I am a macroeconomist at the Directorate General Monetary Policy at the European Central Bank.
See here (PDF).
European Central Bank
Sonnemannstraße 20
60314 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
johannes.poschl@ecb.europa.eu
Primary: macroeconomics
Secondary: corporate finance, household finance
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Sovereign default model
A simple sovereign default model in the spirit of Arellano (2008), solved with the endogenous grid method of Jang and Lee. 2026, "A Generalized Endogenous Grid Method for Default Risk Models." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking.
Banking panic model
A simple banking panic model in the spirit of Gertler and Kiyotaki. 2015. "Banking, Liquidity, and Bank Runs in an Infinite Horizon Economy." American Economic Review 105 (7): 2011–43.
Banking panic risk and macroeconomic uncertainty, with Jakob Guldbæk Mikkelsen
Journal of Money, Credit & Banking, 2024
We explore the interactions between banking panics and uncertainty shocks. To do so, we build a model of a production economy with a banking sector. In the model, financial constraints of banks can lead to disastrous banking panics. We find that a higher probability of a banking panic increases macroeconomic uncertainty. Vice versa, a shock to macroeconomic uncertainty increases the likelihood of a banking panic. This banking panic channel amplifies the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks. A counter-cyclical capital buffer increases welfare by reducing the likelihood of a banking panic.
The business cycle dynamics of firms' debt maturity vary across the firm size distribution. Small and medium-sized firms have a more pro-cyclical debt maturity than large firms. This paper explores the determinants of firms' debt maturity, and the importance of firms' debt maturity for their investment and leverage dynamics. To do so, it embeds a maturity choice in a model of firm investment and financing. Firms shorten debt maturity during times when default risk premiums are high and their internal funds are scarce. This behavior is consistent with both the life cycle and business cycle dynamics of firms' debt maturity. Endogenous debt maturity helps firms to deleverage faster in response to negative shocks.
We study the interaction between occasionally binding financial constraints in the traditional (retail) banking sector and banking panics in the shadow banking sector. Shadow banking panics occur when retail banks choose not to roll over their lending to shadow banks. Occasionally binding financial constraints of retail banks increase the likelihood of and amplify boom-bust dynamics around such shadow banking panics. The model can quantitatively match the dynamics of key macroeconomic and financial variables around the US financial crisis. We quantify the impact of wholesale funding market interventions akin to those implemented by the Federal Reserve in 2008, finding that they reduced the fall in output by about half a percentage point. The timing of this intervention matters: an intervention before the banking panic would have been more effective and might even have avoided the panic.
Sovereign credit risk, monetary policy, and the role of financial intermediaries, with Ivan Shaliastovich and Ram Yamarthy
U.S. monetary policy significantly impacts sovereign credit risk and financial intermediaries play an important role. Using market-based measures of intermediary stress and confidential dealer-country-level sovereign CDS positions, we show that a decline in intermediary risk-taking capacity prior to FOMC announcements amplifies the sensitivity of sovereign spreads to U.S. monetary policy shocks. A general equilibrium model of the world economy explains these findings through occasionally-binding intermediary borrowing constraints that magnify sovereign default risk movements. The model suggests that credit spread movements in response to monetary policy are driven by an intermediation premium, which creates spillovers to both low and high-risk countries.
Noisy credit cycles, with Eddie Gerba and Danilo Leiva-León
A previous draft of this paper circulated under the title When credit expansions become troublesome: The story of investor sentiments
We decompose fluctuations in stock prices into news and noise shocks and estimate their effects on corporate credit. Initially, both shocks lead to a credit boom, but only a noise shock results in a subsequent credit bust. The two shocks account for a large fraction of the forecast error variance of credit and credit-to-GDP ratios at longer horizons. They have a stronger impact when credit spreads are low. Adding defaultable long-term debt to an otherwise standard macroeconomic model with a financial sector allows the model to replicate these empirical findings.
Recent crises have emphasized the tail risks present in corporate credit markets. Using credit default swap (CDS) data across maturities, we document two patterns. First, while the CDS term structure is generally upward sloping, financially constrained firms exhibit a negative slope. Second, shorter-term spreads display greater sensitivity to aggregate risk, a pattern driven by the expected loss component. To understand these findings, we construct a dynamic model of firm behavior where corporations finance investment using short and long-term debt. The model suggests that dis-investment by constrained firms amplifies stress and plays an important role in term structure dynamics.
This study investigates the effect of the large shock to energy prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine on bank credit to firms. To isolate the causal effect of the shock, it compares bank lending to high-energy-intensive firms to that of similar low-energy-intensive firms. Following the shock, bank credit to high-energy-intensive firms persistently declined, while their interest rates on new loans rose and other loan terms tightened. Across the risk distribution, safer firms reduced their utilization of outstanding credit lines and paid unchanged interest rates on new bank loans, while riskier firms borrowed at higher interest rates.
The consumption effects of household financial distress, with Florian Exler
Solving endogenous default models: A Taylor projection approach, with Oskar Arnt Juul
The heterogeneous transmission of monetary policy to household credit (November 2025)
Do banks manage their flood risk exposures? Evidence from the Danish credit registry (December 2022)
Flood risk discounts in the Danish housing market (Oktober 2021)
The effects of the corona shock on the banking sector and the real economy (June 2020)
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