Research

The welfare implications of the China Shock across US States and Skill Groups 

Abstract. I build a dynamic quantitative spatial trade model with firm and worker heterogeneity, mobility frictions, and short-run unemployment to quantify the regional and distributional effects of the China Shock across U.S. states. The baseline model implies an average welfare gain (0.1%) but substantial heterogeneity across skill groups. Average welfare gains are 0.01% for unskilled workers —who lose in 17 of 50 states—versus 0.31% for skilled workers, who lose in only 7 states. The model predicts an average increase of 0.78% in the skill premium, with more exposed states experiencing larger increases. Finally, I find long-run gains in every state for both types of workers. 

Mind the app: do European deposits react to digitalisation? , with Nadya Wildmann , Beatrice Scheubel , Livio Stracca and Luisa Fascione . ECB Working Paper, 2025 

Abstract. The March 2023 banking turmoil has intensified discussions whether social media and the digitalisation of finance have become significant factors in driving severe deposit outflows. We introduce the concept of deposits-at-risk and utilize quantile regressions for disentangling determinants of stressed outflows at the lowest tail of the distribution. For a sample of large banks directly supervised by the ECB, our findings indicate that an increased use of online banking services leads to a small amplification of extreme deposit outflows, but this effect is not further exacerbated by the availability of a mobile banking app. Online banking use and availability of a mobile app do not have a causal effect on deposit volatility in normal times. Finally, social media are impactful only in idiosyncratic cases. 

Technology Diffusion at the Top, Firm-to-Firm Technology Transfers and the Welfare Gains from Openness. Second Year Paper, Boston University, 2023.

Work in progress