Fast and Slow Arbitrage: The Predictive Power of Capital Flows for Factor Returns
(with Xi Dong and Namho Kang), forthcoming in The Review of Financial Studies.
Winner of 2019 Crowell Memorial Prize (third prize), PanAgora Asset Management.
Persistent but not transient aggregate capital flows to hedge and mutual funds strongly predict monthly factor returns out-of-sample. Theory & evidence that this effect stems from active fund managers’ capital constraints.
Abstract | Internet appendix
Abstract
We document that persistent aggregate capital flows to hedge and mutual funds predict monthly factor returns with an out-of-sample R2 reaching 6.6%. Transient flows display no such power despite being more predictable. We show—both empirically and theoretically—that persistent flows’ distinctive predictive power stems from active fund managers’ capital constraints. As a result, managers invest persistent, but not transient, capital flows into factor trading strategies, leading to factor-level predictability and factor momentum. Our key insight is that capital-constrained managers account for both current and anticipated future capital flows in the arbitrage sector, thereby incorporating the dynamics of capital into their strategies.
Uncertainty about what is in the price
(with Daniel Schmidt), forthcoming in the Journal of Financial Economics.
How to determine whether one’s private information about a stock has already been priced in by the market? Theory & evidence that its novelty/staleness can be assessed based on recent stock price movements.
Abstract | Internet appendix | INSEAD Knowledge article
Abstract
A critical question facing speculators contemplating to trade on private information is whether their signal has already been priced in by the market. In our model, speculators assess the novelty of their information based on recent price movements, and market makers are aware that speculators might be trading on stale news. An asymmetric response to past price movements ensues: after price increases, buy volume – because it may result from stale news trading – has a lower price impact than sell volume (and vice versa after price decreases). Consequently, return skewness is negatively related to lagged returns. We find strong support for these and other predictions using a comprehensive sample of US stocks.
Firm R&D and Financial Analysis: How Do They Interact?
(with Jim Goldman), The Journal of Financial Intermediation, 53 (2023).
Theory & evidence that firms’ R&D efforts and investors’ analyses of their prospects are mutually reinforcing. This feedback effect helps explaining why innovative ecosystems such as that in the Silicon Valley are challenging to set up.
Abstract | Internet Appendix
Abstract
This paper demonstrates, theoretically and empirically, that firms’ research and development (R&D) efforts and investors’ analyses of their prospects are mutually reinforcing. Entrepreneurs attempt more research when financiers are better informed about projects’ profitability because they expect financiers to provide more funding to successful projects. Conversely, financiers collect more information about projects when entrepreneurs undertake more R&D because the opportunity cost of missing out on successful projects is then higher. Two natural experiments confirm that this interaction occurs and suggest that it contributes to about one third of the total effect of a policy designed to stimulate R&D. Overall, the analysis suggests that policies aimed at promoting R&D – such as research subsidies or tax breaks – have a multiplier effect owing to the induced improvement in capital efficiency. As a result, those policies can be rendered more effective by coupling them with other policies designed to increase capital efficiency. The feedback effect that we document also helps explaining why innovative ecosystems such as that in the Silicon Valley are challenging to set up.
Network Centrality and Managerial Timing Ability: Evidence from Open Market Repurchase Announcements
(with Theos Evgeniou, Theo Vermaelen and Ling Yue), The Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 57(2) (2022), 704-760.
Theory and evidence that managerial market timing ability is related to firm’s centrality in the input-output trade flow network.
Abstract
Abstract
We document that long-run excess returns following announcements of share buyback authorizations and insider purchases are a U-shape function of firm centrality in the input-output trade flow network. These results conform to a model of investors endowed with a large but finite capacity for analyzing firms. Additional links weaken insiders’ informational advantage in peripheral firms (simple firms whose cash flows depend on few economic links) provided investors’ capacity is large enough, but eventually amplify that advantage in central firms (firms with many links) due to investors’ limited capacity. These findings shed light on the sources of managerial market timing ability.
Noise Traders Incarnate: Describing a Realistic Noise Trading Process
(with Daniel Schmidt) The Journal of Financial Markets 54 (2021), 100618.
Retail trades look a lot like noise trades. We use them to estimate a realistic process for noise trading to help theorists calibrate their models.
Abstract | Internet Appendix
Abstract
We estimate a realistic process for noise trading to help theorists derive predictions from noisy rational expectations models. We characterize the trades of individual investors, who are natural candidates for the role of noise traders because their trades are weakly correlated with fundamentals, in line with how such models define noise trading. Data from a retail brokerage house, small and price-improved trades in TAQ, and flows to retail mutual funds yield consistent estimates. The properties of noise trading are highly sensitive to the frequency considered, with the common assumption of i.i.d.-normal noise appropriate only at monthly and lower frequencies.
Glued to the TV: Distracted Noise Traders and Stock Market Liquidity
(with Daniel Schmidt) The Journal of Finance, (2020), 75(2), 1083-1133.
Noise traders suffer from limited attention. When they are distracted by sensational news exogenous to the stock market, trading activity, liquidity, and volatility decrease, and prices reverse less, as predicted by theory. We discuss the evolution of these outcomes over time and the influence of technological changes.
Abstract | Internet Appendix| INSEAD Knowledge article
Abstract
We study the impact of noise traders’ limited attention on financial markets. We exploit episodes of sensational news (exogenous to the market) that distract noise traders. On “distraction days”, trading activity, liquidity, and volatility decrease, and prices reverse less among stocks owned predominantly by noise traders. These outcomes contrast sharply with those that result from the inattention of informed speculators and market makers, and are consistent with noise traders mitigating adverse selection risk. We discuss the evolution of these outcomes over time and the influence of technological changes.
Learning from Stock Prices and Economic Growth
The Review of Financial Studies, (2014), 27(10), 2998-3059.
A model of information acquisition, signaling through prices, capital allocation and economic growth. The economy’s growth is characterized by rising capital efficiency, total factor productivity, industrial specialization, stock trading intensity and idiosyncratic stock return volatility. The model is calibrated, and used to analyze the growth impact of two common forms of investor irrationality, overconfidence and inattention.
Abstract
Abstract
A competitive stock market is embedded into a neoclassical growth economy to analyze the interplay between the acquisition of information about firms, its partial revelation through stock prices, capital allocation and income. The stock market allows investors to share their costly private signals in a cost-effective incentive-compatible way. It contributes to economic growth by raising total factor productivity (TFP). A calibration indicates the effect on TFP to be large but that on income to be modest. Several predictions on the evolution of real and financial variables are derived, including capital efficiency. Finally, the growth impact of two common forms of investor irrationality, overconfidence and inattention, are analyzed.
Does Media Coverage of Stocks Affect Mutual Funds’ Trading and Performance
(with Lily Fang and Lu Zheng) The Review of Financial Studies, (2014), 27(12), 3441-3466.
Mutual fund vary in their propensity to trade stocks covered in the mass-media. This propensity is persistent, and negatively related to future fund performance. These results suggest that professional investors are subject to limited attention, which harms their investment performance.
Abstract
Abstract
We study the relation between mutual fund trades and mass-media coverage of stocks. We find that funds exhibit persistent differences in their propensity to buy media-covered stocks. Moreover, this propensity is negatively related to their future performance. Funds in the highest propensity decile underperform funds in the lowest propensity decile by 1.1% to 2.8% per year. These results do not extend to fund sells, likely due to funds' inability to sell short. Overall, the findings suggest that professional investors are subject to limited attention.
The Media and the Diffusion of Information in Financial Markets: Evidence from Newspaper Strikes
The Journal of Finance 69(5) (2014), 2007–2043.
Evidence that the media help propagate news. On newspaper strike days, trading volume, the dispersion of stock returns and their intraday volatility all fall.
Abstract| Forbes article
Abstract
The media are increasingly recognized as key players in financial markets. I investigate their causal impact on trading and price by examining national newspaper strikes in several countries. Trading volume falls 12% on strike days.The dispersion of stock returns and their intraday volatility are reduced by 7%, while aggregate returns are unaffected. Moreover, an analysis of return predictability indicates that newspapers propagate news from the previous day. These findings demonstrate that the media contribute to the efficiency of the stock market by improving the dissemination of information among investors and its incorporation into stock prices.
Do Demand Curves for Currencies Slope Down? Evidence from the MSCI Global Index Change
(with Harald Hau and Massimo Massa), The Review of Financial Studies 23(4) (2010), 1681-1717.
Evidence that exogenous global equity flows move exchange rates.
Abstract
Abstract
Traditional portfolio balance theory derives a downward sloping currency demand function from limited international asset substitutability. Historically, this theory enjoyed little empirical support. We provide direct evidence by examining the exchange rate effect of a major redefinition of the MSCI global equity index in 2001 and 2002. The index redefinition implied large changes in the representation of different countries in the MSCI world index and therefore produced strong exogenous equity flows by index funds. Our event study reveals that countries with a relatively increasing equity representation experienced a relative currency appreciation upon announcement of the index change. Moreover, it shows that uninformative shocks can propagate from one asset class to another.
Product Market Competition, Insider Trading and Stock Market Efficiency
The Journal of Finance 65(1) (2010) (lead article).
Winner of the Smith Breeden Prize (Distinguished Paper) for the best paper published in the Journal of Finance in 2010.
Competition in firms’ product markets influences their trading in equity markets as firms use their monopoly power to insulate their profits (theory and evidence).
Abstract | Erratum
Abstract
How does competition in firms' product markets influence their behavior in equity markets? Do product market imperfections spread to equity markets? I examine these questions in a noisy rational expectations model in which firms operate under monopolistic competition while their shares trade in perfectly competitive markets. Firms use their monopoly power to pass on shocks to customers, thereby insulating their profits. This encourages stock trading, expedites the capitalization of private information into prices and improves the allocation of capital. Several implications are derived and tested.
The Tradeoff between Risk Sharing and Information Production in Financial Markets
The Journal of Economic Theory, 145(1) (2010), 124-155.
The production of information in financial markets is limited by the extent of risk sharing: the benefit of private information, unlike its cost, rises with the scale of investment, so a more widely-held stock is less actively researched.
Abstract
Abstract
We show that the production of information in financial markets is limited by the extent of risk sharing. The wider a stock's investor base, the smaller the risk borne by each shareholder and the less valuable information. A firm which expands its investor base without raising capital affects its information environment through three channels: (i) it induces incumbent shareholders to reduce their research effort as a result of improved risk sharing, (ii) it attracts potentially informed investors, and (iii) it may modify the composition of the base in terms of risk tolerance or liquidity trading. These results have implications for individual firms and the market as a whole.
Media Coverage and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns
(with Lily Fang), The Journal of Finance, 64(5) (2009), 2023-2052.
Winner of the Smith Breeden Prize (Distinguished Paper) for the best paper published in the Journal of Finance in 2009.
Evidence that stocks with no media coverage earn higher returns than stocks with high media coverage, suggesting that the breadth of information dissemination matters to stock returns.
Abstract| INSEAD Knowledge article
Abstract
By reaching a broad population of investors, mass media can alleviate informational frictions and affect security pricing even if it does not supply genuine news. We investigate this hypothesis by studying the cross-sectional relation between media coverage and expected stock returns. We find that stocks with no media coverage earn higher returns than stocks with high media coverage even after controlling for well-known risk factors. These results are more pronounced among small stocks and stocks with high individual ownership, low analyst following, and high idiosyncratic volatility. Our findings suggest that the breadth of information dissemination affects stock returns.
Information vs. Entry Costs: What Explains U.S. Stock Market Evolution
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 40(3) (2005), 563-594.
A falling information cost (the cost of collecting information about the market) cannot explain the observed long term increase in stock market participation and other facts, unlike a falling entry cost (all other costs, including commissions and fees).
Abstract
Abstract
I investigate whether changes in stock market participation costs can explain the long term increase in the number of U.S. stockholders. I separate these costs into two components, an information cost (the cost of collecting information about the market) and an entry cost (all other costs, including commissions and fees). I disentangle their general equilibrium implications in a noisy rational expectations economy. A falling information cost cannot explain the observed increase in stock market participation, unlike a falling entry cost. In addition, a falling entry cost accounts for several other features of the U.S. economy, (i) the falling equity premium, (ii) rising return variances and (iii) the boom in passive investing relative to active investing.
Wealth, Information Acquisition and Portfolio Choice
Review of Financial Studies, 17(3) (2004), 879-914. Erratum
An approximate solution to a Grossman-Stiglitz economy with wealth effects. Because information generates increasing returns, decreasing absolute risk aversion and the availability of costly information explain why wealthier households invest a larger fraction of their wealth in risky assets.
Abstract | Erratum
Abstract
I solve (with an approximation) a Grossman-Stiglitz economy under general preferences, thus allowing for wealth effects. Because information generates increasing returns, decreasing absolute risk aversion, in conjunction with the availability of costly information, are sufficient to explain why wealthier households invest a larger fraction of their wealth in risky assets. One no longer needs to resort to decreasing relative risk aversion, an empirically questionable assumption. Furthermore, I show how to distinguish empirically between these two explanations. Finally, I find that the availability of costly information exacerbates wealth inequalities.
Optimal Portfolios of Foreign Currencies
(with Jamil Baz, Francis Breedon and Vasant Naik) Journal of Portfolio Management, Fall 2001.
How to form portfolios of currencies that benefit from the forward bias and trade off risk and return optimally. Portfolios returns have a better Sharpe ratio than Treasury indices and are uncorrelated with major fixed-income and equity indexes.
Abstract
Abstract
We show how an investor can form portfolios of currencies that benefit from the forward bias and that trade off risk and return optimally. Applying a mean-variance analysis under the assumption that exchange rates behave as random walks leads to portfolio weights that are stable over time without resorting to exogenous constraints on weights. Optimal currency portfolios invested in the German deutschemark, the Japanese yen, the British pound, and the Swiss franc with the U.S. dollar as the risk-free asset generate an average excess return of 2.79% per year over the period 1989 through 1999. The Sharpe ratio on these returns is better than that on a U.S. Treasury index and that on a global Treasury index (unhedged for currency risk). Moreover, the returns are uncorrelated with major fixed-income and equity indexes. These findings suggest that the methodology can provide a useful benchmark for fund managers interested in optimal currency overlays.
The Role of Media in Financial Decision-Making
(with Ken Ahern), forthcoming in the Handbook of Financial Decision Making (Elgar Publishing).
A review of the role of the financial media in financial markets, covering theory, evidence, and future avenues of research.
Abstract
Abstract
The financial media plays a critical role in financial markets as an information intermediary between information sources and information users. This chapter reviews the literature on the role of the media for financial decision-making, using a broad definition of media based on three key functions: 1) facilitating access to information, 2) filtering information, and 3) creating new information. Though these functions span a diverse set of organizations including search platforms, social media, and traditional print media, a common theme emerges from the literature: the media improves financial-decision making, on average. Markets are more efficient, investors earn higher returns, and firms have lower costs. We also discuss the negative effects of media, including herding and overreaction, as well as suggest future avenues of research
Dynamics of Swaps Spreads: A Cross-Country Study
(with J. Baz, D. Mendez-Vives, D. Munves and V. Naik), Lehman Brothers Analytical Research Series, 1999.
An investigation of the empirical behaviour of swap spreads in Germany, Britain and the US over 1994-1999.
Abstract
Abstract
We examine the empirical behaviour of swap spreads in Germany, Britain and the US over the last five years. Swap spreads of three maturities (2-, 5-and 10-year) are considered. The movements of swap spreads are explained using the movements in credit spreads, Libor-gc spreads, the shape of the government curve and returns on equity market indices. We document evidence for a regime shift in the dynamics of swap spreads over the last 12-15 months. The level and persistence of spreads and the volatility of changes in spreads are markedly higher now.
Moreover, their sensitivity to credit spreads and the cross-country correlation in spread changes have increased significantly. An increase in investor and dealer risk aversion, the reduction in leverage of risk capital employed by relative-value hedge funds (which were typical receivers on swaps), a perception of increased risk in asset markets and increases in spread volatility induced by lower liquidity could be cited as factors that have contributed to the recent spread widening.
Euro-area swap spreads continue to remain at half the levels of their British and US counterparts. Lower credit spreads in Europe and lower Libor-gc spreads may partly explain this feature. The level of issuance of credit bonds in Europe, the risk appetite of dealers and hedge funds, the shrinking supply of Treasury securities in the US, the performance of global (especially US) equity markets and cyclical movements in the US economy relative to the European economy are likely to be the key drivers of swap spreads in the near-to-intermediate term.