About me

Hello, I am Jinting Guo, a Ph.D. candidate in Economics at Goethe University Frankfurt. I have worked as a graduate research assistant at Goethe University (with Prof. Binder) and at the SAFE research center (with Prof. Laudenbach), as well as a Ph.D. intern at the Deutsche Bundesbank in the Monetary Policy and Analysis Department. 

My research interests lie at the intersection of macroeconomics, behavioral economics, and macroeconometrics, with a particular focus on expectation formation, DSGE modeling, and consumption dynamics.

I am on the Economics Job Market 2025/2026. 

Working papers

On the Identification of Diagnostic Expectations: Econometric Insights from DSGE Models (JMP)

Reject and Resubmit, Journal of Applied Econometrics (New draft coming soon)

Abstract: This paper provides the first econometric evidence for diagnostic expectations (DE) in DSGE models. Using the identification framework of Qu and Tkachenko (2017),  I show that DE generate dynamics unreplicable under rational expectations (RE), with no RE parameterization capable of matching the autocovariance implied by DE. Consequently, DE are not observationally equivalent to RE and constitute an endogenous source of macroeconomic fluctuations, distinct from both structural frictions and exogenous shocks. From an econometric perspective, DE preserve overall model identification but weaken the identification of shock variances. To ensure robust conclusions across equilibrium conditions, I extend Bayesian estimation with Sequential Monte Carlo sampling to the indeterminacy domain. These findings advance the econometric study of expectations and highlight the macroeconomic relevance of diagnostic beliefs.

Presented at: RCEA Bayesian Econometrics Workshop (June, 2025), Annual Conference of the International Association for Applied Econometrics (June, 2025), Frankfurt Summer School (August, 2025), European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society (December, 2025)

Consumption Dynamics and Welfare Implications under Diagnostic Expectations, with Yulei Luo and Penghui Yin

(New draft coming soon)

Abstract: Using household survey data, we document that individuals overreact to new information regarding personal income while reacting negatively to lagged information, a pattern consistent with Diagnostic Expectations (DE). We incorporate this behavioral friction into a standard permanent income hypothesis (PIH) model with incomplete information. The resulting framework successfully replicates the empirical overreaction-reversal dynamics of consumption following income shocks. We further explore the distinct welfare and policy implications of this behavioral distortion. Finally, we demonstrate an observational equivalence between DE and robustness, suggesting a deep link between behavioral overreaction and the rational fear of model misspecification. 

Work in Progress:

Project on sVAR, with Shu Wang 

Project on subjective expectations, with Nayeon Kang