Job Market Paper
Job Market Paper
Abstract: This paper develops a high-dimensional local projection framework for estimating impulse responses in the presence of many potential controls. While existing approaches often rely on strong sparsity assumptions, empirical macroeconomic applications frequently involve dense environments where such assumptions may be restrictive. Building on the Orthogonal Greedy Algorithm with high-dimensional AIC (OGA+HDAIC), I propose a double-selection procedure that separately addresses the shock equation and the outcome equation within local projections. The method accommodates both sparse and structured dense coefficient patterns and is adapted to time series settings using functional dependence tools. Under suitable conditions, the estimator achieves asymptotic normality with HAC standard errors. Simulation evidence demonstrates that the method delivers reliable coverage when the observed shock is contaminated by components linked to the control set, and where richer controls help absorb that contamination. Empirical applications illustrate its feasibility in both low- to moderate-dimensional settings and high-dimensional macroeconomic datasets.
Keywords: local projection, high-dimensional covariates, double/debiased machine learning
The Review of Economics and Statistics, [link] [arXiv] [Replication Data]
Abstract
We propose a new inference method in high-dimensional regression models and high-dimensional IV regression models. The method is shown to be valid without requiring the exact sparsity or Lp sparsity conditions. Simulation studies demonstrate superior performance of this proposed method over those based on the LASSO or the random forest, especially under less sparse models. We illustrate an application to production analysis with a panel of Chilean firms.
Abstract
We propose a method for constructing upper and lower bounds on the standard error of a parameter estimated from moment conditions obtained across different samples. Both bounds are derived by exploiting sharp distributional bounds. While this distributional characterization is conceptually appealing, the resulting optimization problem is often numerically challenging due to its non-convex nature. To address this practical difficulty, we complement the distributional characterization with two tractable approaches: (1) explicit sharp bounds when no information about correlations is available, and (2) computationally feasible sharp bounds in more general settings with no or partial correlational information. The latter can be obtained by solving a simple semi-definite program. Finally, we demonstrate the usefulness of our method through three empirical applications in macroeconomics and microeconomics.