Working papers
The Foreign Currency Fisher Channel: Evidence from Households 2025 (with Győző Gyöngyösi and Emil Verner)
conditionally accepted, Review of Financial Studies
This paper studies how households adjust consumption and labor supply to a large revaluation of foreign currency-denominated household debt. Our analysis uses detailed household-level data during Hungary’s large depreciation in 2008. Relative to similar local currency debtors, foreign currency debtors reduce consumption expenditures one-for-one with increased debt service, consistent with a foreign currency Fisher channel of the depreciation. Foreign currency debtors reduce both the quantity and quality of expenditures, consistent with a “flight from quality.” Debt revaluation does not affect overall labor supply, but there is a small adjustment toward foreign income streams and a substantial increase in home production.
The cost channel of monetary policy: evidence from euro area firm-level survey data 2025 (with Ugo Albertazzi, Annalisa Ferrando and Sofia Gori)
This paper explores empirically the cost channel of monetary policy transmission during the recent period of monetary policy tightening in the euro area. We combine unique data on firms’ selling price expectation from the Survey on the access to finance of enterprises (SAFE), information on firms’ borrowing from the euro area-wide credit register (AnaCredit) and ECB monetary policy surprises. Firms revise upwards their one-year-ahead selling price expectations following monetary announcements in a tightening cycle and this effect increases in firms’ working capital exposure. The paper provides supportive evidence on the existence of a cost channel of monetary policy, adding to our understanding of monetary policy transmission to firms in the euro area.
Spillover effects in firms' bank choice 2025 (with Attila Lindner and Pálma Filep-Mosberger)
In this paper, we study firm‐bank relationship formation. Combining domestic inter‐firm network data from value‐added tax declarations and credit registry for Hungary, we estimate the spillover effects in bank choice, identifying from variation on the bank level. Having at least one peer in the network who has an existing loan with a bank increases the probability that the firm will borrow a new loan from the same bank. We provide suggestive evidence that the estimated spillover effect is due to firm‐to‐firm information transmission about banks. According to our results, firms can learn about banking practices from their peers but they also point to financial stability concerns in the event of shocks to domestic supply chains.
Work in progress
Production networks and wage setting
The long term impact of transitory shocks on firm borrowing 2019 (with Győző Gyöngyösi)
This paper studies the long-term borrowing behavior of firms exposed to a large and unexpected financial shock. Using census and credit registry data, we examine how a balance sheet shock stemming from the revaluation of foreign currency debt during the 2008 Hungarian currency crisis affects borrowing decisions in the decade after the crisis. Our identification strategy relies on the comparison of unhedged Swiss franc borrowers to domestic currency borrowers. Firms exposed to the revaluation of outstanding debt are less likely to obtain a new loan up to seven years after the shock. If they do so, it is less likely that they borrow from their pre-crisis bank. We provide evidence that our results are not explained by treated firms' weak balance sheet after the shock or banks' unwillingness to lend to these firms. Instead, our results suggest that the change in attitude towards bank credit explains the limited borrowing of exposed firms.