Research

Abstract: Despite substantial wage convergence between Black and White workers prior to 1980, the racial wage gap has since stagnated and even widened. This paper examines how much of this widening the occupational task structure accounts for, and whether it operates through shifts in task allocation between the two groups (task sorting) or through changes in the return to tasks (task prices). I find that racial disparities in task allocation have narrowed, reducing the gap. However, I find that this progress has been outpaced by a sharp rise in the Social task price. White men disproportionately benefited from the increased Social task price because Black men still remain underrepresented in Social-intensive occupations. To identify the specific Social tasks behind this price effect, I use machine learning to construct a data-driven task classification. I find that the widening gap is not driven by Coordination-Social tasks, such as management and scheduling, but by Analytical-Social tasks, such as analyzing and interpreting information for others. Together, these results suggest that racially neutral changes in task price are now the central mechanism widening the racial wage gap.

Abstract: This paper evaluates the impact of the pay transparency law on labor outcomes. We use an equilibrium model with subjective beliefs to illustrate how wage beliefs affect job search behavior and outcomes. Under the assumptions that women have lower wage beliefs than comparable men and that more wage information in job postings reduces the gender gap in wage beliefs, the model predicts that the pay transparency law will decrease the gender wage gap. Using CPS data and a difference-in-differences design, we find that the law modestly reduced overall wages--driven primarily by a decline in male wages among employer stayers. Consistent with the model, the gender wage gap narrowed sharply among employer changers, falling from 17.5% to 3.5%. This decline was primarily driven by rising female wages; male wages also fell modestly, though the decline was not statistically significant. Despite a noticeable effect on the gender wage gap for job changers, pay transparency did not affect the gender gap in job mobility, employment, or labor force participation.

Abstract: This paper empirically examines whether Black-White and Hispanic-White occupational segregation exhibits tipping behavior, where White workers exit an occupation once the minority employment share crosses a ``tipping point''. Using Census and American Community Survey data from 1980 to 2020, I estimate candidate tipping points with the fixed-point procedure of Card et al. (2008). Only one of eight group-by-decade combinations produces a discontinuity. The 1980 Hispanic candidate tipping points average 7.1 percent. Just above the points, non-Hispanic White employment growth over the following decade is lower by 10.4 percentage points of base-year employment. Black candidate points in every decade, and Hispanic points in later decades, give smaller estimates that are not consistent across sample splits. This suggests that tipping is not a general feature of racial and ethnic occupational segregation.

Abstract: Utilizing the launch of the China–Korea free trade agreement (FTA) as an exogenous event, this study analyzes the impact of increased trade with China on local labor markets in Korea. In particular, we employ the method developed by Pierce and Schott (2016, 2020), who calculate changes in tariff rates for each region to analyze the effects of trade flows on local labor markets. While the FTA does not significantly affect overall employment, we find compositional shifts: employment among male, routine, and less-educated workers significantly increases in regions more exposed to import tariff reductions. We do not find statistically significant changes in employment by job type.

Abstract: In Washington State, drivers under 70 years old may renew their licenses online, but those 70 and older must renew in person. Using administrative records covering the universe of Washington driver’s license renewals from 2005 to 2023, we measure a significant decrease in the share of drivers renewing their licenses at age 70 compared to individuals in their 60s. We exploit this discontinuity, along with variation in driving distance to the nearest licensing office, to ask whether the in-person renewal requirement screens out riskier drivers or simply those for whom a trip to the office is most costly.