Research
Research
This paper examines the long-term effects of the English Academies Programme on pupils’ labour market outcomes. The programme converted underperforming state schools into academies, which remained publicly funded but were managed by external sponsors with greater autonomy. Using UK administrative data from the Longitudinal Education Outcomes dataset and exploiting the staggered timing of school conversions, this paper employs a heterogeneity-robust diff-in-diff and event-study design. Results show that academisation improved labour market outcomes in early adulthood: earnings begin to rise from ages 19–21, reaching a 4% increase by the late twenties, which pushes the pupils more than a percentile up in the earnings distributions. The policy increased their employment by a week per year in their late twenties and reduced their probability of claiming benefits by up to 7% relative to baseline rates. Gains increase with years of exposure to academisation and over age. They are observed across gender, pupils with different socio-economic and family backgrounds and are larger for schools that experienced more substantial changes in governance. A key channel underlying these effects is increased post-compulsory educational participation and attainment: pupils remain in education longer, are more likely to obtain formal qualifications across academic and vocational tracks, and are less likely to be not in education, employment or training (NEET) between ages 16 and 21. Taken together, the findings provide evidence that targeted, school-level governance reforms implemented during adolescence can generate meaningful and sustained improvements in long-run economic outcomes.
How do macroeconomic conditions at labor market entry shape patterns of intergenerational mobility? We show that while labor market outcomes in adulthood differ by socioeconomic family background, adverse macroeconomic conditions at labor market entry further widen these gaps, as they disproportionately harm those from disadvantaged backgrounds. A one standard deviation increase in the unemployment rate reduces relative intergenerational mobility by around 20%. These effects operate primarily through differential human capital accumulation and occupational sorting. For those from high socioeconomic family backgrounds, adverse economic conditions do not affect occupational choices, increase skill accumulation, and push them to pursue university degrees. In contrast, they push those from low socioeconomic family backgrounds away from high-skill occupations toward elementary occupations, reduce their skill accumulation, and do not increase their likelihood of pursuing university degrees.
We exploit variation in unemployment rates across cohorts and regions in Norway to examine the long-run consequences of entering the labor market during a recession. We find that individual earnings losses are sizable but short-lived, while declines in family earnings are large and persistent. Adverse labor market entry conditions delay marriage and cohabitation, reduce assortative matching, and result in partnerships with lower-earning spouses. Despite substantial and lasting family-level income losses, we find no evidence of spillovers to the next generation, as families adjust fertility timing to mitigate the intergenerational transmission of shocks.
Using a difference-in-discontinuities design, we examine how reforms that extended time in education affected educational attainment and labour market outcomes.
We exploit within-cohort variation in exposure to recessions to estimate the causal effects of economic downturns on the graduate wage premium and early-career earnings trajectories.