Media coverage: Business Standard , Times of India , Indian Express, Scroll.in, Outlook magazine
Abstract: The stubbornly low and declining level of labor force participation rate (LFPR) of Indian women has prompted a great deal of attention with a focus on factors constraining women's labour supply. Using 12 rounds of a high frequency household panel survey, we demonstrate volatility in Indian women's labour market engagement, as they exit and (re)enter the labor force multiple times over a short period for reasons unrelated to marriage, child-birth, or change in household income. We demonstrate how these frequent transitions exacerbate the issue of measurement of female LFPR. Women elsewhere in the world face a "motherhood penalty" in the form of adverse labour market outcomes after the first childbirth. We evaluate the motherhood penalty in the Indian context and find that mothers with new children have a lower base level of LFPR, but there is no sharp decline around the time of childbirth. Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition of determinants of female LFPR suggests that none of the total fall in our study period is explained by a change in supply-side demographic characteristics. We suggest that frequent transitions, as well as fall in LFPR, are consistent with the demand-side constraints, viz., that women's participation is falling due unavailability of steady gainful employment. The high unemployment rate and industry-wise composition of total employment provide suggestive evidence that women's participation is falling as women are likely to be displaced from employment by male workers. We show that women's employment is likely to suffer more than men's due to negative economic shocks, as was seen during the fallout of demonetisation of 86 percent of Indian currency in 2016. Our analysis contests the prominent narrative that women are voluntarily dropping out of the labor force due to an increase in household income and conservative social norms. Our results suggest that India needs to focus more on creating jobs for women to retain them in the labor force.
Abstract: A large body of literature attributes the trend of declining female labor force participation rate (FLFPR) in India since 2004-05 on supply-side factors. In this paper, we begin by showing that the contribution of supply-side factors in the FLFPR decline has been reducing over time such that it hardly explains any of the decline observed since 2011-12. We estimate the contribution of structural transformation and labor demand in the Indian economy in explaining the declining FLFPR. For identification, we use the shift-share instrument as the IV for exogenous change in local labor demand. We find that female employment is highly responsive to the labor demand, but not male employment. Thus, women have borne the brunt of the jobless growth period from 2004-05 onwards. Our analysis indicates that India needs to focus on creating rural non-farm jobs to boost the female LFPR.
Abstract: We study how violence breaks down markets and inflicts costs for large sections of society. Since the 2010s, India has witnessed a significant rise in violent attacks targeting individuals, mostly Muslims, suspected of involvement in cow slaughter by vigilante groups, disrupting cattle markets. Consequently, rural households' inability to sell unproductive cattle increased cattle abandonment and led to unintended social costs, including the loss of human lives. We compile a novel dataset using a high-frequency panel of households, road accident statistics, media reports on vigilante violence, and historical data on Hindu-Muslim conflicts in India. By leveraging the temporal and spatial variations in violence, we estimate more than a 10 percent decline in cattle holdings among households in affected regions with an event study design. We identify the effect of this violence on human deaths and injuries due to at least a 200% increase in road accidents due to collisions with abandoned stray cattle. With primary survey data, we find that farmers self-report severe crop damage by stray cattle in regions experiencing violence.
Hiding in Labour Data, A Tale of Economic Distress , Hindustan Times, 2025 (with Maitreesh Ghatak and Mrinalini Jha)