Modeling and Predicting the Spread of Lycorma Delicatula

This is my Honors Project for my Honors Diploma at Jamestown High School. I have always been passionate about environmental science, and I've learned a lot about invasive species in programs like Nature Camp and Envirothon. I decided to pursue this topic after reading news articles concerning the effect of the invasive species, the spotted lanternfly, on Pennsylvania's agriculture and ecosystem.

abstract

The invasive spotted lanternfly, Lycorma delicatula, was introduced to Berks County Pennsylvania in September 2014. Since then, it has spread to over 4.5 million acres in Pennsylvania as well as locations in other states in the Eastern United States. We used a diffusion equation to model the spread of the species and predict its growth if no control mechanism is implemented. The invasion rate was estimated using available data of infected areas and statistical tools.

purpose

The goal is to be able to accurately predict the spread of the Spotted Lanternfly using a mathematical model. With proper predictions of dispersal, preventative measures may be taken and other studies and actions can be conducted to minimize the impact.

Conclusion

Limited public distribution data was used to estimate the spatial spreading speed of SLF, and the data matched with the classical diffusion model with a high degree of confidence. Our results predict that the speed of spread is about 12-14 km per year; the SLF has now advanced 50 km from the initial point in Pennsylvania. Using this invasion rate, the SLF is predicted to reach Baltimore, MD (13 km from the initial point) in 5 years.

The theoretical prediction given here can be tested and validated through future SLF survey data. While our data fits with diffusion equation extremely well, it was calculated for only a small area in southeast Pennsylvania, which is geographically quite homogeneous. It is known that spatial heterogeneity, availability of SLF host plants, and climate can affect the invasion speed. Furthermore, the PA Dept. of Agriculture has implemented a quarantine in several counties and other eradication methods. This definitely has an effect on the diffusion of the insect. In the future, the model can be improved by incorporating these factors.