I research the economics of peace and prosperity, with a focus on spatial relationships. Methodologically, I combine economic theory, laboratory experiments, and observational studies.
2024 (w/ Lucas Rentschler) How policing incentives affect crime, measurement, and justice. Just Accepted at Economic Inquiry. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3628595
2024 (w/ Bart J. Wilson) Territory in the State of Nature. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization. DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2024.01.032.
2023 (with Lucas Rentschler). Criminal justice from a public choice perspective: an introduction to the special issue. Public Choice. DOI: 10.1007/s11127-023-01089-2.
2022 (with Erik O. Kimbrough). The supply side determinants of territory. Journal of Peace Research. DOI : 10.1177/00223433221075006
2021. Agglomeration and the extent of the market: theory and experiment on spatially coordinated exchange. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 190, 838–850. DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2021.08.009
2020. Political institutions, resources, and war: theory and evidence from ancient Rome. Explorations in Economic History, 76, 101324. DOI: 10.1016/j.eeh.2020.101324
2019. The scope of political jurisdictions and violence: theory and evidence from Africa. Public Choice, DOI: 10.1007/s11127-019-00763-8
Trade and the rise of ancient Greek city-states. https://ssrn.com/abstract=3917397.
An econometric model of ethnic maps and evaluation of the endogenous areal unit problem. http://ssrn.com/abstract=4091833.
Peace and its correlates in the ancient world (w/ Patrick Fitzsimmons). https://ssrn.com/abstract=4724990.
A practical public goods mechanism and policing application. https://ssrn.com/abstract=4804107.
The endogenous nature of war and its economic consequences (w/ Dan Stephenson). https://ssrn.com/abstract=4869123.
Work in Progress:
A unified microeconomic analysis of crime-concentration: observation, theory, and experiment.
What causes crime concentration? To answer this question, we first examine the micro details of the 1967 riots in Detroit, one of the largest in American history and a major motivator for socio-psychological theories of crime. Based on our observations, we develop an alternative spatial-economic model where civilians choose where to commit crimes while officers choose where to patrol. We then perform a laboratory experiment that examines whether our mechanism generates endogenous `hotspots' in a virtual policing-civilian environment. This unified approach exploits methodological comparative advantages in helping to understand the general mechanisms of crime concentration.
A spatial economic model of war between great powers.
In this paper, we develop a model of the spatial extent and intensity of war. We first motivate our analysis around new stylized facts about the major war in two different eras: the Second Punic War (218--201 BCE) and the Hundred Years War (1337--1453 CE). We then provide analytic results about how battles are generated and observed, how their frequency depends on distances to both bases, and how production is affected. Our model generates battle maps and distance relationships that qualitatively match our historical observations, and also suggests inherent limits on the ability to predict the locations and costs of conflict.
Homicide and economic development in England in the long run.
This paper integrates insights from the microeconomics of crime into a model of long-run development, bridging the "Long Decline in Violence" with the "Great Escape from Poverty." Our theoretical framework demonstrates how conflict detrimentally impacts production, while reduced productivity, in turn, fuels more conflict---homicide, legal capacity, and overall wealth are general equilibrium outcomes. Utilizing this model, we shed light on several historical puzzles, including the historical disconnect between wages and per-capita wealth in England. Additionally, we use our model to better reconstruct homicide rates in England dating back to 1550.
