bias. We find that none of the forecasts can be considered rationalizable under symmetric loss. We also find that each forecast has predictive information that is not encompassed within that of another.
“Asymmetric Loss and Breakeven Inflation Forecasts” with Michael Owyang
“Improving College Student Survey Response Rates: Evidence from a Freshmen Dining Hall Survey” with Antonio Drakes
“MLB Fan Attendance Trends During the Steroid Era” with David Martin
"Pension or 401(k)? Retirement Plan Trends in the U.S. Workplace" (with Michael Owyang and Brooke Hathhorn), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis On the Economy Blogpost, March 2025.
“FOMC Actions and Recent Movements in Five-Year Inflation Expectations” (with Michael Owyang), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis On the Economy Blogpost, July 2022.
“What do Financial Markets Say About Future Inflation,” (with YiLi Chien), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis On the Economy Blogpost, June 2022.
“The Large Gap in Stock Market Participation Between Black and White Households,” (with YiLi Chien), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopsis, March 2022.
“Breaking Down the Contributors to High Inflation,” (with YiLi Chien), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis On the Economy Blogpost, March 2022.
“Challenges in Dating the End of Recessions,” (with Michael Owyang and Ana Galvao), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis On the Economy Blogpost, May 2021.
“What Drives Changes in Inflation?” (with YiLi Chien), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis On the Economy Blogpost, May 2021.
“State Government Expenditures by Party Affiliation,” (with YiLi Chien), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Regional Economist, Q2 2021.
“Are State Political Leanings and Government Spending Correlated?” (with YiLi Chien), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis On the Economy Blogpost, April 2021.
“How Well Do Consumers Forecast Inflation?” (with Michael Owyang), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis On the Economy Blogpost, March 2021.
“More Households Face Food Scarcity During COVID-19,” (with YiLi Chien), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis On the Economy Blogpost, June 2020.
“The Value of $600 Across States Hit Hardest by COVID-19,” (with YiLi Chien), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, April 2020.
“Will Workers Want To Be Laid Off?” (with YiLi Chien), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, April 2020.
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“The Wage Bills of COVID-19,” (with YiLi Chien), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, April 2020.
“COVID-19: What do FREDcast Users Think about Economic Growth?” (with Michael Owyang and Hannah Shell), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis On the Economy Blogpost, March 2020.
“What are Americans Consuming More Of?” (with YiLi Chien), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis On the Economy Blogpost, March 2020.
“Same Target, Different Economies: A Cross-Country Analysis of Inflation,” (with YiLi Chien), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Regional Economist, Q1 2020.
“Decomposing the Low PCE Inflation Rate,” (with YiLi Chien), Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Economic Synopses, October 2019.
Bokun, Kathryn O.; Jackson, Laura E., Kliesen, Kevin L., and Owyang, Michael T. “FRED-SD: A Real-Time Database for State-Level Data with Forecasting Applications.” International Journal of Forecasting, January-March 2023, Vol. 39, No. 1, pp. 279-297 .
Owyang, Michael T.; Shell, Hannah; and Soques, Daniel. “The Evolution of Regional Beveridge Curves.” Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Working Paper 2022-037A, November 2022.