Global climate policy has become increasingly uneven, with many host countries of U.S. multinationals adopting stricter climate laws than the United States. We show that:
(1) Greater foreign regulatory exposure leads U.S. firms to re-shore pollution-intensive activity, increasing domestic greenhouse-gas emissions by 0.8% and toxic releases by 7%.
(2) Firms headquartered in Democratic-leaning states further redirect this activity to plants in Republican-leaning states, where regulatory pressure is weaker.
(3) Managers simultaneously greenwash by downplaying overseas climate risks in earnings calls, and well-intentioned sustainable lenders and financial analysts inadvertently amplify both reshoring and opacity.
(4) The resulting domestic pollution worsens air quality and elevates respiratory disease rates, highlighting the substantial public-health costs created by fragmented global climate policy.
Presented at: University of Maryland, Renmin University of China, MFA 2026, WFA 2026 (scheduled), AIB 2026 (scheduled)