Publications
Carr, J., Marie, O., and Vujić, S. (2021). Education and Crime: What we know and where do we go?, P. Buonanno, P. Vanin and J. F. Vargas (Eds.). A Modern Guide to Economics of Crime, Edward Elgar Publishing, Forthcoming.
Working Papers
Carr, J., Clifton-Sprigg, J., James, J., and Vujić, S. (2020). Love thy Neighbour? Brexit and Hate Crime. IZA Working Paper 13902. https://ftp.iza.org/dp13902.pdf
Abstract: We provide causal evidence of the impact of the Brexit referendum vote on hate crime in the United Kingdom (UK). Using various data sources, including unique data collected from the UK Police Forces by Freedom of Information (FOI) requests, and various estimation methods (difference-in-differences, event-study analysis and synthetic control methods), we find that the Brexit referendum led to an increase in hate crime by around 15-25%. This effect was concentrated in the first quarter after the referendum and was larger in areas that voted to leave the European Union (EU). We also provide evidence against the hypotheses that this was due to victims' greater willingness to report crimes or due to changes in police behaviour and perceptions of the victims. We also present suggestive evidence that the media and social media played a small but significant role in the increase in hate crime.
Carr, J., Clifton-Sprigg, J., James, J., and Vujić, S. (2021). Love in the Time of Covid: Hate Crimes Against East Asians. Bath Working Paper 90/22. https://purehost.bath.ac.uk/ws/portalfiles/portal/244943109/COVID_and_Hate_Crime_WP.pdf
Abstract: We provide evidence of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on racial hate crime in England and Wales. Using various data sources, including unique data collected from UK Police Forces by Freedom of Information (FOI) requests, and an event study method and regression discontinuity design we find that racial hate crime against East Asians increased by an average 50% beginning in early February through the end of 2020. This effect was greatest in weeks leading up to the first national lockdown in the U.K. with evidence that the shock was lower during the lockdown before increasing again in the summer 2020. We present evidence that hate crime increased as COVID-19 cases in China increased and following announcements from the government which may signal that China or Chinese individuals pose a public health risk to the U.K., indicating that protectionism played an important role in the observed hate crime spike.
Works in Progress
Carr, J. (2022). The effect of anti-racism protests on racial hate crime : Evidence from 2020 BLM protests.
Abstract: We provide evidence of the impact of protests following the death of George Floyd in the United States on anti-Black hate crimes in the U.S. and the U.K. Using an event study design and an augmented local regression discontinuity model we find that racial hate crimes committed against Blacks increased by up to 15 incidents per day in the U.S. and 10 incidents per day in the U.K. In the United States the total effect is an additional 1400 reported anti-black, or an estimated 2460 anti-black hate crimes committed in 2020. This corresponds to a 112 percent increase in the likelihood of victimization. To account for changes in incentives to commit racial hate crime during the coronavirus pandemic we control for anti-Black hate crime using other ethnic groups. The effect was greater in small and medium cities and counties and was more immediate in protest spaces. In addition, we test for mechanisms driving the changes, including retaliation, protectionism, and changes in victim reporting. We attribute the increase in anti-Black hate crime to changes in perceived costs and benefits of committing such a crime due to the protests and that anti-black hate crime is most sensitive to changes in the saliency of police violence against protesters, the arrest or trial of Derek Chauvin and the number of protests held in the previous week.
Balliauw, M., Carr, J., Van Looveren, L., and Vujic, S. (2022). How do international youth transfers in football impact talent development?