About me

Hello, I am Jinting Guo, a Ph.D. candidate in Economics at Goethe University Frankfurt. I have worked as a graduate research assistant at Goethe University (with Prof. Binder) and at the SAFE research center (with Prof. Laudenbach), as well as a Ph.D. intern at the Deutsche Bundesbank in the Monetary Policy and Analysis Department. 

My research interests lie at the intersection of macroeconomics, behavioral economics, and macroeconometrics, with a particular focus on expectation formation, DSGE modeling, and consumption dynamics.

I am on the Economics Job Market 2025/2026. 

Working papers

On the Identification of Diagnostic Expectations: Econometric Insights from DSGE Models (JMP)

Abstract: This paper provides the first econometric evidence for diagnostic expectations (DE) in DSGE models. Using the identification framework of Qu and Tkachenko (2017),  I show that DE generate dynamics unreplicable under rational expectations (RE), with no RE parameterization capable of matching the autocovariance implied by DE. Consequently, DE are not observationally equivalent to RE and constitute an endogenous source of macroeconomic fluctuations, distinct from both structural frictions and exogenous shocks. From an econometric perspective, DE preserve overall model identification but weaken the identification of shock variances. To ensure robust conclusions across estimation methods and equilibrium conditions, I extend Bayesian estimation with Sequential Monte Carlo sampling to the indeterminacy domain. These findings advance the econometric study of expectations and highlight the macroeconomic relevance of diagnostic beliefs.

Presented at: RCEA Bayesian Econometrics Workshop, Spain (June, 2025), Annual Conference of the International Association for Applied Econometrics, Italy (June, 2025), Frankfurt Summer School (August, 2025), European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (forthcoming)

Consumption Dynamics under Diagnostic Expectation, with Yulei Luo and Penghui Yin

Abstract: Household survey data show that positive income shocks lead to a positive change in current consumption, but a negative change in future consumption. These empirical results contradict the predictions of the standard rational expectations-permanent income hypothesis model in which the change in current consumption only depends on unpredictable income shocks. To explain this puzzling consumption pattern, we study a behavioral permanent income hypothesis model under diagnostic expectations, and show that our model with a realistic two-component income process has the potential to generate the observed consumption dynamics. Finally, we show that although the welfare losses due to distorted beliefs are small, diagnostic expectations can have important implications for governments’ stimulus fiscal policies.