About me

Hello, I am Jinting Guo, a Ph.D. candidate in Economics at Goethe University Frankfurt. I have worked as a graduate research assistant at Goethe University and the SAFE Research Center, as well as a Ph.D. intern in the Monetary Policy and Analysis Department at the Deutsche Bundesbank. My primary supervisor is Prof. Michael Binder, and my secondary supervisor is Prof. Alexander Meyer-Gohde.

My research interests lie at the intersection of macroeconomics, macroeconometrics, and behavioral economics, with a particular focus on expectation formation, attention, and information frictions. My methodological expertise includes Bayesian estimation of DSGE models and structural VARs.

I am particularly interested in research and policy roles in academia and central banking that align with my research interests and expertise. I would be happy to discuss potential opportunities. 

Working papers

On the Identification of Diagnostic Expectations: Econometric Insights from DSGE Models (JMP)

(Current version: May, 2026)

Abstract: This paper shows that diagnostic expectations (DE) and rational expectations (RE) are not observationally equivalent in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Using the frequency-domain framework of Qu and Tkachenko (2012, 2017), I show that no RE parameterization yields the DE-implied autocovariance structure of the macroeconomic observables considered in either small- or medium-scale DSGE models, even after structural frictions and shock processes are reparameterized. Incorporating DE preserves overall identification but weakens the identification of shock variances. In the medium-scale model, among the frictions, wage rigidity emerges as most important for generating the benchmark DE model dynamics.

Presented at: RCEA Bayesian Econometrics Workshop (June, 2025), Annual Conference of the International Association for Applied Econometrics (June, 2025), Frankfurt Summer School (August, 2025), European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (December, 2025), University of Liaoning (January, 2026), University of Namur (February, 2026), Central European University (April, 2026), Deutsche Bundesbank (June, 2026), National Bank of Slovakia (September, 2026)

Consumption Dynamics and Welfare Implications under Diagnostic Expectations, with Yulei Luo and Penghui Yin

(Current version: March, 2026; Under review)

Abstract: Using household survey data, we document that individuals overreact to new information about personal income and respond negatively to lagged information, a pattern consistent with Diagnostic Expectations (DE). We incorporate this behavioral distortion into a standard certainty-equivalent permanent-income model with incomplete information and show that it accounts for the overreaction-reversal pattern of consumption following income shocks. We then derive the model’s welfare and policy implications and show that the same mechanism extends to a standard buffer-stock saving environment. Finally, we establish an observational equivalence between DE and robustness, pointing to a deeper link between behavioral belief distortions and concerns about model misspecification. 

Media Coverage and Macroeconomic Dynamics: Evidence from a Structural VAR, with Shu Wang

(Current version: October, 2026; First draft)

Work in Progress:

Project on subjective expectations, with Nayeon Kang