"Commodity Prices, Sovereign Risk, and Macroeconomic Stability" (Job Market Paper)
I study how fluctuations in commodity prices affect interest rates in commodity-exporting emerging economies (EMEs), and how fiscal rules shape their response to such movements. Using a panel of EMEs, I find that increases in commodity prices reduce interest rate spreads, although the magnitude of this effect varies with fiscal rules. Motivated by this empirical evidence, I develop a sovereign default model with endogenous fiscal policy governed by a cyclically adjusted budget balance (CAB) rule. The model features two sectors, one of which exports commodities whose prices are subject to exogenous international fluctuations. These prices follow a regime-switching autoregressive process that captures prolonged booms and busts. Using the model calibrated to Chile, I show that during booms, interest rates fall and become less sensitive to commodity price movements, whereas during busts they rise and become more responsive to these fluctuations, reflecting tighter borrowing constraints and higher default-risk expectations. Finally, by comparing different degrees of fiscal discipline under the CAB rule, I show that stricter rules lower debt levels and reduce the volatility of the trade balance and government spending.
"Sovereign Default under Commodity Price Uncertainty: The Role of Structural Shocks in Metal Markets"
Using a structural VAR (SVAR), I study how structural shocks to copper prices affect sovereign spreads, comparing the responses of copper exporters and importers.
"Government Transfers and Financial Incentives on Retirement Choices"
I evaluate the effects of government transfer programs on retirement decisions using quasi-experimental methods (difference-in-differences) with large-scale micro-level administrative data.
"Fiscal Sustainability of the Sovereign Pension Reserve Fund: Financial Projections 2020-2050" (with L. González), Fiscal Studies Series N° 2020/10, Ministry of Finance, Chile, 2020. (In Spanish) Media Coverage.
"A Projection Model for the Solidarity Pension System" (with L. González), Annual Public Finance Report 2019, Chapter 4, pages 78-92, Ministry of Finance, Chile, 2018. (In Spanish)
"Assessing the Financial Sustainability of the Collective Pension System" (with L. González), Annual Public Finance Report 2018, Chapter 4, pages 78-97, Ministry of Finance, Chile, 2017. (In Spanish)
"Sick-Leave Insurance in Chile: Diagnosis and Policy Proposals" (with I. Poblete), Working Papers Series N°10, Social Security Regulatory Authority, Chile, 2017. (In Spanish)
"An Analysis of Mental Health-Related Leaves of Absence from Work in Chile", Policy Reports, Social Security Regulatory Authority, Chile, 2016. (In Spanish)